Module 3:Understand causes and effects of disasters as described by statistics

Module 3: (WBT InWent/GC21Improve Disaster Risk Management in India by Using Knowledge-Base and Statistics)
by
Klaus Röder
Mail:

A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and Statistics

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Introduction

How can we predict future natural and industrial disasters? We have pointed darts in our quiver, we know about Indian knowledgebase and the statistical techniques. Whicharea, district or a state are particularly subject to your working area and were do we want to predict possible hazards and damages? For the past years,Indian knowledgebase has collected information, which will be helpful to predict disasters. The combination of information sources and forecasting techniques of statisticswill expandyour working knowledge.You have become or will become an expert with these data and forecast techniquesimproving your knowledge. Backed by the acquired knowledge your role of expertise will allow forecasting disaster riskss but will alsopoint clearly to the uncertainties and limits of prevision techniquesfor the benefit of Disaster Risk Management.

Content

1Task

2Process

3Resources

3.1Mandatory learning material to use

3.2Useful Tools and Media

3.3Further readings

4Evaluation

5Conclusion

6Poll

7Credits & References

1Task

  • Identify type of disaster, areaand action: Prediction for the use of Prevention and preparedness or relief, recovery and development of past-disasters
  • Propose Data sources and a Data set to be used for the prediction of disasters to improve the Disaster Risk Management according to the examples learned during the Web Based Training (WBT)
  • Identify reliability and differences of forecasts in districts / states about effects and possible damages of disaster
  • Look for arguments to prove, if data permits, that disaster forecast has changed and can improve Disaster Risk Management.
  • Analyse und justify the Data and Methodto be used
  • Propose forecasting method and results accordingly
  • Write down the results in a WORD Document of 5 to 10 pages and published on the Forum of the WBT of CG21, details in the process section

2Process

  • Learn about forecasting disasters and possible damages, using theBihar state as an example (WBT, Mod 3, Unit 1 ff)
  • Identifydistricts and areas according to the techniques learned about forecasting disasters.
  • Describe technique according to the WBT content and refer to the best practice used there
  • Use EXCEL template to analyze district / state disaster patterns and forecasting success.
  • Write down or show in the most catching way (use pictures and news reports if possible), what yourforecasting disaster scenario is and where. Identify the area of your case very clearly.
  • Describe phase of DRM you want to improve according to your results?
  • Describe action of Pre-disaster DRM (Prevention, Mitigation and/or Preparedness) or Past-DisasterDRM (Relief, Recovery and/or Development) reflecting the findings of the previous techniques and Analysis.
  • Publish your subject on the forum to inform other participants and the tutors
  • Describe the existing and relevant or missing data. A template for this is prepared and should be used (Mod3_Template_EXCEL). Complete this template to describe forecasts with data like:time series, maps series, reports, etc.
  • Apart from EXCEL and other statistical tools (Graphs), you may use other presentation media like flowcharts, summary tables, concept maps, or other organizing structures. Present the results in the most catching and convincing way.
  • The publication result should be a WORD Document of less than 5written pages (pictures, graphs and documentary can be additional) and be published on the Forum of the WBT of CG21, it should contain the above and:
  • personal insights
  • create a summary;
  • include a persuasive message or a journalistic account (try to convince others of the relevance of your approach)
  • a creative work, something new in this DRM scenario which has not been used before
  • You can use the EXCEL tools used in other modules or other technical tools (e.g. computer programs) if the result and the approach will be transparent to the reader
  • You should refer to the Module3 of the WBT of GC21 for examples of best practices using knowledgebase andstatistical techniques for improving Disaster Risk Management and you may use the content of the Best Practices in the module as template for your report.
  • Feedback by the tutors on the Forum of the WBT of CG21is guaranteed within an agreed period of 3 work days after publication

3Resources

The following online and offline resources will need to access in order to complete the task. The orientation is mainly done through the previous WBT module showing examples and best practices how data can improve knowledge and handling of natural risks for the benefit of Disaster Risk Management.Some common resources, like the EXCEL template, are mandatory to use and others like references to general information sources (statistics), can be considered by a participant

3.1Mandatory Tools, Media and Learning material to use

  • The national portal of India (
  • The States and UnionTerritories (
  • State government portals
  • and / or district websites
  • ISRO – Disaster ManagementSupport Programme Decision Support Centre
  • State Domestic Products for calculation of material losses
  • Population Data of India,Census of India
  • Meteorological Indicators: India Meteorological Department
  • EXCEL template to be filled with existing, relevant, missing data essential for the task. A template for this is prepared

(Mod3_Template_EXCEL).

3.2OptionalTools and Media

  • Any Map service for providing visual reference to the arrears, like “Maps of India”
  • What statistics can do for comparing life situations by using statistical indicators (here on an international scale) is beautifully shown by the google sponsored The Gapminder website, which helps you analyse indicators of development:
  • Improving statistical analysis of EXCEL

statistiXL greatly extends this feature set to encompass statistical analysis without the need to learn how to use an entirely new application from scratch tool

  • A useful website: Forecasting Principles – Evidence based forecasting

3.3Further readings

  • These documents are helpful to improve your knowledge on statistics, terminology, methods and also of limits and abuses of statistics.
  • How to Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff, Irving Geis

Here is a book to arm the innocent against the wiles of the statistical world, which manages to supply the reader with caution aplenty, with understandable text and amusing illustration

  • A statistical Glossary by Valeri J.Easton and John H.McColl
  • Bowermann, O´Connell ,Business Statistics in Practice

McGraw-Hill, 3rd Edition ISBN 0-07-247026-7

  • The book places great emphasis on its use of casestudies, many of which are authentic problemsencountered by the authors, their colleagues or formerstudents.
  • Disasters by design: a reassessment of natural hazards in the United States Von Dennis S. Mileti

JOSEPH HENRY PRESS • 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. • Washington D.C. 20418ISBN 0-309-06360-4

  • A good example, how to convince the audience using statistics and gapminder Look at the videos by Hans Rosling

4Evaluation

Your individual performance will be evaluated according to the following grid. Your tutor will attribute credit points according to your performance in the two different sections. In each section you can reach 4 different levels of achievement: Beginning (1), Developing (2), Accomplished (3) Exemplary (4) and you will receive a certificate of Excellence according to your performance. So a total of 100 points can be reached. Don’t hesitate to ask your tutors on the discussion forum of the WBT/GC21 site if you have difficulties understanding this scheme or if you disagree with the evaluation. For each of the levels you gain an equal share of points, e.g. for the evaluation in the first row (Completeness of tasks given ) you will receive 15 points for reaching level 1, 30 for level 2, 45 for level 3 and 60 for the maximum. Equally you will receive for the evaluation in the second row (Communication of methods and tools used) 10, 20, 30 and 40 points reaching the corresponding levels during the evaluation.

A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and Statistics

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Beginning
1 / Developing
2 / Accomplished
3 / Exemplary
4 / Score
Completeness of tasks given / Identification of type of disaster, Proposal of Data sources and forecasting technique to be used for the improved Disaster Risk Management description has been published as text / Proposal of Data sources and Data to be used in EXCEL template have been published / Proposal of Data sources and a Data to be used in EXCEL template +Analysis and justification of method have been published / Proposal of Data sources and a Data to be used in EXCEL template +Analysis and justification of method, forecasting techniques + proposal of DRM actions have been published / 60
Communication of methods and tools used / Text Description used as Descriptive method / Text Description used + EXCEL templates completed and comprehensively commented / Text Description used + EXCEL templates completed and map sources analyzed. Presentation and statistical methodsand techniques included. / Text Description used + EXCEL templates completed. Data sources aptitude for forecasting analyzed. Presentationof statistical methods included.Forecasting and limits assessment included and a solution is proposed based on Indian knowledgebase for improving the Disaster Risk Management in convincing style / 40

A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and Statistics

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5Conclusion

You have proven here how to use forecastig techniques and information of the Indian knowledgebase to improve knowledge and handling of natural risks in your working area for the benefit of Disaster Risk Management.

You may ask yourself, if your abilities will change the Standard Operation Procedures of Disaster Risk Management in your working environment. This, to some extent, will depend on you: How you are able to communicate your knowledge to your colleagues and superiors. Try your best for the benefit of the people impaired or in risk of being affected by disasters.

6Poll

Please vote in the poll for this module which you find in the GC21 website.

  • Did you face difficulties to understand the reasoning for developing this proposal?
  • Do you think that your proposal reflects reality and that the use of the Indian knowledgebase will improve Disaster Risk Management of your working area?
  • Was the learning time and pervious modules sufficient to complete the task?
  • Did you get useful comments from your tutors and other participants?

7Credits & References

Picture on page2: copyright DIGITALGLOBE

  • Credits to the Creators of WebQuest: The WebQuest Page and the Design Patterns, so that participants can acquire the latest version of this template and training materials.

Published by InWEnt GmbH, 2010

CREATIVE COMMONS PUBLIC LICENSE,
Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0

A Case Study: Improved Handling of Natural and Industrial Risks By Using Indian Knowledge-Base and Statistics

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