Proposed Contribution to The Handbook of Renewable Energy – Volume 3 – Wind Energy
Professor G. Bothun, Dept. of Physics, University of Oregon
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Potential Title: Wind Scalability and Performance in the real World
Abstract
We are engaged in researching the real world performance, costs, and supply chain issues regarding the construction of wind turbines in the United States for the purpose of quantitatively determining various aspects of scalability in the wind industry. Our sample consists of all ON SHORE wind farms that have come into operation as of January 2011. Most of these wind farms have individual turbine capacities of 2-2.5 MW; recently 3 MW turbines have been installed in two locations. As of July 1, 2014 the Horse Hollow development in Texas has a nameplate capacity of 736 MW while 6 other locations exceed 500 MW. Hence, commercial scale individual complexes are now here.
For our sub-sample with complete data we derive the following scale factors:
- Construction Cost per MW (CMW)= $2.06 +/- 0.33
- Capacity factor range (CF): 0.24 – 0.37
- Permanent jobs created: 1 per 10 MW of nameplate
- Cost index = CMW/CF = 7.05 +/- 1.97 ($per generated watt)
The data indicate a reduction of cost index as CF increases and that CF locally increases as more turbines are added. This promotes scalability. At the moment, besides transmission line issues, annual blade production is the limiting factor in wind build out.
The feasibility of wind power as a renewable form of electrical energy generation has been clearly borne out in the US and Europe over the last decade or so. At the time of this writing (Oct 2014), within the US there are now several individual wind farms or wind farm complexes that would be considered as utility scale (e.g. > 500 MW nameplate power). Of course, wind is an intermittent source of electricity generation and the overall capacity factory (CF) must be properly considered (and measured) for a reliable evaluation of wind energy's potential contribution to the overall portfolio of electricity generation of the US. In addition, the three main considerations for development of wind farms are: a) land areas with reliable wind power, b) access to existing transmission line infrastructure, and c) a power purchase agreement (PPA). In most cases the PPA is driven either at the Federal level (via the production tax credit mechanism) or at the State level via the adoption of renewable portfolio standards. These are the two main mechanisms that have provided incentive for wind farm build out. The weighted combination of these three factors determines the annual rate of wind turbine installation.
Over the 7-year period, 2006 --- 2012, installed wind capacity grew from 11,450 MW to 60,012 MW. This 5.25 factor of growth corresponds to an annual growth rate of 23.7 % or a doubling time of 3 years. This is an astonishing high growth rate, which, if sustained for the next 10 years (2013-2022) would yield a total name plate capacity of 475 GW for wind, which would be approximately 40% of the entire US electrical generating nameplate capacity. It is precisely this high relative growth rate that promotes policy optimism with respect to the viability of wind energy has a significant component of America's renewable energy portfolio.
why scalable --> wind trubine growth, supply chain, transmission line infrastructure all combine ...
61946 MW 46,300 turbines
fracking stuff comparing ng to wind
first half 2014 835 MW 478 turbines (217,135) (619,343)
Ben - latest turbine MW
14,600 proposed end of June 2014
9400 MW of PPA but 3800 not yet started
8385 installed 4th quarter 2012
Texas Horse Hollow project dominating
The deployment of wind based electricity generation in the United States has seen high relative growth rates over the past few years until the last two years which has seen stagnant growth.
However, as of end 2013, the federal tax production credit was allowed, by Congress to lapse.
Last year got off to a shaky start for the U.S. wind energy industry, but new project construction and installed generation capacity took off following belated Congressional extension of the federal renewable energy production tax credit (PTC). By year’s end a record number of wind energy projects were under construction, and new wind energy generation records had been set across the country.
By the end of 2013, 46,100 wind turbines on 905 utility-scale wind farms with rated generation capacity of 61,110 megawatts (MW) were online, producing more than 4 percent of U.S. electricity generation, according to the American Wind Energy Association’s (AWEA), “U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report 2013.”
Wind energy investment has been growing at a 19.5 percent annual rate over the past five years, with an average $15 billion per year invested in new projects. With costs dropping 43 percent between 2008 and 2012, wind energy is now providing clean, renewable electricity to the equivalent of 15.5 million U.S. homes across 39 states and Puerto Rico, and the U.S. economy and society is benefiting in numerous other ways.
Momentum is still very much dependent on the federal wind energy PTC, however. As Congress once again debates whether or not to extend the PTC, wind energy industry companies, their employees and suppliers can only watch, wait and make contingency plans.
Wind energy comes of age
U.S. wind energy growth and development has been remarkable over the past five years and more, notwithstanding successive boom-bust cycles – the result of the waxing and waning of the wind energy PTC.
Whether its building or operating wind farms or manufacturing, the wind energy industry is now present in all 50 U.S. states and Puerto Rico. In a surprisingly short period of time, wind energy has become the lowest cost means of producing electricity in a growing number of U.S. markets, accounting for 31 percent of new U.S. electric generation capacity over the past five years. As the AWEA points out:
“The 905 U.S. wind projects span 39 states while the 560 manufacturing facilities span 43 states. The majority of U.S. Congressional Districts, over 70 percent, have a wind project, a manufacturing facility or, both.”
Regionally, wind-generated electricity accounted for 60 percent of supply in the Pacific Northwest, Plains states and Midwest, and as much as 80 percent in the Upper Midwest between 2011 and 2013, the AWEA highlights. Wind energy was the largest source of new generation capacity across the U.S., with the exception of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.
Touting the industry’s success, AWEA President Tom Kiernan stated:
“Increasingly, America is powered by wind energy. As utilities and Americans become more familiar with this affordable and reliable energy source, they want more of it. Our industry is responding with record construction numbers, more business for American factories, and more deployment of wind energy that has become a new cash crop for our farmers and ranchers.”
Then, of course, there are the social and environmental values and benefits associated with producing electricity with zero carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, essentially zero in the way of land, water and air pollution, and drastically lower water use as compared to fossil fuel alternatives. The AWEA highlights:
“Operational wind energy projects, combined with the projects under construction, will avoid 115 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually—more than 5 percent of U.S. power sector emissions—while avoiding the consumption of over 36 billion gallons of water each year, because wind turbines use virtually no water in operation.”
Realizing wind energy potential: A look ahead
Looking ahead, the AWEA highlights the boost anticipated as a result of growing investment to expand transmission capacity from wind energy facilities to demand centers.
“More than 10,000 MW of new transmission capacity was completed in 2013, and near-term projects could deliver another 60,000 MW of wind energy – allowing a doubling of the total amount of capacity installed today. These power lines result from years of work, which must continue if growth is to be sustained.”
Driven by ongoing technological advances, declining costs and the Jan. 2, 2013 extension of the wind energy PTC, last year’s results were dramatic. Equally dramatic have been the effects of allowing the federal wind energy PTC to expire. That was clearly demonstrated yet again in late 2012, as the AWEA recounts in its news release:
“The supply chain had slowed down during the months preceding the threatened expiration. As a result of the slowdown and the months needed to region momentum, the industry saw a 92 percent drop in installations, down from a record 13,131 MW in 2012 to just 1,087 MW in 2013.”
The bust proved short-lived and was to be followed by a boom following Congress’s Jan. 2 renewal. As 2013 drew to a close, a record 12,000 MW and 100 projects were under construction across the U.S.
Unfortunately, for the U.S. wind energy participants and society at large, the debate as to whether or not to renew the PTC for wind energy is playing out yet again this year.
Speaking for the industry, AWEA Kiernan said:
“In the last several years, and highlighted by the tremendous industry activity that ramped up in 2013, U.S. wind energy has shown what it can do for America. The time is now for Congress to give the industry a green light to keep contributing jobs and clean electrons to America, by providing a stable business environment for further investment.”
he production tax credit for renewable energy expired—most recently—at the end of 2013, and it’s unclear if Congress will renew it again. The program gives wind farms 2.3 cents for every kilowatt-hour of renewable energy they pump into the U.S. grid. Since it was enacted in 1992, the incentive has driven a sevenfold increase in the number of U.S. turbines. “Wind has grown so much that it’s approaching hydroelectric in scale,” says Gwen Bredehoeft, an analyst with the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Without the tax credit, Bredehoeft says, new turbine construction will probably stall until at least 2030, when the country will need more energy generation. Until then, this is the American wind-energy landscape.
Our ideal power generation mix for America is⅓,⅓, ⅓ – a third fossil fuel, a third renewables and a third nuclear (Progressive Policy Institute). This mix could be achieved by 2040 and would meet all of our electricity demand, satisfy our environmental obligations and fulfill our climate goals.
For the renewable portion, wind would constitute about half, up to a trillion kWhrs/year, depending upon the growth of total energy in America. This would require construction of almost 400,000 large megawatt turbines. A little less than 100,000 turbines exist now.
But can wind generation reach these levels given its intermittency and the need to load-follow with another source like natural gas?
The short answer is yes, providing there is careful planning and placement in regions with the highest capacity factors, like Tornado Alley, and back-up with combined cycle natural gas together with sufficient baseload sources like nuclear and hydro. These numbers depend on a capacity factor for wind between 25% and 30%.
If capacity factors are over 40%, as in Tornado Alley, many fewer turbines are needed. This is extremely important since each megawatt wind turbine requires 500 tons of steel and 1000 cubic yards of concrete to build, even more to connect to the grid.
Capacity factor (cf) is the amount of energy actually produced over a year divided by the amount that the system could produce if it ran at capacity perfectly, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The higher the capacity factor, the more efficient and cost-effective is the energy produced, and the less problematic is the intermittency.
Exelon Wind generated almost 4 billion kWhrs of electricity in 2013, mostly in Tornado Alley. Source: Exelon
Many utilities are emplacing wind generation Tornado Alley (Exelon Wind), but the optimal coupling of wind generation and Tornado Alley is nowhere more obvious than near Beaumont, Kansas at the Elk River Wind Farm. Built in 2005 for $200 million (APEX Energy), the Farm uses 100 GE 1.5-megawatt (MW) turbines to produce 550,000,000 kilowatt-hours (kWhrs) of energy annually with a capacity factor of 42%, the highest continuous capacity factor of any wind farm to date.
But for the full story on wind, it’s best to talk to Greg Wortham, the mayor of Sweetwater, Texas where 1,371 wind turbines produced more megawatts last year than the more than 5,000 turbines in all the wind farms in California. Known as the Mayor of Wind, Wortham will tell you this is because his wind turbines are in an ideal place where the wind blows hard and often, i.e., where the capacity factor exceeds 40%.
So, what’s to stop wind from expanding dramatically in Tornado Alley? It may be politics. Tornado Alley is in the heart of America’s Heartland where wind energy has little political support.
Mayor Wortham became the face of the Texas Miracle that brought thousands of green jobs to the petroleum plains of the reddest of states, making Texas the nation’s leader in wind power. This burst of wind in the Texas portion of Tornado Alley began as a non-partisan effort to make money and create jobs following the closing of oil refineries and the agricultural devastation from years of drought in the region.
But this success story has put Sweetwater in the middle of an unlikely battle with the Koch Brothers and the Tea Party who want to exterminate wind in the State of Texas, and everywhere else (The Mayor of Wind). The explosion of fracking has resurged oil and gas, and the fossil fuel industry has always felt wind as a threat. Many Texan Representatives are supporting an effort to eliminate the wind tax credits and the federal wind tax incentives that are key to wind power expansion in their own districts. These credits were first passed by Bush 41.
The irony is that over 80% of all wind energy capacity in America is within red Congressional districts, and wind-power royalties mostly help farmers and ranchers stay on their land.
We need an all-of-the-above energy plan that includes fossil fuel, renewables and nuclear, and will for sometime. Powering up Tornado Alley with wind turbines should be embraced by everyone.
It’s the best place for it. Just ask the birds.
WASHINGTON – The Energy Department released two new reports today showcasing record growth across the U.S. wind market -- increasing America’s share of clean, renewable energy and supporting tens of thousands of jobs nationwide.According to these reports, the United States continues to be one of the world’s largest and fastest growing wind markets. In 2012, wind energy became the number one source of new U.S. electricity generation capacity for the first time – representing 43 percent of all new electric additions and accounting for $25 billion in U.S. investment.
In the first four years of the Obama Administration, American electricity generation from wind and solar power more than doubled. President Obama’s Climate Action Plan makes clear that the growth of clean, renewable wind energy remains a critical part of an all-of-the-above energy strategy that reduces harmful greenhouse gas emissions, diversifies our energy economy and brings innovative technologies on line. The Obama Administration has committed to another doubling of the renewable electricity generation from energy resources like wind power by 2020.
“The tremendous growth in the U.S. wind industry over the past few years underscores the importance of consistent policy that ensures America remains a leader in clean energy innovation,” said Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. “As the fastest growing source of power in the United States, wind is paving the way to a cleaner, more sustainable future that protects our air and water and provides affordable, clean renewable energy to more and more Americans.”
The tremendous growth in the overall U.S. wind industry has led directly to more American jobs throughout a number of sectors and at factories and power plants across the country. According to industry estimates, the wind sector employs over 80,000 American workers, including workers at manufacturing facilities up and down the supply chain, as well as engineers and construction workers who build wind installations.
Wind Technologies Market Report
The Energy Department and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory today released the 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report – detailing the latest trends in the U.S. wind power market.
Last year, over 13 gigawatts (GW) of new wind power capacity were added to the U.S. grid – nearly double the wind capacity deployed in 2011. This tremendous growth helped America’s total wind power capacity surpass 60 GW at the end of 2012 – representing enough capacity to power more than 15 million homes each year, or as many homes as in California and Washington state combined. The country’s cumulative installed wind energy capacity has increased more than 22-fold since 2000.