Demographics Study Task Force (DSTF)
Demographics Study Task Force (DSTF)
Executive Summary (Part 1) - April 13, 2010
The DSTF examined population data and projections from the NH Office of Energy and Planning; public school district enrollment records from the NH Department of Education; Moultonborough School District enrollment records; SAU Office projection calculations; and Moultonborough yearly births data. The DSTF used these data sources to project enrollments at Moultonborough Central School (MCS) and Moultonborough Academy (MA) through 2014-2015.
1. The trends identified by the DSTF all indicate continued enrollment decline for the next five to ten years. Sometime between 2015 and 2020 enrollments are expected to level off, however, they are not expected to rebound to pre-2000 numbers.
2. NH public school district enrollment is declining in a steady predictable manner. Especially noteworthy is that both the former increase in enrollment, and now the decline, move up the grades fairly consecutively from first grade on. Therefore, past enrollment numbers can be used to forecast changes coming in middle and high school six years ahead. Carefully watching the earliest primary grades can help project elementary school changes also.
3. Projections on general population change in Belknap and Carroll Counties indicate decreasing numbers through 2012 followed by a leveling off of all ages under twenty. Major increases are projected for the over 64 year old population to about 300% by 2030.
4. The vast majority of the 40 NH districts actually increasing in enrollment are clustered south of Concord and East to Dover and the Seacoast. There is isolated incidental increase in a few other districts around the state. In the Lakes Region and surrounding areas, there is general decline of 10% on average since 2000-2001. Alton alone has increased 14%. With the exception of Alton, the other five districts on Lake Winnipesaukee have had a 9% on average enrollment decrease over this 8 year time span. Moultonborough’s decline since 2000-2001 is 9%.
5. A careful review of population and enrollment data from the state, region and local school districts, combined with U.S. census projections, lead the DSTF to have confidence in the following Moultonborough projections.
6. MA enrollment can be reasonably projected out six years from 2008-2009 based on known percents of MCS students who have entered MA in the past. This leads us to predict MA, grades 7 through 12, to have around 250 – 280 students in five years (2014-15) with future decline likely.
7. MCS enrollment can be reasonably projected out six years from 2008-2009 with historical survival trends year to year, as well as matching grade 1 to 3 to grade 4 to 6 survival rates and considering the five year average decline in births. This leads us to predict MCS to have 200 – 230 students in five years (2014-2015). Less certain is the timing of probable leveling off in these ages, with the state enrollment likely to drop to early 1990’s level. Once available, the 2010 U.S. Census data should help with these longer projections.
Demographics Study Task Force (DSTF)
Part 2 (Impacts and Recommendations) - April 13, 2010
•The second charge given to the DSTF is to use the demographics data to project educational impacts resulting from declining student enrollment.
•Members of the DSTF will present their recommendations regarding this charge to the School Board on June 8, 2010.
Part 2 of the DSTF report will likely be three-fold:
1.Identify potential educational program and building use impacts based on 2014-2015 enrollment projections for MCS and MA.
2.Identify guiding principles describing the educational programs the District will strive to maintain.
3.Identify options (e.g. actions/steps) that can be taken to adjust to or minimize potential program and building use impacts.
•Next steps to be taken by the DSTF will include:
1.Presentations of the demographics data (Part 1 Report) to the following groups: School Board, MA Parent Advisory Committee, MCS Principal’s Coffee, MA Faculty and Staff, MCS Faculty and Staff.
2.Prepare a “draft” report including potential impacts, guiding principles and potential actions/steps.
3.The DSTF members will present the “draft” report to the School Board on June 8, 2010.
•At the School Board’s discretion, members of the DSTF are willing to continue this effort during the 2010-2011 school year. The DSTF’s tasks would include:
1.Present the “draft” report to the same groups listed above in early fall and solicit feedback from all groups.
2.Engage building administrators in the process of reviewing, organizing and summarizing feedback to create a final report to be presented to the School Board in November 2010.
3.Update the Part 1 Demographics Report when 2009-2010 statewide enrollment numbers become available.