The Evolving Role of Social Media in NWS WFO Columbia, SC Operations
Hunter Coleman, NOAA/NWS Columbia, SC
The National Weather Service began experimenting with social media tools such as Facebook and Twitter around 2010 for the purposes of sharing critical information related to the mission and educating the public. WFO Columbia established a social media presence on Facebook and Twitter in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Over the past couple of years WFO Columbia has significantly expanded its reach on social media with over 4500 likes on Facebook and over 2000 followers on Twitter. Social media has proven to be a valuable resource for the office in terms of event verification and receiving general weather information while at the same time being able to reach a portion of our Forecast Area population we may have otherwise not been reaching. We believe it to be valuable service to our customers as well because we are able to quickly provide critical weather related information and general awareness and preparedness information. The role of social media and opportunities for the NWS to leverage it continues to grow and likely will become even more integrated into everyday operations.
______
Presenting the Social Media Dashboard – A Locally Developed Application
Neil Dixon, NOAA/NWS Greer, SC
Real-time highway patrol reports, web cams, streaming emergency services scanners, and other online resources frequently supply actionable information to National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists. The information collected from these electronic resources can aid in more informative and timely NWS statements, warnings, and local storm reports.However, the application of these resources varies across geopolitical boundaries and service areas. Over the past two years, social media has become one of the primary ways storm reports and other important information reaches the operational meteorologist. In addition, social media channels have proven to be an efficient and effective method of spreading information from the NWS to the public, emergency officials, and media. The Social Media Dashboard (SMD) is a tool developed by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg to post and monitor Twitter and Facebook messages. The SMD organizes on-line resources for situational awareness, and it serves as a warning verification resource. So far, the SMD has been utilized by nearly 40 NWS offices across five NWS regions.
Needs Assessment for the NWS WFO in Columbia SC
Whitney R. Smith, NOAA/NWS Columbia, SC
A needs assessment was performed to systematically determine how the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Columbia, SC (NWS CAE) can enhance its products and services to better meet the needs of its stakeholders. Interviews were conducted with local media and emergency management to gain a detailed understanding of each stakeholder’s specific needs, to determine which products and services are routinely utilized and to find gaps in communication, information and understanding. Responses to the interview questions were analyzed to reveal where the office is doing well and which areas may need improvement. Strategies were developed to incorporate results of the assessment within the forecast office.
______
The Reorganization of the AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise
Matthew J Parker, CCM, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC
The AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise (CWCE) has undergone a complete reorganization, which was completed in 2013 and endorsed by the Council in 2014 at the AMS Annual Meeting in Atlanta, GA. The reorganization became necessary to address explosive growth since inception in 2005 and to address AMS-wide initiatives, such as pursuing activities in the international realm. Managing the activities within the CWCE requires balance even though the organization is designed to be “flat” with open interactions across Boards and Committees. Interactions with the community of professionals and users also require attention and are addressed. The many details of the new organization will be presented.
Station Scientist in Action
Jim Gandy, Chief Meteorologist, WLTX-TV, Columbia, SC
A magnitude 4.1 earthquake occurred 12 km west-northwest of Edgefield, SC at 10:23 p.m. on Friday, February 14, 2014. Immediately a flood of phone calls resulted in a decision to suspend programming and begin wall-to-wall coverage of the earthquake. Coverage began at 10:36 p.m. and continued until 12:50 a.m. This thrust the chief meteorologist in the role of station scientist to collect and explain the information used to communicate with viewers.
Using the quick links found on the station scientist page of the AMS website, information was quickly gathered and disseminated on-air, online, and through social media. Examples of the coverage include the on-air interaction with the anchors, online postings, and the interactive social media tools. In addition to collecting and disseminating information, it was important to dispel rumors that were circulating after the event. The use of the NWSchat helped to facilitate the spread of information to other agencies and media.
The importance of disseminating the information quickly and in real-time could not be underestimated. The earthquake followed the worst winter storm in more than a decade leaving almost 350,000 customers without power. There were still about 200,000 customers without power at the time of the earthquake. Social media and text messages were used to reach these viewers.
The earthquake was a minor quake and did little damage. However, the shaking was felt across the state because of the shallow depth of the epicenter. A magnitude 3.2 aftershock occurred two days later, but was felt only in the immediate area.
______
Revision to Flood Hazard Evaluation at the Savannah River Site
R. L. Buckley and D. W. Werth, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC
Requirements for the Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing Department of Energy (DOE) facilities are outlined by the DOE. A Savannah River Site (SRS) report is being generated that examines the hazards posed by potential flooding, and represents an update to reports written in 1999 and 2000. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve is defined as the water elevation associated with each annual probability of precipitation (or inversely, the return period in years). New design hyetographs (rainfall distributions over time) for both 6-hr and 24-hr precipitation distributions were used in conjunction with hydrological modeling of various basins within the SRS. For numerous locations of interest, peak flow discharge and flood water elevation were determined. In all cases, the probability of flooding of these facilities for a 100,000 year precipitation event is negligible. This presentation will discuss the methodology used in the analysis, and some representative results.
The Detectability of Effluent Signatures of Unknown Sources
David Werth, Robert Buckley, and Robert Kurzeja, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC
The Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) currently runs the FLEXPART diffusion model, forced with ECMWF 1⁰ x 1⁰ meteorological data. This is used to calculate the ‘source receptor sensitivity’ (SRS) between the sensor locations and any potential release point. The determination of emission locations in complex terrain, however, requires finer detail to describe accurately the atmospheric conditions. It is therefore desired to use a high-resolution model over the region surrounding a suspected clandestine facility. The model can be used in a two-step process: 1) finding ideal locations to sample air from a suspected source, uncontaminated by known sources, and 2) ‘backtracking’ a detected signal to its point of origin.
It is desired that any signal detected at a sensor be ascribed to a known source, or else flagged as having been released from an unknown facility. The ability to detect any signal and backtrack it depends on its proximity to other sources. The detection of a North Korean radioactive signal, for example, is therefore complicated by the existence of nuclear facilities in South Korea and Japan. A metric of detectability is Rm,n, the fraction of an unknown plume (m) that is intermingled with known plumes (n), with higher values indicative of poor detectability.
To study this, we simulate mesoscale plume dispersion by running the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), coupled to the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) dispersion model. We ran the RAMS/HYSPLIT coupled model for three periods with emissions from 5 known locations, one in Japan and four in South Korea. In addition, a hypothetical sixth source is located in North Korea. With the coupled model simulations, we calculate values of Rm,n for each emission point, assuming it to be the ‘unknown’ facility, with the others serving as the ‘known’ sources. A backtracking algorithm is also applied to estimate the release location of the simulated detections, and its effectiveness for the different sources is compared to their Rm,nvalues.
______
An Aviation Climatology for the Charleston, SC County Warning Area
Blair S. Holloway, NOAA/NWS Charleston, SC
One of the primary responsibilities of a National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO) is to produce aviation forecasts for select airports. These forecasts are referred to as a Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) and focus on aviation specific parameters including ceiling height, visibility, and wind speed and direction. The Charleston, SC (CHS) WFO fulfills its aviation forecast responsibility by issuing TAF’s for the Charleston International Airport and the Savannah International Airport. For aviation users, the forecasting of Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) conditions is especially important. IFR conditions are defined as ceiling heights less than 1000 feet and visibilities of less than 3 statute miles and can have significant impacts on the aviation community. Under IFR conditions, private and commercial flights may have to carry extra fuel, plan for an alternate landing site, or even delay or cancel flights depending on minimum airfield requirements. As such, accurately forecasting the occurrence and timing of IFR conditions has tremendous economic impact on the aviation industry. To better understand the aviation forecast program at WFO CHS, a climatology has been constructed that focuses on the prevalence, seasonal variability, and forecast verification of IFR conditions. The goal and purpose of the climatology is to determine how WFO CHS TAF’s and resulting service to aviation customers can be improved.
A Carolina Convective Case using a GOES-R Proving Ground Product
Frank Alsheimer, NOAA/NWS Charleston, SC
In preparation for the launch of GOES-R in 2016, several National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cooperative institutes (CIs) have developed proxy products to aid user readiness. The National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Charleston, SC (CHS) ingests some of these proxy products on an experimental basis to help the developers test the products and give feedback on their strengths and weaknesses when used in an NWS operational setting.
One such proxy product is the Cloud Top Cooling (CTC) product, developed by scientists at the University of Wisconsin (UW) Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). This product looks at the cloud top cooling rate based on 15 minute satellite images from the current GOES series and creates a color-coded product highlighting areas of the greatest cooling.
The presentation will begin with a brief discussion of the science behind the CTC product. Then a convective case study from the summer of 2013 will be presented, showing the strengths and weaknesses of the proxy product, and how the product can be combined with mesoanlyses and WSR-88D data to increase the situational awareness of the NWS forecaster and potentially lead to increased warning times.
______
Evaluating the Hardness Property of Hail through In-Situ CompressiveStrength Measurements
Ian M. Giammanco and Tanya M. Brown, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC
Throughout historical literature anecdotal or visual observations have been used to
describe the hardness property of hailstones (e.g. hard, slushy, etc...). A unique test device was
designed and built in order to perform a compressive strength test on hailstones measured in the
field. The device uses a pistol-grip clamp to apply a compressive load to a hailstone and
integrates a fast response load-cell and associated data acquisition hardware to measure the
applied force through the point of fracture. The strain-rate applied to the stone is fast enough to
produce a brittle failure and the peak compressive force is appropriately scaled to produce an
estimate of the compressive stress. The device is small and simple enough for use in a field
setting. Compressive stress measurements, of over 900 hailstones, yielded values ranging from
9×10-3 mPa to 7.5 mPa at strain rates of 10-1 s-1. The measurement device when compared to an
Instron Universal Test Machine exhibited a low bias induced by measurement hardware
sampling limits. When a low-pass filter was applied to the Instron data to replicate the hardware
properties of the field device, good agreement was found when compressive strength tests were
performed on laboratory ice spheres.
Updates on Observational Capabilities at USC
April Hiscox and Greg Carbone, USC, Columbia, SC
In recent years, the University of South Carolina Department of Geography has been improving its instrumentation and observational capabilities in support of student teaching. New equipment includes and updated weather station, net radiometers, and a weather balloon. The sounding systems is launched periodically throughout the academic year. In support of research the department also has an eddy covariance system and a new aerosol lidar system. We will report on the instruments and progress of installation.
______
A Statistical Look at Normal Monthly Precipitation at Augusta, Georgia and Columbia, South Carolina
Michael W. Cammarata, NOAA/NWS Columbia, SC
Amber McGinnis, UNC, Charlotte, NC
Normal monthly precipitation and departure from normal monthly precipitation are commonly reported statistics for observing locations. Normal monthly precipitation is typically the mathematical average amount at a site over a thirty year period (currently 1981-2010). This study will compare the average with the median and terciles as descriptive measures of “normal” monthly precipitation to illustrate the differences in these statistics and provide a broader concept of what is “normal.” Data will be presented for Augusta, Georgia and Columbia, South Carolina.
______
Analysis of Extreme Negative Arctic Oscillation Values and their Relationship to Southeast U.S. Cold Air Outbreaks
IvettaAbramyan, South Carolina State Climate Office, Columbia, SC
Leonard Vaughan, NOAA/NWS Columbia, SC
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a large-scale climate pattern characterized by sea level pressure variability in the polar region. The AO consists of a positive and negative phase, both having impacts on global climate. Its variability is greatest during the cold season, and negative AO values are believed to be associated with below normal temperatures in the Eastern United States. The purpose of this study is to determine whether extreme negative AO values are associated with significant cold air outbreaks in the Southeastern United States. Daily AO index data has been recorded since 1950. From this data, 23,100 AO index values were sorted from negative to positive. Within the lowest 100 daily AO index values (lowest 0.43%), there are eleven distinct time periods of four or more consecutive days. For this study, the five time periods with the lowest AO were analyzed. Minimum temperatures and departures from normal were examined for Atlanta, GA, Columbia, SC and Raleigh, NC. Each of the five events turned out to be either a record minimum temperature event, a prolonged cold air outbreak lasting for up to a week, or in some cases both. It was noted that minimum temperatures tended to lag the AO by one to three days.
Celebrating Six Years of CoCoRaHS in South Carolina
Hope Mizzell, Ph.D., South Carolina State Climatology Office, Columbia, SC
South Carolina is celebrating six years since the first CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network) observation was reported. Since the program’s start in 2008, 692 observers have joined CoCoRaHS with 55% still reporting in 2014 (Figure 1). Over 400,000 daily reports have been entered on the SC CoCoRaHS website. CoCoRaHS observers also provide valuable information through their Drought Impact, Hail and Significant Weather Reports. These entries include 827 significant weather reports, 224 hail reports, and 199 drought reports. CoCoRaHS data supplement and enhance the existing national weather observing networks.
Figure 1.CoCoRaHS Recruitment and Retention
\
This presentation will highlight the value of CoCoRaHS observations. There are numerous extreme events that would go undocumented without CoCoRaHS observers. For example, in Aiken County on June 3, 2013, CoCoRaHS observations ranged from 0.16” to 6.82” with one station just across the border in Edgefield County reporting 7.75” in just over five hours. Without CoCoRaHS we would not have been able to accurately document the extreme range in precipitation values for this event.
Focus areas for improvement include observer retention and increasing the ratio of observers who join, but don’t regularly take observations. The SC State Climate Office issued 5-Year Certificates in 2013 recognizing observers that have been with the program since 2008. During 2014, the SCO hopes to target recruitment in 12 counties with less than 3 observers (Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Chester, Chesterfield, Dillon, Fairfield, Florence, Marlboro, McCormick, Sumter, and Union).
Evaluation of Dual Polarization and Conventional Doppler Radar Products across the WFO Columbia SC County Warning Area during the 1 July 2012 Severe Hail Event
Anthony W. Petrolito and Louvenia W. Morrison, NOAA/NWS Columbia, SC
Record temperatures (105oF to around 113oF) were reported on the days leading up to 1 July 2012 over central South Carolina. The intense heating continued on 1 July 2012 and the resulting buoyancy was extreme with Surface Based Lifted Index (SBLI) values around -14oC and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) of 3000-4000 J/kg. Weak convergence along a surface trough across central South Carolina and east-central Georgia during the afternoon and evening combined with the extreme instability led to multiple severe pulse thunderstorms. The extreme buoyancy and steep low to middle level lapse rates supported intense updrafts and severe hail formation. There were numerous reports from spotters and law enforcement of golf ball sized hail and larger. Dual Polarization (Dual-Pol) radar data and conventional Doppler radar data interrogation methods for detecting severe hail were evaluated for a few cases from the 1 July 2012 event. In addition, locally derived probability of severe hail equations were also incorporated into the analysis. The purpose of the study was to determine if the use of the Dual-Pol data improved severe hail detection for this event and to assess the utility of the local probability of severe hail equations in the warning operations. Analysis of the cases suggested an increase in confidence of severe hail detection with the incorporation of Dual-Pol products than with the conventional radar methods. The local probability of severe hail equations proved useful with probabilities exceeding warning thresholds several minutes prior to thunderstorms producing severe hail.