American Diversity = Diversity in Public Opinion

PUBLIC OPINION AND THE POLITICAL PROCESS

How do we come to our perception of issues?

Political Socialization—the process through which an individual acquires his or her particular political orientations—his or her knowledge, feelings, and evaluations regarding his or her political world.

A lifelong process is political socialization—and as people become more socialized—their political orientations become firmer.

Politics is a learned process through…

§  Family (have an emotional connection and time)

§  Mass Media

§  School

§  Peer Groups

How can we come to understand American public opinion?

First, through the study of demography—the science of people—we get an idea as to who are Americans.

American diversity = diversity in public opinion

The Census—constitutionally mandated every 10 years (quick review reapportionment, redistricting etc)

Understanding the census in terms of must consider:

§  Patterns of Immigration

§  Disadvantaged Groups

§  Regional Shifts

§  An Aging Population

How can we classify public opinion?

Public Opinion can also be classified and viewed in terms of its…

1.  Distribution—looking at the electorate as a whole, the proportion of the population that holds one opinion or viewpoint as compard to those with opposing opinions or those with no opinion at all. Consensus and polarized opinions.

2.  Intensity—the basis of behavior, to what degree does the individual like or dislike something

With the absence though of any major social or economic problem, intensity lessened. This refers to the fervor of people’s beliefs and its variance—the scale of how people feel on a certain issue.

3.  Latency—political opinions that exist merely as a potential and that set rough boundaries for politicians/leaders to gauge what actions will elicit or trigger support or criticism about certain actions. Opinion more likely to change when an individual lacks intensity or information on the issue.

4.  Salience—the extent to which people feel that issues are relevant to them. Salience serves as a major factor in determining intensity and latency. Salience changes over time and if personal concerns of individuals become connected with national issues, salience rises sharply.

“It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job, it’s a depression when you lose yours.”

How then can we define public opinion?

Public opinion is then a collection of individual opinions towards issues or objects of general interest (those issues that concern a significant # of people)

Or

Public opinion is the distribution of individual preferences or evaluations of a given issue, candidate, or institution within a population.

Public Opinion:

§  Is not static.

§  Can vary from issue to issue and can change from poorly informed reactions to more thoughtful and considered conclusions.

§  Can be seen developing in seven stages (Daniel Yankelvich—Public Agenda)

1.  Dawning Awareness

2.  Greater Urgency

3.  Researching the Solutions

4.  Wishful thinking

5.  Weighing the Choices

6.  Taking a Stand

7.  Making a Responsible Judgment

How can we measure public opinion?

Polling

Early History of Polling

·  First poll efforts consisted of straw polls (unscientific) that were used in the 1824 presidential election.

·  Possibly the first straw poll was conducted in 1824 in the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian when reporters were sent out to check on support for presidential candidates Jackson, Adams, Clay, and Crawford.

·  But there was no way to determine if the sample taken was indicative or representative of a larger population.

·  Literary Digest episode in 1936 with Alf v. FDR evidenced the need for more scientific polling.

5 Components to a Scientific Poll

1.  Random Sampling (usually 1500-2000 surveyed)

2.  Questions must be comprehensible

3.  Questions must be asked fairly—how were they worded as well

4.  Categories of responses must be carefully considered

5.  Sampling error—decreases as number sampled gets larger

·  Of the scientific polling, the Gallup poll is most wide known and one of the oldest. There are many other excellent surveys conducted by reputable firms and news organizations as well.

·  The major distinguishing difference between scientific and unscientific polls is who picks the respondents for the survey.

·  In a scientific poll, the pollster identifies and seeks out the people to be interviewed. In an unscientific poll, the respondents usually “volunteer” their opinions, selecting themselves for the poll.

·  The results of the well-conducted scientific poll can provide a reliable guide to the opinions of many people in addition to those being interviewed.

·  The unscientific polls are often less well known, if quite widespread. There are 900-nubmer call in polls, man in the street surveys, shopping mall polls, and even the classic toilet tissue poll picturing pictures of the candidates on each sheet.

·  Other types of polling that have been in the news lately—push polls (see Bush-McCain in SC)

Some criticisms of polling

1.  People lie

·  Most people lie when asked whether they have voted in elections

o  A poll that asks 1000 “registered” or “likely” voters may be suspect

o  A poll of all adults is not very useful in a race where only 25% of the voters turn out.

·  Polls permit government to think that it has taken public opinion into account when possibly only passive, ill informed opinions have been counted

o  Polls substitute passive attitudes for active expression of opinion

·  Polls distort the election process

2.  Polls create a bandwagon effect

Americans believe they are not swayed by polls but 26% believe “the other guy” is

Create an underdog effect—people rally around a candidate who is behind in the polls (strategy this year of Gore, Bradley, McCain, and Bush)

Exit Polls—may evoke criticism but voter turnout not truly influenced

3. The wording of the question in the polls may influence responses

4. Proliferation of polling firms have been linked to the ability of politicians/candidates to raise money to buy their services

·  140 presidential polls in the 1988 campaign

·  Clinton in 1993 spent $1.9 million in polling—after the election

5.  Polls contribute to the marketing of an image of political candidates that fits the voters’ expectations (contribute to the image more than to the substance)

6.  Polls and gauging public opinion at stages in campaign may discourage individuals from running for office, raising money, or hiring campaign help

Yet most (75%) Americans believe that polls work for the best interests of the public

·  Polls provide some public input in policymaking process

·  Polling helps candidates detect public preferences

·  Polling provides a way for public desires to be heard at times other than elections

·  Through polls and through understanding the public’s opinion on issues help interpret the meaning of elections

o  Polls reveal what elections mean and make then the political process more responsive to voters

o  Being cognizant of public opinion causes most candidates to stay away from extremist positions on certain issues (presidential elections are often contests between two moderates)

Is government then responsive to public opinion?

Government officials pay attention not only to the direction of public opinion but to its intensity

Influence on policy

·  Study of public opinion and policy initiatives between 1935 and 1979 found that congruence of opinion and policy most likely when the opinion change was large and stable and when the opinion moved in a liberal direction.

·  When changes in public opinion were clear-cut, policy usually became consistent with opinion.

·  Yet sometimes policy does not change with change of opinion (reelection does not rest with the entire public but rather with the voting public and those who vote often differ in opinion with those who do not vote)

·  To the extent that elected officials respond to voters, and voters differ from non-voters, the public policy may not represent public opinion.

·  There is nothing sacred about public opinion—the public can be wrong

·  The federal system of government allows government to be insulated from the influence of public opinion

·  Public opinion is not the only influence on public policy, nor is it the most important.

·  Interest groups, political parties and other institutions of government as well as officials own preferences about issues influence policy

·  Polling has lead to several indications of American apathy in terms of politics

·  There is a paradox of “mass politics”—the U.S. political system works as well as it does given the lack of information the public has on a particular issue