Montserrat Survey of Living ConditionsExecutive Summary
Montserrat Survey of Living Conditions (MSLC)
Executive Summary
1Objectives and Approach
This study of poverty and hardship on Montserrat is one of a series of Country Poverty Assessments (CPAs) undertaken throughout the Caribbean since 1995. Its primary objectives are:
- To identify the extent, characteristics and causes of poverty in Montserrat
- To evaluate the effectiveness of current policies and programmes in terms of their impact on the poor and vulnerable groups of the population
- To make recommendations for future policies and programmes to contribute to the reduction of poverty in the country.
The MSLC involved four principal components:
- A review of available reports and statistics
- A sample household survey (the Survey of Living Conditions/ SLC) which collected information on household expenditure and incomes, general housing and household characteristics, personal demographic and employment information.
- A series of Participatory Poverty Assessments (PPAs)[1]targeted at communities across the country and identified vulnerable groups such as the unemployed, youth, the elderly and single parents.
- A series of meetings and discussions to identify current programmes related to the reduction of poverty and the provision of assistance to vulnerable groups (the Institutional Analysis).
The MSLCwas a joint undertaking of a National Assessment Team (NAT) including members from government and non-government organisations, and a Team of Consultants (TOC) appointed by the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB). The study started in late 2007. Data collection continued throughout 2008 and was completed in early 2009. Delays were encountered in the processing of the household survey data with the result that the Draft Final Report was not submitted until July 2011. This Report was presented to Montserratian stakeholders and the CDB in April 2012. Comments made at these consultations have been incorporated into the Final MSLC Report.
The information contained in this report relates to 2008/09. Some of the statistical information presented will have been superseded while there are also likely to have been changes in the institutional and policy contexts. Although it would have been preferable if the study had been completed earlier, two benefits arise from the delayed completion. Firstly, conclusions and recommendations can be reviewed to see whether they are still relevant today. Secondly, the Government of Montserrat (GOM) is about to embark on a review of their Sustainable Development Plan 2008-2012 (SDP). This review provides an ideal mechanism for some of the Poverty Action Programmerecommendations to be rapidly incorporated into the new version of the MSDP.
2Background and Context(Chapter 2)
2.1Geographic and Historical Setting
Montserrat is one of the Leeward Islands in the Eastern Caribbean, lying 43km south-west of Antigua and 64km north-west of Guadeloupe. It is approximately 102 sq km (16 km long and 11 km wide) and growing slowly due to volcanic deposits on the southeast coast of the island. The topography is entirely volcanic and very mountainous, with a rugged coastline with dramatic rock faced cliffs rising from the sea.
Montserrat was populated by Arawak and Carib people when it was claimed by Christopher Columbus for Spainon his second voyage in1493. The island fell under English control in 1632 when a group of Irish fleeing anti-Roman Catholic sentiment in Saint Kitts and Nevis settled there. The import of slaves started at much the same time and an economy based on sugar, rum,arrowroot and Sea Islandcotton was established during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Slavery was abolished in 1834 following the general emancipation of slaves within the British Empirewhich occurred in that year.
Falling sugar prices during the nineteenth century had an adverse effect on the island's economy and in 1869 the British philanthropist Joseph Sturge formed the Montserrat Company to buy sugar estates that were no longer economically viable. The company planted limes and started production of the island's famous lime juice, set up a school, and sold parcels of land to the inhabitants of the island, with the result that much of Montserrat came to be owned by smallholders.
From 1871 to 1958 Montserrat was administered as part of the Federal Colony of the Leeward Islands, becoming a province of the short-lived West Indies Federation from 1958 to 1962.It is currently one of Britain’s remaining overseas territories with the Queen as head of state, a governor appointed by the Queen and a democratically elected Chief Minister.
The last years of the 20th century, however, brought two events which devastated the island. In September 1989, Hurricane Hugo struck the island with full force, damaging over 90 percent of the buildings and virtually wiping out the then burgeoning tourist trade. Within a few years, however, the island had largely recovered - only to be struck again by the major eruptions of the Soufriere Hills volcano in 1995 and 1997.
Two and half years of intense volcanic activity saw the southern, most populated and most fertile part of the island, evacuated and declared unsafe. Plymouth, the capital and the territory’s industrial, commercial, and government centre, was almost totally destroyed along with the island’s airport and hospital; many people lost their houses and had to be evacuated. Over half the population left and a steep economic decline followed. Reconstruction efforts started in earnest in the early 2000s and the northern, habitable part of the islandnow has government offices, schools, a hospital and an airport along with new housing estates and much improved roads. The island however remains largely dependent on assistance from the British Government.
2.2Population
Throughout most of its recorded history the population of Montserrat has varied between 10,000 and 12,000 with a peak of 14,000 being achieved in 1946 (Table ES.1). However while the 1989 hurricane had only a minor impact on the population, the impact of the volcanic eruption has been catastrophic: in 1997, the population was around 3,400 – only 30% of the 1991 figure. By 2001, it had ‘recovered’ to around 4,500 and to 5,000 by 2006[2]. The impact of the eruption on the geographic distribution of population is shown in Figure ES1.
With a population as small as this, the start of completion of large construction projects can lead significant changes in population, as workers and their dependents arrive and leave; population growth rates can thus fluctuate significantly from year to year. Since 2000, live births and deaths have both averaged around 50 annually implying that there is a negligible natural increase in the population.
Table ES1. Population Change, 1881-2006 / Figure ES1. Population Distribution, 1991 and 2001Year / Population / Annual Growth rate
1881 / 10,083
1891 / 11,762 / 1.6%
1901 / 12,215 / 0.4%
1911 / 12,196 / 0.0%
1921 / 12,120 / -0.1%
1946 / 14,333 / 0.7%
1960 / 12,167 / -1.2%
1970 / 11,458 / -0.6%
1980 / 11,606 / 0.1%
1991 / 10,639 / -0.8%
1997 / 3,338 / -17.6%
2001 / 4,491 / 7.7%
2006 / 5,031 / 2.3%
/
The population of all age groups has declined since the eruption but these changes have not affected all age groups equally. In 2001, the main changes were the much increased proportion of population in the working age groups and a corresponding decrease in the population under the age of 15 whose proportion declined from just over a quarter to under 20%. By 2006, the proportion of the elderly had decreased largely due to the increased proportion of under 15s. The increased number of children implies both a general stabilisation of the population and that migrants are increasingly bringing their children. However the very low proportion of 15-24 year olds (11% compared with 17% in 1991), is clear evidence of a ‘brain-drain’ as school leavers depart to find tertiary education and employment off the island.
Average household size was 2.4 persons in 2008/09 which, while low by Caribbean standards, is slightly higher than after the eruption when it dropped to 2.1 persons. The proportion of households with spouses/ partners has increased to 38%, much higher than in 2001 when it was only 29% while the proportion of single person households had decreased from almost 50% in 2001 to 35%. Around 40% of households are female-headed, similar to the 1991 proportion. All these indicators reinforce the view that the population structure of the island is gradually stabilising from its post-eruption structure when a large number of households fragmented.
In 2008/09, 29% of household heads were foreign-born but a substantial proportion of these had achieved belonger status. If this group is excluded, the proportion of non-national heads on the island is around 15%.
2.3The Economy
The economy of Montserrat today is the result of an array of unique factors and developments following both Hurricane Hugo and the volcanic eruptions in which social and economic structures and the island’s infrastructure were decimated; large parts of the island were made (and remain to this day) uninhabitable.As a BritishOverseasTerritory, Montserrat has been able to access loans and grants from the United Kingdom to rebuild and Montserratians were able to leave their homes for jobs and family in the UK, thereby decreasing pressure on the post-eruption economy. In consequence, the recovering economy is based mainly on services (especially government) and construction, with little value added in the traditional sectors of tourism and agriculture (Figure ES2).
Through grants, loans and support from Montserratians living overseas, Montserratians have been able to maintain a reasonable material lifestyle[3], as measured by GDP per capita. In 2004, Montserratian GDP per capita in 2006 at around EC$22,000 was 50% higher than the ECCB average and 3rd highest of the eight member states.
Nevertheless, the current weakness of the economy is evident. In 2006, in constant dollars, GDP was only 53% of the level achieved in its pre-Hugo (1987) level (Figure ES3). Were it not for the fact that many Montserratians left the island following the volcanic activity, per capita economic activity would be much lower. The recent sluggish performance is largely the result of some large public sector projects being completed with only the mining and quarrying sector showing growth as a result of exports of volcanic sand. In 2008, the economy grew by around 4% but inflation almost reached 5% resulting in a decline in real GDP[4]. ECCB forecasts that the economy will continue to remain flat in the near term; rising international oil prices and the North American recession will further increase consumer prices.The Government of Montserrat is forecasting GDP growth of 3% in both 2008 and 2009 based on the start-up of construction projects at Little Bay and Government Headquarters, among others.
Figure ES2: Montserrat, GDP by Sector, 2006 / Figure ES3. Montserrat: GDP in constant EC$ millions, 1987-2006The Government Sector
Figure ES4: Government Expenditures and Revenues
Government activity is the main driver of the Montserrat economy. Given the natural disasters of the past 25 years, the contraction of economic activity and the need to rebuild infrastructure, government expenditures are greater than revenue inflows (FigureES4). The resulting negative balance is expected to continue over the short to medium terms.
Tax revenues (duties and levies, license fees, consumption tax, etc.) account for about 45% of Government revenue. On the expenditure side, personal emoluments[5] and pensions for government employees account for about 55% of Government expenditures.
Source: 2006 Annual Economic and Financial Review, ECCB
Total social spending (education, health and social welfare) rose from EC$15.6 million in 2002 to EC$23.4 million in 2007; around 1/3rd of this expenditure was on education and 2/3rds on health and social welfare. This expenditure has maintained a fairly constant share of total government recurrent expenditure of around 25%.
2.4Employment
Between 2001 and 2006, reconstruction activities led to employment increasing by almost 50% and unemployment dropping slightly to 12%. Women made up 44% of the active population. The pattern of employment also changed substantially between 1991 and 2001 with the government becoming by some margin the most important sector accounting for 45% of total employment – a pattern that had changed little by 2008/09 when the self employed accounted for 19% of those working and 35% were private sector employees. The principal trend in terms of occupational groupings, evident since 1991, is increasing proportions in both the most skilled (white collar) and least skilled (elementary) occupations; in contrast, the proportions of sales and skilled manual workers both decreased (Table ES2).
Table ES2. Employment Characteristics
Type of Employment / 1991 / 2001 / 2008/09 / Change 1991-2008/09Government/ Statutory Bodies / 27% / 45% / 46% / +19%
Private employee / 55% / 39% / 35% / -20%
Self employed / 18% / 16% / 19% / +1%
Occupational Grouping
Managerial, Professional, Technical / 24% / 30% / 34% / +10%
Clerical and Sales / 24% / 27% / 21% / -3%
Crafts and Skilled Manual / 34% / 25% / 18% / -16%
Unskilled Elementary / 18% / 18% / 26% / +8%
Total / 100% / 100% / 100%
Sources: 1991 and 2001 Censuses, Listing Survey 2006, SLC 2008/09
Employment in construction and government (including health and education) dominate the economy with around 60% of all employment. There is negligible employment in agriculture or manufacturing.
In 2001, non-nationals accounted for 22% of employment on the island. While they were found in all occupations and industrial sectors, the proportions vary substantially: non-nationals are ‘over-represented’[6] in the unskilled, craft and professional groups, i.e. at both at both ends of the skills continuum. In terms of industrial sectors, they provide at least 30% of employment in domestic service, hotels, construction and manufacturing; conversely, they are under-represented in government which is the most important employment sector of all.
2.5Education, Health and Housing
Education in Montserrat is compulsory for children between the ages of 5 and 14, and free up to the age of 17. Attendance is essentially 100% as is the transition from primary to secondary. Youth and adult literacy is also very high.
Health conditions in Montserrat are generally good:
- Life expectancy at birth was 81.0 years forwomen and 76.5 years for men with additional gains expected for both sexes. This compares favourably with other OECS islands.
- Only 1 infant death has been recorded since 1998 and none of children aged under 5 years. There were no reported cases of protein energy malnutrition.
- The most common recorded communicable diseases from 1998 to 2006 are respiratory infections (39%), influenza (33%) and gastroenteritis (14%). These diseases are prevalent in virtually every country. In contrast, there have been no cases of the communicable childhood diseases (measles, etc.) since 1998.
- Only 2 cases of AIDS have been recorded on the island since 1998 although 21 persons tested positive for HIV infection during the same period. Given that some of these left the island, the overall rate of incidence amongst adults (15-49 years) would be substantially below the Caribbean average.
Figure ES4: Housing Tenure, 1991, 2001, 2008
The main medical concerns at present are diabetes and hypertension which respectively afflict approximately 6% and 10% of the population; prevalence rates are not dissimilar to those in the USA Diabetes along with heart disease are the main causes of death (respectively 21% and 44% of all deaths between 2003 and 2006) with cancers (13%) accounting for a large proportion of the remainder. Another health concern is an increasing prevalence of dementia with many elderly persons receiving psychological servicesand with over 100 being cared for in government institutions.
Housing tenure has changed considerably since the eruption (Figure ES4) with the proportion of households owning their property decreasing by almost half from 72% to 38% between 1991 and 2001. Although there were increases in private renting and rent free housing, the major increase was in government rented accommodation which provided for one in every 6 households in 2001. Currently, the situation has improved substantially with the proportion of owned dwellings increasing to 59% with a corresponding decline in the rented sector – a reflection factors such as the construction of Lookout and the closure of temporary hostels.
The great majority of houses in Montserrat are single dwellings, have piped water, proper sanitation, electricity and use gas/ LPG for cooking. Overcrowding (defined as households with fewer living rooms than persons), affected 21% of households, a similar proportion to that prevailing in 1991[7]. Nonetheless, around 30% of dwellings do not have concrete roofs – although this is substantially lower than the equivalent 2001 proportion, 45%.
3Poverty in Montserrat (Chapter 3)
3.1The Definition of Poverty
Poverty is most often defined on the basis of an indigence (or severe poverty) linebased on minimum food requirements, and a general poverty line (minimum food requirements plus an element of non-food expenditure) derived according to the CDB methodology. In 2009, the annual indigence line is around EC$4,735 (c. EC$13/US$5 per day)for an adult male while the poverty line is around EC$14,400 (c. EC$39.5/US$15 per day).
Current definitions of poverty are more wide-ranging than those based on income alone. They include consideration of, inter alia, living conditions, access to health and education, and less easily defined notions such as vulnerability, voicelessness, powerlessness, and lack of opportunity. The general concept of ‘well-being’ has been used in this study to bracket these non-income aspects of poverty – this is an important theme of this CPA.
In general, there is a high correlation between lack of income and lack of well-being. However this is not always the case – some people and households living below the poverty line may not feel insecure or threatened. Conversely, others, with incomes above the poverty, may experience lack of well-being resulting from factors such as family disruption, teenage pregnancy, crime, drug abuse or be at risk of falling into poverty from one or more of these factors.
3.2The Extent of Poverty in Montserrat in 2008/09
In late 2008/ early 2009, when the SLC was carried out, 25% of Montserratian households[8] and 36% of the population are poor. The level of indigence is however low at 2% of households and 3% of the population[9]. Around 20% of both population and households are classified as vulnerable (i.e. with expenditures up to 25% above the poverty line). Overall, 75% of households and 64% of the population are not poor; if those most vulnerable to poverty are excluded, 56% of households and 44% of the population are neither poor nor vulnerable to poverty. (Figure ES5).
Figure ES5. Poverty in Montserrat, 2009These data are generally consistent with the PPAs which indicated both low levels of severe poverty and high levels of poverty/ hardship amongst the population – the words ‘struggle’, ‘surviving’, ‘hardship’ appear over 500 times in the discussions while issues related to the high price of food and utilities were mentioned by virtually everyone. Conversely, there were very few mentions relating to ‘hunger’ which corroborates the low statistical level of severe poverty. The only groups seen as being relatively unaffected by this situation were senior civil servants, business people and politicians - around a third of those employed.