The small Gulf States: emerging powers?

It is very tricky and dangerous to question spot – we should aim to theme-spot instead.

The reason for this is you might see a question in the exam, think it is the same as one you have practiced, and regurgitate it, but subtle differences in the focus of the question might mean you do badly against the mark scheme.

What do we know?

There will be 3 questions, with a total of 40 potential marks.

In general they will follow an issues analysis sequence:

1)Introductory question - what’s the issue / problem? Opportunities / challenges, how did the situation develop etc.

2)Assessment / evaluation looking at impacts, consequences, threats, needs etc.

3)Discursive question - focussing on the future, management, role of different players, options or a range of actions.

1) Introductory question - what’s the issue / problem? Opportunities / challenges, how did the situation develop? etc.

- To what extent could we class the Gulf States as superpowers?

- Assess the Gulf States current position on the global spectrum of economic and human development?

- Explain the factors that have led to the Gulf States being called emerging powers . (Which factors were most important?)

- To what extent do the Gulf States have global economic and political power?

2) Assessment / evaluation looking at impacts, consequences, threats, needs etc.

- Evaluate the threats that might restrict further economic development in the small Gulf States

- Assess the opportunities and threats to further economic development in the Gulf States

- Identify the factors which might prevent greater economic development in the Gulf States

- Assess the political and environmental risks of continued rapid growth in the Gulf States.

-Examine/Evaluate the global costs and benefits of the Gulf States rising status

-Evaluate the Gulf States role in a multi-polar system in the 21st century.

-Examine the factors which might destabilise the Gulf States superpower status in the future.

3)Discursive question focussing on the future, management, role of different players, options or a range of actions.

To what extent is future growth sustainable?

- Assess the human, environmental and economic impacts of continued growth and development in the Gulf States

- To what extent is the rise of the Gulf States dominance sustainable?

Country profiling

Population / Size / GDP per capita ($ ‘000) / Hydrocarbon revenues per person ($ ‘000) / Hydrocarbon revenue as a % of GDP / HDI / Export partners and % (CIA factbook) / Import partners and % (CIA factbook) / Transnational issues (CIA factbook) / Military expenditure as a % of GDP (CIA factbook) / Main religion
Kuwait
Bahrain
Qatar
United Arab Emirates
Oman

Use CIA world fact book to complete this table

Who are the key players in the issue: The Small Gulf States: Emerging powers?

Player / Description of group / Why are they a key player?
GulfState governments
Gulf state residents
Migrant workers
BRICs eg China
USA government
Oil companies
UN
WTO
TNCs
G20
Islamic leaders
Iran, Iraq
Environmentalists

Refer to your notes, text book, internet and RESOURCE BOOK when filling in this table.

Superpower criteria – find evidence for The Gulf States

Economic Power

Military Power

Cultural Power

Geographical Power – size and population

Resources: natural and human

Religion

EXTRA TASK – List and rank how the power of the small gulf states may be under threat!

QUESTION - Assess the Gulf States’ current position on the global spectrum of economic and human development.

(12 marks)

Indicative content

Human – HDI and poverty, role of women, numbers in education

Economic - GDP and hydrocarbon revenue,

Level of diversification

Budget surplus and investment

Links to higher education, R and D

Hub, Free Trade zones to encourage investment, FDI

Conditions for foreign born construction workers

Synoptic linkages:

Reference to GDP etc

Reference to development models, such as Rostow or Clark-Fisher; either could provide structure to an answer

Criteria for a superpower – military, economic, cultural, geographical power

Emerging powers – what do they share? (pg 107)

Nature and control of trade (pg 117)

Superpower futures – impact on resources (pg 121), tensions (pg 128)

Level / Mark / Descriptor
Level 1 / 1-4 / Does not differentiate between social and economic development. States some indicators but unclear on their meaning in relation to spectrum of development. May take a difficult to justify position. Structure is poor or absent. Explanations are over simplified and lack clarity. Geographical terminology is rarely used with accuracy. There are frequent grammar, punctuation and spelling errors.
Level 2 / 5-8 / Mentions both social and economic development / indicators, and has some range. Identifies Gulf States level of development in satisfactory way; may mention other countries by comparison. Structure is satisfactory. Limited reference to wider links. Explanations are clear, but there are areas of less clarity. Geographical terminology is used with some accuracy. There are some grammar, punctuation and spelling errors.
Level 3 / 9-12 / Differentiates between social and economic indicators and uses a good range. Likely to comment on difficulty of placing Gulf States on the spectrum / contradictory nature of some indicators i.e. an assessment. Structure is good. Explanations are always clear. Synoptic; refers to own research / other countries as a comparison. Geographical terminology is used with accuracy. Grammar, punctuation and spelling errors are very rare.

QUESTION - Assess the political and environmental risks of continued rapid growth in the Gulf States. (14 marks)

Environmental:

Water scarcity

Air pollution

Ecological footprints

Pressure for space – building islands in the sea threatens habitats

Political:

Good candidates will have done some research here and there will be less reliance on the resources. The region has a history on conflict which could reignite. Energy demands could force oil prices up (as in 2007–08) leading to growing pressure on a shrinking resource base and possible conflict. Proximity to Iran/Iraq. Relations with USA.

Synoptic linkages

  • Details of ecological or carbon footprints from Unit 1, or alternative ways of measuring environmental impact.
  • Climate change risks in rapidly developing urban areas from Unit 1.
  • Biodiversity from Unit 3 and examples of impacts.
  • Details of energy or water security issues from Unit 3.
  • Broad concepts such as sustainability could be mentioned, perhaps supported by models.
  • Details from Unit 4 pollution and human health on environmental aspects.

Level / Mark / Descriptor
Level 1 / 1-4 / Structure is poor or absent. Unbalanced towards environmental / political and unclear on risk. Minimal use of the resources. Explanations are over simplified and lack clarity. Geographical terminology is rarely used with accuracy. There are frequent grammar, punctuation and spelling errors.
Level 2 / 5-7 / Structure is satisfactory. Some use of resources; likely to be unbalanced towards environmental or political and more a statement of problems than an assessment of risk. Explanations are clear, but there are areas of less clarity. Geographical terminology is used with some accuracy. There are some grammar, punctuation and spelling errors.
Level 3 / 8-11 / Structure is good. Begins to assess or implied assessment and broadly balanced across political and environmental mental; some use of own knowledge and identifies a range of risks. Some reference to wider links. Explanations are always clear. Geographical terminology is used with accuracy. Grammar, punctuation and spelling errors are rare.
Level 4 / 12-14 / Carefully structured. Clear on risk and balanced across environmental and political; good use of own knowledge that contributes to a genuine assessment. Strong synoptic links. Explanations are always clear. Geographical terminology is used with accuracy. Grammar, punctuation and spelling errors are very rare.

Evaluate the threats that might restrict further economic development in the small Gulf States (12 marks)

Indicative content

Inflation

Labour

Water

Pressure for space

Carbon Dioxide emissions/ecological footprint

Air pollution

Conflicts

Level / Mark / Descriptor
Level 1 / 1-4 / Narrow focus on one or two threats e.g. oil/gas shortage; lack of linkage to economic development and how it might be impacted. May verge on sensationalism. Structure is poor or absent. Explanations are over simplified and lack clarity. Geographical terminology is rarely used with accuracy. There are frequent grammar, punctuation and spelling errors.
Level 2 / 5-8 / Reference to a range of threats with some detail; likely to be variable. Some linkage to economic development. Structure is satisfactory. Some reference to wider links. Explanations are clear, but there are areas of
Level 3 / 9-12 / Detailed reference to a range of threats which are linked to economic development, especially FDI. The threats are evaluated i.e. some are viewed as more significant than others. Structure is good. Explanations are always clear. Synoptic. Geographical terminology is used with accuracy. Grammar, punctuation and spelling errors are very rare.

Question - To what extent could we class the Gulf States as superpowers? (14 marks)

Indicative content

Expect, from good students, a statement of what the criteria might be e.g. power in the form of cultural, military, economic and political influence / geographical reach. Some may offer alternative criteria (soc/eco/env/political/ demographic) – these are acceptable although may be harder to apply.

Expect good students to question ‘superpower’ and substitute emerging power; expect some mention of the BRIC group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Oil rich states…).

Gulf states case is strong in terms of trade, size of its economy, and ability to attract FDI. Also moving towards a position of being a major global consumer of resources, goods – and producer of pollution.

Level / Mark / Descriptor
Level 1 / 1-4 / Structure is poor or absent. Basic ideas, lacks clarity on the concept of a superpower; unbalanced – may focus on some aspects only. Explanations are over simplified and lack clarity. Geographical terminology is rarely used with accuracy. There are frequent grammar, punctuation and spelling errors.
Level 2 / 5-7 / Structure is satisfactory. Some clarity on the idea of a superpower but not in depth; uses some data from the resources to support discussion of some elements of superpower status. Explanations are clear, but there are areas of less clarity. Geographical terminology is used with some accuracy. There are some grammar, punctuation and spelling errors.
Level 3 / 8-11 / Structure is good. Clear exposition of superpowers / emerging powers and reference to some criteria that might be used to judge status. Balanced between criteria. Some reference to wider links. Explanations are always clear. Geographical terminology is used with accuracy. Grammar, punctuation and spelling errors are rare.
Level 4 / 12-14 / Carefully structured, possibly around a set of reference criteria. Detail from the resources and own knowledge. Clear judgements. Strong synoptic links. Explanations are always clear. Geographical terminology is used with accuracy. Grammar, punctuation and spelling errors are very rare.

Interesting article – Telegraph nov 2009

Gulf petro-powers to launch currency in latest threat to dollar hegemony

The Arab states of the Gulf region have agreed to launch a single currency modelled on the euro, hoping to blaze a trail towards a pan-Arab monetary union swelling to the ancient borders of the Ummayad Caliphate.

“The Gulf monetary union pact has come into effect,” said Kuwait’s finance minister, Mustafa al-Shamali, speaking at a Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) summit in Kuwait.

The move will give the hyper-rich club of oil exporters a petro-currency of their own, greatly increasing their influence in the global exchange and capital markets and potentially displacing the US dollar as the pricing currency for oil contracts. Between them they amount to regional superpower with a GDP of $1.2 trillion (£739bn), some 40pc of the world’s proven oil reserves, and financial clout equal to that of China.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are to launch the first phase next year, creating a Gulf Monetary Council that will evolve quickly into a full-fledged central bank.

The Emirates are staying out for now – irked that the bank will be located in Riyadh at the insistence of Saudi King Abdullah rather than in Abu Dhabi. They are expected join later, along with Oman.

The Gulf states remain divided over the wisdom of anchoring their economies to the US dollar. The Gulf currency – dubbed “Gulfo” – is likely to track a global exchange basket and may ultimately float as a regional reserve currency in its own right. “The US dollar has failed. We need to delink,” said Nahed Taher, chief executive of Bahrain’s Gulf One Investment Bank.

The project is inspired by Europe’s monetary union, seen as a huge success in the Arab world. But there are concerns that the region is trying to run before it can walk.

Europe took 40 years to reach the point where it felt ready to launch a currency. It began with the creation of the Iron & Steel Community in the 1950s, moving by steps towards a single market enforced by powerful Commission and European Court. The EMU timetable was fixed at the Masstricht in 1991 but it took another 11 for euro notes and coins to reach the streets.

Khalid Bin Ahmad Al Kalifa, Bahrain’s foreign minister, told the FIKR Arab Thought summit in Kuwait that the project would not work unless the Gulf countries first break down basic barriers to trade and capital flows.

At the moment, trucks sit paralysed at border posts for days awaiting entry clearance. Labour mobility between states is almost zero.

“The single currency should come last. We need to coordinate our economic policies and build up common infrastructure as a first step,” he said.

Mohammed El-Enein, chair of the energy and industry committee in Egypt’s parliament, said Europe’s example could help the Arab world achieve its half-century dream of a unified currency, but the task requires discipline. “We need exactly the same institutions as the EU has created. We need a commission, a court, and a bank,” he said.

The last currency to trade in souks from Marakesh, to Baghdad and Mecca, was the Ottomon Piaster, known as the “kurush”. It suffered chronic inflation as the silver coinage was debased.

There is a logic to an Arab currency. The region speaks one language, has the unifying creed of “Umma Wahida” or One Nation from the Koran, and has not torn itself apart in savage wars – ever – in quite the way that Europe has in living memory.

Yet hurdles are formidable even for the tight-knit group of Gulf states. While the eurozone is a club of rough equals – with Germany, France, Italy, and Spain each holding two votes on the ECB council – the Gulf currency will be dominated by Saudi Arabia. The risk is that other countries will feel like satellites. Monetary policy will inevitably be set for Riyadh’s needs.

Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paraibas, said the Gulf states may have romanticised Europe’s achievement and need to move with great care to avoid making the same errors.

“The Greek crisis has exposed the weak foundations on which the euro is built. The gap in competitiveness between core Europe and the periphery has grown wider and wider. The obvious mistake was to launch EMU without a central fiscal authority and political union, as the Bundesbank warned in the 1990s,” he said. “The euro was created for political reasons after the fall of the Berlin Wall to lock Germany irrevocably into Europe. It was not done for economic reasons,” he said.

Ben Simpfendorfer, Asia economist for RBS and an expert on the Middle East, told the FIKR conference that the rise of China had paradoxically disrupted the case for pan-Arab economic integration.

There was a natural fit ten years ago between rich oil state and low-wage manufacturers in Egypt and Syria, but cheap exports from China have forced poorer Arab states to retreat behind barriers to shelter their industries. “The rationale for a single currency has become weaker,” he said.

The GCC also agreed to create a joint military strike force – akin to the EU’s rapid reaction force – to tackle threats such as the incursion of Yemeni Shiite rebels into Saudi territory earlier this year. This is a major breakthrough after years of deadlock on defence cooperation.

The SunniGulf states are deeply concerned about the great power ambitions of Shiite Iran and its quest for nuclear weapons, to the point where the theme of a possible war between Iran and a Saudi-led constellation of states has crept into the media debate.