Residential Land Bulletin

Residential Land Bulletin

March Quarter 2011

Inside

Key land development indicators for metropolitan Melbourne by region 2

Estates’ sales activity in Growth Area municipalities6

Review of lots sold in growth area LGAs8

Overview

■There was a total of 42,904 lots submitted in subdivision plans to metropolitan municipalities in the last four quarters. This represents a 3% increase from the previous four quarters.

■The total number of lots released by metropolitan councils in the last four quarters was 28,887. This represents only a 2% decline from the previous four quarters. The number of lots released for the March quarter was significantly lower than the previous quarter. However seasonal fluctuations are quite common with quarterly release data and March quarterly data commonly shows lower numbers of lots released compared to other quarters.

■In the last four quarters there were 45,512 dwelling approvals occurring in Metropolitan Melbourne, a 21% increase from the previous four quarters.

Please note total figures published in this Bulletin for subdivisions, certifications and releases are an underestimate as data from Brimbank, Bayside and Stonnington were not available at the time of this quarterly publication.

7 quarter moving average

Lots in subdivision plans: The seven quarter moving average for lots in subdivision plans remained high at 10,621 lots and was only slightly down from the previous seven quarter moving average (down 1.4%) which was the highest on record since recording began in 1996.

Lots released: The seven quarter moving average for lots released was 7026, slightly down from the previous seven quarter moving average by 3.4 %.

Dwelling approvals: The seven quarter moving average for dwelling approvals continued to increase to 10,732, up 3.6 from the previous seven quarter moving average and the highest on record since recording began in 1996.

Figure 1: Key land development indicators for metropolitan Melbourne – 7 quarter moving average

Figure 2: Key land development indicators for metropolitan Melbourne by region – 7 quarter moving average

West

North

Inner

East

South

Residential lots in subdivision plans (see table 1)

■In the last four quarters there was a total of 42,904 lots in subdivision plans in Metropolitan Melbourne.

■The number of lots in subdivision plans for the March quarter decreased to 9,075, down 12% from the previous quarter. The last two quarters have shown declines coming down from an all time high in the September 2010 quarter. Please note however this figure is an underestimate as data from Brimbank, Bayside and Stonnington were not available at the time of this quarter’s publication.

■The municipalities that experienced the greatest percent increase from the previous quarter were Hume (up 123%), Moreland (up 121%) and YarraRanges (up 120%).

■The greatest percent declines from the previous quarter were the municipalities of Melbourne (down 76%), Manningham (down 72%) and Whitehorse (down 61%).

Residential lots released
(see table 3)

■There was a total of 28,887 lots released for Metropolitan Melbourne in the last four quarters.

■The number of lots released for the March quarter was 4,871. Please note however this figure is an underestimate as data from Brimbank, Bayside and Stonnington were not available at the time of this quarters publication. This represents a 45% decline from the previous quarter and is the lowest number of lots released for a quarter since March 2008. Note that data is subject to seasonal fluctuations which is why the seven quarterly moving average more accurately reflects trends.

■The municipalities that experienced the greatest percent increase from the previous quarter were MooneeValley (up 917%), HobsonsBay (up 82%) and Melton (down 22%). Across the board most municipalities declined in numbers of lots released for the March 2011 quarter. The proportion of lots released from Growth Area Municipalities was 55% and the proportion of lots released from established areas was 45%

Dwelling approvals
(see table 4)

■In the last four quarters there was a total of 45,512 dwelling approvals. Dwelling approvals for the March 2011 quarter dropped to 10,524, a decline of 13 percent from the previous quarter coming down off the high levels of dwelling approvals in the September and December 2010 quarters.

■Dwelling approvals have shown a strong increase in the Inner municipalities in the calendar year of 2010 and account for 28% of the total dwelling approvals for Metropolitan Melbourne for the March 2011 quarter. Both the Western and Southern Municipalities each had 22% of total dwelling approvals. The Northern municipalities had 16% and the Eastern 12%.

■Although dwelling approvals were down overall for the March 2011 quarter the Municipalities that showed the strongest increases were Port Phillip (up 975%), YarraRanges (up 36%) and MorningtonPeninsula (up 25%).

■The strongest declines in dwelling approvals from the previous quarter were Bayside (down 62%), Manningham (down 61%) and Moreland (down 52%).

Table 1: Residential lots in subdivision plans submitted to councils

Melbourne631 1,031 310 1,020240

Port Phillip194 8249987163

Yarra86 326 540122174

Inner911 1,439 1,349 1,229577

Brimbank224 124 193222N/A

Hobsons Bay115 153 1399083

Maribyrnong202 84170302267

Melton647 770 4469001,157

Moonee Valley182 423 128149182

Wyndham1,378 1,188 1,012 878666

West2,748 2,742 2,088 2,5412,355

BaysideN/A N/A N/AN/AN/A

Cardinia745 424 852506421

Casey948 838 1,253 1,126730

Frankston191 412 217N/A169

Glen Eira185 245 225271152

Greater Dandenong482670248198111

Kingston198 199 271215124

Mornington Peninsula280209517309275

South3,029 2,997 3,583 2,6251,982

Banyule63 131 1228364

Darebin259 102 370192226

Hume813 640 681415927

Moreland496 413 559277611

Nillumbik52 44475743

Whittlesea1,312 1,625 1,344 1,191820

North2,995 2,955 3,123 2,2152,691

Boroondara82 156 19514582

Knox57 113 30111558

Manningham104 7120424668

Maroondah12 29694279150

Monash205 279 133N/A320

Stonnington187 214 381355N/A

Whitehorse453 N/A 218279109

Yarra Ranges180 333 225311683

East1,280 1,462 1,751 1,7301,470

Growth area
municipalities5,843 5,485 5,588 5,0164,721

Established
municipalities5,120 6,110 6,306 5,3244,354

TOTAL MELBOURNE 10,96311,59511,89410,3409,075

Source: Spatial Information and Research Branch Survey of Councils

N/A: Not Available

The data for 2008-09 for Stonnington has been revised since the June 2009 edition

Note: Growth area municipalities highlighted

Table 2: Certification of residential lots

Melbourne2 00180

Port Phillip19 20332117

Yarra33 869830545

Inner54 106 13134462

Brimbank113 44490275N/A

Hobsons Bay105 1189776100

Maribyrnong208 91189294128

Melton494 311 383250723

Moonee Valley149 40993105159

Wyndham1,016 1,755 1,147 1,037593

West2,085 3,128 1,999 2,0371,703

BaysideN/A N/A N/AN/AN/A

Cardinia532 585 732563321

Casey236 996 518816695

Frankston351 315 354N/A238

Glen Eira134 160 207191119

Greater Dandenong166187199313124

Kingston144 14790211163

Mornington Peninsula157331304301283

South1,720 2,721 2,404 2,3951,943

Banyule31 57498354

Darebin35 9940

Hume68 517 377643551

Moreland191 200 550334173

Nillumbik25 673210148

Whittlesea1,281 1,327 971 1,5741,244

North1,631 2,177 1,988 2,7392,070

Boroondara60 6017165660

Knox72 9813516159

Manningham66 1167913888

Maroondah10 627517625

Monash235 209 166N/A99

Stonnington55 88117143N/A

Whitehorse41 N/A 225205149

Yarra Ranges199 18643382452

East738 819 1,011 1,861932

Growth area
municipalities3,627 5,491 4,128 4,8834,127

Established
municipalities2,601 3,460 3,405 4,4932,583

TOTAL MELBOURNE6,2288,9517,5339,3766,710

Source: Spatial Information and Research Branch Survey of Councils

N/A: Not Available

The data for 2008-09 for Stonnington has been revised since the June 2009 edition

Note: Growth area municipalities highlighted

Table 3: Residential lots released

Melbourne168 35105

Port Phillip15 26281917

Yarra42 1355332955

Inner225 1968234877

Brimbank43 1245941N/A

Hobsons Bay43 53453462

Maribyrnong206 85168272129

Melton458 528 450375456

Moonee Valley66 63425661

Wyndham1,132 1,758 1,370 1,732626

West1,948 2,611 2,517 2,4601,334

BaysideN/A N/A N/AN/AN/A

Cardinia317 658 268368321

Casey556 696 292797591

Frankston200 364 281N/A236

Glen Eira158 181 218219160

Greater Dandenong105230199369176

Kingston142 149 100173157

Mornington Peninsula189286313390194

South1,667 2,564 1,671 2,3161,835

Banyule73 55528539

Darebin21 40116216

Hume90 629 328393192

Moreland198 220 405382167

Nillumbik31 26233524

Whittlesea782 1,437 673 1,290473

North1,195 2,407 1,597 2,206901

Boroondara96 1197961196

Knox82 7614410253

Manningham51 7978106100

Maroondah2 617130105

Monash118 201 193N/A135

Stonnington278 8379182N/A

Whitehorse83 N/A 1218678

Yarra Ranges109 106 108335157

East819 670 8191,552724

Growth area
municipalities3,335 5,706 3,381 4,9552,659

Established
municipalities2,519 2,742 3,305 3,9272,212

TOTAL MELBOURNE5,8548,4486,6868,8824,871

Source: Spatial Information and Research Branch Survey of Councils

Note: Information for Wydham & Brimbank sourced from VICMAP Property

N/A: Not Available

Note: Growth area municipalities highlighted

Table 4: Dwelling approvals

Melbourne251 435 9632,1601,445

Port Phillip146 263561121,204

Yarra220 288 572497268

Inner617 986 1,591 2,7692,917

Brimbank337 321 267198214

Hobsons Bay81 176 150124147

Maribyrnong112 278 199207108

Melton517 691 512503495

Moonee Valley171 243 712165199

Wyndham1,445 1,430 1,390 1,3311,149

West2,663 3,139 3,230 2,5282,312

Bayside129 155 13624392

Cardinia442 423 503490460

Casey719 713 675490483

Frankston251 312 507295246

Glen Eira191 218 202191223

Greater Dandenong203224155255217

Kingston163 283 310251151

Mornington Peninsula288251442313392

South2,386 2,579 2,930 2,5282,264

Banyule117 124 1329672

Darebin357 293 231200218

Hume362 425 516459340

Moreland363 304 292404194

Nillumbik40 62547144

Whittlesea995 765 1,091958865

North2,234 1,973 2,316 2,1881,733

Boroondara202 347 161182138

Knox109 112 172123116

Manningham102 195 33421383

Maroondah74 18086122111

Monash331 212 288557248

Stonnington601 112 901214103

Whitehorse227 142 267596337

Yarra Ranges176 386 210119162

East1,822 1,686 2,419 2,1261,298

Growth area
municipalities4,480 4,447 4,687 4,2313,792

Established
municipalities5,242 5,916 7,799 7,9086,732

TOTAL MELBOURNE9,72210,36312,48612,13910,524

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics: Special order 8731.0

Note: Growth area municipalities highlighted

Estates’ sales activity in Growth Area municipalities

Table 5: Residential lots released and average lot size for estates in Growth Area municipalities, reported by councils in the March 2011 quarter

Source: Spatial Analysis and Research Branch Survey of Councils

Figure 4: Average lot size (m2) in Growth Area LGAs

Note: Data up to December quarter 2010 only as March 2011 is incomplete and data is subject to revision. Data includes sales within and outside estates

Figure 5: Number of lots sold in Growth Area LGAs

Note: Data up to September quarter 2010 only as December 2010 is incomplete and data is subject to revision. Data includes sales within and outside estates. Please see explanation in body of main text.

Figure 6: Median Vacant Lot Price in Growth Area LGAs

Note: Data up to December quarter 2010 only as March 2011 is incomplete and data is subject to revision. Data includes sales within and outside estates

Source: Valuer-General

Figure 7: Percentage of lots sold in Growth Area estates

Note: December quarter based on October and November data only as aggregates not available for the month of December

Source: Oliver Hume Research

Review of lots sold in growth area LGAs

Average lot size (m2) in growth area LGAs (see figure 4)

The data has been revised and only includes vacant lots greater than 100m2 and less than 1500m2. The long term trend of this data shows that since September 2001 there has been a gradual decline in average lot sizes for growth areas, with high variation between quarters. In the 2010 December quarter all average lot sizes for sale in growth areas increased from the previous quarter with the highest average increase in Hume (up 16%) and smallest increase in Casey (up 2.3%)

Number of lots sold in growth area LGAs (see figure 5)

Data only available up to September 2010 quarter as December 2010 quarter data is incomplete. There can be a significant lag in the number of lots reportedly sold for each quarter as lot sales may be subject to conditions such as completion of a construction of a dwelling or provision of utilities. Since the March 2010 quarter the subsequent quarters seem to show an overall decline in the number of lots sold for each growth area LGA. Whittlesea shows greatest percent decline in the September quarter from the previous quarter (down 39%). Melton shows the smallest decline in the September quarter from the previous quarter (down 9%).

Price of vacant lots in growth area LGAs (see figure 6)

The average price for vacant lots in growth area LGAs continued to increase for the December 2010 quarter in all growth areas. Casey continued to have the highest average vacant lot prices with $240,000 whilst Cardinia had the lowest with $174,475, just slightly below Melton at $175,000.

The greatest percent increase in the December 2010 quarter from the previous quarter occurred in Melton (up 16%) whilst the lowest increase occurred in Cardinia (up just 4%).

Percentage of lots sold in growth area estates (see figure 7)

Whittlesea continues to contain the greatest proportion of lots sold out of the growth area municipalities at 32% for the March quarter. Melton has increased the proportion of lots sold from the previous quarter by 133%. Both Wyndham and Casey have decreased in percentage of sales slightly from the previous quarter whilst Cardinia has remained constant for the March 2011 quarter.

Glossary

Residential lots are parcels of land intended for housing development. In fringe areas there would generally (but not in all cases) be one dwelling built on each lot. In established areas residential lots may be parcels of land created by subdividing larger properties or redeveloping land from other uses, often for multi-purpose construction. While technically still defined as residential lots, the latter may more usefully be considered as dwelling units. Only metropolitan Melbourne is included.

Residential lots in subdivision plans: Councils provide the number of residential lots which were submitted to them in subdivision plans where a planning permit is required for subdivision.

Water supply conditions accepted for residential lots: Water supply authorities provide the number of formal offers made by these authorities and accepted by land owners for the provision of water supply to residential lots in plans.

Certification of residential lots: Councils provide the number of residential lots for which certification has been given. Certification is given when a plan complies with the conditions of the planning permit or planning scheme provisions.

Residential lots released: Councils provide the number of lots which have been completed to the satisfaction of the Council and have been issued with a Statement of Compliance. At this point the subdivision requirements have been satisfied for roadworks, drainage, water supply and any other construction.

Dwelling approvals: The Australian Bureau of Statistics provide the number of “houses” and “other residential” dwellings approved for each municipality.

Note: Totals in Tables 1–4 exclude municipalities where data was not available.

Published by Spatial Analysis and Research, a branch in the Department of Planning and Community Development

1 Spring Street Melbourne
Victoria 3000

Telephone (03) 9208 3000

July 2011

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