SLOWER RATE OF INCREASE IN UK SOFTWOOD PRODUCTION FORECAST

Annual softwood production in British forests – currently running at 4.5m m3 – will reach 8.8m m3 in the period 2002/06. This is revealed in the latest review of conifer output forecasts for Forestry Commission and private woodlands just completed by the FC and by Timber Growers UK Ltd.

Compared with the previous forecasts (1982) – published in Forestry and British Timber, January 1982 – the lastest prediction implies a delay in reaching the 8m m3 mark which was previously expected in the period 1997/2001.

Conifer production forecast reviews are carried out every 5 years and made for a period of 20 years ahead. They take into account up-to-date information on the physical state of the growing stock and other factors that influence the potential yield such as management regimes and the length of the rotation. The FC and private woodland forecasts are brought together by the Supply and Demand Sub Committee of the Home Grown Timber Advisory Committee and the forecast is published under the auspices of the HGTAC.

The presentation of these forecasts takes account of the re-organisation of the Forestry Commission which was effective from April 1 1985 and reduced the number of Conservancies from 11 to seven.

Industrial Capacity

The increasing volume of the timber forecast in 1982 proved to be a major incentive to a redvelopment of the wood-processing industry following the collapse of several large consumers during the recession in the early years of the decade. Since then over £600m has been invested in green-field developments and in the re-equipping and expansion of existing sawmills and in wood-based panel manufacture.

Thus, there have been dramatic changes in industrial demand, and, unlike the position in 1982, wood production is flowing forward to a soundly-based domestic industry fully capable of utilising it. There appears at present to be adequate capacity, installed and planned to absorb all the sawlogs and small roundwood coming forward up to 2000.

Forestry Commission Forests

The 1987 forecast has been prepared using the same methods as those in the 1982 forecast. It is based on the Commission’s current management practices and takes account of crop stability, recreation and landscape considerations. Such factors generally but not invariably have the effect of deferring yield but they may be further modified by market and contractural obligations. Further, the growing stock has been adjusted to take account of the disposal of plantations under the Commission’s rationalistation programme.

For these reasons, this new forecast predicts a lower rate of increase in the volume of production. However for the first five-year period it has been decided to maintain as closely as possible the level of production which was forecast in 1982 in order to minimise the impact on industry. To achieve this, felling has been advanced (relative to the new extended optimumrotations) in most FC conservancies to some degree.

Private Woodlands

The wide variation in the management objectives of private owners makes the private sector forecast necessarily less precise. The forecast has been prepared by Timber Growers UK Ltd in consultation with the Forestry Commission and is based on the 1979-82 Census of Woodland updated to take account of the estimated felling and planting which has taken place since then. FC disposals to the private sector have been added to the database.

The same criteria have been used in this forecast as were used in 1982 but have been modified in the light of experience. The main modification have been to increase the areas allocated to a non-thin regime based on the latest experience of windblow in upland forests. The result is believed to be a more accurate forecast.

The 1982 forecast was of potential cut and took no account of retentions by estate owners for amenity or conservation or for fiscal reasons. Experience showed that this caused some confusion when interpreting the data. Therefore it has been decided to revert to the previous practice and to produce a forecast of potential removals by making a deduction of 10% from the potential cut to allow for timber unlikely to br removed from the forest.

Details of the broadleaf production forecast wre published in F&BT, June 1986.

How the results were computed
The forecasts given here are standing volumes in cubic metres overbark. As in the past, they have been computed in three parts: first, the volume of wood of 18cm diameter and above; second, the wood between 14cm and 18cm diameter; and third, the wood volume between 7cm and 14cm diameter.

As in the forecasts of 1977 and 1982, the convention has been maintained where by the volume in the 18cm category and half the volume in the 14cm to 18cm category and all the wood between 7cm and 14cm is regarded as being composed of small roundwood.

Of necessity, this is a rather arbitrary division of the standing volume between sawlog and small roundwood material which in practice will vary according to technical requirements of individual customers.

Expression of the forecast in terms of standing volume in cubic metres overbark also follows past convention. In order to estimate the extracted volume, allowance must be made for the gross difference between standing and extracted volumes which includes not only waste but covers the effects of different measurement methods and conventions.

Where sawlogs are sold in under-bark terms, a further reduction must be made to allow for the volume of bark.

Table I
Forecast of average annual cut of conifer roundwood in Britain by five-year periods
1987-2006: Forestry Commission forests and private woodlands

Period

/

Country

/ (Volume: thousand cubic metres overbark)
Small Roundwood / Logs / Total
FC / PW / Total / FC / PW / Total / FC / PW / Total
1987-91 / England
Scotland
Wales / 515
620
310 / 435
465
80 / 950
1085
390 / 680
830
430 / 385
310
55 / 1065
1140
485 / 1195
1450
740 / 820
775
135 / 2015
2225
875

GB Total

/ 1445 / 980 / 2425 / 1940 / 750 / 2690 / 3385 / 1730 / 5115
1992-96 / England
Scotland
Wales / 510
670
345 / 530
650
125 / 1040
1320
470 / 745
875
540 / 510
455
85 / 1255
1330
625 / 1225
1545
885 / 1040
1105
210 / 2295
2650
1095

GB Total

/ 1525 / 1305 / 2830 / 2160 / 1050 / 3210 / 3685 / 2355 / 6040
1997-01 / England
Scotland
Wales / 515
890
370 / 590
785
150 / 1105
1675
520 / 860
1200
745 / 625
550
100 / 1485
1750
845 / 1375
2090
1115 / 1215
1335
250 / 2590
3425
1365

GB Total

/ 1775 / 1525 / 3300 / 2805 / 1275 / 4080 / 4580 / 2800 / 7380
2002-06 / England
Scotland
Wales / 525
1145
400 / 600
845
190 / 1125
1990
590 / 905
1585
890 / 805
755
185 / 1710
2340
1075 / 1430
2730
1290 / 1405
1600
375 / 2835
4330
1665

GB Total

/ 2070 / 1635 / 3705 / 3380 / 1745 / 5125 / 5450 / 3380 / 8830
FC = Forestry Commission
PW = Private Woodlands

Table II

Forecast of average annual cut of coniferRoundwood 1987-1991: Forestry Commission forests and
Private woodlands
Conservancy / (Volume: thousands cubic metres overbark)
Small roundwood / Logs / Total
Spruces / Others / Total / Spruces / Others / Total / Spruces / Others / Total
North England
East England
West England / 175
45
80 / 145
295
210 / 320
340
290 / 210
35
75 / 145
390
210 / 355
425
285 / 385
80
155 / 290
685
420 / 675
765
575
England / 300 / 650 / 950 / 320 / 745 / 1065 / 620 / 1395 / 2015
North Scotland
Mid Scotland
South Scotland / 170
160
265 / 300
95
95 / 470
255
360 / 255
260
230 / 210
100
85 / 465
360
315 / 425
420
495 / 510
195
180 / 935
615
675
Scotland / 595 / 490 / 1085 / 745 / 395 / 1140 / 1340 / 885 / 2225
Wales / 235 / 155 / 390 / 290 / 195 / 485 / 525 / 350 / 875
GB Total / 1130 / 1295 / 2425 / 1355 / 1335 / 2690 / 2485 / 2630 / 5115
Table III
Forecast of average annual cut of coniferRoundwood 1992-1996: Forestry Commission forests and
Private woodlands
Conservancy / (Volume: thousands cubic metres overbark)
Small roundwood / Logs / Total
Spruces / Others / Total / Spruces / Others / Total / Spruces / Others / Total
North England
East England
West England / 190
60
95 / 145
315
235 / 335
375
330 / 225
35
90 / 150
440
285 / 405
475
375 / 445
95
185 / 295
755
520 / 740
850
705
England / 345 / 695 / 1040 / 380 / 875 / 1255 / 725 / 1570 / 2295
North Scotland
Mid Scotland
South Scotland / 205
220
345 / 325
115
110 / 530
335
455 / 265
285
255 / 265
140
120 / 530
425
375 / 470
505
600 / 590
255
230 / 1060
760
830
Scotland / 770 / 550 / 1230 / 805 / 525 / 1330 / 1575 / 1075 / 2650
Wales / 295 / 175 / 470 / 380 / 245 / 625 / 675 / 420 / 1095
GB Total / 1410 / 1420 / 2830 / 1565 / 1645 / 3210 / 2975 / 3065 / 6040

Table IV

Forecast of average annual cut of coniferRoundwood 1997-2001: Forestry Commission forests and
Private woodlands
Conservancy / (Volume: thousands cubic metres overbark)
Small roundwood / Logs / Total
Spruces / Others / Total / Spruces / Others / Total / Spruces / Others / Total
North England
East England
West England / 230
65
100 / 165
320
225 / 395
385
325 / 320
50
105 / 210
490
310 / 530
540
415 / 550
115
205 / 375
810
535 / 625
625
740
England / 395 / 710 / 1105 / 457 / 1010 / 1485 / 870 / 1720 / 2590
North Scotland
Mid Scotland
South Scotland / 220
335
505 / 360
110
145 / 580
445
650 / 280
440
430 / 310
145
145 / 590
585
575 / 500
775
935 / 670
255
290 / 1170
1030
1225
Scotland / 1060 / 615 / 1675 / 1150 / 600 / 1750 / 2210 / 1215 / 3425
Wales / 345 / 175 / 520 / 510 / 335 / 845 / 855 / 510 / 1365
GB Total / 1800 / 1500 / 3300 / 2135 / 1945 / 4080 / 3935 / 3445 / 7380
Table V
Forecast of average annual cut of coniferRoundwood 2002-2006: Forestry Commission forests and
Private woodlands
Conservancy / (Volume: thousands cubic metres overbark)
Small roundwood / Logs / Total
Spruces / Others / Total / Spruces / Others / Total / Spruces / Others / Total
North England
East England
West England / 280
60
90 / 180
305
210 / 460
365
300 / 390
70
130 / 235
510
375 / 625
580
505 / 670
130
220 / 415
815
585 / 1085
945
805
England / 430 / 695 / 1125 / 590 / 1120 / 1710 / 1020 / 1815 / 2835
North Scotland
Mid Scotland
South Scotland / 245
445
600 / 375
145
180 / 620
590
780 / 340
575
670 / 335
175
245 / 675
750
915 / 585
1020
1270 / 710
320
425 / 1295
1340
1695
Scotland / 1290 / 700 / 1990 / 1585 / 755 / 2340 / 2875 / 1455 / 4330
Wales / 410 / 180 / 590 / 670 / 405 / 1075 / 1080 / 585 / 1665
GB Total / 2130 / 1575 / 3705 / 2845 / 2280 / 5125 / 4975 / 3855 / 8830