2004 International Symposium of KAMES
Water Resources in the Middle East: Conflict and Management
중동의수자원: 분쟁과관리
Seong Min Hong (HUFS)
1. Introduction
2. Water Resources in the Middle East
3. Water Conflict and Potential 'Water Wars'
4. Water Management under International Law
5. Concluding Remark
2004 International Symposium of KAMES,
PUFS, Pusan Korea
15-17 October 2004
1. Introduction
The great civilizations arose on the banks ofgreat rivers. These civilizations built large irrigationsystems and made the land productive. The civilizations also collapsed relying on the water supplies failed orwere improperly managed. The water resources in the 21st century consider as the most importantincreasing worldwide concern about humanhealth, the environment, and the path towards sustainable development. Of all the natural resources needed foreconomic development, water is one of the most essential, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.
At any rate, water is the most precious resource on the planet as humanity enters the21st century.Water is an essential element of daily life.Water is also required for producing many industrial products, for generating power, and for moving people and goods - all of which are important for the functioning of a modern, developed society. In addition, water is essential for ensuring the integrity and sustainability of the Earth’s ecosystems.
In the Middle East, water resources shared by Israel, Jordan, Palestine and Syria are not sufficient to meet growing demands for freshwater needs. Annual human use of the region's water resources currently surpasses the safe or sustainable annual freshwater yield. Future deficits are predicted to be quite severe.
The scarcity of freshwater in this region compounded by the historical, political and religious tensions, makes the Middle East one of the most intractable water disputes to be found anywhere on the planet. Adding to its scarcity, much of Middle Eastern water stems from three major waterways: the Tigris-Euphrates, Nile and Jordan River systems. Mutual reliance on these resources has made water a catalyst for conflict, spurring confrontations such as the 1967 War and the Iran-Iraq War.
Regarding water resources, this paper aims to examine the conflict and potential 'Water Wars' in the Middle East. It also reviews the management of water resources in the region under International Law. This paper, thus, consists of 1) Introduction, 2) Water Resources in the Middle East, 3) Water Conflict and Potential 'Water Wars', 4) Water Management under International Law, and5) Concluding Remark.
2. Water Resources in the Middle East
1. The Crisis of World’s Water
Global freshwater consumption rose six fold between 1900 and 1995 - more than twice the rate of population growth. About one third of the world’s population already lives in countries considered to be ‘water stressed’ - that is, where consumption exceeds 10% of total supply. If present trends continue, two out of every three people on Earth will live in that condition by 2025.
According to Vital Water Graphics[1] January 2003, agriculture and domestic use each wasted 800 cubic km of water, and industry 400 cubic km in 2000. By 2025, the report estimates, those figures will have risen to 1000, 1100 and 500 cubic km respectively. By then, an estimated 300 cubic km of water will be lost as well through evaporation from reservoirs, up 50% from 2000. AS you see in <Table 2–1>, the freshwater consists of very small portion among total world water.
<Table 2–1> The World’s Water
kind / % / form / %saltwater / 97.5
freshwater / 2.5 / locked in glaciers / 68.9
groundwater / 30.8
lakes and rivers / 0.3
Source: UNEP, 2003
In recent years the availability of and access to freshwater have been highlighted as among the most critical natural resource issues facing the world. The increase in water withdrawals implies that water stress will increase significantly in 60% of the world, including large parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. The UN environmental report GEO 2000 states that global water shortage represents a full-scale emergency, where‘the world water cycle seems unlikely to be able to adapt to the demands that will be made of it in the coming decades’(UNEP,1999). Similarly, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) emphasizes that ‘freshwater is essential to human health, agriculture, industry and natural ecosystems, but is now running scarce in many regions of the world’(WWF,1998).
The water crisis that exists is set to worsen despite continuing debate over the very existence of such a crisis. For many years over the past decades, 6,000 people and mainly children under five have died every day. Descriptions more severe than ‘a crisis’ have been associated with events in which 3,000 people have lost their lives in a single day. What phrase can be used for the recurrence of higher loss of life every day of every year over decades? That the world is in a water crisis is undeniable, and the time to take action is now[2].
Chapter 18 of Agenda 21 (UN, 1992), adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, defined the overall goal of water policy developments. The Rio Declaration stressed the importance of human being’s role as the first principle: Human beings are at the center of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature.Obviously water is inevitable factor to continue the sustainable development. The World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) elaborated the five theme areas in Johannesburg, August/September 2002. These include water and sanitation, energy, health, agriculture and biodiversity. Furthermore water is relevant to all three strands of development - social, economic and environmental. Agricultural sector is still important for water use in the world.
Water resources can only be understood within the context of the dynamics of the water cycle. These resources are renewable (except for some groundwater), but only within clear limits, as in most cases water flows through catchments that are more or less self-contained. Water resources are also variable, over both space and time, with huge differences in availability in different parts of the world and wide variations in seasonal and annual precipitation in many places. This variability of water availability is one of the most essential characteristics of water resource management. Most efforts are intended to overcome the variability and to reduce the unpredictability of water resource flows.Both the availability and use of water are changing. The reasons for concern over the world’s water resources can be summarized within three key areas: water scarcity, water quality and water-related disasters. Each is discussed briefly here and expanded on throughout this report[3].
2. Water Shortage in the Middle East
According to the World Bank, the Middle East and North Africa region contain less than one percent of global water resources, while having five percent of total world population. The number of water scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa has risen from three in 1955 to 11 by 1990, and another seven more, including Syria and Egypt are expected to join the list by 2025. With population rates among the highest in the world, Middle Eastern countries are consuming water at a much higher rate than can be replenished naturally. <Table 2-2> shows water resources in the Middle East.
Table 2-2> Water Resources in the Middle East
Country / RiverFlows / AnnualWithdrawal ofWater / Renewable
WaterResources / Water Use
D Ind Agr
In Out
km³/yr / Total /c Share
km³/yr m³ % / Total /c
km³/yr m³ / %
Egypt / 56.5 / 0.0 / 56.4 / 1202 / 97 / 1.80 / 30 / 7 / 5 / 88
Syria / 27.9 / 30.0 / 3.34 / 449 / 9 / 7.60 / 610 / 7 / 10 / 83
Jordan / 0.4 / 0.0 / 0.45 / 173 / 41 / 0.70 / 160 / 29 / 6 / 65
Lebanon / 0.0 / 0.9 / 0.75 / 271 / 16 / 4.80 / 1620 / 11 / 4 / 85
OPT* / 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.22 / 124 / 30 / 0.72 / 400 / 23 / 1 / 76
Iraq / 66.0 / 0.0 / 42.80 / 4575 / 43 / 34.00 / 1800 / 3 / 5 / 92
Israel / 0.5 / 0.0 / 1.90 / 447 / 88 / 1.70 / 370 / 16 / 5 / 79
S. Arabia / 0.0 / 0.0 / 2.23 / 321 / 106 / 2.20 / 160 / 45 / 8 / 47
UAE / 0.0 / 0.0 / 0.42 / 429 / 140 / 0.30 / 190 / 11 / 9 / 80
Turkey / 7.0 / 69.0 / 15.6 / 317 / 8 / 196.0 / 3520 / 24 / 19 / 57
Source: Marwan Haddad, “An Approach for Regional Management of Water Shortages in the Middle East,” Ali I. Bagis, ed., Water as an Element of Cooperation in the Middle East (Ankara: Hacettepe University), 1994, P. 71.
Note : OPT: Occupied Palestinian Territory (The West Bank including East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip). /c = Per Capita, Share = Percent of annual withdrawal to internal renewable resources, Km = kilometer; D = domestic; Ind = Industrial; Agr = Agricultural, In = Into the country from other countries; Out = Out of the country, UAE = United Arab Emirates
This depletion has been compounded by wide spread domestic pollution which has contributed to the general decline in the quality of available water. Expanding initiatives in agriculture and industry have further reduced regional water availability. Driven by increasing populations, many countries have begun to over exploit their agricultural capabilities, resulting in the reduction of arable land. As result, per capita water availability in the Middle East has become the worst in the world representing only 33 percent of Asian and 15 percent of African levels. Nor have current desalination projects in the region proven capable of meeting growing demands. The high energy and large cost associated with desalination has limited efforts to the oil rich Gulf States, such as Saudi Arabia[4]. The extent of the emerging water crisis is evidenced in a recent statement by Israel’s Minister of Environment, Dalia Itzik, who warned that “within three or four months, and especially next year, if there is drought this winter we might have no water in the taps, but what there is will be undrinkable.[5]”
In the case of Renewable fresh water resources there is no universal uniform on it since there is no international consensus on how to define and measure renewable fresh water resources.As seen in <Table 2-3>, the list of water-scarce countries in 1955 was seven including three Middle Eastern countries: Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait.By 1990, 13 were added among them eight from the Middle East: Algeria, Israel/Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.UN studies anticipate adding another 10 countries by the year 2025 seven of them are from the Middle East: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Oman and Syria. This means that by the year 2025 some eighteen countries in this troublesome region will suffer from water shortages.
<Table 2-3> The Annual Renewable fresh water Available Per Person ranked by 1990 Availability in Cubic Meters
Country / 1955 / 1990 / 2025Algeria / 1,770 / 689 / 332
Bahrain / 1,427 / 117 / 68
Egypt / 2,561 / 1,123 / 630
Iran / 6,203 / 2,203 / 816
Iraq / 18,441 / 6,029 / 2,356
Israel / 1,229 / 461 / 264
Jordan / 906 / 327 / 121
Kuwait / 147 / 23 / 9
Lebanon / 3,088 / 1,818 / 1,113
Libya / 4,105 / 1,017 / 359
Morocco / 2,763 / 1,117 / 590
Oman / 4,240 / 1,266 / 410
Qatar / 808 / 75 / 57
Saudi Arabia / 1,266 / 306 / 113
Sudan / 11,899 / 4,792 / 1,993
Syria / 6,500 / 2,087 / 732
Tunisia / 1,127 / 540 / 324
Turkey / 8,509 / 3,626 / 2,186
UAE / 6,196 / 308 / 176
Yemen / 1,098 / 445 / 152
Source: Adel Darwish,Water Wars, 1994.
The Middle East is also a region where figures of water withdrawal as percentage of renewable water supplies are among the highest in the world, while the renewal rate is rather slow because of the arid nature of the land[6].
3. Water Conflict and Potential 'Water Wars'
1. Water Conflict in the Middle East
Shortage of water could lead to major political conflictsaround the world. Over 20 countries depend on the flowof water from other nations for much of their watersupply. For instance, the Nile flows through Ethiopia,Sudan and Egypt. If population rises as expected inthese countries from 150 million today to 340 million in2050, the UN has suggested that competition forincreasingly scarce water resources may lead to regionalconflict.Many as essential thus see investment in international diplomacy alongside aid[7].
The crisis over water in the Middle East is escalating. Despite existing agreements, dwindling resources – increasingly affected by pollution, agricultural/industrial initiatives and population growth – have elevated the strategic importance of water in the region.The number of water-scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa has risen from 3 in 1955 (Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait) to 11 by 1990 (with the inclusion of Algeria, Israel and the Occupied Territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen). Another 7 are anticipated to join the list by 2025 (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Oman and Syria).
Adding to its scarcity, much of Middle Eastern water stems from three major waterways: the Tigris-Euphrates, Nile and Jordan River systems. Mutual reliance on these resources has made water a catalyst for conflict, spurring confrontations such as the 1967 War (fomented by Syria’s attempts to divert water from Israel) and the Iran-Iraq War (which erupted from disputes over water claims and availability). Recognition of water’s role as an obstacle in interstate relations has spurred numerous attempts at resolution, including diplomatic efforts (most notably the 1953-1955 U.S.-brokered Johnston negotiations) and bilateral and multilateral treaty efforts, ranging from the 1959 Agreement for the Full Utilization of Nile Waters to the 1994 Israeli-Jordanian Treaty.Increasingly, however, and despite these agreements, nations have begun to come into conflict over water. The natural scarcity of regional supplies, historically a point of contention, has been reduced to crisis proportions by a variety of factors.
Influenced by declining availability and reductions in overall quality, crisis zones have begun to emerge along the major rivers of the region. Evolving conflicts – between Turkey and Syria over the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers; in the Jordan River Basin between Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan; among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the Nile River; and within Saudi Arabia – are manifestations of water’s growing role as a strategic and political force[8].
Facing historical, psychological and political barriers that have impeded cooperation and deadlocked diplomacy, nations in the region are sliding toward conflict over water. Water’s growing role in the emerging hydropolitics of the region has stressed the need for a new approach to safeguard this diminishing resource. The integration of water into developing strategic cooperation frameworks becoming visible among regional states could facilitate the protection and preservation of water resources. This interaction could eventually pave the way for the long-term security of Middle East water. In light of the formidable barriers that have prevented agreement to date, such an approach may represent the only method by which to turn back the tide of the new water politics of the Middle East[9].
1)Turkey – Syria (The Tigris and Euphrates)
The tigris and euphrates form a complex water system. The Tigris and Euphrates are two of the longest and most famous rivers in the world. Both rise in the high mountains of northeastern Anatolia and flow down through Turkey, Syria, and Iraq and eventually join to form the Shatt Al-Arab 200 km before they flow into the Gulf. Between them they account for about 28.5 per cent of Turkey's total surface water flow. However the geography of the two rivers is very different.
The contribution from each riparian country also varies sharply. Contribution of Turkey[10], Syria and Iraq to the Euphrates and their demands is shown in Figure 1.
(Figure 1) Contribution of Turkey, Syria and Iraq to the Euphrates and their Demands (in Billion cubic meters per year)
Source: Republic of Turkey, Water: A source of conflict of cooperation in the Middle East?
Despite the signing of a protocol ensuring Syrian access to Euphrates water in 1987, Turkish development efforts have increasingly threatened to marginalize and even eliminate Syrian access to water. Most notably, the Southeast Anatolia (GAP) Project[11] has provided Turkey, situated at the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates River system, extensive control over the flow of Euphrates water. Turkish disruption of the flow of the Euphrates in January 1990 to fill water reservoirs in front of the Attaturk dam highlighted Syrian vulnerability to Turkish control over upstream water resources. Further complicating the issue is Syria’s continued support for the extremist PKK (Kurdish Workers’ Party) in its insurgency against Turkey, a move that has prompted Turkey to threaten a blockade of water.
In the future, Turkish-Syrian disputes over water could escalate into regional conflict. Both Syria and Iraq, situated downstream from Ankara, have become increasingly threatened by Turkey’s large-scale consolidation efforts. Once fully operational, the GAP Project may reduce Euphrates water to Syria by 40% and Iraq by up to 80%. Such activity, critical for Syria, will also be significant enough to substantially affect Iraq, currently somewhat autonomous because of its access to Tigris River water. In addition, aggressive Turkish acquisition efforts, currently concentrated on the GAP Project, are anticipated in the future to focus upon Tigris River water as well. Though currently divided in their opposition to Turkish efforts, such activity could nudge Syria and Iraq – despite their differences – into a strategic alliance, possibly destabilizing the region and precipitating a regional conflict[12].
2) Jordan – Israel – Palestinian Authority
The Jordan River Basin has also emerged as a flashpoint for conflict over water. Resources in the area, suffering serious overuse as a result of pollution and population growth, have increasingly impacted interstate relations. Between Jordan and Israel, water resource issues are reaching a fever pitch.
Despite the 1994 Israeli-Jordanian Treaty – which established comprehensive guidelines regulating the distribution, preservation and availability of water from the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers – conflicts over water have risen to the forefront of relations between the two countries. Jordan, fed only by underground sources and the Jordan River, has experienced an escalating water deficit – one that is expected to reach 250 million cubic meters (nearly 1/3rd of current annual consumption) by 2010. At the same time, Israel – currently utilizing almost all-available water from its National Water System (consisting of the West Bank Mountain Aquifer, the Coastal Aquifer and the Lake Kinneret Basin) – has been forced to resort to over exploitation of available resources for expanding agricultural and industrial ventures.
As a result, water has become a critical bone of contention between the two countries, a tension exacerbated by the recent effects of the region’s harsh climate. Facing a looming deficit in water availability brought about by lingering drought conditions, Israel halved its annual allocation of 2 billion cubic feet of water to Jordan in March 1999. Jordan, hit hard and lacking adequate desalinization capabilities, has in turn found itself unable to sustain current levels of consumption, declaring drought conditions and mandating water rationing in May 1999.