General Election Match-Ups from Recent State Polling

Support for Electoral Maps (pages 6 – 7)

State / EVs / Poll / Date / Results / Margin
Alabama / 9 / Survey USA / April 11-13 / HRC 34 / McCain 60
Obama 34 / McCain 64 / HRC -26
Obama -30
Alaska / 3 / Rasmussen / May 14 / HRC 36 / McCain 53
Obama 41 / McCain 50 / HRC -17
Obama -9
Arizona / 10 / Behavior Research Center’s Rocky Mountain Poll / May 12-20 / HRC 36 / McCain 51
Obama 39 / McCain 50 / HRC -15
Obama -11
Arkansas / 6 / Rasmussen / May 12 / HRC 53 / McCain 39
Obama 33 / McCain 57 / HRC +14
Obama -24
California / 55 / LA Times / KTLA / May 20-21 / HRC 43 / McCain 40
Obama 47 / McCain 40 / HRC +3
Obama +7
Colorado / 9 / Rasmussen / May 19 / HRC 44 / McCain 47
Obama 48 / McCain 42 / HRC -3
Obama +6
Connecticut / 7 / Rasmussen / March 11 / HRC 47 / McCain 44
Obama 50 / McCain 38 / HRC +3
Obama +12
Florida / 27 / Quinnipiac / May 13-20 / HRC 48 / McCain 41
Obama 41 / McCain 45 / HRC +7
Obama -4
Georgia / 15 / Strategic Vision / May 9-11 / Obama 40 / McCain 54 / Obama -14
Rasmussen / May 6 / HRC 37 / McCain 48 / HRC -11
Hawaii / 4 / Survey USA / March 6 / HRC 43 / McCain 39
Obama 61 / McCain 31 / HRC +4
Obama +30
Idaho / 4 / Survey USA / March 6 / HRC 27 / McCain 63
Obama 39 / McCain 52 / HRC -36
Obama -13
Illinois / 21 / Survey USA / March 6 / HRC 48 / McCain 37
Obama 60 / McCain 31 / HRC +11
Obama +29
Indiana / 11 / Research 2000 for WSBT/South Bend Tribune / April 21-24 / HRC 41 / McCain 52
Obama 43 / McCain 51 / HRC -11
Obama -8
Iowa / 7 / Rasmussen / May 13 / HRC 42 / McCain 45 / HRC -3
Survey USA / May 21-22 / Obama 47 / McCain 38 / Obama +9
Kansas / 6 / Rasmussen / May 13 / HRC 39 / McCain 53
Obama 34 / McCain 55 / HRC -14
Obama -21
Kentucky / 8 / Rasmussen / May 22 / HRC 51 / McCain 42
Obama 32 / McCain 57 / HRC +9
Obama -25
Louisiana / 9 / Southern Media & Opinion Research / March 26-April 9 / HRC 42 / McCain 49
Obama 35 / McCain 51 / HRC -7
Obama -16
Maine / 4 / Rasmussen / May 14 / HRC 51 / McCain 38
Obama 51 / McCain 38 / HRC +13
Obama +13
Maryland / 10 / Gonzales Research & Polling / Feb 23-March 1 / HRC 47 / McCain 40
Obama 51 / McCain 37 / HRC +7
Obama +14
Massachusetts / 12 / Rasmussen / April 23 / HRC 55 / McCain 36
Obama 51 / McCain 39 / HRC +19
Obama +12
Michigan / 17 / Rasmussen / May 7 / HRC 44 / McCain 44
Obama 44 / McCain 45 / HRC +0
Obama -1
Minnesota / 10 / Rasmussen / May 22 / HRC 53 / McCain 38
Obama 53 / McCain 38 / HRC +15
Obama +15
Mississippi / 6 / Research 2000 for DailyKos.com / May 19-21 / HRC 36 / McCain 55
Obama 39 / McCain 54 / HRC -19
Obama -15
Missouri / 11 / Survey USA / May 16-18 / HRC 48 / McCain 46
Obama 45 / McCain 48 / HRC +2
Obama -3
Montana / 3 / Mason Dixon / May 19-21 / HRC 40 / McCain 51
Obama 39 / McCain 47 / HRC -11
Obama -8
Nebraska / 5 / Research 2000 for DailyKos.com / May 19-21 / HRC 28 / McCain 58
Obama 29 / McCain 57 / HRC -30
Obama -28
Nevada / 5 / Rasmussen / May 20 / HRC 46 / McCain 41
Obama 40 / McCain 46 / HRC +5
Obama -6
New Hampshire / 4 / Rasmussen / May 21 / HRC 51 / McCain 41
Obama 48 / McCain 43 / HRC +10
Obama +5
New Jersey / 15 / Research 2000 for the Bergen Record / April 25-29 / HRC 46 / McCain 41
Obama 48 / McCain 40 / HRC +5
Obama +8
New Mexico / 5 / Rasmussen / May 14 / HRC 47 / McCain 41
Obama 50 / McCain 41 / HRC +6
Obama +9
New York / 31 / Siena / May 12-15 / HRC 51 / McCain 39
Obama 49 / McCain 38 / HRC +12
Obama +11
North Carolina / 15 / PPP / May 8-9 / HRC 38 / McCain 46
Obama 42 / McCain 49 / HRC -8
Obama -7
North Dakota / 3 / Dakota Wesleyan University / March 24-April 3 / HRC 33 / McCain 53
Obama 38 / McCain 44 / HRC -20
Obama -6
Ohio / 20 / Quinnipiac / May 13-20 / HRC 48 / McCain 41
Obama 40 / McCain 44 / HRC +7
Obama -4
Oklahoma / 7 / Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates / April 7-10 / HRC 30 / McCain 60
Obama 21 / McCain 62 / HRC -30
Obama -41
Oregon / 7 / Rasmussen / May 7 / HRC 46 / McCain 40
Obama 52 / McCain 38 / HRC +6
Obama +14
Pennsylvania / 21 / Rasmussen / May 21 / HRC 50 / McCain 39
Obama 45 / McCain 43 / HRC +11
Obama +2
Rhode Island / 4 / Survey USA / February 26-28 / HRC 54 / McCain 37
Obama 53 / McCain 38 / HRC +17
Obama +15
South Carolina / 8 / Survey USA / February 26-28 / HRC 42 / McCain 48
Obama 45 / McCain 48 / HRC -6
Obama -3
South Dakota / 3 / Dakota Wesleyan University / March 24-April 3 / HRC 30 / McCain 59
Obama 34 / McCain 51 / HRC -29
Obama -17
Tennessee / 11 / Rasmussen / April 3 / HRC 38 / McCain 52
Obama 31 / McCain 58 / HRC -14
Obama -27
Texas / 34 / Research2000 for DailyKos.com / May 5-7 / HRC 38 / McCain 53
Obama 39 / McCain 52 / HRC -15
Obama -13
Utah / 5 / Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV / May 13-19 / HRC 20 / McCain 65
Obama 27 / McCain 62 / HRC -45
Obama -35
Vermont / 3 / Survey USA / February 26-28 / HRC 49 / McCain 39
Obama 63 / McCain 29 / HRC +10
Obama +34
Virginia / 13 / Virginia Commonwealth University / May 12-18 / HRC 39 / McCain 47
Obama 39 / McCain 47 / HRC -8
Obama -8
Washington / 11 / Rasmussen / May 12 / HRC 47 / McCain 42
Obama 51 / McCain 40 / HRC +5
Obama +11
West Virginia / 5 / Survey USA / February 26-28 / HRC 47 / McCain 42
Obama 35 / McCain 53 / HRC +5
Obama -18
Wisconsin / 10 / Rasmussen / May 5 / HRC 43 / McCain 47
Obama 43 / McCain 47 / HRC -4
Obama -4
Wyoming / 3 / Survey USA / February 26-28 / HRC 28 / McCain 61
Obama 35 / McCain 54 / HRC -33
Obama -19