The Progress of Pupils from One Key Stage to Another in Examination and Test Outcomes 2007

AGENDA ITEM 1

BOROUGH OF POOLE

CHILDREN’S SERVICES OVERVIEW GROUP

10 MARCH 2008

REPORT OF HEAD OF CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE’S SERVCES: STRATEGY, QUALITY AND IMPROVEMENT

THE PROGRESS OF PUPILS FROM ONE KEY STAGE TO ANOTHER IN EXAMINATION AND TEST OUTCOMES 2007 FOR KEY STAGES 2, 3 AND 4

1.PURPOSE OF REPORT

1.1To report on the progress of children in their educational attainment from Key Stage to Key Stage as measured by examination and test outcomes

1.2To compare the rates of progress of some children, relative to others, in order to consider where progress is satisfactory or good and where improvements in progress are needed

2.DECISIONS REQUIRED

2.1To agree that:-

(a)educational progress is at least satisfactory between Key Stages 2 and 3 and between Key stages 3 and 4;

(b)educational progress needs improving between Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 2 especially in mathematics but also in English and for children from the 4 wards that face the greatest disadvantage relative to other wards;

(c)on this evidence, black and minority ethnic pupils in all key stages are making comparable or better progress and that pupils with learning difficulties or disabilities make less progress;

(d)the content of the report concerning vulnerable groups whose progress should be of interest to members especially, Children in care, Young carers, and pupils with learning difficulties and disabilities be noted; and

(e)the actions already agreed with government to address the need for improvement at Key Stage 2 be noted.

3BACKGROUND INFORMATION

3.1A full report on the progress of groups of pupils from one key stage to another in examination and test outcomes 2007 for key stages 2, 3 and 4 is attached with the detailed data for smaller groups of vulnerable children provided within appendices A-D

Introduction

This paper summarises analysis of progress made by pupils in Poole from the end of one key stage to the end of another. It includes analysis for different groups of pupils, including those who may be at risk of underachievement, with comparisons where available and significant. Attached are appendices that give more detailed tables.

Some comparative data is not available, for example, national data showing the progress of sub-groups. In Poole, data for some groups is so small that trends cannot be generalised as a pattern and individual pupils could be identified. In these cases, either the data is worked at a higher level with larger groups only or it is not included in this paper.

Progress during KS1 is not included because the national statistics between Foundation Stage and the end of KS1 have a low correlation and are regarded as being unreliable. This effect is increased when relatively small numbers are analysed as is the case for Poole. Progress for individual pupils is monitored by schools and the LA Early Years and Primary Strategy Teams.

Schools track pupils’ progress throughout the year and the key stage and data are increasingly being used to ensure support for individuals at the earliest sign that they are falling behind or are in need of extended provision. Targets are set by schools and the LA for pupils five terms ahead of the end of the key stage. The progress made in Poole by schools towards their targets in 2007 is the subject of a separate paper.

The government has introduced value added measurements that give a broad view of how progress compares across local authorities. Additionally, more detailed tables show how well pupils progressed from one stage to another.

1.PROGRESS FROM KS1 TO KS2

Overall Progress

Seven year old pupils in Poole achieve generally higher than national figures and their results are comparable to pupils in similar authorities (statistical neighbours). At the end of Key Stage 2, however, there has been for some time a challenge for Poole in ensuring that all pupils make at least the two levels of progress that are expected.

Progress figures between KS1 and KS2 show that:

• Increases made nationally and in the South West as a whole have not been made in Poole
• The percentage of pupils making two levels of progress was lower than in 2006 in Poole, while regional and national figures increased
• The percentage making 2 levels of progress in mathematics was the lowest since 2004

Progress in 2007 at KS2

Figures from Ofsted[1] (exclude Special Schools)

Overall conversion rates, and consequently CVA assessments, have fallen for this cohort of pupils, with 3 schools in English and 4 in maths falling below the floor targets of 65%. Schools in the Intensive Support Programme with the Primary Strategy Team made significant gains in pupil progress.

Progress for Specific Groups

Gender

Gender differences are within 5 to 6 percentage points for girls and boys compared, the main features being:

-Girls make more progress in English than boys; and boys make more progress in mathematics than girls.

-Progress in English is greater than progress in mathematics

-The progress gap between the two subjects is larger than the outcomes gap for Level 4+ in English and mathematics (English: 79%, mathematics 73% in 2007)

Currently there are no detailed national figures available for progress at KS2

Progress for pupils with Special Educational Needs (SEN)

There are three overall categories for pupils with special educational needs/learning difficulties or disabilities (LDD): pupils who are placed on the ‘School Action’ register who may have temporary need for support; pupils on ‘School Action Plus’, whose needs may be more intensive and longer term; and pupils who have a Statement of SEN. Summary progress figures for these as a single LDD/SEN group are below.

Gender differences are more marked for the LDD group than in Poole as a whole. The girl/boy difference for mathematics is of particular note, especially in comparison with English. More detail can be found in the Appendix.

Progress for Black and Minority Ethnic groups:

• No individual groups were over 25 pupils so will not be separately detailed
• Numbers were so small that comparisons with Poole as a whole are not valid or reliable (under 30 BME pupils in the year group)
• Black and minority ethnic pupils as a group achieved similar results to Poole as a whole in English
• In mathematics, the group achieved better than Poole as a whole.

Progress in Four Target Wards (see also Appendix):

• Progress in the four target wards was lower in both English and mathematics than for Poole as a whole.
• The strongest area of progress in English was for pupils with a starting point in KS1 of Level 2A, 92% of whom achieved at least 2 levels of progress, with 10 of these pupils achieving 3 levels of progress. 80% of pupils with Level 1 at KS1 achieved at least 2 levels, with 23 achieving 3 levels to gain Level 4 and 1 gaining Level 5.
• Of pupils leaving KS1 with 2C in English, 61% achieved a Level 4 to give two levels of progress. Most of these were girls, so a higher percentage of boys did not achieve the level. The weakest area of progress in English was for a very small group of pupils with learning difficulties who left KS1 only working towards a National Curriculum level – 43% progressed by 2 levels.
• Of pupils who left KS1 with Level 3 in English, 67% achieved 2 levels of progress, which suggests that insufficient progress was made by several more able pupils who should have achieved Level 5.
• In mathematics, the strongest area of progress was for pupils with a starting point of 2A, where 84% achieved 2 or more levels of progress, with 9 pupils out of 64 achieving more than two levels to a Level 5. Boys and girls from this group did equally well. The weakest groups were the small group of pupils with special needs, of whom only 40% made 2 levels of progress; and the pupils with prior attainment at 2C, of whom only 41% made two levels of progress and achieved a Level 4 or better. Also of concern was the fact that, of the pupils in the Level 2A and 2B prior attainment groups, over a quarter (26%) did not achieve Level 4 in mathematics at KS2, compared with one fifth (20%) in Poole as a whole.
• Of the pupils in the 4 Wards leaving KS1 with Level 3 in mathematics, 56% made 2 levels of progress to achieve Level 5 in KS2, compared with 71% for Poole as a whole.

These figures show the importance of strategies that focus particularly on supporting attainment and achievement in the 4 target wards.

Figures from Poole Dataset (includes Special Schools)

Children in Care (Children Looked After by the Local Authority)

There were 11 children in KS2 in Poole schools who were in care during 2007.

In Reading:

• 8 made 2 or more levels of progress
• 2 of these made 3 levels of progress (‘added value’)
• 3 made only 1 level of progress (2 of these had special educational needs)

In Writing figures were lower, with only 6 making 2 or more levels of progress.

In mathematics:

• 7 made 2 or more levels of progress
• 1 of these made 3 levels of progress
• All 7 of these attained Level 4 or better
• 4 out of the 11 made only 1 level of progress (all 4 had special educational needs)

Comparisons with patterns for the rest of Poole or with national figures are not valid with such a small number of pupils.

Young Carers in KS2 and KS3

National evidence that young carers are at risk of underachievement has led to schools specifically trying to ensure that they know if pupils are in this situation long term so that they can support these pupils’ progress.

77% of the known young carers reaching the end of KS2 achieved 2 levels of progress. This is 3 percentage points lower than the figures for the whole of Poole. However the figures are too small to be statistically reliable and it remains important to focus on the progress of the individual pupils themselves.

Value Added and Contextual Value Added

‘Value Added’ refers to pupils whose attainment is better than expected given their prior attainment (for example, a pupil with Level 2 at KS1 gaining a Level 5 at the end of KS2). ‘Contextual Value Added’ compares outcomes with expectations that are modified according to pupils’ contexts: for example, the expectation of a pupil with special needs may be lower than for a pupil without special needs. ‘Better than expected’ for a special needs pupil might be to make two levels of progress, which would be the normal expectation for a non-special needs pupil. Alternatively, a subgroup that generally makes good progress would be expected to do better than other groups. The national score is taken as 100 at KS2, with scores being higher or lower than this. Scores are based on the average points for the subject, with the national average points score being at the 100 point. The overall score for a local authority is based on aggregation of scores for individual pupils that have been adjusted for each pupil’s context.

Schools are each scored and the figures published in the DCSF National Performance Tables. They are also ranked according to national percentiles. At KS2, the school with the highest ranking for CVA progress was at the 13th percentile; and the lowest for CVA progress was at the 90th percentile. This gives an idea of the wide range in Poole.

Five out of sixteen schools had CVA scores of 100 or above. Four schools were in the top 40% nationally for CVA, with one of these being in the top quartile. Eight schools out of sixteen were judged as being underperforming on the basis of CVA scores which put them into the lower 40% nationally. Six schools are in the bottom quartile. (Source of data: Ofsted)

CVA KS2 Scores for Poole Schools

Poole ranked 64th nationally and was jointly the lowest when compared with statistical neighbours (i.e., authorities statistically similar to each other). The score was within the average range.

CVA KS2 Scores for Poole and Statistical Neighbours

2PROGRESS BETWEEN KEY STAGE 2 AND KEY STAGE 3

The national performance tables were published on 27 February 2008. Below is a discussion of the main data available at this time, but figures may change when validation is completed by DCSF.

Overall Progress

Generally pupils in Poole schools make satisfactory or good progress at KS3, being at the upper part of the average range. Percentages for pupils gaining Level 5+ in English, mathematics and science are higher than the national average. In 2006 the Value Added score for Poole was 100.7, where the national average is 100. Comparative data will be out shortly for 2007.

The new requirement to set targets for 2009 onwards to raise the proportion of pupils making two levels of progress in English and mathematics was announced by DCSF in 2007. This is a demanding requirement and is also affected by the ranges of the tests themselves – for example, English will only give a result for Levels 4-7; mathematics tests cover Levels 3-8.

Current unvalidated figures for 2007 show:

• Girls are more likely to make 2 levels of progress than boys in English and in mathematics.
• More pupils make 2 levels of progress in mathematics than English (but the range of tests is different, as noted above).

Pupils in 4 target wards

• Pupils in the 4 target wards are less likely to make 2 levels of progress in English and mathematics
• Girls make better progress than boys in English and mathematics
• As pupils in these wards have already made lower progress than generally in the previous key stage, this is compounding the poor progress.

Pupils with Learning Difficulties or Disabilities

• Pupils make much less progress than Poole pupils as a whole
• Gender differences are very small in percentages; however there are twice as many boys in these categories

Black and Minority Ethnic Groups

Numbers of pupils in these groups are very small and are therefore not readily comparable to other groups, as data for a few individual pupils will have a disproportionate effect.

• Pupils in this category are slightly more likely to make 2 levels of progress than Poole as a whole in English and much more likely in mathematics
• Boy/girl differences are smaller in English than for Poole as a whole, with girls 3 percentage points higher than boys
• In mathematics gender differences are similar to those for Poole as a whole

Children Looked After by the Local Authority

Data for students in KS3 in 2007 showed that 25% achieved 2 levels of progress in English and 21% did so in mathematics. The numbers were very small indeed (6) so no gender breakdown is provided.

Value Added at KS3

Contextual Value Added scores were published in the national performance tables on 27 February 2008. They work on the same basis as those for KS2.

Poole ranked 102nd nationally and was 9th when compared with statistical neighbours (i.e., authorities statistically similar to each other). The score was within the average range.

Comparison with Statistical Neighbours

3PROGRESS BETWEEN KEY STAGE 3 AND KEY STAGE 4