Illinois Job Index

Release
10/30/2014 / Data
Jan 1990 / Sep2014 / Issue
2014.10 /

Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics revised their current and previous estimates for employment at the beginning of 2014.

ForSeptemberIllinois Job Index, Illinois, RMWand the nationall had positive job growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

 / Oct
2014
Positive / Aug2014–Sep2014 / Last 12 months / Sep2014
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R.*
Nation / 0.18 / 248,000 / 1.93 / 2,635,000 / 11.44%
RMW / 0.07 / 14,700 / 1.25 / 242,600 / 12.21%
Illinois / 0.33 / 19,300 / 1.19 / 69,000 / 11.45%

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes /
  • Illinoisgained 19,300 jobs in September2014, compared with a 20,700job gain inAugust2014. Compared to September2013, Illinois has added 69,000 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed anincrease of16,500 jobs per month.
  • The Nation added 248,000jobs at a rate of 0.18%, compared with an180,000 job gain in August2014. The three-month moving average was up by 223,700 jobs per month.
  • The RMW added14,700 jobs inSeptemberafter a1,900 job gain in August 2014. The three-month moving average was up by13,800 jobs per month.
  • Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37 times and positive job gains 43times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 124,300 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
  • Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
  • Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 279,400 new jobs.
  • By September 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
  • The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.45%, 12.21% and 11.44%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.6%, 6.0% and 6.0%.
  • ThroughSeptember2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 11.30%, 15.00%, and 27.75%, respectively.

Nation
Notes /
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 248,000 jobs. Sectors such asProfessional & business services, Trade, transportation & utilities and Leisure & hospitality had major job growth.
  • The nation has recovered from the recent recession andadded1,393,000additional jobs since the last employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
  • The nation’s average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013and 2014 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14% and0.16% respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – September2014
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
September2014
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 139,435,000 / 127.75 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 30,290,000 / 1,393,000
RMW / 19,653,700 / 115.00 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 2,563,100 / -745,300
Illinois / 5,863,600 / 111.30 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 595,300 / -193,400
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Oct2013 –Sep2014

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure626,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point,Dec-2009 is466,100. Adding 160,800, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 626,900.

**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 278,700 represents the jobs recoveredfrom December 2009 throughSeptember 2014.

Employment Growth Rateby Sector:

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector,August2014 – September2014
Sector notes /
  • Illinois posted positivechange in September2014 byadding19,300jobs. Eightout of ten sectors recorded netgains. Compared to August 2014, Other Services(-0.24% to 2.20%) hada major performance gain, whileManufacturing(0.63% to -0.49%) had a major performance loss.Leisure & hospitality(0.79% to -0.20%), Professional & business services (0.75% to 0.66%) andConstruction (1.10% to 0.69%)also experienced net performance loss, whileEducation & health(-0.10% to 0.08%), Government (0.07% to 0.11%), Information (0.10% to 0.62%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.43% to 0.56%) and Financial activities (-0.05% to 0.41%)experienced net gains in performance.
  • InSeptemberat the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
  • Professional & business services:81,000 (0.42%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: 37,000 (0.14%)
  • Leisure & hospitality:33,000 (0.23%)
  • No sector lost jobs in September at the national level, and the only sector that had unchanged employment was Other Services.
  • For Illinois, themajorjob-gain sectors inSeptemberwere:
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: 6,500 (0.56%)
  • Professional & business services: 6,000(0.66%)
  • Other Services: 5,500 (2.20%)
  • Following are the two sectors that lost jobs in Septemberfor Illinois:
  • Leisure & hospitality: -1,100 (-0.20%)
  • Manufacturing:-2,800(-0.49%)
  • For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 350,000jobs, Construction is down 26,800jobs,Information down 32,400jobs and Financial activities has 2,200 fewer jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 –September2014
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -26,800 / -11.63 / 7.02 / 12.12
Manufacturing / - / - / -350,300 / -37.98 / -25.15 / -31.70
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 27,500 / 2.40 / 4.97 / 16.54
Information / - / - / -32,400 / -24.87 / -17.09 / 0.82
Financial activities / - / - / -2,200 / -0.59 / 14.48 / 21.24
Professional & business services / - / - / 338,500 / 59.18 / 69.85 / 80.12
Education & health / - / - / 355,100 / 67.11 / 69.42 / 100.22
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 164,500 / 42.85 / 33.15 / 58.09
Other Services / + / - / 50,400 / 24.51 / 22.34 / 30.73
Government / - / - / 79,800 / 10.57 / 11.64 / 20.72
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –September2014
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-Sep2014 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-Sep 2015 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / -300 / -0.47% / 100 / 0.16%
Manufacturing / -114,500 / 17,100 / 14.93% / 14,600 / 12.75%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,100 / 54,600 / 56.23% / 68,400 / 70.44%
Information / -11,300 / -6,500 / -57.52% / -7,600 / -67.26%
Financial activities / -32,700 / 5,400 / 16.51% / 5,800 / 17.74%
Professional & business services / -92,700 / 129,600 / 139.81% / 158,800 / 171.31%
Education & health / 32,200 / 62,700 / - / 77,700 / -
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 36,500 / 163.68% / 45,400 / 203.59%
Other services / -6,300 / 0 / 0.00% / 3,900 / 66.10%
Government / 5,600 / -21,200 / - / -19,500 / -

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector /
  • During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
  • Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 14.93%, 56.23%, 16.51%, 139.81% and163.68%respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
  • By September 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
  • However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction and Informationare still negative, namely, -0.47%and -57.52% respectively.
  • The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU),Financial activities, Professional & business services,Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
  • Manufacturing and Information are predicted tolose jobs.

Construction / Aug 2014 –Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.69 / 1,400
RMW / 0.94 / 6,900
Nation / 0.26 / 16,000
Manufacturing / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.49 / -2,800
RMW / 0.46 / 12,300
Nation / 0.03 / 4,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.56 / 6,500
RMW / 0.04 / 1,600
Nation / 0.14 / 37,000
Information / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.62 / 600
RMW / 0.00 / 0
Nation / 0.45 / 12,000
Financial activities / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.41 / 1,500
RMW / -0.03 / -300
Nation / 0.15 / 12,000
Professional & business services / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.66 / 6,000
RMW / 0.05 / 1,100
Nation / 0.42 / 81,000
Education & health / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.08 / 700
RMW / 0.23 / 7,000
Nation / 0.15 / 32,000
Leisure & hospitality / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.20 / -1,100
RMW / -0.47 / -9,000
Nation / 0.23 / 33,000
Other Services / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 2.20 / 5,500
RMW / 0.35 / 2,900
Nation / 0 / 0
Government / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014 / Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.11 / 900
RMW / -0.26 / -7,700
Nation / 0.05 / 12,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at

Illinois Jobs Index / release 10/30/2014 / / page 1