Mats Olsson

Distinguished panel members,Distinguished delegates,Ladies and gentlemen,
After a slow uptake, which many of us tend to forget is always significant for any technology introduced in the market, the every new technology, 3G is quickly reaching mass market status and catching a momentum globally and in nation. Wide-band CDMA reached at the end of March this year 21.4 million subscribers globally, already 12 million are in this Asia Pacific and I can mention that just the other day we passed 25 million subscribers globally. That means that we will exceed 50 million wide-band CDMA customers globally by the end of this year. And that is definitely a mass market. 61 of the current networks or currently commercial service, 9 of which are here in the Asia Pacific. And very importantly, there are more better and cheaper terminals accelerating into that mass market this very year. On CDMA-2001X Video there were 12 million global subscribers at the end of March, 17 networks in commercial service, 7 of which here in the Asia Pacific. 3G services are also gaining popularity. We have the evolution to mobile treatment play to listen, Internet, TV across your mobile, home and office emerging. We also have successful cases like three in Italy with 80% search contents downloads over the last 6 months, mobile treatment in four months reaching 6.6 million minutes till January 2005. Mobile broadband with PC con is of course a reality already and mobile TV will be soon introduced to the market.
Very importantly is to understand that 2G to 3G is an evolution. It may be a significant evolution. But it is not a changeover because 3G builds on the platform and the evolution that 2G has already established. 3G leverages on 2G coverage by seamless handover, enables gradual introduction and buildup of 3G and protects the significant investments that have been already done in 2G. 3G and 2G share a common evolution, and 3G and 2G share common and seamless service applications. They share very often sites, so you can reuse physical radio-station sites and they share a common transmission network. All wide-band CDMA handsets and users keep the same number and carry compatible services. The M-users or consumers don't feel that they are two networks. Most 3G operators with existing 2G networks treat 2G and 3G as one network with 2 access. 3G, at capacity and service capabilities, on top of 2G. 2G and 3G have a coordinated evolution. They would complement each other and they will coexist for a long time. In other words, investment is never wasted.
So what are then the 3G opportunities for Asia in general and China in particular? Well, from an operator's perspective, it will realize full business potential with the service convergence and ultimately with mobile treatment play. They are going overseas, expanding there based on a common technology platform. System vendors, where Asian vendors will be going overseas and global vendors would be using Asia as a major base based on 3G introduction, hence vendors will be encouraged by early introduction of 3G. And likewise, there is a significant potential market for content providers and software application developers. And it all depends on timing. The wireless evolution, looking forward, well you all remember the 2G situation, converging TDMA, GEM and PDC into the GSM, GPRS and H-track at the stage of 2.5G. On 3G, you have UMTS, either FTD or TDD, involve UMTS based on HSDPA and IMS and then the third evolution to being 3G or 4G. While there is the alternative road- the CDMA1 evolving into CDMA2001X as an intermediate standard, and then CDMA2001X DVDO or DVDE. And it is important to understand that 3G will pave the foundation for 4G just as 2G paid for 3G. And waiting to jump or leap for a generation will lose a generation worth of these opportunities. And you can just consider for yourself what would have happened if we decide to leap off to 2G.
Thank you very much for your attention!
Speech by Mats Olsson, Vice President of Ericsson Group and President of Ericsson Greater China On the Panel: 3G Opportunities in Asia