ANALYSIS OF
INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS’ UNIVERSITY APPLICATIONS
2011
Peter Mason
August2011
Index
Sections1 / Introduction to the 2011 survey and report
2 / Executive summary
3 / Main findings
4 / Analysis of Universities
5 / Analysis of courses
6 / Analysis of the most popular subject areas at the most popular universities, including Oxbridge
7 / A more detailed analysis of the five most popular main subject areas
8 / A close look at some high profile subject areas
9 / Offers
10 / Final remarks
Tables: note, tables take their designation from the section of the Reportin which they appear
Table 3 / Headline data
Table 4a / Top 25 universities by number of applications with offer rates
Table 4b / Comparison of national application number rankings with ISC rankings
Table 4c / Most popular universities by region
Table 4d / Proportion of applications to Scottish universities
Table 4e / Comparison of applications to Scotland from Scottish schools and other UK regions
Table 5a / Analysis of courses by UCAS/JACS main subject area
Table 5b / Rank order of main subject areas by number of applications
Table 6 / Analysis of top 5 main subject areas by university
Table 7a / Main Subject Area L:Social Studies
Table 7b / Main Subject Area N:Business & Administrative Studies
Table 7c / Main Subject Area V:Historical and Philosophical studies
Table 7d / Main Subject Area C:Biological Sciences
Table 7e / Main Subject Area Q:Linguistics, Classics and related subjects
Table 8a / Medical applications and offer rates ranked by university
Table 8b / Profile of Medicine offers per applicant
Table 8c / Dentistry applications and offer rates ranked by university
Table 8d / Profile of Dentistry offers per applicant
Table 8e / Veterinary Medicine (Science) applications and offer rates
Table 8f / Profile of Veterinary Medicine (Science) offers per applicant
Table 8g / Group R
Table 8h / Group T
Table 8i / Applications and offers for Mathematics (G100 – G190)
Table 8j / Applications and offers for Biology (C100 – C190)
Table 8k / Applications and offers for Chemistry (F100 – F190)
Table 8l / Applications and offers for Physics (F300 – F390)
Table 9a / Universities making A* offers
Table 9b / A closer look at selected applications
1.Introduction to the 2011 Report
This Reportpresents an analysis of 2011 UCAS application data from a survey carried out in July 2011 among schools in four of the independent schools’ associations: GSA, HMC, ISA and SHMIS which are the constituent heads’ association members of the Independent Schools’ Council (ISC). The survey was commissioned by the schools’ Universities Sub-Committee.
246 schools respondedwith data from their final applicant status reports obtained from UCAS (or the school’s self-generated equivalent data) for the 2011 round of university applications.All data in all schools’ returns wereused resulting in 107,242 applications (choices) from 22163 applicantsbeing analysed.All identities of schools and students have been removed; applicants who had completely withdrawn from UCAS were not included in the analysis.
The terminology used in the Report is that used by UCAS (see Appendix 1). In summary this means that:
an applicantapplies via UCAS for a place at university. S/he may make up to five[1]applications(choices) and may receive offers which can be either conditional on gaining specified results or unconditional. The applicant responds by confirming which offer(s), if any, s/he wishes to accept, either as firm acceptance or as insurance.
The survey data were issued before examination results were known and did not, therefore, provide any information about accepted applicants (accepts) which UCAS defines as:successful applicants, i.e. those that met the requirements of their offers.
It is hoped that thisReport will be useful at both an individual school level by informing staff and students about aspects of university applications, and also provide the Associations with reliable data from which to comment on national issues related to university entrance.
Caveats: it must be stressed that these data and subsequent analysis represent one year only. Nevertheless,with such a large sample it can be assumed, with reasonable confidence, that the sample was representative of ISC schools’ UCAS applications as a whole. However, even with such a large population of applicants and applications, caution should be exercised when drawing too definite conclusions from more detailed analyses where the large overall sample becomes a much smaller population, for example the analysis of applications to an individual course at a specific university. Caution must also be exercised in attempting to extrapolatefrom historic data and analysis to future outcomes. The pattern in last year’s applications does not guarantee next year’s.
The Report presents its analyses in tables with limited commentary where relevant. The data speak for themselves and need minimal further explanation.
The termpost-qualification is used in a general sense in the Report to mean any candidate who has completed their main course of study, whether A-level, Scottish Highers, Pre-U or IB, and is applying, or re-applying having received their results thus gaining an unconditional offer. The term university is used rather than HEI.
2.Executive summary
Data from UCAS applicant status reports from 246 ISC schools’ 2011 UCAS applications were analysed. From these reports 107,242 applications from 22,163 applicants were available for analysis. This high return is thought to represent over50% of the total applicants and applications made from ISC schools in 2011 and should therefore be a reliable guide to applications made by students in ISC schools as a whole.
The average number of applicants per school was 90, slightly higher than in 2010, ranging from 5 in the smallest to 331 in the largest, including post A-level applicants whose applications were estimated to represent around 18% of the total, the same as in 2010.. Deferred entry applications represented 6.6% of the total, a significant drop on 2010 (10.7%) which is unsurprising given the change in university funding for 2012.
The offer rate, defined as the percentage of applications receiving an offer[2] was 72.0% across all courses, slightly greater than in 2010 (71.7%).
The percentage of applicants who received at least 1 offer was 97.0% (2010: 96.7%). The average number of offers per applicant was 3.4, again, slightly higher than in 2010 (3.3). Given the increased competition for places in 2011 this is noteworthy.
The top 25 universities by number of applications all received well over 1,000 applications, the highest, Bristol, receiving marginally over5,000. Of these 25, 18 were Russell Group and 6 were 94 Group[3] universities. Almost 70% of all applications were to Sutton Trust Top 30[4] universities.
Offer rates from the top 25 ranged from 28.4% at the lowest (Oxford University) to 88.0% at the highest (Loughborough University). Five of the top ten most popular universities were also in the top ten most popular universities nationally.
As in 2010,Oxford (2,850) received more applications than Cambridge (2,256) and its offer rate was again lower (28.4% compared with Cambridge 35.1%). Over 94% of schools in the survey had at least one Oxbridge applicant; the average number per school was 21.
Applications to popular universities differed across the regions of the UK. The most popular universities: Bristol, Leeds, Nottingham, Durham, Manchester appeared in the top 10 choices across all regions other than Scotland where the top 10 universities were all Scottish Universities. Of these,only two (Edinburgh and St Andrews) had a greater proportion of applicants from elsewhere in the UK than from Scotland. Whilst the offer rate from Edinburgh was slightly higher for students from schools in Scotland, the reverse was true for St Andrews. In view of the high profile of country of residence and fees payable a more detailed study was done on applications to Scottish universities.
Applications for 4,413 different courses (as defined by course code) were identified at 225 different universities. The most popular subject areas were within UCAS/JACS code L: Social Studies gained 16,310 applications, representing 15.2% of the whole (2010, 15.4%). This was followed by Business & Administrative Studies (code N: 11,540 applications, 10.8%); Historical and Philosophical Studies (code V: 10,776 applications, 10.0%); Biological Sciences (code C: 10,087 applications, 9.4%) and Linguistics, Classics and related subjects (code Q: 7,108 applications, 6.6%). Medicine and Dentistry (code A) registered 6,905 applications, 6.4% of the whole. The profile of these most popular courses is largely mirrored in applications to the most popular universities.
Economics(UCAS code L1XX) dominated the applications within the Social Studies subject area accounting for 28.5% of all applications within code L. Management Studies dominated applications within main subject area code N. In main subject area code V, History by Period accounted for almost half(44.3%) of the applications whilst in main subject area code C Psychology (34.2%) was the most popular. English Studies easily dominated code Q with 52.6% of all applications in this subject area.
A more detailed analysis of applications for Medicine showed that Bristol was the most popular (441 applications), followed by Leeds (423), King’s London (359), Birmingham, (340) and Newcastle (315). The overall offer rate was 30.2% (2010: 29.8%) varying between57% (Birmingham) to 14% (Oxford). 63.3% of the 1,598 applicants for Medicine received at least one offer with a small number (37, 2.3%) receiving 4 offers.
Smaller numbers applied for Dentistry and Veterinary Medicine (Science) where the offer rates were 28.0% and 25.9% respectively. The percentage of applicants who received at least one offer for these courses was 56.2% (Dentistry) and 60.3% (Veterinary Medicine (Science)).
Uptake of Modern Languages isof continuingnational interest. Subject group R (European Languages, Literature and related subjects) attracted 4,744 applications largely (30.8%) a combination of two subjects within this domain. However, almost 1900 applications included one of these languages as a subsidiary in combination with a subject from another subject area.
Subject group T:Eastern, Asiatic, African, American and Australasian Languages, Literature and related subjects proved less popular being dominated by American Studies and combinations within which a group T language was a subsidiary. Chinese Studies, as a single defined subject, attracted 93 applications.
Applications for the Physics Sciences (Group F) increased compared with 2010 rising from 5.8% to 6.3% of the whole. Large numbers of schools had applicants for Mathematics and the Sciences (Biology, Chemistry and Physics) with offer rates remaininghigh even at very competitive universities.
Analysing the actual offers made by universities to applicants proved less easy because of the many ways in which offers are denoted by UCAS. However, it was possible to identify those offers that required, for the second year, one or more A* grades at A-level. In 2010 only Cambridge University included A* within its offers. This year 13 universities did so. In 2010 14 of the 405 conditional offers at Cambridge required 2 A* grades with Maths (5) and Engineering (3) accounting for over half; this year 41 Cambridge offers required 2A* grades covering 11 subjects. Five Cambridge offers required 3 A* grades for entry to courses in Natural Sciences (1), Engineering (3) and Economics (1). Imperial College, London also appeared to increase its grade requirements in 2011 with 17 offers that included two A* grades.
Listing of actual IB grades was inconsistent. Where they could be identified they followed the similar patter to the A star grade requirements above. For example, Cambridge offers ranged from 39 points to 44 points, Imperial College: 39 to 40 points and offers for Medicine ranged from 32 points (St George’s) to 41 points (Cambridge).
In conclusion, this survey and subsequent analysis has provided detailed information about the pattern of university applications from students in ISC schools in 2011, a pivotal year in university admissions given the change in student fees from 2012. It shows applicants from the sector being ambitious and very successful in their choice of course and university. Given the changes to university funding in England from 2012 it will be useful to repeat this survey and analysis over each of the next 2 years, 2012 and 2013, to monitor any changes in applicant or university behaviour.
3.Main findings
Table 3: Headline data and comparison with 2010
2010 / 2011Applicants
Number of applicants in the study / 17264 / 22163
Average number of applicants per school / 89 / 90
Range of applicant numbers in the schools
Largest / 337 / 331
Smallest / 10 / 5
Number of post-qualifications applicants (best estimate) / 3046 / 4040
Percentage of post-qualification applicants / 18% / 18%
Applications (choices)
Number of applications in the study / 82744 / 107242
Average number of applications per applicant / 4.8 / 4.8
Number of deferred applications for 2012 (2011) entry / 8858 / 7059
Percentage of deferred applications / 10.7% / 6.6%
Offers
Number of applicationsresulting in an offer / 57486 / 74754
Percentage of applications resulting in an offer (the offer rate) / 71.7% / 72.0%
Number of applicantsgaining at least one offer / 16693 / 21204
Percentage of applicants gaining at least one offer / 96.7% / 97.0%
Average number of offers per applicant / 3.3 / 3.4
Numbers of post -qualification (PQ) applicants and their applications were identified from those who had received unconditional offers. This method provides a best estimate only; some PQ applicants may have been given offers conditional on achieving certain re-take grades and would not be identifiable from the data. By contrast those applying for deferred entry are identified with accuracy from the data.
Both the average number of applicants (90) and the range (the smallest was 5, the largest 331 of which 94 were PQ) suggest that the survey data covered a wide variety of ISC schools.
Analysis of Universities
The universities to which applicants applied were analysed according to their University Code. From the 107,242 applications, 225 different universities received at least one application. This shows the range of institution that students in ISC schools considered. The top 25 universities, ranked by application numbers are shown below together with the offer rate.
Table 4a:Top 25 universities by number of applications, with offer rates
Russell (R) or 94 Groups (94) / University / Total Applications / Rank / Offers / Offer rateR / University of Bristol / 5273 / 1 / 2292 / 44.9%
R / University of Leeds / 4886 / 2 / 3736 / 77.6%
R / The University of Nottingham / 4698 / 3 / 3664 / 79.5%
94 / Durham University / 4349 / 4 / 2461 / 57.1%
R / The University of Manchester / 4247 / 5 / 3470 / 84.3%
94 / University of Exeter / 3830 / 6 / 3149 / 83.0%
R / The University of Birmingham / 3568 / 7 / 2986 / 85.2%
R / University College, London / 3354 / 8 / 1545 / 47.6%
R / The University of Edinburgh / 3297 / 9 / 1574 / 49.3%
R / Newcastle University / 3164 / 10 / 2454 / 78.9%
R / The University of Warwick / 2895 / 11 / 2085 / 73.8%
R / Oxford University / 2827 / 12 / 794 / 28.3%
R / King's College London / 2402 / 13 / 1315 / 58.1%
R / University of Southampton / 2385 / 14 / 1937 / 84.7%
R / University of Cambridge / 2235 / 15 / 780 / 35.1%
R / The University of Sheffield / 2221 / 16 / 1762 / 80.1%
94 / The University of York / 2111 / 17 / 1783 / 87.0%
Oxford Brookes University / 1901 / 18 / 1502 / 80.5%
94 / University of Bath / 1846 / 19 / 1473 / 81.9%
R / The University of Liverpool / 1745 / 20 / 1356 / 80.0%
R / Cardiff University / 1725 / 21 / 1262 / 75.5%
94 / University of St Andrews / 1498 / 22 / 682 / 47.4%
94 / Loughborough University / 1492 / 23 / 1295 / 88.0%
R / LSE / 1432 / 24 / 448 / 31.8%
R / Imperial College London / 1340 / 25 / 933 / 71.2%
Of these top 25 all except one, Oxford Brookes University, is a member of the Russell Group or 94 Group of universities. 18 of the 20 Russell Group universities are in the top 25, the twowhich are not are the University of Glasgow (896 applications, ranked 26th) and Queen's University of Belfast (328 applications; ranked 61st).
The offer rate isdetermined from the number of applications that resulted in an offer being made once the number of withdrawals has been deducted. The offer rates vary quite markedly across these universities but caution should be exercised in drawing conclusions. Some universities, such as LSE, offer a relatively small number of highly competitive courses. Others, whilst offering a wide range of courses, may have had a large number of applicants for the most competitive courses.
Comparison with the UCAS national data on 2011 degree applications (June 2011), is of interest. The top 10 universities,in order of numbers of applications are shown below.
Table 4b: comparison of national application number rankings with ISC rankings
Univ Code / University / Total applications(national) / National Rank / Rank (this survey)
M40 / The Manchester Metropolitan University / 57146 / 1 / 39
M20 / The University of Manchester / 56992 / 2 / 5
L23 / University of Leeds / 52447 / 3 / 2
N84 / The University of Nottingham / 46739 / 4 / 3
S21 / Sheffield Hallam University / 45430 / 5 / 43
K84 / Kingston University / 43892 / 6 / 50
L27 / Leeds Metropolitan University / 43277 / 7 / 34
B32 / The University of Birmingham / 42512 / 8 / 7
N91 / Nottingham Trent University / 42099 / 9 / 31
E56 / The University of Edinburgh / 40265 / 10 / 9
Regional variations: applications across regions of the UK
The profile of applications shown above was not uniform across all regions[5] in the UK. The table below gives the 10 most popular universities in terms of applications by UK region.
Table 4c: Most popular universities by region
East / Total / London / Total / North East / TotalLeeds / 610 / Bristol / 1794 / Newcastle / 507
Bristol / 549 / Nottingham / 1739 / Manchester / 487
Manchester / 484 / Leeds / 1515 / Leeds / 450
Nottingham / 479 / Durham / 1340 / Northumbria / 398
Newcastle / 469 / Manchester / 1287 / Nottingham / 352
Durham / 428 / Exeter / 1164 / Durham / 345
Exeter / 409 / UCL / 1142 / Bristol / 258
Birmingham / 399 / Birmingham / 1109 / Sheffield / 247
Sheffield / 350 / Warwick / 1034 / Liverpool / 246
UCL / 277 / Oxford / 1028 / Birmingham / 235
North West / Total / Scotland / Total / South Central / Total
Leeds / 424 / Edinburgh / 998 / Bristol / 1055
Nottingham / 350 / Aberdeen / 898 / Exeter / 821
Birmingham / 337 / Glasgow / 834 / Durham / 727
Newcastle / 319 / Dundee / 633 / Leeds / 655
Manchester / 306 / Strathclyde / 545 / UCL / 603
Sheffield / 284 / St Andrews / 437 / Nottingham / 598
Liverpool / 273 / Robert Gordon / 359 / Manchester / 584
Durham / 236 / Edinburgh Napier / 309 / Birmingham / 548
Bristol / 194 / Stirling / 269 / Oxford / 524
Edinburgh / 152 / Heriot-Watt / 250 / Southampton / 486
South East / Total / South West / Total / West / Total
Bristol / 498 / Cardiff / 338 / Bristol / 529
Exeter / 452 / Birmingham / 323 / Nottingham / 525
Durham / 443 / Bristol / 304 / Exeter / 522
Nottingham / 423 / Leeds / 289 / Leeds / 517
UCL / 397 / Southampton / 285 / Manchester / 478
Leeds / 347 / Exeter / 283 / Durham / 471
Warwick / 324 / Oxford Brookes / 250 / Birmingham / 419
Manchester / 314 / Manchester / 241 / UCL / 362
KCL / 297 / Durham / 238 / Oxford / 345
Southampton / 269 / Nottingham / 228 / Warwick / 329
There does not seem to be any dominant geographicalpreference for universities from the English regions. However, among students in the 15 Scottish schools in the survey,the preference is very definitely towards Scottish Universities; the highest ranking English university from them was Newcastle, ranked 11th.The importance of this regional analysis of applications may become apparent in 2012 when higher university fees take effect. Will the large fee increases cause students to apply to universities nearer their home?
By contrast there is quite wide variation across the regions for deferred entry (overall average 6.6% of all applications) ranging from 2.4% in the North West to 9.5% in the East.
Applications to Scottish universities merit their own analysis given the differential in fees chargeable to students resident in Scotland and in the rest of the UK.The table below shows the proportion of applications split by students from Scottish schools, and those elsewhere in the UK, to the 10 most popular Scottish universities. Only Edinburgh and St Andrews gained a higher proportion of applicants from the rest of the UK than from Scotland.
Table 4d:Proportion of applications to Scottish universities
Proportion of ApplicationsRank / University / Scottish Schools / Other UK
1 / Edinburgh / 30.2% / 69.8%
2 / Aberdeen / 78.0% / 22.0%
3 / Glasgow / 69.3% / 30.7%
4 / Dundee / 78.8% / 21.2%
5 / Strathclyde / 92.1% / 7.9%
6 / St Andrews / 29.1% / 70.9%
7 / Robert Gordon / 92.3% / 7.7%
8 / Edinburgh Napier / 79.4% / 20.6%
9 / Stirling / 67.6% / 32.4%
10 / Heriot-Watt, Edinburgh / 72.7% / 27.3%
All universities / 8.4% / 91.6%
If there is suspicion that offer rates from Scottish universities are consistently lower to students from non-Scottish schools, this is not borne out by the analysis as the table below confirms. Of the two universities that commanded a large number of applications from the other UK regions, Edinburgh and St Andrews, Edinburgh had a slightlylower offer rate but St Andrews was slightly higher.