Report on Texas Growth Occupations - 2017

I.Executive Summary

Texas Labor Code Section 302.019 requires the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) to gather and study information relating to existing and projected shortages in high-wage, high-demand occupations in Texas annually, including for selected industries.

This report summarizes findings relating to existing and projected shortages in high-wage, high-demand occupations by industry in Texas. Data included in this report was the most current data available as of the end of fiscal year 2017. Thus,the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data covers the period through first quarter 2017. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Help Wanted Online (HWOL) data cover the period through the September 2017 estimates.

As of September 2017, Texas has experienced 89 consecutive months of annualized employment growth.

Texas remains driven by a continued economic shift towards high-skilled jobs in the Business and Professional Services sector, while the state’s rapid population growth and aging baby-boomer population increases demand for service sector jobs, primarily Leisure and Hospitality and Education and Health Services. These three industries, in addition to Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, account for over 55 percent of the jobs in Texas.

The occupations showing the highest current demand according to the HWOL data are typical of the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, Health Care, and Transportation and Warehousing sectors. These industries also currently show the highest employment growth rates.

For this report, TWC staff measured industry employment levels over the most recent available five-year period (first quarter of 2012 to first quarter of 2017) using employment levels reported by Texas employers under TWC’s QCEW program. This report included industry-level employment data along with HWOL data to provide comparison and context.

This report contains TWC’s most current long- and short-term projections for employment growth in Texas. Long-term projections were released in September 2016 with a base year of 2014 covering the period of 2014 to 2024. Short-term projections were released in February 2017 with a base year of 2016 covering the period of 2016 to 2018. As a result, this report uses current employment statistics programs such as QCEW, CES and HWOL to better understand the current economic situation. The next short-term employment projections, covering the period of 2017 to 2019, will be released in the Spring of 2018. The next long-term employment projections, covering the period of 2016 to 2026, will be released in Fall 2018.

Due to shifts in the economy, required education and job training for the occupations in this report ranges from professional occupations requiring a college degree, to skilled trades in construction or manufacturing that require specific technical skills training. Some jobs in this report require no post-secondary education. However, higher-paying occupations tend to require:

a)a bachelor’s degree and specific technical skill training, or

b)some form of post-secondary education, specific technical skill training, and additional on-the-job training.

Since no official definition of a high wage occupation exists, TWC focused in this report on growing occupations that pay more than the Texas median wage of $35,484 per year.

In preparing the projections, TWC examined more than 800 occupations, segmenting them for specific industries. Those growth occupations are listed by industry sector in Section II. For more information on TWC’s methodologies, please refer to the Methodology section at the end of this report.

II.Growth Occupations in Growth Industries

Increasing populations and higher demand for goods and services continue to drive demand for workers in the United States, particularly in Texas and its surrounding states. In some key occupations, local supply has at times struggled to keep up with demand.

This report focuses on the most in-demand occupations in Texas from 2014 through 2024 (long-term) and 2016 through 2018 (short-term). It is important to remember that even similar job titles will require unique combinations of technical skills, education, work experience, and soft skills based on each employer’s unique needs.

This section identifies occupations within major industries as defined in Chapter 302. The charts display staffing and wage information for a specific occupation in that specific industry. Occupations are then ranked by the projected employment change in Texas from 2014 to 2024. Listed industry employment data corresponds with that industry’s North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code.

A.Construction

The construction industry is projected to grow by 27.8 percent from 2014 to 2024, creating the need for 177,390 workers over 10 years. Occupational projections also indicate that the highest demand will be for supervisors and for specialty trade workers to fill positions such as Electricians, Plumbers, and Carpenters.

In first quarter 2017, employment with Construction companies reached 698,844 workers. The industry has grown 23.8 percent over the last five years according to QCEW data and demand for construction workers continues to rise. Texas second quarter 2017 home sales rose significantly, while housing inventory remains at 4.1 months, driving average home prices up 6.8 percent from last year. These trends indicate strong demand for residential, commercial and industrial building projects.

Construction occupations projected to add the most jobs in the long-and short-termand pay above the Texas median wage of $35,484 are listed below.

Long-Term

Short-Term

B.Manufacturing

Texas produces more than 11 percent of the total manufactured goods in the United States. It also exports more goods by dollar value to Mexico and Canada than to any other country. Despite a strong dollar, which typically reduces demand for exports, the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (DFRB) manufacturing production index posted 15 consecutive positive readings in September, suggesting manufacturing output continues to expand in Texas.

The Manufacturing industry has changed in recent years with increased automation, driving up manufacturing wages for 94 consecutive months according to the DFRB monthly Manufacturing Outlook survey. This is likely due to an increase in demand for higher-skilled employees. These ongoing changes may have fed the contraction of 11,000 manufacturing jobs from first quarter 2012 to first quarter 2017. The industry began showing positive growth starting in November 2016.

Manufacturing industry employment is expected to increase by 7.2 percent by 2024. This increase spans a broad range of skill sets including Industrial Machinery Mechanics; Computer Controlled Machine Tool Operators; and Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers, among others as shown below.

Long-Term

Short-Term

C.Agriculture and Forestry

Though the Agriculture and Forestry industry is one of Texas’ smallest in terms of employment, it leads the nation in many ways. The industry produces the most cattle, cotton, hay, sheep, goats and mohair of any state in the nation.[1] Texas also has the most farms and ranches in the country: 248,800 covering 130.2 million acres.[2]

In Texas and across the nation, this industry has been using fewer and fewer workers in recent decades as farming methods have become more efficient. Farms now tend to be fewer in number, larger and more expensive to operate, but also much more productive.

From first quarter of 2012 to first quarter of 2017 the Agriculture and Forestry industry in Texas grew by 6.5 percent, adding 3,617 jobs. This trend is also supported by the Conference Board’s HWOL data which has shown a 64 percent increase in job postings over the year. The industry is projected to add nearly 6,700 jobs by 2024, growing to 64,850 jobs total.

Agriculture and Forestry industry jobs projected to add the most positions over the long-and short-termare listed below.

Long-Term

Short-Term

*Due to limited coverage in this industry, many agricultural workers are self-employed and are not covered by Unemployment Insurance and are not sampled by the OES program.

D.Health Care and Social Assistance

The Health Care and Social Assistance industry grew to 1,530,608 positions in first quarter 2017. The industry has averaged 3.1 percent annual growth over the past five years, resulting in 219,818 jobs added. According to long-term industry projections, Health Care and Social Assistance employment is expected to grow to approximately 1,892,000 jobs by 2024, posting the strongest growth of the 11 industries in this report at 32.2 percent.

Ambulatory Health Care Services, which consists of doctors’ and dentists’ offices, outpatient care centers and medical and diagnostic laboratories, comprises about 47 percent of the Health Care and Social Assistance industry. Ambulatory Health Care Services has averaged 3.2 percent annual growth over the past five years, slightly faster than Health Care and Social Assistance overall.

A consistent need for nurses drives occupational demand within the Health Care and Social Assistance industry. HWOL showsthe industry job postings are down14.5 percent over-the-year perhaps largely due toRegistered Nurses (RNs) postings declining20 percent over the year. RNs account for one in four job postings in the industry. Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses (LVNs), Nursing Assistants and Medical Assistants are also among the top 5 most listed positions. This historically strong demand is reflected in long-term occupational projections with RNs and LVNs projected to add the most positions over the coming years.

Health Care and Social Assistance occupations projected to add the most jobs in the long-and short-term are listed below.

Long-Term

Short-Term

E.Educational Services

Demand for Educational Services will continue to grow in Texas due to an expanding population. From 2010 to 2016, Texas added 2,716,496 people--more than any other state in the nation. During this span, school enrollment for persons three years of age and older jumped by 405,370 students, a 5.6 percent increase. Enrollment grew even more drastically over 10 years with 1,036,409 students added since 2006, a 15.8 percent increase.

QCEW data shows Educational Services employment added 95,530 jobs over five years beginning first quarter 2012, an8.6 percent gain that puts industry employment at 1,210,629 jobs for first quarter 2017. The industry is expected to expand by another 21.7 percent from 2014 to 2024 according to the Texas Workforce Commission’s long-term industry projections.HWOL has shown strong industry demand by adding 10.4 percent more postings over the year.

TWC’s Occupational projections data estimate that Elementary, Secondary, and Middle School Teachers as well as Educational Administrators for both public and private Texas schools will all increase by 24.6 percent by 2024. Educational Services occupations projected to add the most jobs in the long-and short-termare listed below.

Long-Term

Short-Term

F.Transportation and Warehousing

The Transportation and Warehousing industry grew to an estimated 501,546 positions in first quarter 2017. The industry has averaged 3.8 percent annual growth over the past five years, adding 84,361 jobs. According to long-term industry projections, Transportation and Warehousing employment is expected to grow to approximately 561,000 positions by 2024.

Truck Transportation makes up about 27 percent of the overall Transportation and Warehousing industry, and has averaged 2.3 percent annual growth over the past five years. According to HWOL, Transportation and Warehousing postings are down 17 percent over the year largely due to local general freight trucking being down 45 percent over the year. However, job postings for long-distance general freight trucking, specialized freight, and general warehousing and storage are up over the year. Long-term occupational projections reflect this demand, as Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Drivers and Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers are expected to add the most positions in the overall Transportation and Warehousing industry over 10 years.

Warehousing and Storage employment grew at an 11.8 percent annualized rate over the past five years, representing the addition of 34,891 jobs. This accounts for about 41 percent of the overall employment gains in Transportation and Warehousing over the past five years. This trend is expected to continue as Amazon and other online retailers expand their distribution infrastructure in Texas.

Transportation and Warehousing occupations projected to add the most jobs in the long-and short-termare listed below.

Long-Term

Short-Term

G.Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction