Memorandum to Board of Education – Layoff Notice Information
Page 2
March 5, 2011
MEMORANDUM
TO: Members of the Board of Education
FROM: P. Stover via W. Kowba
DATE: March 5, 2011
SUBJECT: Budget Forecasting, Layoffs and Answers to Questions
We are all engaged in a very difficult process of decision making and analysis related to the district’s budget shortfall. The purpose of this memo is to provide a framework for staffs’ understanding of the task before us and limits on what we must consider as we move forward.
In addition to our overview thoughts below there are several informational attachments to this memo. For the Board’s information the following is a list of attachments:
· Attachment 1 – PKS Summary Table
· Attachment 2 – PKS Notice Details
· Attachment 3 – PKS Site/department Impacts
· Attachment 4 – Responses to Board Questions
Forecasts of future vacancies, attrition, leaves, etc. cannot be used for the purposes and intent of the March 15 preliminary PKS adoption. Neither Finance nor HR can or will make projections nor create preliminary budgets based on guesstimates of what may happen over the next six months. It is one thing for stakeholder groups to indicate what they believe will happen. None of these beliefs can be used by Finance or HR when creating forecasts or budgets. Neither can historical trends be used for the purposes of the PKS process. Predictions and trend data cannot disproportionately drive the process. They are helpful for debating this or that point related to an eventual outcome; however they play a minimal role in what Finance and HR have to do.
Our staff must use facts-based data driven by what is, not by what might be, or what anyone thinks will be. Budgeting is science integrating all data that is known. Predicting the future is an art that is dependent on many variables. Neither the State nor the County will allow us the luxury of the latter. Financial data must be based on reasonable assumptions of what is; not of what may be.
Our collective task is not to debate, argue or defend what will or might be, nor to reflect on what has been. We can, for the purpose of the task at hand, only deal with what is . . . those facts that are known. Those who oppose the PKS process have an unfettered and unlimited ability to argue from the perspective of what they believe will be. Ours is not to engage them in that argument, but to understand that we have parameters and strictures on our activities that limit us to the data as we know them to be. Only those forces aligned against what has to be done have the luxury of predicting to make their point.
In that sense, prognostications related to future resignations, retirements, leave taking, etc. have no impact on the March 15 second interim data. Predicting how many temporaries and/or probationary employees will be needed (or not needed) in the future has very limited impact on the March 15 second interim data, or on the PKS process. Enrollment projections do have impact on budgeting and March 15 second interim data.
Related to specific issues:
a) Resignations: The 78 resignations (as of today – 83) have an effective date ranging from 7/1/10 to 6/30/11. The majority of these positions have already been filled. They are not available for us to reduce for the second interim process. Resignations with a future date after the end of the school year are the only ones that can be considered vacant. Even then, they do not impact the second interim (March 15) process because the positions being vacated by the retiree must, in the vast number of cases, be filled. For example a second grade teacher resigns . . . the children are still present in the school and must be taught. Mrs. Smith’s resignation saves no money, except that she may be replaced by a teacher more junior in rank, thus saving a salary differential. This however, again is a future possibility and any such savings cannot be factored into a March 15 budgetary process.
b) Retirements: The same factors pertain to retirements as a). No funds are saved unless the position being vacated by the retiree is eliminated. We do not have the luxury of building estimates on those savings into the second interim. Therefore those savings, however real they may eventually be, cannot be included in March 15 data.
c) Temporaries: The elimination of and need for future temporary positions will play a role in the ultimate number of permanent staff layoffs. This may be balanced by the number of permanent teachers returning from leave of absence. As of this date there are more teachers on leave of absence than there are temporary teachers. This is a different situation from previous years and mitigates the potential savings from temporary position elimination. At any rate, the ultimate savings or lack thereof from temporary positions cannot be included in the March 15 second interim, or in the PKS resolution of the same date. We are back to predicting; an interesting activity, but not an allowable part of the work we must do.
d) Enrollment Projections: The Finance Department traditionally allocates resources based on a 'low-range' projection which lowers the official enrollment projection by 1%. This has proved a prudent and conservative method of teacher allocation that is particularly useful in periods of declining enrollment. It should be noted that the district-operated schools portion of the enrollment projection is likely to be overstated for next year; this is because since the projection was calculated (in December 2010), the Board has approved the opening of around 5 new charter schools for 2011-12. The impact of these new charters is not included in the projections, but to the extent they all open their doors in 2011-12, they will reduce the district-operated portion of the enrollment projection. The low range allocation does not represent a significant FTE decrease in teachers. For 2011/12, if enrollment projections are achieved, it represents a maximum of 35 FTEs district-wide. The utilization of this methodology has proven to be accurate over time. The demographer's goal is to stay within 1% of the actual enrollment total. In the last five years, this goal has been attained three times, and in the other two years, the variance was 1.14% and 1.22%.
e) Restoration PKS: It is not possible at this time to complete a restoration PKS. After consultation with Ron and Sandra they both concur that it is impossible to do that now with any validity to the outcome. There is no way to know or predict which teachers at which schools will be restored. The factors involved in such restoration are too complex for predictive purposes. Staff has included in the questions and answers memo a list of the 78 (now 83) attrition staff members by certification.
There is no question that ultimately and eventually, the March 15 projections and preliminary budget will change. They will change as new facts develop over time. This is an inevitable part of the process. It is not due to inaccuracy of March 15 data, nor to inadequacy of the work done by staff in preparation for the same. Staff knows that change is the inevitable result of the intersection of time and human activity.
Right now, neither staff nor the Board has the luxury of utilizing the predictive validity that comes after the passage of time. State law, education code and the expectations of those who supervise the work of the district (beyond the Board) all demand that both the Board and the staff make decisions based on what is as of the point in time that the decision must be made (March 10).
The process is indeed flawed, not because of those who engage the data, but because of the lack of coordination of time, deadlines and ultimate realities stemming from external regulation, rules and expectations. These challenges do not free us from decision making. They ultimately are frustrating and take a human toll on all who must participate. The Board, all staff and stakeholders are united in this reality. We are all joined together by our responsibility for our future.
###
Distribution: Cabinet
ATTACHMENT 1 – PKS Summary Table
SAN DIEGO UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT
EXHIBIT A
February 22, 2011 March 4, 2011
Reduction/Elimination of Particular Kinds of Services
FTE Reduction
Administrators
Central Office Managers 2 12
Principals 8
Vice-principals 15.5
35.5
Career and Technical Education
Computer Concepts and Applications 3
3
Support Services
Library Media 13
School Counseling 59
School Nurse 42
School Psychology 5
119
Elementary Education
Child Development Center 8
Children Center Resource Teachers 4
State- Pre-School Teachers 22
Elementary (K-6) 461 495
Middle/High/Alternative Education
Art 10
Business 2
English 83
Foreign Language: French 2.5
Foreign Language: German 0.2
Foreign Language: Mandarin 0.4
Foreign Language: Spanish 14
Home Economics 2.5
Industrial Technology 1
Mathematics 15
Music 45
Physical Education 20
Science: Biology 11
Science: General Science 3
Social Science 20
229.6
Special Education
Mild/Moderate 38
38
TOTAL FULL TIME EQUIVALENT (FTE) REDUCTION: 920.1
ATTACHMENT 2 – PKS Notice Details
With Board approval of the Resolution Reducing or Eliminating Certain Certificated Services for the 2011-2012 school year, staff will take appropriate action to implement the propose reduction of 920.1 FTE. This information is subject to change with any adjustments to the PKS, number of notices and final identification of staff who will receive preliminary notices of potential layoff.
Impact on Permanent and Probationary Employees/Subject Areas:
The number of notices that need to be issued to achieve the reduction/elimination of 920.1 FTE is 948 with an additional 9 issued to management level employees. Preliminary layoff notices will be issued to 589 permanent employees and 359 probationary employees in the subject areas listed. An additional 114 notices may be necessary as a result of reassignments of teachers with multiple credentials.
Layoff Attribute / Probationary Teacher / Permanent TeachersArt / 6 / 5
Business / 2 / 0
Child Development / 10 / 16
Computer Concepts and Applications / 1 / 0
Elementary (K-6) / 93 / 424
English / 38 / 35
Foreign Language: French / 2 / 1
Foreign Language: Mandarin / 1 / 0
Foreign Language: Spanish / 16 / 0
Health Science / 1 / 1
Home Economics / 0 / 2
Industrial Technology / 0 / 1
Library Media / 4 / 1
Mathematics / 16 / 1
Mild-Moderate / 38 / 5
Music / 10 / 38
Physical Education / 17 / 4
School Counseling / 32 / 27
School Nurse / 25 / 27
School Psychology / 8 / 0
Science: Biology / 11 / 1
Science: General Science / 1 / 0
Social Science / 27 / 0
Subtotal / 359 / 589
Grand Total = 948
Site/Department Impact:
The attached report provides information on the potential site impact with the implementation of the proposed reduction/elimination of positions. The report includes the Site/Department name, total number of personnel in the SDEA bargaining unit, the number of personnel who would receive preliminary notices of layoff and the corresponding percentage. There are 22 site/departments that would have a 25% or greater of the number of personnel that would receive notices and could be eventually laid off. There are several reasons why these sites/departments may face a greater impact. Among them are the higher number of probationary employees and the reduction of staff due to changes with class size reduction.
Site/Department Name / Total SDEA Personnel / Total Personnel Preliminary Notices/Laid Off / Percent Laid OffBaker Elementary / 34 / 15 / 44.12%
Joyner Elementary / 41 / 17 / 41.46%
Barnard Elementary / 17 / 7 / 41.18%
Florence Elementary / 24 / 9 / 37.50%
Sherman Elementary / 35 / 13 / 37.14%
Memorial Preparatory / 35 / 12 / 34.29%
Balboa Elementary / 47 / 15 / 31.91%
Porter Elementary / 57 / 18 / 31.58%
Wellness - Nurses / 157 / 49 / 31.21%
Millennial Tech Middle / 30 / 9 / 30.00%
Mann Middle School / 60 / 18 / 30.00%
Edison Elementary / 44 / 13 / 29.55%
Central Elementary / 51 / 15 / 29.41%
Horton Elementary / 38 / 11 / 28.95%
Visual & Performing Arts / 35 / 10 / 28.57%
Burbank Elementary / 35 / 10 / 28.57%
Parent Svcs & Charter Sch / 18 / 5 / 27.78%
Crown Point Elementary / 18 / 5 / 27.78%
Marshall Elementary / 45 / 12 / 26.67%
Cherokee Point Elementary / 34 / 9 / 26.47%
Brooklyn Children's Center / 4 / 1 / 25.00%
Adult Education / 4 / 1 / 25.00%
Next Steps
On March 10, 2011, staff will be recommending to the Board the adoption of the Resolution Reducing or Eliminating Certain Certificated Services for the 2011-2012 school year and direct staff to take the necessary steps to achieve the 920.1 FTE reduction/elimination. Preliminary notices will be served via personal service and certified mail return receipt requested no later than March 15, 2011 to meet statutory requirements.
ATTACHMENT 3 – Site/Department Impact – Notices of Potential Layoff