ACFI Monitoring Report – April2017

Background

  • In 2013-14 and 2014-15 annual real growth of about 3.4% and 7.4% in the daily average ACFI were higher than projections of 3.2% and 5.6%, respectively.
  • In 2015-16, the annual real growth was 5.2%. This was higher than the initial projection of 3.2%.
  • In 2016-17, annual real (or non indexed) growth was projected at about 1.7%. Effective indexation was 1.3% implying a nominal growth of 3.0%.These figures include changes to ACFI beginning 1 July 2016 and 1 January 2017.

Summary of April2017Data

Average daily ACFI subsidyfor the period ofApril2017(1 July 2016 to 30 April2017) was $172.33comparedto a budget of $171.99.

If real growth for the year continues at the rate observed year-to-date, annual growth will be 2.1%.This is higher than the 2016 Budget projection of 1.7% (which takes account of 1 January 2017 changes).

Actual cumulative growth for the financial year to end of April2017 compared to the same period in 2015-16 was 2.6% (higher thanprojected cumulative growth of 2.4%).

  • By domain, the growth was 2.3% for ADL, 1.8% for BEH and 3.7% for CHC
  • Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory had growth higher than 2.4%

Figure 1.Real Growth in ACFI[1]Figure 2. Nominal Growth in ACFI


Overall changes in ACFI

The following charts show overall trends in ACFI. Claims peaked sharply before 1 July 2016 and flattened in the subsequent months.Claiming amounts started to rise in November and has peaked in December prior to the 1 January 2017 ACFI changes taking effect.There was a slight decline following the 1 January changes.

Figure 3. Daily Average $/Day Trend by Month – 2016/17 Dollars

Table 1: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by State

State / Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Projected National / $165.79 / $171.99 / 3.7% / 2.4%
Actual National / $165.79 / $172.33 / 3.9% / 2.6%
NSW / $163.21 / $169.31 / 3.7% / 2.4%
VIC / $169.43 / $177.59 / 4.8% / 3.5%
QLD / $163.36 / $169.45 / 3.7% / 2.4%
WA / $171.00 / $177.22 / 3.6% / 2.3%
SA / $167.05 / $171.97 / 2.9% / 1.6%
TAS / $159.12 / $167.87 / 5.5% / 4.1%
ACT / $164.33 / $164.73 / 0.2% / -1.0%
NT / $162.93 / $173.38 / 6.4% / 5.0%

*The difference between the year to date projected national figure presented in the table and the annual projection of 1.7% relates to the month of the report. (ie this shows July 2016 to April2017relative to July 2015 to April 2016whereas the annual projection shows July 2016 until June 2017.)

Table 2: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Remoteness

Remoteness / Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Major Cities of Australia / $169.51 / $175.86 / 3.7% / 2.4%
Inner Regional Australia / $158.30 / $165.31 / 4.4% / 3.1%
Outer Regional Australia / $156.44 / $162.93 / 4.1% / 2.8%
Remote Australia / $130.67 / $144.61 / 10.7% / 9.2%
Very Remote Australia / $142.84 / $151.28 / 5.9% / 4.5%

Table 3: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Organization Type

Organization Type / Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Not-For-Profit / $159.03 / $165.93 / 4.3% / 3.0%
For-Profit / $178.61 / $184.12 / 3.1% / 1.8%
Government / $146.44 / $152.78 / 4.3% / 3.0%

Table 4: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Provider Size

Provider Size* / Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
0-41 / $137.24 / $145.36 / 5.9% / 4.6%
41-74 / $154.43 / $160.96 / 4.2% / 2.9%
74-131 / $160.66 / $168.35 / 4.8% / 3.4%
131-499 / $164.16 / $171.23 / 4.3% / 3.0%
500-999 / $169.75 / $176.15 / 3.8% / 2.4%
1000+ / $172.52 / $177.51 / 2.9% / 1.6%

*Based on full time equivalent residents per year for 2015-16. Only includes providers active during July 2015.

Table 5: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by ACFI Category

Average ACFI Category Subsidy / Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
ADL / $87.61 / $90.96 / 3.8% / 2.3%
BEH / $26.80 / $27.69 / 3.3% / 1.8%
CHC / $51.37 / $53.68 / 4.5% / 3.7%

Table 6: Cumulative proportion of total days by ACFI Level and ACFI Category

ADL / BEH / CHC
ACFI Level / Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017 / Change ADL / Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017 / Change BEH / Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017 / Change CHC
H / 53.5% / 56.4% / 2.9% / 62.5% / 64.1% / 1.6% / 55.9% / 59.0% / 3.1%
M / 30.2% / 29.7% / -0.4% / 20.7% / 20.5% / -0.2% / 24.8% / 25.4% / 0.6%
L / 15.5% / 13.2% / -2.3% / 11.9% / 11.0% / -0.8% / 15.7% / 13.0% / -2.8%
N / 0.8% / 0.6% / -0.2% / 4.9% / 4.3% / -0.6% / 3.6% / 2.6% / -1.0%

Table 7: Cumulative proportion of total days by ADL Scores and ADL Question

Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017
ADL Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Nutrition / 4.4% / 18.3% / 59.3% / 18.0% / 3.7% / 16.2% / 63.1% / 17.0%
Mobility / 2.6% / 4.8% / 36.7% / 55.9% / 2.0% / 3.7% / 35.6% / 58.7%
Personal Hygiene / 0.6% / 6.7% / 11.0% / 81.7% / 0.4% / 6.1% / 9.9% / 83.6%
Toileting / 5.0% / 13.2% / 13.8% / 67.9% / 3.8% / 11.9% / 13.8% / 70.5%
Continence / 15.8% / 3.1% / 5.0% / 76.1% / 14.1% / 2.6% / 4.6% / 78.7%

Table 8: Cumulative proportion of total days by BEH Scores and BEH Question

Jul 2015 To Apr 2016 / Jul 2016 To Apr 2017
BEH Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Cognitive Skills / 10.2% / 28.2% / 33.0% / 28.5% / 9.1% / 28.0% / 34.5% / 28.3%
Wandering / 77.4% / 6.6% / 4.5% / 11.5% / 79.9% / 5.9% / 4.1% / 10.1%
Verbal / 12.8% / 12.3% / 17.9% / 57.0% / 12.0% / 11.6% / 18.3% / 58.2%
Physical / 25.7% / 14.4% / 16.6% / 43.2% / 25.7% / 14.6% / 17.5% / 42.2%
Depression / 38.3% / 30.1% / 16.2% / 15.4% / 36.5% / 30.3% / 16.9% / 16.3%

Table 9: Distribution of claim days for the CHC

July 2015 to April 2016

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A / 0.6% / 0.2% / 0.9% / 0.2%
B / 2.7% / 5.2% / 7.2% / 8.9%
C / 4.9% / 4.4% / 8.2% / 12.4%
D / 1.8% / 7.8% / 25.7% / 8.8%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 3.6%
Low / 16.3%
Med / 24.3%
High / 55.9%

Table 9 (continued): Distribution of claim days for the CHC

July 2016 to April 20171Appraised before 1 July 2016

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A / 0.4% / 0.1% / 0.8% / 0.1%
B / 1.5% / 3.1% / 5.2% / 7.9%
C / 2.7% / 2.4% / 5.5% / 10.3%
D / 1.0% / 4.9% / 20.9% / 7.2%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 2.7%
Low / 12.5%
Med / 22.4%
High / 62.5%

Appraised between 1 July 2016 and 31 December 2016

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A / 0.1% / 0.0% / 0.1% / 0.1%
B / 0.5% / 1.1% / 1.9% / 3.2%
C / 0.7% / 0.8% / 2.1% / 4.0%
D / 0.2% / 1.4% / 1.6% / 3.9%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 2.8%
Low / 13.6%
Med / 32.7%
High / 50.9%

Appraised on or after 1 January 2017

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A - No Assistance / 0.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% / 0.0%
B - Assistance / 0.4% / 0.6% / 1.3% / 1.4%
C - Injections / 0.0% / 0.0% / 0.1% / 0.2%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 0.8%
Low / 25.5%
Med / 35.1%
High / 38.6%
  1. Since 1 July 2016, there have been three ACFI regimes that a resident may have been appraised under; this depends on the date the resident was last appraised. Given this, the data for 2016-17 is split into three groups.

Table 10: Actual Average ACFI per day – Monthly and Cumulative

ACFI / Jul 16 / Aug 16 / Sep 16 / Oct 16 / Nov 16 / Dec 16
Monthly ACFI / $172.51 / $172.53 / $172.54 / $172.46 / $172.64 / $173.07
Cumulative ACFI / $172.51 / $172.52 / $172.53 / $172.48 / $172.50 / $172.59
ACFI / Jan 16 / Feb 16 / Mar 16 / Apr 16 / May 16 / Jun 16
Monthly ACFI / $172.51 / $172.20 / $172.02 / $171.70
Cumulative ACFI / $172.56 / $172.51 / $172.43 / $172.33

Figure 4.ACFI Category - Change in Proportion of Total Care Days Year to Date – Year on Year*

*Compares change in proportion of care days for 1 July to31Marchbetween 2015/16 and 2016/17

*All $ values are based on ACFI Question Responses,

[1]2015/16 projection was revised up to 5.2% in May 2016 Budget

2016/17 actual annual estimates is based on both 2015 MYEFO and 2016 Budget measures