ACFI Monitoring Report – August2016

Background

  • In 2013-14 and 2014-15 annual real growth of about 3.4% and 7.4% in the daily average ACFI were higher than projections of 3.2% and 5.6%, respectively.
  • In 2015-16, the annual real growth was 5.2%. This was higher than the initial projection of 3.2%.
  • In 2016-17, annual real (or non indexed) growth was projected at about 1.7%. Effective indexation was 1.3% implying a nominal growth of 3.0%.These figures include changes to ACFI beginning 1 July 2016 and 1 January 2017.

Summary of August2016 Data

Average daily ACFI subsidyfor the period ofAugust2016 (1 July 2016 to 31August2016) was $172.52comparedto a budget of $172.59.

If real growth for the year continues at the rate observed year-to-date, annual growth will be 1.9%.This is lower than the2015 MYEFO projected annual growth rate (changes to the scoring matrix on 1 July) of2.6%but higher than the 2016 Budget projection of 1.7% (which takes account of 1 January 2017 changes).

Actual cumulative growth for the financial year to end ofAugust 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 was 4.2% (equal to projected cumulative growth)

  • By domain, the growth was 3.2% for ADL, 2.8% for BEH and 6.7% for CHC
  • Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory had growth higher than 4.2%

Figure 1.Real Growth in ACFI[1]Figure 2. Nominal Growth in ACFI

CHC Claiming behaviour changes since 1 July 2016

Since 1 July 2016, there has been a marked change in provider claiming behaviour in CHC. In particular the proportion claiming DC (which was reclassified from high to medium) has dropped from 26% of claim days to 9% and the proportion claiming DD (which attracts the high classification) has increased from 10% to 20%. For newly admitted residents DC has fallen from 21% to 7% and DD increased from 9% to 18% (see figure below).

Figure 3. Trend of DC and DD for Newly Admitted residents (First appraisals)


*For newly admitted residents from 1 July 2016 until 31 August 2016 by claim days

Overall changes in ACFI

The following charts show overall trends in ACFI. Claims peaked sharply prior to June 2016 and returned towards historical trend in August 2016.

Figure 4. Daily Average $/Day Trend by Month – 2016/17 Dollars

Table 1: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by State

State / Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Projected National / $163.46 / $172.59 / 5.6% / 4.2%
Actual National / $163.46 / $172.52 / 5.5% / 4.2%
NSW / $160.85 / $169.60 / 5.4% / 4.1%
VIC / $166.56 / $177.12 / 6.3% / 5.0%
QLD / $161.33 / $170.01 / 5.4% / 4.0%
WA / $168.54 / $177.38 / 5.2% / 3.9%
SA / $165.55 / $172.66 / 4.3% / 3.0%
TAS / $157.19 / $167.72 / 6.7% / 5.3%
ACT / $163.93 / $167.32 / 2.1% / 0.8%
NT / $162.35 / $173.67 / 7.0% / 5.6%

*The difference between the year to date projected national figure presented in the table and the annual projection of 1.7% relates to the month of the report. (ie this shows July 2016 to August 2016 relative to July 2015 to August 2015 whereas the annual projection shows July 2016 until June 2017.)

Table 2: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Remoteness

Remoteness / Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Major Cities of Australia / $167.20 / $176.21 / 5.4% / 4.0%
Inner Regional Australia / $155.91 / $165.15 / 5.9% / 4.6%
Outer Regional Australia / $154.00 / $162.98 / 5.8% / 4.5%
Remote Australia / $130.83 / $142.86 / 9.2% / 7.8%
Very Remote Australia / $143.02 / $150.51 / 5.2% / 3.9%

Table 3: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Organization Type

Organization Type / Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Not-For-Profit / $156.74 / $165.76 / 5.8% / 4.4%
For-Profit / $176.40 / $184.94 / 4.8% / 3.5%
Government / $144.25 / $152.36 / 5.6% / 4.3%

Table 4: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Provider Size

Provider Size* / Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
0-41 / $137.14 / $143.50 / 4.6% / 3.3%
41-74 / $152.61 / $160.92 / 5.5% / 4.1%
74-131 / $158.50 / $167.94 / 6.0% / 4.6%
131-499 / $161.90 / $171.24 / 5.8% / 4.4%
500-999 / $167.18 / $176.09 / 5.3% / 4.0%
1000+ / $170.21 / $178.49 / 4.9% / 3.5%

*Based on full time equivalent residents per year for 2015-16. Only includes providers active during July 2015.

Table 5: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by ACFI Category

Average ACFI Category Subsidy / Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
ADL / $86.68 / $90.81 / 4.8% / 3.2%
BEH / $26.57 / $27.72 / 4.3% / 2.8%
CHC / $50.21 / $53.99 / 7.5% / 6.7%

Table 6: Cumulative proportion of total days by ACFI Level and ACFI Category

ADL / BEH / CHC
ACFI Level / Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016 / Change ADL / Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016 / Change BEH / Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016 / Change CHC
H / 52.3% / 56.4% / 4.0% / 61.7% / 64.3% / 2.5% / 53.2% / 60.7% / 7.5%
M / 30.2% / 29.5% / -0.6% / 20.7% / 20.4% / -0.4% / 25.6% / 23.6% / -1.9%
L / 16.6% / 13.5% / -3.1% / 12.3% / 11.0% / -1.3% / 17.2% / 12.8% / -4.4%
N / 0.9% / 0.6% / -0.3% / 5.3% / 4.3% / -0.9% / 4.0% / 2.8% / -1.1%

Table 7: Cumulative proportion of total days by ADL Scores and ADL Question

Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016
ADL Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Nutrition / 4.8% / 19.2% / 57.8% / 18.2% / 3.7% / 16.5% / 62.2% / 17.6%
Mobility / 2.9% / 5.3% / 37.0% / 54.7% / 2.1% / 3.9% / 35.5% / 58.5%
Personal Hygiene / 0.6% / 7.1% / 11.4% / 80.9% / 0.4% / 6.1% / 10.0% / 83.5%
Toileting / 5.6% / 13.9% / 13.8% / 66.7% / 4.1% / 11.9% / 13.6% / 70.4%
Continence / 16.6% / 3.2% / 5.1% / 75.0% / 14.3% / 2.7% / 4.6% / 78.4%

Table 8: Cumulative proportion of total days by BEH Scores and BEH Question

Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016
BEH Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Cognitive Skills / 10.7% / 28.5% / 32.4% / 28.5% / 9.3% / 27.8% / 34.2% / 28.7%
Wandering / 76.5% / 6.8% / 4.6% / 12.1% / 79.4% / 6.1% / 4.1% / 10.4%
Verbal / 13.3% / 12.5% / 17.7% / 56.5% / 11.9% / 11.7% / 18.2% / 58.2%
Physical / 26.0% / 14.4% / 16.2% / 43.5% / 25.3% / 14.6% / 17.4% / 42.8%
Depression / 39.0% / 30.1% / 15.9% / 15.0% / 36.8% / 30.3% / 16.8% / 16.2%

Table 9: Cumulative proportion of total days by CHC Scores

Jul 2015 To Aug 2015 / Jul 2016 To Aug 2016
CHC Question / Q12A / Q12B / Q12C / Q12D / Q12A / Q12B / Q12C / Q12D
Q11A / 0.7% / 0.3% / 0.9% / 0.2% / 0.5% / 0.2% / 0.9% / 0.2%
Q11B / 3.1% / 5.7% / 7.1% / 8.2% / 2.1% / 4.4% / 7.2% / 10.7%
Q11C / 5.4% / 4.8% / 8.4% / 11.8% / 3.9% / 3.5% / 7.8% / 14.1%
Q11D / 2.0% / 8.3% / 24.7% / 8.6% / 1.3% / 6.7% / 26.2% / 10.3%

Table 10: Actual Average ACFI per day – Monthly and Cumulative

ACFI / Jan 16 / Feb 16 / Mar 16 / Apr 16 / May 16 / Jun 16
Monthly ACFI / $166.56 / $167.12 / $167.72 / $168.25 / $168.99 / $170.61
Cumulative ACFI / $165.02 / $165.26 / $165.54 / $165.79 / $166.08 / $166.45
ACFI / Jul 16 / Aug 16 / Sep 16 / Oct 16 / Nov 16 / Dec 16
Monthly ACFI / $172.51 / $172.53
Cumulative ACFI* / $172.51 / $172.52

*Cumulative ACFI resets to reflect new financial year
*2016/17 values include indexation

Figure 5.ACFI Category - Change in Proportion of Total Care Days Year to Date – Year on Year*

*Compares change in proportion of care days for 1 July to 31Augustbetween 2015/16 and 2016/17

*All $ values are based on ACFI Question Responses,

[1]2015/16 projection was revised up to 5.2% in May 2016 Budget

2016/17 actual annual estimates is based on 2015 MYEFO changes only