General Election 2015 – a snapshot analysis from Scotland

An independent political commentator’s think piece for ECC

Aim

This paper explores in outline the possible outcome of the General Election on May 7 2015 and the implications for Scotland.

State of play

The 2014 Scottish Referendum has sparked a political phenomenon the likes of which the United Kingdom has never before experienced. We are in the grip of an unprecedented national political awakening. Some significant points:

  • The Referendum “winners” look like losers and the “losers” look like winners.
  • The Scottish Government, its leadership and the Scottish National Party are experiencing extraordinary and enduring popularity.
  • The traditional Unionist parties both north and south of the border are in crisis and are struggling to deal with internal turmoil and with the rise of UKIP.
  • The potential for the SNP to influence the UK political agenda is significant.
  • The SNP leadership has made it clear it will never stop pressing for more and more powers to the point of full independence (possibly with the exception of defence and foreign policy) – the so-called Home Rule option.

General Election outcomes

There are many “ifs” and “buts” but these are some realistic possibilities.

  • The SNP return a significant number of Westminster MPs - perhaps 20-30.
  • The number of Liberal Democrat MPs returned is greatly reduced.
  • The number of UKIP MPs significantly increases.
  • Neither the Tories nor Labour have the numbers to form a majority government.
  • Both seek coalition partners or “confidence and supply” arrangements to enable them to get the keys to 10 Downing Street and form a stable government.

The SNP

The SNP will not support a Tory government. They have openly confirmed they could support a Labour government. Alex Salmond is being touted as a possible Deputy Prime Minister, although that is highly unlikely.

The price of keeping Labour in power would not be another referendum but would be more powers and, crucially. The prospect of a further referendum might be raised in the run up the Scottish elections in May 2016.

This scenario could unfold like this:

  • The SNP props up a minority Labour government.
  • The SNP manifesto for the 2016 Holyrood elections contains a commitment to hold another referendum.
  • The SNP win the 2016 election with another landslide.
  • They would use that as a mandate for more powers.
  • Another referendum is held sometime between 2016 and the next Holyrood election in 2020.

Other General Election outcome scenarios

With two months to go until the election, the opinion polls are showing Labour and the Tories neck and neck on about 31% each. The Liberal Democrats have plummeted to single figures (around 9%). The Greens are polling around 8% but the most significant indicator is UKIP which is polling around 16%.

Due the vagaries of the first past the post system, it is difficult to accurately superimpose voting intention percentages on the number of seats parties might win.

However, as the polls stand there is a very real prospect of a minority Tory government propped up by UKIP and Ulster unionist MPs.Under that scenario the likelihood of an in/out referendum on Europe is very real.

This scenario would also be bad news for the SNP’s ambitions for more powers for Scotland.David Cameron has made it clear that should he lead the next UK Government, there will be no further constitutional change for five years.The SNP would be left with the unenviable choice of implementing Tory spending cuts – George Osborne has made £25 billion worth of cuts and says another £50billion is in the pipeline – or cranking up taxes north of the border under new, already agreed, income tax powers.That would make the job of the SNP winning a fourth term in 2020 extremely difficult.

In Summary

  • The May General Election is potentially the most important for the UK and Scotland in particular for generations.
  • More powers are already coming to Holyrood and more could follow to the point of de facto independence.
  • The push for independence will remain potent as long as the SNP are in power.
  • The Scottish Government is implementing an increasingly left wing agenda.
  • At Westminster the pressure to concede more powers, perhaps another chance for independence will be enormous.
  • The possibility of a referendum on Europe also presents a set of challenges which overshadow even the prospect of Home Rule.
  • These are extraordinary times in politics. There is every reason to believe that the next 18 months will define Scotland’s future.

Written for ECC by Steve Bargeton

February 2015

1