Space Power Generic DDI 2011
Space Power Generic
1
Last printed 9/4/09 7:00 PM
Space Power Generic DDI 2011
*****Aerospace Advantage***** 3
***AFF*** 3
Uniqueness – Aerospace Industry Weak 3
Uniqueness – Innovation Low 4
Uniqueness – China Gaining 5
Uniqueness – Europe Gaining 6
Link – Tech Spin-off 7
Link – Private Investment 9
Solvency Mechanism – Tax Credits 11
Aerospace Good – Hegemony 12
Aerospace Good – Competitiveness 14
Aerospace Good – Laundry List 15
Aerospace Good – Trade 16
Aerospace Good – Economy 17
Aerospace Good – Green Tech 18
***NEG*** 19
Uniqueness – Aerospace Industry Strong 19
Uniqueness – Innovation Now 20
Uniqueness – Europe Not Gaining 21
AT: Link – Privatization Solves 22
AT: Link – No Tech Spin-offs 23
No Impact – Space Not Key 25
*****STEM Advantage***** 26
***AFF*** 26
Uniqueness – STEM Weak Now 26
Uniqueness – Competitiveness Weak Now 31
Uniqueness – Hegemony Declining 33
Uniqueness – Hegemony Low 34
Link – Space Revitalizes STEM Education 35
STEM Good – Competitiveness 37
Innovation Good – Economy 39
Innovation Good – Hegemony 41
Competitiveness Good – Hegemony 42
STEM Good – Heg 43
STEM Good – Economy 44
AT: STEM CP 45
***NEG*** 46
Uniqueness – Competitiveness Strong Now 46
Uniqueness – Econ Strong Now 48
Uniqueness – Hegemony High / Sustainable 49
Heg Sustainable – AT: East Asia 54
STEM Strong Now 55
Link Turn 57
No Impact – Doesn’t Help Econ 58
No Impact – Heg Decline Inevitable 59
No Impact – Competitiveness 62
STEM Advantage CP 63
STEM CP Solves Space 64
*****Science Diplomacy Advantage***** 65
***AFF*** 65
Link – Space Revitalizes Science Diplomacy 65
Science Diplomacy Good – Conflict 69
Science Diplomacy Good - Warming 72
Science Diplomacy Good – Relations 73
Science Diplomacy Good – Saudi Relations 76
Science Diplomacy Good – North Korea 77
***NEG*** 79
Uniqueness – Sci Diplo High 79
No Link – Space Doesn’t Solve 80
Science Diplomacy Fails 82
*****Space Dominance / Air Power Advantage***** 85
***AFF*** 85
Uniqueness – Space Dominance Low 85
Uniqueness – Air Power Low Now 87
Uniqueness – China = Threat 89
AT: China Not Threat 92
Link – Commercial Space => Military 93
Link – Commercial Space = Space Power 97
Link – Space Control => Air Power 98
Link – Nanotech 100
AT: Funding Trade-off Link Turn 101
Space Power Good – Conflict 102
Space Power Good – Hegemony 105
AT: Space Dependence Bad – N/U 107
Air Power Good – Warfighting 108
Air Power Good – Heg 111
Air Power Good – Deterrence 112
Now Key – Deterrence 113
Air Power Good – Korea 114
AT: Kills Diplomacy 115
AT: Soft Power 116
AT: On the Ground Troops Key 117
AT: Ground Troops Good – N/U 118
AT: Overreliance DA – Non-Unique 119
***NEG*** 120
Uniqueness – Space Dominance Now 120
Uniqueness – AT: China = Air Power Challenger 121
Link Turn – Air Force Funding Trade-off 122
AT: Space Prices Go Down 124
No Link – Space Doesn’t Solve 125
Impact Turn – Space Dominance Bad 126
No Impact – Air Power Doesn’t Solve 127
***NEG – Air Power Bad*** 128
Uniq – No AF Overdependence Now 128
Uniq – No AF Space Dependence Now 129
Uniq – Ground Troop Focus Now 130
Link – Space Power = Air Power Overreliance 131
Link – Space Power => Causality Aversion 132
Link – Strong Air Power = Overdependence 133
Air Power Bad – Conflict Aversion 1NC 134
Conflict Aversion – Link Ext 135
Causality Aversion – Turns Tech Development 136
Causality Aversion – Kills Heg 137
Air Power Bad – Interventionism 138
Air Power Bad – Prevents Diplomacy 139
Air Power Bad – Relations 140
Air Power Bad – Political Backlash 141
Air Power Bad – Collateral Damage 142
AT: Precision Strikes 143
Air Power Bad – Terrorism 144
Air Power Bad – Deterrence 145
Air Power Bad – Ground Troops Trade-off 146
Ground Troops Key 148
Overreliance Bad – Ineffective 150
Air Power Fails – Insurgency Wars 152
AT: Air Power Solves Conflict 153
AT: ME Proves Air Power Works 154
AT: Air Power Solves Lybia 155
*****Soft Power Advantage***** 156
***AFF – Int’l Cooperation*** 156
UQ – Int’l Backlash Now 156
UQ – Soft Power Low – Obama 158
UQ – Soft Power Low – Terrorism 160
UQ – Soft Power Low – China 161
UQ – Soft Power Low 163
Link – Exploration Solves Soft Power 164
Link – SPS = Int’l Coop 165
IL – Transparency 166
IL – Legitimacy Key to Soft Power 167
Soft Power Good – Hegemony 168
Soft Power Good – Alliances 171
Soft Power Good – Terrorism 172
***AFF – Morale*** 173
Uniqueness – Morale Low 173
Uniqueness – Nationalism Low 174
Link – Morale Key to Heg* 175
Link – Space Boosts Nationalism 178
IL – Morale Solves Isolationism 179
Impact – Nationalism = Troop Recruitment 180
Impact – Troop Recruitment Key to Readiness 181
***NEG*** 182
UQ – Soft Power High 182
Soft Power High – AT: China 183
No Impact – Soft Power Irrelevant 184
UQ – Space Leadership High* 185
UQ – Morale High 186
No Link – Space Irrelevant to Nationalism 187
No Impact – Isolationism Not So Bad 188
Impact Turn – Nationalism Bad – Foreign Policy 189
*****Russia DA***** 193
***NEG*** 193
Uniqueness – Russian Aerospace Strong Now 193
Uniqueness – No Brain Drain 194
Uniqueness – Russian Economy 195
Link – Contracts Competition 196
Link – Worker Competition 197
IL – Capital Key 199
IL – Capital Key 200
IL – Avoiding Brain Drain Key 201
Impact – Aerospace Key to Russian Economy 202
Russian Econ Imapct – Nuclear War 203
Impact Calc – Probability 206
Russian Econ Impact – Prolif 207
Russian Econ Imapct – TB 208
Russian Econ Impact – US Econ 209
Russian Econ Impact – Laundry List 210
***AFF*** 211
Uniqueness – Brain Drain Now 211
Uniqueness – No Workers Now 212
No Link – No Personel Trade-off 213
No Link – No Capital / Tech Competition 214
No IL – Oil Key 215
1
Last printed 9/4/09 7:00 PM
Space Power Generic DDI 2011
*****Aerospace Advantage*****
***AFF***
Uniqueness – Aerospace Industry Weak
Aerospace industry is weak: lack of technical talent, few students enter SNT disciplines, shrinking workforce
US Department of Labor’5, report from the United States Department of Labor, May 2005.
“America’s Aerospace Industry: Identifying and Addressing Workforce Challenges” Report of Findings and Recommendations For The President’s High Growth Job Training Initiative in the Aerospace Industry
http://www.doleta.gov/brg/indprof/aerospace_report.pdf
Stakeholders also discussed the following key issues: Promotion of science, technology, engineering and mathematics education – There are not enough young people entering these key disciplines. The need for innovation – There are fewer engineers to promote innovation and few opportunities to participate in innovative projects. The Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) cited that there are only approximately 20,000 engineers currently working in the industry.5 Students also do not possess the key systems engineering skills that combine decision-making skills in design, operation, or construction with interdisciplinary understanding of the systems or environment that the products will operate in. The shrinking workforce – Since 1987, nearly 600,000 jobs in mathematical, scientific and technical fields in the aerospace industry have been lost. The need for policy changes impacting industry stability, phased retirement, security clearances and off-shoring – Stakeholders identified key issues that have affected the aerospace industry’s economic competitiveness.
Aerospace industry weak—loss of European investment due to eroding economy
Anselmo and Wall’10, Joseph C. Anselmo, Deputy Managing Editor at Aviation Week, former defense reporter at Congressional Quarterly, Robert Wall, June 11, 2010.
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/asd/2010/06/11/01.xml
ANNAPOLIS, Md. and BERLIN — A decline of more than 20% in the value of the euro against the U.S. dollar is bolstering the competitiveness of Airbus and other European aerospace manufacturers while eroding a pricing advantage that a weak dollar has provided to Boeing and U.S. suppliers for several years. Concerns about the financial health of Greece and other members of the 16-country euro zone pushed the currency below $1.20 this week, down from $1.50 in late 2009 and its lowest level in more than four years. The stronger U.S. currency benefits Airbus, which sells its jets in dollars but incurs about half its expenses in euros. European suppliers such as MTU Aero Engines, Dassault and Safran also benefit. The shift could have implications across the aerospace industry. The weaker euro makes U.S. weapons platforms — such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter — less affordable for potential European buyers. And oil, which is sold in U.S. dollars, has become pricier for European airlines, though hedges should limit the impact. The biggest effect, however, could be a shift in the competitive balance between Airbus and Boeing. Charles Armitage, a London-based consultant at Charles River Associates, calculates that the recent decline of the euro would allow Airbus to lower the price of a new jet by 10% and still command the same profit it did when the euro was at $1.50. That gives the European aircraft giant the flexibility to be more aggressive when it competes with Boeing for airline orders, he said in an interview June 8 at AVIATION WEEK’s annual Executive Summit in Annapolis, Md.
Uniqueness – Innovation Low
No innovation—shift from space age to information revolution
Kemp et al’9, Chris Kemp, Chief Information Officer, NASA Ames Research Center, Tim Hughes, Vice President, SpaceX, Doug Comstock, Director, Innovative Partnerships Program, NASA, Scott Pace, Professor of Practice in International Affairs & Director, Space Policy Institute, George Washington University, Uyen Dinh, Senior Director, Government Affairs, GeoEye, June 16, 2009. “Innovation in aerospace”.
During much of the 20th century, the aerospace industry drove innovation in the U.S. economy. Thus, it earned the moniker, "the space age." By the end of the century, however, developments in information technology, biological sciences, and biotechnology seemed to eclipse aerospace as a major driver of innovation in the United States. Indeed, the "information revolution" replaced the "space age" as an off-hand reference to the century. At the same time, mainstream aerospace activity, particularly as it related to government programs intended to serve the national interest, suffered from increased bureaucratization and risk aversion. National centers of technical creativity and innovation shifted from aerospace firms, which were consolidating and downsizing with the end of the Cold War, to places such as Silicon Valley and the Northern Virginia technology corridor.
Uniqueness – China Gaining
China’s space industry develops while US falls behind
Associated Press 7/11, Fox News, Sci-Tech, Aerospace. “China Aiming High in Space as U.S. Shuttle Program Winds Down”
This year, a rocket will carry a train car-sized module into orbit, the first building block for a Chinese space station. Around 2013, China plans to launch a lunar probe that will set a rover loose on the moon. It wants to put a man on the moon, sometime after 2020. While the United States is still working out its next move as the space shuttle program winds down, China is forging ahead. Some experts worry the U.S. could slip behind China in human spaceflight -- the realm of space science with the most prestige. "Space leadership is highly symbolic of national capabilities and international influence, and a decline in space leadership will be seen as symbolic of a relative decline in U.S. power and influence," said Scott Pace, an associate NASA administrator in the George W. Bush administration. He was a supporter of Bush's plan -- shelved by President Obama -- to return Americans to the moon. China is still far behind the U.S. in space technology and experience, but what it doesn't lack is a plan or financial resources. While U.S. programs can fall victim to budgetary worries or a change of government, rapidly growing China appears to have no such constraints. "One of the biggest advantages of their system is that they have five-year plans so they can develop well ahead," said Peter Bond, consultant editor for Jane's Space Systems and Industry. "They are taking a step-by-step approach, taking their time and gradually improving their capabilities. They are putting all the pieces together for a very capable, advanced space industry."
Uniqueness – Europe Gaining
European Aerospace industry becoming competitive—challenges US
Hayes 2k, Phillip Butterworth-Hayes, Consultant and writer on global aviation affairs, editorial director of PMI-Media Ltd, a company which specializes in producing aerospace and defence reports and studies, Graduate of the University of Hull, former editor of Interavia Aerospace Review and Airports International and an aviation consultant to BBC Television, November 2000.
www.aiaa.org/aerospace/Article.cfm?issuetocid=51&ArchiveIssueID=10
"In a historical perspective, the unit labor cost position of euro area producers is currently very favorable relative to U.S. producers," continued the report, "better than at any time since 1985. Unit labor costs in the United States relative to the 11 euro states are some 34% above their 1987-99 average. The cost competitiveness for 11 euro producers against their U.S. competitors has improved by around 18% since the launch of the euro." After five years of strenuous cost-cutting by European aerospace companies, the continuing weakness of the euro against the dollar has been seen by many in Europe as the icing on the cake. "The rapid recent decline in the value of the euro and the pound against the dollar creates an opportunity for the European aerospace industry to improve its competitiveness in the marketplace," according to John Crampton, vice president and aerospace specialist at management consultants Cap Gemini Ernst & Young. "If this currency exchange advantage can be combined with a fast, cost-effective integration of the partners into EADS [European Aerospace, Defense and Space], the results could cause real problems for its U.S. competitors."
Link – Tech Spin-off
Investing in aerospace leads to hundreds of tech spinoffs
Thompson 7/5, Kevin D. Thompson, July 5, 2011. “Technology from Space Shuttle Program is a Big Hit on Earth”
http://www.kansascity.com/2011/07/05/2995447/techsense-technology-from-space.html