Electronic Supplementary Material

The influence of economic growth, population, and fossil fuel scarcity on energy investments

Figure 1 in the paper shows results for the low growth. Figure S1 presents the same analysis for the fast growth case. When the fast growth case is considered the following considerations can be made. When economic growth is fast, the reduction in energy intensity and in the intensity component is greater. In contrast, the increase in energy intensity due to the structural effect is lower. In both cases with slow and fast growth, slow convergence reduces energy intensity improvements via the R&D channel.

Figure S1: Decomposition of energy intensity in structural (Str) and intensity effects (Int) across scenarios varying convergence assumptions under fast growth cases. Red lines show the total effect (Tot)

Table S1: OECD annual average (over the century) energy investments (Billion 2005 US$/yr), energy prices in 2100 ($/GJ), energy and carbon intensity in 2100 (percentage change to 2005) under different fossil scenarios

BAU DEF=Med Pop-Medium Growth - Fast Convergence, med oil, med gas, med coal; BAU LO Fos=BAU DEF low oil – low gas – low coal; BAU HI Coal=BAU DEF low oil – low gas – high coal; BAU LO Oil=BAU DEF low oil – high gas – high coal; BAU LO Oil HI Gas=BAU DEF low oil – high gas – medium coal; BAU HI Fos=BAU DEF high oil – high gas – high coal; BAU HI Gas=BAU DEF medium oil – high gas – medium coal.

OECD countries include USA (United States), WEURO (Western Europe, EU15+EFTA), EEURO (Eastern Europe EU12+European EITs excluding FSU in Transition Economies), KOSAU (Korea, South Africa, Australia), CAJANZ (Canada, Japan, New Zealand).

Table S2: Scenario description

Drivers
Policy / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Slow Growth
Slow Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Fast Growth
Fast Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / High Pop
Slow Growth
Slow Conv
High Pop / Slow Growth
Slow Conv
Slow Growth
Slow Conv
Med Pop / Fast Growth
Slow Conv
Fast Growth
Slow Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop
Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / High Fossils
High Oil
High Gas
High Coal / Low Fossils
Low Oil
Low Gas
Low Coal / Low Oil
Low Oil
High Gas
High Coal / High Coal
Low Oil
Low Gas
High Coal / Low Oil, High Gas
Low Oil
High Gas
Med Coal / High Gas
Med Oil
High Gas
Med Coal
Baseline / ROSE111
Baseline
Default Scenario
BAU DEF / ROSE121
Baseline
Slow Growth
Scenario
BAU SL Gr / ROSE131
Baseline
Fast Growth
Scenario
BAU FS Gr / ROSE141
Baseline
High Pop
Scenario
BAU HI Pop / RoSE1B1
Baseline Slow Growth and Convergence
Scenario
BAU
SL Gr SL Con / ROSE151
Baseline Fast Growth &Slow Convergence
Scenario
BAU
FS Gr SL Con / ROSE161
Baseline
High Fossils
Scenario
BAU HI Fos / ROSE171
Baseline
Low Fossils
Scenario
BAU LO Fos / ROSE181
Baseline
Low Oil
Scenario
BAU LO Oil / ROSE191
Baseline
High Coal
Scenario
BAU HI Coal / ROSE1A1
Baseline
Low Oil and High Gas Scenario
BAU
LO Oil HI Gas / ROSE1C1
Baseline
High Gas
Scenario
BAU HI Gas
450 ppm CO2-equiv / ROSE211
450 DEF / ROSE221
450 SL Gr / ROSE231
450 FS Gr / ROSE241
450 HI Pop / ROSE251
450
FS Gr SL Con / ROSE261
450 HI Fos / ROSE271
450 LO Fos / ROSE281
450 LO Oil / ROSE291
450 HI Coal / ROSE2C1
450 HI Gas
550 ppm CO2-equiv / ROSE311
550 DEF / ROSE321
550 SL Gr / ROSE331
550 FS Gr / ROSE341
550 HI Pop / ROSE351
550
FS Gr SL Con / ROSE361
550 HI Fos / ROSE371
550 LO Fos / ROSE381
550 LO Oil / ROSE391
550 HI Coal / ROSE3C1
550 HI Gas
Drivers
Policy / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Slow Growth
Slow Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Fast Growth
Fast Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / High Pop
Slow Growth
Slow Conv
High Pop / Slow Growth
Slow Conv
Slow Growth
Slow Conv
Med Pop / Fast Growth
Slow Conv
Fast Growth
Slow Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop / Med Growth
Med Growth
Fast Conv
Med Pop
Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / Med Fossils
Med Oil
Med Gas
Med Coal / High Fossils
High Oil
High Gas
High Coal / Low Fossils
Low Oil
Low Gas
Low Coal / Low Oil
Low Oil
High Gas
High Coal / High Coal
Low Oil
Low Gas
High Coal / Low Oil, High Gas
Low Oil
High Gas
Med Coal / High Gas
Med Oil
High Gas
Med Coal
Weak Policy / ROSE411
WEAK-POL DEF / ROSE421
WEAK-POL
SL Gr / ROSE431
WEAK-POL
FS Gr / ROSE451
WEAK-POL
FS Gr SL Con
450 ppm CO2-equiv after 2020 / ROSE511
WEAK-2020
DEF / ROSE521
WEAK-2020
SL Gr / ROSE531
WEAK-2020
FS Gr / ROSE551
WEAK-2020
FS Gr SL Con
450ppm CO2-equiv after 2030 / ROSE611
WEAK-2030
DEF / ROSE621
WEAK-2030
SL Gr / ROSE631
WEAK-2030
FS Gr / ROSE651
WEAK-2030
FS Gr SL Con