1
SERIES: EDUCATION
Y.Kuzmina[1], D.Popov[2], Y.Tyumeneva[3]
PATHWAYS TO LIFE.
THE MONITORING OF SCHOOL AND UNIVERSITY GRADUATES' EDUCATIONAL AND WORK TRAJECTORIES [4]
The purpose of this paper is to present a new longitudinal research project, which was started by the University – Higher School of Economics. The project is targeted to design and implement in Russia a tracing system for monitoring professional and educational trajectories of secondary and higher school graduates. The research will allow to:
· Identify and investigate typical life trajectories of graduates in several regions;
· Estimate to what extent different economic, social and psychological factors determine professional and educational trajectories;
· Specify how deep educational and labor trajectories are interrelated and why job position does not match education in many cases;
· Find barriers and resources which are impede/help to develop successful trajectories.
At the first stage of the research two groups are being investigated - secondary school students of 9th grade and higher school students of graduation courses. This ‘entrance point’, a moment when we gather the data for the first time, was chosen intentionally - life trajectories of young people are dispersing at these points, secondary school graduates may stay at their schools or enter a vocational school, higher school graduates can continue their education in magistracy or post-graduate courses or/and find a job. The specific of this study is in its longitudinal structure. The surveys will be conducted every three years. Every time the same respondents will be questioned. The quantitative survey data will be supplemented with the materials of focused interviews. It is supposed that research will be finished in 15 years, 5 surveys will be conducted by that time. In the long run such type of panel research allows creating a “portrait of generation”.
Keywords: longitudinal study of youth, educational trajectories, work trajectories, school to work transition.
Introduction
A new longitudinal project called "The monitoring of school and university graduates' educational and work trajectories" has been launched in Russia by the National Research University Higher School of Economics. The project is designed as a cohort panel research with its main tasks being search, analysis, and understanding of key factors influencing youth during transitional moments of their biographies—in the process of choosing a place to study, a job, new life strategies.
One's life always comprises interchanging each other periods of relative stability and calmness on the one hand and dynamic changes and transitions on the other. In contemporary Russian society, the period of active search and decision making starts in high school or right after finishing it, when a young person begins to reflect on what is waiting ahead and what s/he wants in life. By carefully examining events and facts of this period a researcher obtains a crucial opportunity to learn much about young people's life, a chance to establish the probability of various events taking place.
It is very often that the period of changes proves relatively short. The issue of how to track carefully and thoroughly what occurs in one's life during such periods is frequently solved via using the model of longitudinal study. In international research practice such an approach is conventionally designated as life strategies research (Elder, 1985; Ежов, 2005). Despite all its shortcomings—complexity, high cost, and duration—this approach allows to reconstruct in great detail and analyze typical trajectories, life pathways. Ultimately, this sort of research may well become a some kind of "generation portrait." It is inevitable that some traits of this portrait will be more minute and finely drawn while others will only remain in outline.
It is planned that several generations of youth in a number of regions of Russia—Tatarstan, Yaroslavl Oblast, Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Primorsky Krai etc—are going to become the object or our research. The study is conducted in three-year cycles. This scheme enables to monitor changes in selected groups during many years. Due to a number of causes, it was decided to complement mass surveys with studies carried out in another, anthropological, logic. Examination of life trajectories implies complex analysis of expectations, reasons for satisfaction or dissatisfaction with a particular educational program, job. Adding a qualitative block significantly improves the potential for data interpretation.
As the research unfolds, we plan to add new regions to the project. This philosophy gives wide opportunities of cross-regional comparative analysis and at the end of the day will let us get a sample that would be representative both at the level of each region and at the national level on the whole. Given this, every region gets a chance of researching those issues and questions, included into the questionnaire as additional blocks, that are pertinent to it.
The first measurement took place in 2009, when 9th graders from high schools and university seniors in The Republic of Tatarstan and Yaroslavl Oblast were questioned. The foundation for a longitudinal study was laid and panels formed that comprised 8000 subjects overall. Recurring access to these respondents is going to occur in 2012, when schoolchildren will have chosen a new educational institution (university, technical secondary school) or enter labor market and students will have turned into young specialists. Thus, we trace fates of those who work, continue studying, change specialty etc. The main goal of the project's first phase is creating means of identification and analysis of school leavers' trajectories within general education and higher education systems.
In the course of the research interrelations between life trajectories and context factors are revealed. The latter include all socio-economic, demographic, political, and other conditions which with a certain probability can influence choosing and shaping of a life pathway typical for a given territorial or institutional system of trajectories.
The overarching goal of the research project is to detect and analyze trajectories in the spaces of education, labor, and family. Apart from this, it is also important to find out what factors exert influence on choosing a particular trajectory, to analyze interaction between trajectories in the three mentioned spaces, track sequence and speed of trajectory development, changes in practices, motivations, values. Among the key tasks and capabilities of the project the following is worth being singled out:
1. Investigation of a relation between a number of economic, social, and psychological characteristics of research participants, their previous educational and work experience on the one hand and choices of professionalization trajectories on the other.
2. Identification of participants' predictive traits (the assumption about their predictive value is based either on preceding findings or on the data gathered in this project).
3. Clusterization of research participants in accordance with presumably predictive traits.
4. Tracing each cluster's trajectory; extraction of "typical" trajectories.
The present paper provides a social characteristic of cohorts under scrutiny, offers the results of a painstaking analysis on senior high school students' and university seniors' life plans. Considering the fact that only the first measurement has been performed, it is prematurely to discuss a full-fledged modeling of typical trajectories. However, the university leavers' group is able to become a certain reference point helping to analyze what currently is happening to senior high school students.
Longitudinal studies on youth in other countries
The method of monitoring those who leave educational institutions' trajectories is gaining more and more popularity in worldwide research practice. This is caused by the fact that it is most adequate to specific modern processes going on in education sphere, on labor market, and in the area of their intersection/interaction.
There currently exist several renowned monitoring projects with similar design that are being implemented in various countries. Among these we should mention the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY-79 and NLSY-97) and the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS 88) in the United States, the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS) in Canada, the Youth Cohort Study (YCS) and the Longitudinal Study of Young People (LSYPE) in England, the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) in Australia[5].
One of the first full-scale research in the area of studying young people was the American NLSY-79 project. At the first stage, young females, most of whom would later become mothers, were surveyed. According to the creators' plan, this project was to foster complex understanding of how family and immediate social environment affect a child's development. At the present moment, the research is under way, children being observed since their very birth have already reached or will soon reach their 30th birthday.
In 1997, another national monitoring, the NLSY-97, that was supposed to amplify and develop the ideas of the first project, was launched in the United States. This time families with children at the age of 10-12 years were selected at the initial point of the research. These children already attended school and were able from the very beginning to answer interviewers' questions by themselves. Cognitive tests were added to main survey instruments. The key goal of this project is to gather extended information on respondents' behavior on labor market and their educational experience. Another part of the research was the collection of data related to these young people's families and social environment which allows to evaluate the youth entering labor market more completely. This study's data enable us to answer the question of how young people's existing experience influences their career development, participation in government programs, and creation of family.
In England, longitudinal studies of youth have been carried out since the mid-'80s (the Youth Cohort Study, YCS). A whole number of longitudinal projects which trace behavior and decision making of young people at the age of 16 when they face the necessity of choosing their further life pathway has been launched in this country. The study is aimed at identifying and explaining those factors which influence young people's trajectories—school results and academic achievements, opportunities of getting additional education, educational experience at school, and so on. The research has been conducted since 1985 and embraces 13 generations of young people. In 2004, this British project has been supplemented with another one—the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE). This monitoring project is focused on the generation of schoolchildren who were born between 1989 and 1990. Having similar design (among the key topics studied are household and demographic characteristics, language used at home, attitudes towards school and education, school subjects preferred, educational needs, expectations, and intentions of parents, events taking place within family etc), this research allows to acquire data concerning younger generations in the United Kingdom.
Starting with the mid-'90s, a national monitoring of students (the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth, LSAY), created as a tool of analytical support of Australian government's educational policy, has been run in Australia. 9th graders are surveyed at the first stage of the research. In 1995, 1998, and 2003 studies of other schoolchildren generations started; incidentally, the 2003 sample included all the respondents who have been tested within The OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).
Tools and sample of the Russian monitoring
The questionnaires for the Russian monitoring research were developed with taking the aforementioned studies' experience into consideration, which, if it is necessary, allows to conduct comparative analysis. A questionnaire is the main tool in investigating educational and professional trajectories in terms of helping gather and put in order research participants' characteristics which are supposedly significant for explaining and predicting changes taking place in a respondent's life in the areas of his/her education and professional career. The range of information collected can be divided into the following question blocks:
· Economic, social, and cultural status of respondents' families;
· Respondents' education-, work-, and leisure-related experience;
· Respondents' attitudes and plans concerning their own education and career;
· Respondents' motivational and value characteristics;
· Some personal traits and self-evaluation of health.
Each block mentioned above is connected with hypotheses, which are made prior to the study, on possible determinants of changes in educational and career trajectories.
Questionnaires for schoolchildren and students are partially different in content and question wordings. These distinctions are due to the fact that respondents of various age have disparate educational and work experience, and so their topical problems also vary. In addition to this, questionnaires designated for different age groups contained different numbers of questions aimed at the same area under study, so every respondents' "sphere of life" had its own weight. However, the questionnaires also included so-called "anchor" questions, i.e., questions which, without being changed, were presented to all the respondents[6].
Questions employed were open and closed with either answer choice or with 4-point/5-point Likert scale.
As the research is being developed, questionnaire data will be amplified with results on cognitive tests as well as with information obtained at educational institutions, at work, and in respondents' families.
During the first phase of the research, questionnaires were given to 9th grade high school students and university seniors. The survey was conducted in two regions—Yaroslavl Oblast and The Republic of Tatarstan. The sample design provides representativeness of general populations—9th grade high school students and university seniors.
Table 1. Rates of educational systems' activity in The Republic of Tatarstan and Yaroslavl Oblast (as of 2009).
Yaroslavl Oblast / The Republic of TatarstanState and municipal comprehensive secondary schools (without night comprehensive schools)
number of schools, units / 463 / 2315
number of schoolchildren, people / 105871 / 391800
Non-state comprehensive secondary schools
number of schools, units / 6 / 8
number of schoolchildren, people / 762 / 900
State educational institutions of higher professional education (including branches)
number of institutions, units / 20 / 49
number of students, people / 41298 / 166600
admission, people / 9100 / 35300
graduation, people / 7503 / 30400
Non-state educational institutions of higher professional education (including branches)
number of institutions, units / 14 / 37
number of students, people / 11637 / 57100
admission, people / 2247 / 10600
graduation, people / 2075 / 11100
Both Yaroslavl Oblast and The Republic of Tatarstan are located in the central part of Russian Federation. Nevertheless, one cannot overlook crucial discrepancies between these two regions—both from the standpoint of general economic development and in the area of educational systems development. In this article, we do not intend to run a cross-regional comparison deeming it impossible to give an elaborated characteristic of these regions; let us only highlight some significant traits.