Global Consciousness Project
Global Consciousness Project:
Exploratory Block Analysis of the
Columbia Space Shuttle Disaster
Bryan J. Williams
Department of Psychology
University of New Mexico
Albuquerque, NM87131
Abstract
Previous exploratory analyses of the data collected by a continuously running, globally-distributed network of random number generators during several major world events as part of the Global Consciousness Project (GCP) suggest that several different structural patterns within random data can be revealed with varying segment size, or “blocking.” Further exploration of this was carried out using the GCP data corresponding to the tragic loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia and its 7-member crew on February 1, 2003. It was found that 15-minute blocking of the data reveals graphical trends somewhat similar to that seen in standard seconds resolution, along with what appears to be stronger, transient deviations surrounding the event that, while most are not statistically significant, are nonetheless interesting. An attempt at inter-node network correlation produced a null result. Several issues regarding blocking such as signal detection, artifact vs. psi effect, and trend interpretation are discussed in light of these results.
Introduction
The tragic loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia and its crew of seven astronauts when it had suddenly exploded upon atmospheric reentry from space on the morning of February 1, 2003 was an event that had captured the attention of many Americans and again spread feelings of deep sorrow all across the country. Based on the fact that some of astronauts aboard were from other countries (one of the flight engineers had been born in India and another was an Israeli fighter pilot who became the first from his country to go into space), it was thought that the impact of the event would spread beyond the United States, and that some degree of worldwide attention and sorrow would be shared. Thus, it was thought that this tragedy had the markings for a global event that would possibly draw out a form of shared global consciousness.
The Global Consciousness Project (GCP) had been formed in 1998 by Roger Nelson with the intent of attempting to detect possible signatures of this ostensible global consciousness during major events that capture the attention and the emotions of the world through the monitoring of the first Internet-based, globally-distributed network of electronic, truly random number generators (RNGs). The general hypothesis is that when major world-affecting events occur, the behavior of random physical systems is briefly perturbed through a form of shared mind-matter interaction in conjunction with the focused attention of the global population and the emotions elicited in response to the events. This is based on previous experimental research that revealed negentropic directional trends in RNG output that correlates with subject mental intention (Jahn et al., 1997; Radin, 1997), and subsequent field research using portable RNGs that revealed significant randomness deviations during social events that drew mass attention and shared group interaction (Nelson et al., 1996, 1998 a, b; Radin, 1997). Since its inception, the GCP has produced highly significant cumulative results suggestive of some sort of statistical anomaly (Nelson, 2001; Nelson, Radin, Shoup, & Bancel, 2002).
One issue to arise from the results is the degree of resolution that is optimal for detecting the observed deviation signal. Previous GCP explorations of this using varying data segment lengths seemed to produce differing perspectives on the trend behavior, causing the result to sometimes shift from initial nonsignificance in seconds resolution to significance in 15-minute resolution (e.g., Nelson, 1999a). There are several smaller issues that come out of this, the first being that of artifact vs. genuine signal. It would seem that grouping data into equal time segment periods (i.e., “blocking” the data) can be quite useful in providing additional perspectives on the data trends, in that it could collectively strengthen a weak signal spread out across time that would otherwise go undetected in standard seconds resolution. Previous experimental research on mind-matter interaction effects indicate that the effects are often times very weak and subtle signals that tend to emerge from the background noise only after a large number of trials has been gathered and collectively examined (Jahn et al., 1997; Radin, 1997), and if global consciousness effects involve many of the same processes as intentional mind-matter interaction effects, the same limitations might apply to them. On the other hand, it is equally possible that blocking might very well inflate the actual trend and therefore produce statistical artifacts that turn out to be significant when they are really not (i.e., “false signals”). Recent GCP analyses as of 2000 using unblocked, real-time data suggest that not all of the observed signals in the data are likely to be statistical artifacts (one alternative way proposed to explain the results), as the anomalous trends still often appear where they are predicted to be, yet the possibility exists that some of the events for which null results were found might actually have weaker, time-varying trends that were so subtle that they were undetectable using seconds resolution, and thus some of the events might have only seemed to have random walks when we would not expect them to, when in fact the trend was unobservable because the data were not blocked. Thus, there remains to be some degree of “give and take” that comes with blocking, and it deserves further study.
A second issue that arises is the correlation between the degree of emotional impact from the event and the presence of an anomalous signal. The results of a previous field RNG study conducted in a therapeutic setting suggested that there is a unique correlation between the outpouring of emotions and directional deviations from randomness in a nearby RNG, with anger and aggression correlating with a positive deviation, and anxious crying correlating with a negative deviation (Blasband, 2000). From this, it can argued that global consciousness may largely involve mass emotional reactions to events, and that a shared emotional outpouring may be what is correlated with many of the significant results found in the GCP database. In the formal analysis of the Columbia disaster, this did not seem to be the case, as the trend was near baseline throughout the formal prediction period and were only slightly consistent with the emotion-deviation correlation by displaying a negative trend towards the end, possibly reflective of the wide sorrow and mourning for the astronauts who perished (Nelson et al., 2003).
There are a number of GCP events within the database similar to the Columbia disaster that seem to be consistent with the emotion-deviation correlation, however. The nationwide sorrow over the loss of John F. Kennedy, Jr. in a plane crash in July of 1999 seemed to be reflected in the network of RNGs (called “EGGs”) during the time of a public mass in New York, and an interesting “earth consciousness” reaction at the moment of the crash seemed to display a potentially meaningful response (Nelson, 1999b). The four-hour aftermath of the Concorde crash in Paris on July 25, 2000 that became world news first showed a very strong positive deviation from chance, which then sharply reversed midway through the prediction period into a strong negative trend (Nelson et al., 2000a). Concern over the safety and survival of the Russian naval men aboard the submarine Kursk after it had exploded and sank in August of 2000 seemed to be reflected in the EGG data to a suggestive degree, displaying a growing positive trend that began with the explosion and carried on into the first few days of waiting for word of the situation (Nelson et al., 2000b). The crash of American Airlines Flight 587 in Queens, NY on November 12, 2001 had resulted in a sharp downward trend that leveled and remained low throughout all of the formal prediction period, seemingly in line with the fears of many people that another terrorist hijacking had occurred aboard a commercial airliner (Nelson et al., 2001). The plane crash that took the life of Senator Paul Wellstone on October 25, 2002 had seemingly brought about a very strong trend among the EGGs positioned within the United States, which appeared to be reflective of the widespread grief among Americans upon hearing the news (Nelson, 2002). And of course, there is September 11, 2001, an event in which some of the strongest deviations in the history of the GCP were seen throughout the network, and these deviations extended over the course of two days, which was much in line with the sustained shock, fear, and grief that resonated throughout the world in the days following the tragedy (Nelson et al., 2002).
An exploratory block analysis was carried out on the EGG data corresponding to the Columbia disaster to supplement the results of the formal GCP prediction analysis (Nelson et al., 2003), as well as to examine the two above issues in further detail, the result of which may be useful in generating future hypotheses to be tested with blocked data and in future GCP events that could be predicted to show some degree of emotion-randomness deviation correlation. An additional exploratory block analysis of a related event, a major memorial ceremony for the astronauts held at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX which involved the participation of families of the astronauts, NASA staff members, and several dignitaries including President Bush, and was broadcast nationally on television, was also carried out to look for any randomness deviations in the data that may be correlated with the feelings of sorrow that was likely to have been shared by many during the ceremony. Recent GCP and field RNG explorations of funeral and memorial services suggest that even these events can sometimes show significant deviations from randomness (Nelson et al., 1998a; Williams, 2002), but that this is not always the case (Nelson et al., 1998b). Thus, it was thought that this event might also serve as another informal test in determining the kinds of emotional events that tend to show group consciousness effects.
Method
The details of the EGG network components and the formal procedures used by the GCP have been described in detail elsewhere (Nelson, 2001; Nelson et al., 2002), and so only the methods used in the present study will be described here in full. The daily summary files for February 1, 2, and 4, 2003 were first downloaded from the GCP website ( princeton.edu). The files are in table form, where columns represent the data from the individual EGGs reporting on the given day, and rows give the synchronized time in Universal Coordinate Time (UTC). The data that corresponded with U. S. Central Standard Time (CST), which given current time changes is 6 hours behind UTC, were then extracted and used for the analysis. The formal prediction for the Columbia disaster that was entered in the GCP Prediction Registry[1] lists the specified analysis timeperiod as 8:00 A.M. - 12:00 P.M. Eastern Standard Time (7:00 - 11:00 A.M. CST, or 13:00 - 17:00 UTC), which begins one hour before the disaster (pre-event period) and ends three hours following it (aftermath period), with predictions for deviations from randomness occurring within this timeframe as the news of the disaster spreads. The same timeframe was used in the analyses carried out in the present study, in block periods of 15-minutes. In addition, a context examination of the entire day of February 1 in CST was conducted for further exploration. Three types of analyses were carried out on the data: cumulative deviation of Chi-square, block period odds ratio, and inter-EGG correlation.
Cumulative Deviation of Chi-Square
The cumulative deviation of Chi-square is the primary analysis method employed by the GCP, and was therefore meant to also act as the primary measure of the deviation from randomness for this study. The daily summary files come in the form of block Z-scores, which are obtained by the following method: the raw individual output of each EGG is the sum of 200 binary number samples per second, with equal distributions of “1”s and “0”s being the expected outcome at chance, given a truly random system. The measure of the mean deviation from chance expectation for each EGG over 1 second is computed as a normalized z-score in the form , where x is the number of observed trial “1”s, 100 is the mean number of “1” bits expected by chance, and 50 is the trial sum variance (Aron & Aron, 1997; Nelson, 2001). For each EGG, we then compute a block Stouffer’s Z over a 15-minute period (900 seconds) as
which are then in the form found in the daily summary files (Nelson, 2001). We then square these Z-scores to create a 15-minute block deviation value for each EGG with 1 df that is Chi-square distributed. Since Chi-square values are additive, we can sum these values across EGGs and across time, with df = (# of 15-minute blocks) × (# of active EGGs).This procedure effectively responds to the variability among the EGGs of the network.
Block Period Odds Ratio
The block Z-scores in the daily summary files can also be collapsed into a single value representative of the composite deviation value for the entire network over one 15-minute block period by computing a second Stouffer’s Z, with which a block period odds ratio can be obtained. First, all of the Z-scores in the files are sign corrected based on the given “1”s obtained in the 15-minute period out of the total number of trials for each EGG (~ 180,000). The Stouffer’s Z is then computed across all the active EGGs as
where N is the number of EGGs reporting for every 15-minute interval. We can then calculate a probability value for this block Z, from which we can compute the associated odds against chance. This method was first used in an exploratory analysis of a related sorrowful event (the accidental death of a friend of the author) as a means of further insight, with promising initial results (Williams, 2002).
Inter-EGG Correlation
An alternative to the standard Chi-square approach for detecting anomalous deviations is to examine for correlated deviations between the individual EGGs in the network. Given that the EGGs are separated by large distances so that no localized physical phenomena could influence them all at once simultaneously, and that by theory of a truly random system they should produce outputs that are independent of each other, we would expect that the EGGs will show no correlated output. However, if in the instance of a given affective global event we should observe positive correlations between two or more of the EGGs higher than that expected by chance alone surrounding the timeframe of the event, then this could be suggestive of some kind of common nonlocal source, such as a hypothesized global consciousness, that is affecting the EGGs during that period.
A preliminary approach to explore the intercorrelations among the EGGs was developed by Doug Mast (2001) with promising results for the years 1999 and 2000, and the method was adapted for the present study. First, the daily summary file for February 1 in CST was obtained, and any EGGs which had incomplete data (i.e., they had one or more missing blocks) for the entire day were removed. All possible pair-wise Pearson correlation coefficients were computed for all the remaining EGGs in the network. The same was also done for the data from a randomly chosen CST day (January 15, 2003) on which no predicted event that would be thought to show excess positive correlations occurred, and this would act as a control day for comparison.
For each pair-wise correlation, a “hit” was noted if rr0, and a “miss” if rr0, where the number of hits and misses should be equal by theoretical expectation. An excess number of hits would therefore be taken as in interesting result from which a z-score and an associated probability value could be computed. A more detailed description of the procedure can be found in Mast (2001).
Results
Cumulative Deviation of Chi-Square
Figure 1 shows the result for the formal prediction period in 15-minute block resolution, with the approximate time of the Columbia explosion marked. Similar to the formal result in seconds resolution (Nelson et al., 2003), it shows a growing trend toward negative values, leading to an overall result of 2 = 730.64 on 771 df, p = .85. Most notable in the graph is the particularly strong trend that follows the explosion, a trend that was not observed in the seconds resolution graph.
