Criteria for Assessing Candidate Viability

Type of Election

  • Primary, General, Open Seat
  • Challenger vs. Incumbent
  • Statewide or smaller
  • Federal, State, County, Municipal
  • What are the finance laws?
  • Who can vote?

Type of Office

  • Federal: Presidential, Senate, Congressional
  • State: Governor, Council of State, Legislative
  • County: CountyCommissioners, School Board, Soil and Water Conservation
  • Municipal: Mayoral; City Council

Type of District

  • What is the general partisan performance from past election results?
  • How did presidential candidates perform? How did Congressional candidates perform? How did U.S. Senate candidates perform?
  • What was the result of the last similar election?
  • Have only candidates from one party represented this district?
  • What are the demographics of the district?
  • Who is expected to vote?
  • How many votes will it take to win?

The Candidate

Incumbent:

  • When were they first elected?
  • What was the result of their past election?
  • How much money did they spend?
  • How much money have they raised?
  • Have they represented the district well? Do their votes reflect the views of the district?
  • What is their voting record?
  • Are there any unusual circumstances which would make reelection difficult (i.e. scandals)
  • Is he or she popular or likeable?

Criteria for Assessing Candidate ViabilityPage 2

Challenger:

  • Have they run before or been elected before?
  • Was the district similar?
  • Have they raised money before?
  • How much?
  • Have they served in the community before?
  • Do they have a voting record?
  • Do their views and positions reflect the district?

Political Environment

What outside issues will impact the election and are out of the control of the campaign?

Examples:

  • Other campaigns
  • Ballot measures
  • The War in Iraq
  • Lobbying scandals

Polling and Survey Research:

Polling is the besting indication of where the campaign is at any given moment in time:

  • What is the source of the poll (candidate, newspaper, online, etc.)
  • When was the poll taken?

Money, Money, Money, Money, Money!

  • What are the finance laws?
  • How much money needs to be raised?
  • How much money has been raised to date?
  • Is there strong working finance council?
  • How many people have contributed?
  • Do they have strong prospect lists?
  • Is the candidate dedicated to call time? (Fundraising calls)

Criteria for Assessing Candidate ViabilityPage 3

Campaign Plan

  • Who is running the campaign?
  • Is there an experienced staff and consulting team?
  • Is there a written plan and a formula to win?
  • Do they have a strong message and media plan?
  • Do they have a strong field and voter contact plan?
  • Are there a lot of volunteers?
  • Is there a strong Internet presence (website)?
  • Have they done polling?
  • Is the party strong?
  • Is there a strong coordinated campaign with the party?

Endorsements

  • Other elected officials
  • Newspapers or other media
  • Unions and other professional organizations like NEA and NCAE
  • Business groups
  • Civic Groups
  • Constituency leaders
  • Religious leaders
  • Other community leaders

emocraticGAIN.org