Johannesburg, South Africa

Johannesburg, South Africa

City Security Assessment

Country

The Republic of South Africa is located on the southern tip of Africa. The country

City

Johannesburg is the provincial capital of South Africa’s Gauteng province. The city center is one of the most densely-populated areas in the world with more than 3.5 million people, though the greater metropolitan area is home to nearly 8 million people. The city is the financial hub of South Africa, as it is the primary point for diamond, gold and platinum trade in South Africa.

Terrorism

July 27 2004, South African authorities announce that Al-Qaeda militants have illegally obtained a large number of South African passports, enabling operatives to travel to many African countries and Britain without visas. It is believed that the passports came from crime syndicates operating within the passport office.

PAGAD:

Johannesburg has not been the site of any transnational terrorist activity in the past. However, there are indications that militants linked to the larger al-Qaeda movement receive some logistical and financial support within the city, in addition to using the city as a transit point to and from other locations in the world.

In August 2004, U.S. and Pakistani law enforcement officials confirmed the arrest of two South African men in Pakistan with al Qaeda operative Ahmad Khalfan Ghailani—a Tanzanian man wanted in connection with the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania. According to U.S. law enforcement officials, the men were thought to be planning attacks against tourist sites in Johannesburg. While there are a large number of official governmental targets in the city, including South African government institutions and consulates that represent western governments, the indication of “tourist targets” indicates militants were likely attempting to attack a softer target, such a hotel or restaurant frequented by western visitors.

Currently, there is no indication that Islamist militants are active or planning attacks in Johannesburg, though the possibility of an attack cannot be entirely ruled out.

Nevertheless, the threat of terrorism in Johannesburg remains low.

Crime

The high level of both violent and non-violent crime in Johannesburg ranks it as one of the most dangerous cities in the world. Crime is the most critical problem a western traveler will face in the city and must be prepared to deal with. Furthermore, the violent and largely unpredictable nature of crime in the city means that even if travelers take all the best precautions to avoid becoming victimized, they may still fall victim to the city’s criminal problem. Crime in Johannesburg can be both violent and non-violent, though the majority of crime against foreigners tends to center around the attainment of objects of high physical value or passports. It is important to understand that westerners are very specifically targeted for crime in Johannesburg and such crime often becomes very violent, sometimes deadly.

While a good portion of crime in Johannesburg begins as a non-violent problem, criminals are very unpredictable and may quickly and unpredictably escalate situations into violent confrontations. The majority of travelers’ deaths in Johannesburg have been attributed to criminals misinterpreting the actions of their victims and killing them when overreacting to these actions. As a result, if a foreigner becomes victimized by non-violent crime, it is important to follow the instructions given by the attackers as calmly as possible to avoid aggravating the situation. If caught in a violent confrontation, one should attempt to flee, as the attacker has already shown they are intent on causing physical harm. In most incidences where the victim complies with the attacker’s demands, all parties escape unharmed.

Travelers should take all common sense precautions to avoid being victimized. Specifically, westerners should make every effort not to identify themselves as foreigners, not to have any outward appearance of wealth, and to be in the company of a group of individuals at all times possible. Security professionals tell Stratfor it is important to remember that there is no area of Johannesburg that is safe from crime. The closest thing to a “safe” part of Johannesburg is the northern suburbs. Travelers are advised not to wander outside of the northern suburbs of the city if at all possible, either to go into the city, or outside the city and into the townships—one official told Stratfor leaving the northern suburbs is “asking to become a statistic”. Travelers also should make every effort to avoid the Hillbrow and Bramfontein districts, as numerous western travelers have been victimized in the area. Likewise, security officials say the central business district of Johannesburg should be avoided if there is not very specific and reputable business to be done in the area, though most businesses even suggest to their western contacts that meetings in the northern suburbs are preferable. The vast majority of all legitimate business is located in the northern suburbs and will not require any travel into the district. Tourists should also be aware that tours claiming to take travelers into downtown areas of Johannesburg to tour “the heart of the city” are likelybeing led into criminal enterprises at work.

There is a particularly acute threat while transiting through the city using nearly all forms of transportation.. Johannesburg International Airport is the largest airport in South Africa and accommodates a large number of international flights. As such, it is also a very common place for criminals to acquire their targets for both small and large scale theft. There are almost daily reports of both pick-pocketing and bag-snatching inside the airport against foreigners. In late 2005, a favorite target of criminals at the airport was laptop bags. In addition, special care should be taken when leaving the airport due to a number of schemes involving thieves imitating airport-approved porters, who then boarded taxis of affiliated criminals to steal the baggage. There are also several reports of valuables being stolen from checked luggage at the airport. Similar problems have been experienced in both the central bus depot—where groups of Americans have been targeted for armed robbery on at least four occasions in the last six months of 2005--Park Station, the city’s main metrorail station in the north of town, and metro rail’s Jeppe Station in the eastern part of the city’s downtown. I would avoid public transport altogether, esp. metro trains and definitely avoid the local trains that run out to the suburbs and townships.

In addition to more public forms of transportation, special care must be taken when riding in a car, either alone or with other passengers. Both carjackings and vehicle smash-and-grabs are common in Johannesburg, though the majority of car theft occurs during the nighttime hours. Theft from unoccupied cars occurs at all time of the day and night and often occurs regardless of whether the car is parked in a “secure” parking lot. Travelers should be certain not to leave any valuables in sight in a vehicle, whether they plan to occupy the vehicle or not. It may be advisable while driving to do as the locals do late at night when the streets are empty: slow down at red lights, check both ways, and proceed if the way is clear. Solitary cars sitting at red lights in downtown Jo’burg are prime targets

Financial crimes have risen significantly since October 2005, including both petty theft from individuals while at or leaving ATM machines, as well as white collar crimes. The most common scams in 2005 have been the installation of ATM skimming devices on the top of legitimate ATM machines, and the theft of credit card information during legitimate transactions in order to conduct later fraudulent transactions. Special attention should be paid to all ATM machines, watching for the possibility that additional equipment has been installed on the machine. Though it is often difficult to tell that a device has been attached to the machine, any unusual looking equipment should be avoided. Additionally, all travelers should carefully monitor their bank and credit card statements for several months after leaving the country to protect against fraudulent transactions. In at least one case, fraudulent charges traced to an address in Johannesburg charged against an American bank account did not appear for three months after the traveler had returned to the U.S..

The threat of crime in Johannesburg is critical.

Political Instability

The African National Congress Party holds a controlling stake in the South African government, with

March 1 local elections, Zuma trial.

General problems with protesting, and electoral events preceeding the voting

The threat of political instability in Johannesburg is High.

War and Insurgency

South Africa currently maintains good relations with all of its neighbors, leaving little chance of some type of border conflict or war. There are no known insurgent groups operating in the country.(Africaner Resistance Movement still around, but weak. Responsible for intermittent violence and one or two bombings in the last 3 years, but all in the country (Free State) and all directed against blacks,)

The one potential source of foreign instability in Johannesburg is the influx of foreign refugees attempting to escape the deteriorating economic and political situation in Zimbabwe. It is estimated that nearly 1,000 Zimbabweans are entering South Africa through the Beitbridge border crossing on a weekly basis. Humanitarian groups say a majority of the migrants are heading immediately into the Gauteng province in search of refuge with other Zimbabweans who settled there, including in the slums of Johannesburg. While there have been no problems in Johannesburg to date, refugee camps south of Pretoria have experienced several weeks of rioting due to the influx of refugees. Because similar problems are experienced in the more dense areas of Johannesburg, it is possible that similar problems could soon come to the city. Travelers to the city should be aware that such situations are possible and should be careful to avoid neighborhoods and townships where such problems are most likely occur.

The threat of war and insurgency in Johannesburg is low.

Miscellaneous Threats

Local residents Stratfor spoke with indicate the easiest and generally safest way to travel between Johannesburg and Pretoria by car is using the Ben Schoeman Highway.

Medical

The threat of miscellaneous problems in Pretoria is high.

1. Terrorism threat levels. Low: No known credible threat. Medium: Potential but unsubstantiated threats by capable indigenous or transnational actors. High: Demonstrable history and

continued potential for militant attacks against generalized targets. Foreigners and/or foreign

facilities are not specifically targeted. Critical: Demonstrable history and continued likelihood

of militant attacks. Foreigners and/or foreign facilities are specifically targeted.

1. Crime threat levels. Low: Relatively low crime rate, mainly property or petty crime. Medium:

Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners,

low potential for violence. High: Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners, probability of violence and moderate risk of physical crime. Critical: Extensive criminal activity targeting foreigners with a high possibility of physical crime, including violence and kidnapping; heavily armed criminal elements abundant.

1. War and Insurgency threat levels. Low: No or relatively low threat of violent insurgency. Medium: Nearby insurgency with the potential of affecting city, region, country or transportation network. High: Insurgency within the city, region or country but with little direct effect on foreigners. Critical: Insurgency within the city, region or country directly threatening foreigners.

1. Political Instability threat levels. Low: No or minimal visible activity directed against the government. Medium: Sporadic street demonstrations, largely peaceful. High: Routine large-scale demonstrations, often affecting traffic and having the potential for violence. Critical: Endemic strikes, protests and street demonstrations almost always affecting traffic with a high probability of associated violence.

1. Miscellaneous threat levels. Low: Little or no known threats posed by disease, weather, natural disasters, transportation hazards or other dangers. Medium: Moderate level of risk posed by some or all of these threats. High: Considerable danger posed by some or all of these threats. Critical: Extremely high level of danger posed by some or all of these threats.