Worldwide Concerns

Worldwide Concerns

GV MONITORING

Last updated: 16 Jan 2007

WORLDWIDE CONCERNS

  • CLIENT POKER - NUCLEAR MONITORING – All information about how other countries monitor US nuclear efforts and what countries are most interested in US nuclear efforts. All reports of other countries discussing US nuclear weapons capabilities and development. Interested in worldwide issues of nuclear development.
  • CLIENT POKER – DTRA (Defense Threat Reduction Agency) – Needs to know when other countries or media outlets discuss DTRA, including all events, projects, or other issues that mention or involve DTRA.
  • CLIENT INTEL – MILITANT ISLAM – Watch for “Intel”, the company name on militant Islamist websites or media. Client is also concerned with the company’s perception in Islamist media and how that might relate to militant targeting of its facilities.
  • CLIENT PEROT SYSTEMS- OUTSOURCING SOLUTIONS- developments regarding new locations to outsource, climate for ownership.
  • CLIENT KNUCKLE – CATHOLIC CHURCH CONCERNS - Any and all threats to the Catholic Church, including leaders of the Catholic Church or members, worldwide. Reports of individuals who are victimized by criminals or militants because they are Catholic.
  • CLIENT-API- NATIONALIZATION- both explicit nationalization and nationalization by proxy (for example, a state-controlled company such as Gazprom forcibly gaining majority control of previously privately controlled projects).
  • CLIENT –API-U.S. economic nationalism—example: Dubai Ports deal.
  • CLIENT API- HUMAN RIGHTS ALLEGATIONS- against oil companies.
  • CLIENT API- BILATERAL INVESTMENT TREATIES- info on other country’s perspectives. U.S. treaties in the works, in jeopardy. Client is interested in developments that reveal or affect the other country’s view of the treaty. Client does NOT need the intricate mechanics of the deals; only potential sticking points.
  • CLIENT WEXFORD- INVESTMENT TRENDS – identify what is the next big thing to invest in
  • CLIENT WEXFORD- METALS AND MINING – developments, issues, companies to watch
  • CLIENT WEXFORD- PIRACY – any incidents of piracy in the open sea that affects movement of goods
  • CLIENT WEXFORD- AVIATION– new airlines, developments in the industry, airline mergers GLOBALLY.
  • CLIENT SUEZENERGY-US PUBLIC POLICY REPORTS OR NEWS ON LNG
  • OIL INDUSTRY/ENERGY ISSUES-API/CEDAR HILL CAPITAL/SUEZ ENERGY/WEXFORD/-developments, explorations, issues, companies to watch, security, mergers, basically everything. *Threats to US energy infrastructure (Suez)
  • BIRD FLU GLOBALLY-API/WEXFORD/CEDAR HILL CAPITAL

ASIA –

  • CLIENT INTEL –CITY OF PENANG, MALAYSIA – infrastructure and potential disruptions (including political stability concerns) to supply chain at their primary facility in the city.
  • CLIENT INTEL – PHILIPPINES– Militant and criminal activity in the country. The client is particularly interested in problems with ASG, threats within Manila, or threats that may disrupt their supply chain.
  • CLIENT INTEL – MALAYSIA – Changes in the perception of westerners and western business in the country. Militant problems throughout the country that threaten to disrupt operations.
  • CLIENT COKE – CHINA –Any shifts or changes in the security environment or any indications of problems that could occur during the 2008 Beijing games. General shifts in political stability or control are also very important to the client. Interested in the potential threat from Uighurs, Falun Gong, and other domestic threats ahead of the torch run (through ALL Chinese provinces) and other Olympic events.
  • CLIENT COKE – THAILAND – Militant and criminal problems in Bangkok and the southern provinces, including the southern insurgency. Particularly interested in any attacks against business targets these areas, especially those that have the ability to change the public perception of the company or brand, or problems that will disrupt bottling operations or access to water supplies.
  • CLIENT PEROT –CHINA–BUSINESS/SECURITY ENVIRONMENT Climate for ownership and US businesses, terrorism and unrest.
  • CLIENT CEDAR HILL CAPITAL – CHINA- Political and economic outlook of the country-things that will have a large impact on these outlooks.
  • CLIENT SUEZ ENERGY- JAPAN and CHINA- energy issues, any and all.
  • CLIENT API – CHINA- Growing energy demands. Any forecasts or future plans of oil/nat gas industry.
  • CLIENT WGI - CHINA – ECON/INVESTMENT - signs of instability in banking sector, major shifts or accelerations in economic trends (FDI, real estate prices); general shifts in government stability or control. Client also wants to follow China’s foreign energy investments.
  • CLIENT- PEROT SYSTEMS-PHILIPPINES – Terrorism and unrest.
  • CLIENT- GENERAL DYNAMICS- SOUTHEASTASIA – Security and business environment for American companies.

SOUTH ASIA –

  • CLIENT INTEL – INDIA – Problems with militant groups that threaten operations, especially in Bangalore and Mumbai. Very concerned with the potential for militants to change their target set and attack IT infrastructure or westerners within the country. Concerned with transportation networks for goods and services through the country. *Concerned with groups intentions and capabilities, WANT ANALYSIS OF SITUATION NOT NEWS FEEDS.
  • CLIENT COKE – INDIA - Militant or activist threats that have the potential to disrupt operations throughout the country. All Naxalite threats that have the potential to disrupt operations, or shifts in targeting and method of attack. Any issues that have the potential to damage the people's perception of the company and the brand. *Concerned with groups intentions and capabilities, WANT ANALYSIS OF SITUATION NOT NEWS FEEDS. ANALYSTS NEED TO KNOW WHERE COKE FACILITIES ARE IN THE COUNTRY.
  • CLIENT LUCENT – SRI LANKA – Indications of militant strength and support within Colombo. Indications that the militants intend to strike in Colombo. Problems with the security situation for western expats living in Colombo, or traveling briefly around the major roads in the country.
  • CLIENT- PEROT SYSTEMS- INDIA – terrorism, threats to security in Bangalore, Noida, Chani, Coimbatore
  • CLIENT- GENERAL DYNAMICS- INDIA - Security, business environment for American companies.

EUROPE –

  • CLIENT KNUCKLE – ITALY – CATHOLICCHURCH - Any and all potential or real threats against the Vatican or the Catholic Church. Shifts and changes in the personal and travel security situation in Rome.
  • CLIENT PEROT SYSTEMS- LONDON-FRANKFURT-personnel security.
  • CLIENT PEROT - EASTERN EUROPE – Romania, Poland, terrorism/unrest
  • CLIENT CEDAR HILL CAPTIAL-KAZAKHSTAN - Political and economic outlook of the country – things that will have a large impact on these outlooks
  • CLIENT SUEZ ENERGY- EUROPE- GAZPROM- News of supplies of LNG or pipeline gas to Europe.
  • CLIENT SUEZ ENERGY- CALYPSO PIPELINE PROJECT – Any information.
  • CLIENT ITT-POLAND-personnel security/terrorism/unrest.

AFRICA –

  • CLIENT ADM – COTE D’IVOIRE – POLITICAL STABILITY - Client needs monitoring information to explain the shifts in the political situation and how that might impact business within the country, including activities of the United Nations and other NGOs in the country that may shift the political process. All events that have the potential to destabilize the political system, explaining trends that are emerging within the political process. All events that disrupt cocoa supply and transportation infrastructure in the country.
  • CLIENT ADM – BURKINA FASO – SECURITY – travel security information for westerners. Any indications of negative shifts of the perception of westerners in the country.
  • AFRICA – SECURITY IN ENERGY COUNTRIES - general instability in countries with important energy reserves; threats to extractive industry and foreign personnel anywhere in the region.
  • CLIENT CEDAR HILL CAPITAL- SOUTH AFRICA – Political and economic outlook of the country – things that will have a large impact on these outlooks

SOUTH AMERICA –

  • CLIENT LUCENT – BOLIVIA –Any events that show a change in the general security situation or previously established trends, including criminal threats, nationalization of industries, corruption, political stability, militant threats and infrastructure developments.
  • CLIENT API- CUBA- oil/gas developments.
  • CLIENT API- LATIN AMERICA- oil/gas issues or unrest that will affect oil/gas distribution throughout the region.
  • CLIENT ADM – BRAZIL – SECURITY (Short term until March 1, 2007) – Client is interested in knowing the new developments in the gang situation and other crime and insurgency problems that may disrupt travel of executives to Rio, Sao Paulo and Brasilia from January 18-March 1. Client is tracking on a daily basis—our analysis will be used to augment their own research.
  • CLIENT WGI – LATIN AMERICA- general instability in countries with important energy reserves; threats to extractive industry and foreign personnel anywhere in the region.
  • CLIENT PEROT SYSTEMS- MEXICO- terrorism and unrest.
  • CLIENT CEDAR HILL CAPITAL- BRAZIL – Political and economic outlook of the country – things that will have a large impact on these outlooks.

MIDDLE EAST-

  • CLIENT- API- IRAN- oil and gas issues.
  • CLIENT- WGI- general instability in countries with important energy reserves; threats to extractive industry and foreign personnel anywhere in the region.
  • CLIENT SUEZ ENERGY- TRINIDAD AND MIDDLE EAST- LNG.
  • CLIENT GENERAL DYNAMICS- UAE - Security, business environment for American companies.
  • CLIENT GENERAL DYNAMICS- SAUDI ARABIA - Security, business environment for American companies.
  • CLIENT ITT-SAUDI ARABIA- personnel security/terrorism/unrest.
  • CLIENT ITT-AFGHANISTAN-personnel security/terrorism/unrest – doesn’t need a daily update on attacks; focus on larger trends of insurgency, what major shifts would indicate that certain areas are improving/worsening? Enhanced capabilities of Taliban/AQ?

CLIENTS BACKGROUND INFORMATION:

1) CLIENT: API (American Petroleum Institute)

PRIMARY INTEREST: OIL AND NATURAL GAS IN LATIN AMERICA, FORECASTS AND FUTURE PLANS OF OIL/NAT GAS INDUSTRY

DESCRIPTION: Our primary contact heads the policy department of the primary trade association for the oil and natural gas industry (API). Client is concerned with learning what the “next big thing” will be in the oil and natural gas industry and monitoring the industry strategically.

BRIEFER: JOE DEFEO

2) CLIENT: INTEL

PRIMARY INTEREST:SECURITY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND INDIA

DESCRIPTION: Our client is the head of corporate security and intends to use Stratfor to complete analytical tasks that his team does not have the resources to fulfill. He and his team are responsible for facilities and personnel security in all the company’s facilities in Southeast Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

BRIEFER: ANYA ALFANO

3)CLIENT: COKE

PRIMARY INTEREST: SECURITY IN INDIA, 2008 BEIJING OLYMPICS, THAILAND

DESCRIPTION: Our client works in the corporate security division. He is primarily concerned with knowing about if his facilities or personnel are going to be endangered before it occurs. The company has had previous problems with Naxalite militants in India and Kurdish militant problems in Turkey. He is also involved in special events planning for all Coca-Cola sponsored activities, including the 2008 Olympics in Beijing.

BRIEFER: ANYA ALFANO

4) CLIENT: WGI (Washington Group International)

PRIMARY INTEREST: TERRORISM/UNREST ISSUES IN MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, LATIN AMERICA, CHINESE ECONOMY

DESCRIPTION: Client is part of the strategic planning team for WGI, which provides engineering, construction and management to business and governments around the world. Client would like early information about threats to project sites and personnel; threats to oil, gas, or mining projects are of special concern. Client would also like to know signs of general instability that could affect industry.

BRIEFER: JOE DEFEO

5) CLIENT: POKER

PRIMARY INTEREST: REACTIONS TO NUCLEAR ANNOUNCEMENTS AND DEVELOPMENTS

DESCRIPTION: Our primary contact is a contractor who works with the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) to monitor WMD developments.

BRIEFER: TODD HANNA

6) CLIENT: PEROT SYSTEMS

PRIMARY INTEREST: NEW POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR OUTSOURCING, SECURITY OF OUTSOURCING FACILITIES IN INDIA, PHILLIPENES, CHINA, MEXICO, ROMANIA, POLAND

DESCRIPTION: The primary contact is a senior leader of the company. He is most concerned with the security of personnel and the next opportunity for outsourcing. Company is an IT company that provides IT solutions globally. Client outsources a majority of their work.

BRIEFER: SARAH CAMPBELL

7) CLIENT: KNUCKLE

PRIMARY INTEREST: THREATS TO CATHOLICCHURCHES AND CATHOLIC PEOPLE/GROUPS

DESCRIPTION: The primary contact is head of the corporate security division. He is primarily interested in knowing the potential hotspots for Catholic officials traveling world wide and any areas that should be avoided due to potential threats. He is also interested in seeing wider local and regional trends of threats against the Catholic Church in order to conduct longer term security planning.

BRIEFER: ANYA ALFANO

8) CLIENT: LUCENT (Alcatel-Lucent)

PRIMARY INTEREST: IRAQ, BOLIVIA, SRI LANKA

DESCRIPTION: Primary contact is part of the corporate security department; tasked with monitoring business and personal security concerns in countries the company is considering doing business in. He is primarily concerned with problems that will impact personal security and any potential problems the company will encounter doing business there. Overall security trends are more important than individual incidents, except when an individual incident indicates a new trend. Client has recently completed a merger with Alcatel and contact is now responsible for three installations in Baghdad outside the IZ. Our contact frequently uses Stratfor as outside validation that the security advice given by the corporate security department is accurate and necessary.

BRIEFER: ANYA ALFANO

9) CLIENT: WEXFORD

PRIMARY INTEREST: SHIFTS IN THE ENERGY, AVIATION, AND SHIPPING INDUSTRIES

DESCRIPTION: Client is an investment management firm that manages hedge funds and investments for high net worth individuals. They invest heavily in the oil and energy industries, the aviation and shipping industries.

BRIEFER: SARAH CAMPBELL

10) CLIENT: ADM (Archer Daniels Midland)

PRIMARY INTEREST:COTE D’IVOIRE, BURKINA FASO, BRAZIL

DESCRIPTION: The primary contact is the 2nd in charge of the corporate security department, responsible for facilities and personnel security at the company’s operations in more than 70 countries. His team has most security problems covered, but they do not understand the political and security situation in Cote d’Ivoire or Burkina Faso, where the company does a large business. They also occasionally need assistance with personal security for individuals traveling around the world, including executive events overseas.

BRIEFER: ANYA ALFANO

11) CLIENT: CEDAR HILL CAPITAL

PRIMARY INTEREST: BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN INDIA AND CHINA

DESCRIPTION: Primary contacts are hedge fund managers for global long-short hedge funds. They have both short term and long term analysts who follow oil and the latest hot spots around the world.

BRIEFER: SARAH CAMPBELL

12) CLIENT:SUEZ ENERGY MARKETING NORTH AMERICA

PRIMARY INTEREST: LNG, GAZPROM, OIL MARKETS

DESCRIPTION: Primary contact is the CEO of the division of Suez Energy. Division is responsible for managing wholesale commodity price risks across their portfolio of merchant generation, LNG, and retail power contact assets. Principal activities of the division are merchant plant operations and wholesale gas and power - transacting in forward natural gas, power and oil markets to hedge the risks of fluctuating energy prices.

BRIEFER: SARAH CAMPBELL

13) CLIENT: GENERAL DYNAMICS

PRIMARY INTEREST:INDIA, UAE, SAUDI ARABIA – Security, business environment for American companies

DESCRIPTION: Primary contacts are in business development and security.

BRIEFER: TODD HANNA

14) CLIENT: ITT

PRIMARY INTEREST: Personnel security MIDEAST REGION/POLAND/BRAZIL

DESCRIPTION:

Primary contact is a Security/Special Services Manager/FSO facility services officer at Fort Wayne, Indiana. Primary concern is the personal security of ITT civilian contractors traveling overseas to the Mideast/parts of Eastern Europe/ and potentially South America. The monitoring service would serve as a filter to management of security and special services for the civilian contractors. Interested in any areas that should be avoided due to real and or potential threats of terrorism, insurrection, strikes, and violence. Also considering new potential business in South America.

* FYI-We are still waiting for more details to add to the monitoring tasks

SPECIFIC MONITORING TASKS:

  • SAUDI ARABIA- personnel security/terrorism/unrest
  • AFGHANISTAN-personnel security/terrorism/unrest -- doesn’t need a daily update on attacks; focus on larger trends of insurgency, what major shifts would indicate that certain areas are improving/worsening? Enhanced capabilities of Taliban/AQ?
  • POLAND-personnel security/terrorism/unrest

BRIEFER: Sarah Campbell