IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION MEMORANDUM (ICM)

TF Name: REGIONAL CLIMATE, WATER AND AGRICULTURE:

IMPACTS ON AND ADAPTATION OF AGRO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS IN AFRICA

TF Number: TF051524

Report Date: June 28, 2006

Program:

Net Grant Amount: $700,000

Donor(s):

Approval Date: August 20, 2002

Closing Date: June 30, 2006

A. GRANT OBJECTIVES

Original Statement of Grant Objectives

Provide original statement of objectives from the approving grant or cleared IBTF.

The main goal of the project is to develop multipliable analytical methods and procedures for assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in Africa, to estimate how climate affects the current agricultural systems, and to project how climate change might affect this system in the future. In particular:

(a) Conduct national level economic analyses of impact and adaptation.

(b) Conduct cross-national analysis and extrapolate results to countries not included in the sample.

(c) Include water supply in the analysis.

(d) Enhance the capacity of country experts.

(e) Facilitate an intra-country exchange of findings and policy alternatives, among various levels of decision makers from each country.

(f) Develop inter-country exchanges between all the country teams participating in the project.

Changes to Grant Objectives

If original objectives have been changed, explain the nature of the revisions and the justification for them.

No change

Achievement of Grant Objectives

Discuss and rate the extent to which the activity achieved its relevant objectives.

(a)-(d) and (f) fully achieved. All promised analyses were completed, discussed among the participants and other experts and are now in the process of being disseminated via working papers and policy notes.

(e) was not fully achieved as it was difficult to engage for a long term commitment experst from the countries that are not directly linked to the project.

B. OUTPUT

Achievement of deliverables

1. Discuss and rate the actual output or deliverables completed, compared to the expected output, for each component of the grant.

1.1 Research Outputs

The following publications have been produced from research conducted under the project (find abstracts in Annex 1):

A. CEEPA/World Bank Working Papers

1.  Pradeep Kurukulasuriya and Robert Mendelsohn (2006). A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 1

2.  S Niggol Seo and R Mendelsohn (2006). Climate change impacts on animal husbandry in Africa: A Ricardian analysis. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 2

3.  David Maddison (2006). The perception of and adaptation to climate change in Africa. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 3

4.  Reneth Mano and Charles Nhemachena (2006). Assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe: A Ricardian approach. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 4

5.  Jane Kabubo-Mariara and Fredrick K Karanja (2006). The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 5

6.  K Strzepek and A McCluskey (2006). District level hydro-climatic time series and scenario analyses to assess the impacts of climate change on regional water resources and agriculture in Africa. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 6

7.  Alexander Lotsch (2006). Sensitivity of cropping patterns in Africa to transient climate change. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 7

8.  D Maddison, M Manley and P Kurukulasuriya (2006). The impact of climate change on African agriculture: A Ricardian approach. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 8

9.  Helmy M Eid, S El-Marsafawy and S Ouda (2006). Assessing the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Egypt: A Ricardian approach. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 9

10.  E L Molua and C M Lambi (2006). Economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Cameroon: Ricardian analysis. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 10

11.  P Kurukulasuriya and R Mendelsohn (2006). Endogenous irrigation: The impact of climate change on farmers in Africa. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 11

12.  Sungno Niggol Seo and Robert Mendelsohn (2006). Climate change adaptation in Africa: A microeconomic analysis of livestock choice. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 12

13.  Isidor M Sene, Mbaye Diop and A Dieng (2006). Impacts of climate change on the revenues and adaptation of farmers in Senegal. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 13

14.  James Benhin and Glwadys Gbetibouo (2006). Climate Change and South Africa Agriculture: Impacts and Adaptation Options. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 14

15.  Fredrik Hannerz and Alexander Lotsch (2006). Assessment of land use and cropland inventories for Africa. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 15

16.  Sungno Niggol Seo and R Mendelsohn (2006). The impact of climate change on livestock management in Africa: A structural Ricardian analysis. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 16

17.  M Ouedraogo, L Some and Y Dembele (2006). Economic impact assessment of climate change on agriculture in Burkina Faso: A Ricardian approach. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 17

18.  Temesgen Deressa (2006). Ricardian Analysis of the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Ethiopia. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 18

19.  Pradeep Kurukulasuriya and Robert Mendelsohn (2006). Crop selection: Adapting to climate change in Africa. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 19

20.  Suman Jain (2006). The economic impact of climate change on Zambian agriculture: A Ricardian analysis. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 20

21.  W Durand (2006). Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 21

22.  Helmy M Eid, S El-Marsafawy and S Ouda (2006). Assessing the impact of climate on crop water needs in Egypt: The CROPWAT analysis of three districts in Egypt. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 22

23.  Kidane Giorgis, Abebe Tadege and D Tibebe (2006). Estimating crop water use and simulating yield reduction for maize and sorghum in Adama and Miesso Districts using the CROPWAT model. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 23

24.  Deksyos Tarekegn and Abebe Tadege 2006). Assessing the impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources of Lake Tana Sub-Basin Using the WATBAL model. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 24

25.  Maï Moussa Katiella , Moustapha Amadou (2006). Use of CROPWAT model to predict SMD with climate change and analysis of CWR on main rainfed crops yield in Niger. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 25

26.  Ernest L. Molua and Cornelius M. Lambi (2006). Climate, hydrology and water resources in Cameroon. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 26

27.  Mbaye Diop (2006). Analysis of crop water use in Senegal with the CROPWAT model. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 27

28.  Fredrick K. Karanja (2006). CROPWAT model analysis of crop water use in Six Districts in Kenya. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 28

29.  L Some, Y Dembele, M Ouedraogo, F Kambire and S Sangare (2006). Analysis of crop water use and soil water balance in Burkina Faso using CROPWAT. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 29

30.  E Molua and C Lambi (2006). Assessing the impact of climate on crop water use and crop water productivity in Cameroon: The CROPWAT analysis of three districts in Cameroon. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 30

31.  Robina Wahaj, Florent Maraux and Giovanni Munoz (2006). Actual crop water use in project countries: A synthesis at the regional level. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 31

32.  K. Yerfi Fosu and J Adu (2006). Ricardian analysis of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Ghana. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 32

  1. A Dinar, et al. (2006). The policy nexus between agriculture and climate change in Africa: A synthesis of the investigation under the GEF Study “Regional Climate, Water and Agriculture, Impacts on and Adaptation of Agro-Ecological Systems in Africa”. CEEPA/World Bank Working Paper No. 33

B. Other Publications (Annex1)

1.  P Kurukulasuriya, R Mendelsohn, R Hassan, J Benhin, T Deressa, Mbaye Diop, Helmy Eid, K. Fosu, G Gbetibouo, Suman Jain, A Mahamadou, Renneth Mano, Jane Kabubo-Mariara, S El-Marsafawy, E Molua, S Ouda, M Ouedraogo, I Sène, D Maddison, S. Niggol Seo, and A Dinar (2006). Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change? World Bank Economic Review (forthcoming)

2.  P Kurukulasuriya (2005). User guide to the application of STATA Commands for statistical analyses. Unpublished project report, CEEPA, Pretoria

C. In Preparation

  1. Policy Notes extracted from all published working papers listed above (expected August 2006)
  2. A special issue of the African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (AfJARE) on Climate Change and African Agriculture (expected June 2007)
  3. Book on Climate Change and African Agriculture (expected December 2007)

D. Presentations at Conferences

1.  Kurukulasuriya, P (2005). Regional Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture. Presentation made to the Capacity Development and Adaptation Cluster, UNDP-GEF, April 2005, UNDP (New York)

2.  Kurukulasuriya, P (2005). Climate change impacts in Africa. Presentation made at the Doctoral Conference, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University (New Haven, CT), Feb 2005

3.  Benhin, J. (2003), Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation, Presentation at the Vulnerability and Adaptation Workshop, Department of Environment and Tourism (DEAT), and the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Pretoria, October.

4.  Benhin, J. (2003). Regional climate, water and agriculture: impacts on and adaptation of agro-ecological systems in Africa – Approaches and methods, Presentation at the Climate Change Capacity Buliding Workshop, South African Climate Action Network (SACAN), Johannesburg, August

5.  Benhin, J. (2004). Economic impacts assessment: Climate, water and agriculture in Africa. Presentation at the IWMI-World Bank Training Hub on “Irrigation, water, soils and natural resources management issues in Africa: Basin-based research and field experiences, Pretoria/Blydepoort, November/December.

6.  Hassan, R. and Benhin, J. (2006). Climate change and South African agriculture: A Ricardian analysis of impacts and adaptation options. Presentation at the “Agricultural sector workshop on climate change”, National Department of Agriculture of South Africa, Pretoria, February.

7.  Kabubo-Mariara, J. (2006). The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach. Third World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Kyoto, July.

8.  Benhin, J. and Hassan (2006) (Covenors). Climate change impacts on African agriculture and adaptation options: Methodologies and Preliminary results. Mini-Symposium for the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) conference, Australia, August.

1.2 Capacity Building Activities and Achievements
1.2.1. Project Research Planning and Training Workshops

The following three annual research planning workshops, which contained technical training sessions were held during the project period.

1.  Launching and training workshop on unified methodologies and data collection needs (Cape Town, December 2002). This workshop reviewed and introduced country research teams to the three principal methodological approaches: Ricardian, crop simulation modeling and hydrological modeling.

2.  Training workshop on quality control for country level and regional analyses and reporting (Cairo, November 2003). This workshop followed the completion of in-country field surveys and data collection, and sought to promote consistent quality of country analyses and reporting, and correct possible methodological problems. Participants were also trained on the use of STATA, a statistical and econometric package which was utilized for the Ricardian analyses.

3.  Understanding and adapting to climate change: What can the world learn from Africa’s experience (IAMZ, Zaragoza, Spain, December 2004). This workshop focussed on a (i) rigorous review and critical evaluation of the preliminary empirical results of the national studies and provided suggestions for improving the analyses and interpretation of study results and findings and their policy implications, (ii) review of and evaluation of results of the regional assessment studies on the potential economic and hydrological impacts and crop responses of climate change on agro-ecosystems in Africa and the various adaptation options.

In addition to the above, the following two dedicated technical training workshops were conducted:

1.  Training workshop on crop response simulation and river basin hydrology modeling (Accra, June 2003). In this workshop country teams were trained on the application of the CROPWAT and WATBAL models and finalized plans for implementing country level analyses using these two modeling tools.

2.  Technical training workshop on the implementation of the Ricardian analysis (KwaZulu Natal, South Africa, May 2004), which concentrated on further training on the country level Ricardian analyses using STATA.

1.2.2.. Degree Training and Research

In addition to these project workshops, several postgraduate degrees were also completed using project technical support, direct supervision and data. These include 2 PhDs at Yale University, 1 PhD at University of Colorado, Boulder, 2 MSc’s at the University of Pretoria, 1 MSc at University College, London (UCL). Currently, 4 PhDs are in progress in South Africa, Burkina Faso and Senegal.

Members of country teams are also training their students in their home universities and institutions on applications of the STATA software in several courses using the manual produced by the project on applications of STATA. Examples include, the University of Zambia for statistics courses and the University of Pretoria for courses in natural resource economics for students from southern and eastern African universities who participated in CEEPA’s regional master specialization course in environmental economics and policy.

1.2.3.. Other Research Support Infrastructure and Networking

1.2.3.1. Integrated digital database

The project activities have culminated into several databases which can be used for further country, sub-regional and regional analysis of climate impacts and adaptation. The databases include the following:

(a)  More than ten thousand surveys of farm households in the eleven study countries on their farming activities in the 2002 – 2004 farming seasons

(b)  District level climate attributes

(c)  Major and minor soils at the district level

(d)  Time series of hydro-climatic attributes such as runoff, stream flow, relative soil moisture storage, potential and actual evapotranspiration, river density index and area irrigated for all districts in Africa for 1961-2000

(e)  Climate scenarios for all districts in Africa for 2010 - 2100

1.2.3.2. Project website

A project website http://www.ceepa.co.za/climate_change/index.html was created to provide relevant information on the project to regional and country teams and the public at large (See Annex 7 – Manual for project website). The site contains information on project activities from the eleven countries, Yale University, FAO, IWMI and the University of Colorado, and database (which would be made available to the general public soon), and the project research reports.

2. Discuss and rate as to how well the grant output met the quality standards of the recipient and the beneficiary.