Global Security and Development
National Security and Defense Transformation
September-December2016
Dr Keagle
202-685-370030 (wp)
703-764-0726 (hp)
COURSE DESCRIPTION (3 CREDIT HOURS): Change brings with it challenges—at the individual, organizational, and systemic levels. It involves behaviors and cultures with often deep-seated traditions. This course will explore the scope and magnitude of the transformational forces at work in our national security and defense establishments. By its nature the course will be about peace and war—how the nation goes about the business of preparing, equipping, and training itself to deter and if necessary to fight traditional wars and the new kinds of challenges that might lead to armed conflict as well as shaping the post war environment for an enduring peace—but do NOT think about this as a linear process. It will also be about sociology, bureaucratic politics, the role of the media, economics, health care, power…. Most of all this semester it will be about the politics of the national security and the budget pressures on the national security/ defense budgets—and where to consider taking acceptable risks—geographically and functionally and force posture wise (for example, do we need a $1Trillion nuclear modernization program; or 2400+ F-35s; or 11 carrier battle groups?). THIS AGENDA NOW IS BEING SHAPED BY AND LARGE BY THE INITIATIVES COMING FROM THE SECDFEF’S OFFICE—COMMONLY KNOWN AS THE 3rd OFFSET. (The roots of this can be found in Secretary Hagel’s 214 Innovation Initiative.
Among the Carter/Work the priorities are:
- Artificial Intelligence;
- Robotics;
- Autonomy;
- Hypervelocity; and
- Directed energy weapons.
This is driving change in R&D and the public-private partnership between DOD and industry.
As of mid-August 2016 I believe we will emphasize the above S&T related subjects along with the traditional security issues: Iran, Russia and hybrid warfare in the greater Black Sea, ISIS, the challenges in the Asia-Pacific region due to the growing influence of the PRC, and the cyber/space challenges.
PREREQUISITES: The student should know the basic features of the national security and defense policy making processes as well as the contemporary challenges the U.S. faces in the international system. An undergraduate foundation in IR and American foreign policymaking will be helpful, although this will truly be a course multi-disciplinary at its heart.
COURSE OBJECTVES: Upon course completion, the student should have a reinforced understanding of:
- the array of issues transforming the business of national security and defense—and how they are changing the processes of national security and defense policymaking in the U.S. as well as the manner in which the actors in the U.S. government establishment understand and decide issues.
- how Washington works and how it responds to (or resists) change. In this sense, this course will likely be different from any other course you have ever taken.
- the way in which the current menu of issues facing the international community offers threats as well as opportunities not only for the system as a whole and us as inhabitants of this planet, but also for the nation state, which has been the dominant form of organization for the past 500 years.
You should also be able to apply such knowledge to specific issues as well as synthesize across disciples and analyze and evaluate options.
REQUIRED TEXTS: Read, read read! Watch, watch watch! Think, think, think! National Defense, Joint Force Quarterly, Time,Newsweek, The Economist,The Washington Post (generally). The discussion and examination of most issues will be supported with readings I will supply through hot links to internet available materials. Watch from the menu of public affairs broadcasts. I will provide either links or actual hard copies of a range of materials as the course unfolds, including several of the journals mentioned above.
METHODOLOGY:
This class is a seminar. No more that one-half of any meeting will be devoted to a formal lecture, and student involvement is encouraged during any lecture--and paramount to the success of the seminar. Significant burdens lie on each of us to be prepared fully prior to class. This means, of course, that assignments should be accomplished before class. Moreover,we all must devote time prior to class to thinking through the issues raised in the readings. You should allocate at least one-half of your preparation time to these thoughtful deliberations. Learn to read quickly and carefully—and make strategic decisions about what to read—and how to share your insights with others—in class and at the workplace. This is a discussion based learning environment—not lecture based.
I will assume the burden of making the seminars enjoyable learning experiences--a place and time we all look forward to. I will mix a variety of techniquesthroughout the course so that we are more able to keep our focus on learning. Learning can be fun, and making it so is my primary objective.
EVALUATION:
Grading is important to you and me and is a responsibility I take very seriously. I am flexible in my approach as to how you may earn your grade and will detail this more thoroughly in class. What follows is my general expectation for your level of work. Class attendance I expect.
One written issue paper (see below)25%
Or developed outline of major paper
Major (10-15 pages) written report
and oral presentation on selected50%
transformation topic
Class discussions25%
Final Exam (optional—can raise your evaluation one letter grade)
Each issue paper is to be three-five pages in length and will contain the following sections—background, issue, options, recommendations, and traps (sample format will be provided). An additional one-half page of talking points are also required. You will write this as if you were crafting a position for your “principal,” who sits at the table of the senior-level, NSC-chaired meeting. You will be recommending a course of action, or option, for the president—this President. It must be in the ballpark of what he is willing to consider. How you define the issue is the starting point of the paper and crucial to what follows (not everyone will frame the issue the same. This can be rolled into the major paper requirement as a working outline—more to follow in class. (This means one paper only with the October submission being a preliminary draft—I suspect many of you will prefer this option—I want to use the mid-semester point to give you some formal feedback/feed forward on your writing and proposed research.)
The major paper can (but does not have to) have a similar format but requires more analysis and evaluation.
Papers may be submitted electronically (Microsoft Word document) or paper. I normally return the electronic submissions with one working day with a preliminary assessment. Paper submissions will be returned to you the next scheduled class unless you and I arrange differently. Papers due at beginning of class onlessons 7 and lessons 14.
TOPICS FOR EXAMINATION:
General approach—we will look at some theory early. Ideally each student or small group of students will specialize in a particular topic or two—and I will assist in the research and student preparation to focus discussion on the various topics we explore.
I could lecture this all—but that is not my approach to a fun-and productive graduate learning experience. You have important roles, and I will be there to help focus your interests and make our sessions together true seminar experiences. Background readings for background and to somewhat even the playing field within the classroom; source documents, plus insights gleaned from contemporary comments, speeches, press conferences, etc.
Older documents from previous years follow: provided as background only—and a resource guide if you like. These issues evolve quickly—so staying current and understanding how we got to where we are is challenging
The National Security Policy Process
Big Data and the NSA
Challenges to the Constitution—Security vs. Liberty (the Ben Franklin quote now much more commonly referenced); this is a serious part of the course—with an examination of the role of social media and EO 12333 and Section 215 of the Patriot Act—and spying on Congress and our allies—see also the exchange between Christie and Paul atthe first republican debate in Cleveland 6 Aug 2015
The Changing Nature of Warfare: new Roles and Missions?
DOD Directive 3000.5 and Stability Operations
Post Ukraine—fighting a war against criminals, thugs, IO campaigns, and outside support
Whither Novorossiya and its impact on NATO Art V guarantees
Russia and its approach to hybrid warfare—emerging as the No. 1 priority
Reconstruction
Prospects for Reintegration/Reconciliation in Iraq given ISIS and whatever follows al Maliki, Afghanistanpost Karzai and elsewhere; a new kind of soldier; Three Cups of Tea;
See also the new US Army field manual 3-24 (Petraeus’s counterinsurgency strategy implemented in Iraq and being given much of the credit for the success of the surge)— and the debate with CT advocates (Biden) this may be decided on cost grounds.
We will also examine the new National Security and Defense Strategy. This really directs the Services to get serious about asymmetric warfare and will turn the R & D and AT & L processes on their heads.
New AF strategy focuses on necessary personnel changes plus continued movement toward integrating autonomous systems
See Panetta to BENS, Nov 2012 re the new nature of the deployed force—drones, Intel, SOF, HN forces, contractors
Is “Clear, Hold, Build’ outdated? Is there a role in Afghanistan beyond CT? Reconstruction? Economic Development? Governance and Corruption? Reconciliation? A New Silk Road? What is the bottom line mission in Afghanistan?
Do the American people have the patience to see through a decades’ long commitment.
Is there a casualties threshold? Did we cross it withthe Chinook shootdown?
How and in what sequence and with what prioritization and with what agencies do we accomplish security, governance and development missions?
The Changing Nature of Warfare: New Operations
A Decentralized Battlefield? Network centric operations and network enabled capabilities
Information Operations and the Battle of Ideas: Messages, Mediums, and Methods
Role of 24 hours news; embedded reporters; internet; Al Jazeera (and others); individual IPods
See for example Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Special report, “The War of Images and Ideas,” Daniel Kimmage and Kathleen Rodolfo, DC, RFE/RL, Inc., 2007
Arms control
Role of UAVs/RPVs/Unmanned systems—a lot here—perhaps the most transformational of any aspect of national security—and really tied to resources challenges—See also role of autonomy, trust, human interface in the kill chain—much of this intersects wit he law of armed conflict
Have we armed and trained the ISIS into the successful fighting force we have seen as of 8/14??
.
China—And Asia
What should the new relationship be in the era of the pivot? U.S. hegemony replaced by leadership and cooperation? See what Kissinger has to say
Recent PRC claims regarding sovereignty over the South China Sea and annual DOD submission to Congress re PRC military modernization, August 2010
PRC sends carrier to sea for test voyage—Summer 2011
Role of Ballistic Missile Defense in defending from DPRK threats—SM III and Aegis as game changers
Rise of Japan-Taiwan-Australia alliance? The first and second Island ring strategy? Recent US/ROK military exercises
How does Air Sea Battle work at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels? See Keagle in Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 70, 3rd Quarter 2013
What about A2/AD?
See these specifically from the last several months
East China Sea Scenario
“How uninhabited islands soured China-Japan ties,” BBC News, November 10, 2014.
Joyman Lee, “Senkaku/Diaoyu: Islands of Conflict,” History Today, Volume 61, Issue 5, May 2011,
Gavan McCormack, “Small Islands—Big Problem: Senkaku/Diaoyu and the Weight of History and Geography in China-Japan Relations,” The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus,
Justin McCurry and Tania Branigan, “Obama says US will defend Japan in island dispute with China,” The Guardian, April 24, 2014.
James J. Przystup, “Japan-China Relations: Going Nowhere Slowly,” Comparative Connections, September 2013.
Henry R. Nau, Richard J. Samuels, and Timothy J. Westmyer, “Japan as a Global Power: Contending Views from Japan,” August 2013.
IISS, “Beyond Abenomics: Japan’s Grand Strategy,” Strategic Comments,
South China Sea Scenario—Security-Economic Strategy Exercise
DOD’s Annual Report of the Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2015 May 8, 2015
pp.1-27 plus other sections as may be assigned by your instructor
“China’s Military Strategy,” The State Council Information Office, People’s Republic of China; Beijing, May 2015
“White Paper Outlines China’s Ambitions,” Wendell Minnick, May 27, 2015
China’s New Silk Road Initiative Will Boost the Global Economy,” Philipp Mibfelder, April 20, 2015
China’s Influence Grows with New Infrastructure Bank,” William Ide, June 29, 2015
Resetting Relations with Russia
Georgia and Ukraine—energy issues front and center? Or is it about sovereignty?
The New START, verification and nuclear force modernization
Post-Snowden—what comes after the pause?
Novorossiya—what does it mean?
ASW—could breakthroughs threaten our strategic triad?
Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “Hybrid warfare Tests Pentagon,” The Washington Post, July 4, 2014, p. A14
David Lynch, NATO maneuvers to Keep Cool war with Russia from Becoming Hot,” Bloomberg News, June 25, 2015
John Vandiver“Cart3er: NATO Must Gird for Cyber Battlefield,” Stars and Stripes, June 25, 2015
Adrian Croft, “Tensions with Russia Could Prompt NATO Strategy Rethink,” Reuters, July 6, 2015
Alla Rosca, “Power Distribution on the World Stage: The Impact of the Crimean Crisis,” Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Studies, Vol. 1, no. 2 2014
Transforming NATO
New defense and political roles/
Support for Afghanistan? And other out of area operations/
Whither Europe, the Euro-zone and the EU post Ukraine? Are sanctions enough?
What does effective deterrence mean in this context?
The Changing Nature of Warfare: a new Military Medicine Battlespace and the new Costs of Warfare: IEDS, PTSD andTraumatic Brain Injuries; C-17s as flying ICUs; modern day bleed-out challenges; cost of military health care (disabled, dependents, retirees); new proposals on military retirement to be replaced with a 401K-like system
See Dole –Shalala Report, “Serve, Support, and Simplify,” July 2007
See DD report of mental health--
Also, the pure economic costs of health care
Resistance to Change: New capabilities vs. legacy systems
UAVs—Predator WASPS, nano systems
Space—ASATs, BMD, and the Aegis we will explore Chinese thinking here—Google “Studies 9 and 32”; 2011 released Space strategy
Non lethal weapons: Directed Energy Weapons (active denial systems):
Cyber Power and Security )2011 released cyber strategy—cooperation with private sector—sniping and offensive cyber strategic elements
vs.
F-22s, JSFs, JDAMs and PGMs, Carrier Battle Groups, Abrams/M-1 tanks
F-35
Smart Defense—what does it mean?
Reorganizing DOD: AFRICOM—a truly interagency command? Consolidation of the COCOMs????? The largest AFRICOM base is in Djibouti? Why?
AFGHAN All-Hands—the next generation of interagency reform
The End of JFCOM? What was really cut?
DoD budget cuts—effect on outsourcing (contractors) and the political process—the costs of the wars—how much can we shrink the force?
Furloughs and Involuntary Reductions in Force (RIFs)????
The fiscal/budget realities--cost of the retirement system and health care—future of TRICARE for life
Money money, money—cutting major weapon systems and revamping personnel, health and retirement systems—but how about taking care of the vets—and PTSD, TBI and Gulf War Syndrome—money, money, money
ARMY Issues
AIR FORCE Issues
NAVY Issues
Energy Challenges
Supply/demand/transportation/production/refineries
This whole issue area is changing so quickly—with the hydro-fracking /shale/natural gas revolution driving the train. Iran oil and natural gas coming on line after sanctions relief ass another 2mbd to the supply side of the equation—and prices will drop
Climate change forum in December will provide additional focus
See work of Richard Andrus—key is JP-4 and the cost of keeping the USAF flying
See LMI Report FT602T1/April 2007, Transforming the Way DOD Looks at Energy,
Security Considerations for a Warming Arctic: Unfrozen Treasures and an Ice Breaker Gap?
Role of the Coast Guard, global warming and possible energy resources in the Arctic. See for example CRS Report RL 34391, “Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Modernization: Background, Issues, and Options for the Congress,” by Ronald O’Rourke, February 26, 2008.