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WAFSOPSG/5-WP/14
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International Civil Aviation Organization
WORKING PAPER / WAFSOPSG/5-WP/14
23/6/09

WORLD AREA FORECAST SYSTEM OPERATIONS GROUP (WAFSOPSG)

FIFTH MEETING

Paris, France, 16 to 18 September 2009

Agenda Item / 6: / Development of the WAFS
6.1: / Improved GRIB 2 forecasts for convective clouds, icing and turbulence

UPDATE ON THE IMPROVED GRIB 2 FORECASTS FOR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS, ICING AND TURBULENCE

(Presented by the WAFC Provider States)

SUMMARY
This working paper provides an update on the improved GRIB 2 WAFS forecasts for icing, turbulence and CB clouds. The working paper should be read in conjunction with a Progress Report to WP/14 prepared by the WAFC Provider States and available on the WAFSOPSG website.

1.  INTRODUCTION

1.1  The WAFSOPSG/4 Meeting formulated three conclusion (4/14, 4/16 and 4/17) and one decision (4/15) related to the development and introduction of gridded forecasts of icing, turbulence and cumulonimbus clouds.

2.  discussion

2.1  The group will be pleased to note that the WAFC Provider States have prepared a progress report outlining the steps taken to develop these new gridded forecasts further. The progress report (to accompany this working paper) is available on the WAFSOPSG website at:

http://www2.icao.int/en/anb/met-aim/met/wafsopsg/WAFSOPSG%20Meeting%20Metadata/Forms/WAFSOPSG5%20WPs.aspx

2.2  The progress report includes details of the development and visualisation of the new gridded forecasts, summarises verification that has been undertaken and outlines WAFC coordination activities undertaken in view of ensuring that the two WAFCs are aligned. In addition, the progress report includes a guidance document on the intended use of the gridded WAFS forecasts for icing, turbulence and CB clouds in flight documentation, and recommends a web-based training package targeted at fostering the future implementation of the gridded forecasts amongst WAFS users.

2.3  The WAFC Provider States are intending to generate an information paper for the WAFSOPSG/5 Meeting summarising the key points to arise a WAFC Science Coordination Meeting held in Washington DC in April 2009, and attended by ICAO, WMO and IATA, amongst other. It is hoped that the IP will allow the group to appreciate further the discussions that have taken place during the development of the gridded forecasts for icing, turbulence and CB clouds.

3.  CONCLUSIONS

3.1  In view of the detail contained within the progress report accompanying this working paper, and the information paper to be presented to the WAFSOPSG/5 Meeting by the WAFC Provider States, the group is invited to conclude that:

a)  the ongoing development and verification of gridded (GRIB 2) forecasts for icing, turbulence and CB clouds is progressing as required – including the generation of “high at-a-glance” significant weather (HG-SIGWX) charts;

b)  the guidance document presented by the WAFCs is sufficient, at this time, to foster the future implementation of these gridded products amongst WAFS users; and

c)  the training proposal presented by the WAFCs is sufficient to meet the needs of States and WAFS users.

3.2  Accordingly, the group is invited to formulate the following draft decisions and conclusion:

Decision 5/.. – Development of gridded WAFS forecasts for icing, turbulence and CB clouds
That, the ongoing development, visualisation and verification of WAFS forecasts for icing, turbulence and CB clouds in the GRIB 2 code form is progressing in accordance with expectations
Decision 5/.. – Guidance on the intended use of gridded WAFS forecasts for icing, turbulence and CB clouds in flight documentation
That, the guidance document proposals contained in Appendix[1]… to this report be endorsed.
Note: The Secretary is invited to make this guidance document available on the WAFSOPSG website by 31 December 2009.
Conclusion 5/.. – Training for States and WAFS users on the intended use of the new gridded WAFS forecasts for icing, turbulence and CB clouds
That, in order to foster the future implementation of the gridded WAFS forecasts for icing, turbulence and CB clouds for use in flight planning, the WAFC Provider States, in coordination with ICAO and WMO, proceed with designing a web-based training package.
Note 1.— The web-based training package will be based around a free and open-source e-learning software platform and available to all States and WAFS users; and
Note 2.— The training material is expected to be available on the public Internet in time for WAFSOPSG/6.

4.  ACTION BY THE WAFSOPSG

4.1  The WAFSOPSG is invited to:

a)  note the information contained in this working paper and the accompanying progress report (available via the WAFSOPSG website); and

b)  decide on the draft decisions and conclusion for the groups consideration.

— END —

[1] Guidance available at the WAFSOPSG website as part of the progress report related to WP/14.