Emergence of the 5Th Generation of Leadership: Periscoping the 17Th CPC Congress by Navigating

Emergence of the 5th Generation of Leadership:

Periscoping the 17th CPC Congress by Navigating within a Series of Dialectical Models

W. Emily CHOW and Peter Kien-hong YU

(Emails: and )

GraduateSchool of International Affairs

MingChuanUniversity

Taoyuan Campus, Taiwan, R.O.C.

September 24, 2007
Emergence of the 5th Generation of Leadership: Periscoping the 17th CPC Congress by Navigating within a Series of Dialectical Models

W. Emily CHOW and Peter Kien-hong YU

GraduateSchool of International Affairs

MingChuanUniversity

Taoyuan Campus, Taiwan, R.O.C.

September 28, 2007

Abstract This paper is an attempt to decode and decipher the Chinese Communist words and deeds. The HU Jintao regime is likely to remain in power until the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC). However, it has to continue to pick or groom a suitable elite or the next cohorts of leaders to succeed HU. Arguably, the successor, keeping the pace of time, must learn to navigate within the safe zones of a series of dialectical models, because the mainstream Market Economy line is suppose to continue for a long period of time.

Key words HU Jintao, Communist Party of China congress, successors, models and theories, dialectics

In John M. H. Lindbeck’s Understanding China: An Assessment of American Scholarly Resources, we learned that, in 1958-1959, the study of both Taiwan and mainland China was in its developmental decade.[1] In David L. Shambaugh’s American Studies of Contemporary China, we were told that the new generation of (Communist) China studies in the 1990s has acquired a better “feel” for China.[2] Years later, WU Yu-shan of the Republic of China (ROC) attempted to theorize relations across the Taiwan Strait in terms of nine contending approaches, such as the divided-nation model, the power asymmetry model, the strategic triangle model, and cognitive psychological model.[3] SHU Keng argued that we should move beyond those dyadic models as examined by WU. As an alternative, he proposed the linkage communities analytical framework, which can allow more serious, in-depth, and comprehensive assessments of the impacts of socio-economic contacts or interactions, political pressures, and policy outputs across both sides of the Taiwan Strait.[4]

Arguably, if we want to have a closer and fuller understanding of Chinese (Communist) politics, we should first apply the dialectical approach. There is ample evidence to show that the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Nationalist Party of China or Kuomintang (KMT), the Democratic Progressive party (DPP), etc. apply dialectics of one kind or another, not the models or theories mentioned in the last paragraph.

To be sure, a typical Chinese mind works in the following way: First, he or she would first think of a dot,[5] be it a symbol, a concept, a sentence, a house, the Earth, the solar system, or even the universe. Second, the dialectician would find its opposite or extreme. For example, one would think of house, and its opposite or extreme would be non-house and vice versa. Third, he or she would make side-ways moves like a crab. Fourth, if this House versus Non-house model cannot describe and explain, if not infer or predict, certain phenomena, the dialectician would right away construct another dialectical model. Hence, we would see a series of dialectical frameworks at work. In other words, the dialectician would play a role of a frog, leaping from this model to another model.[6]

One of the authors’ models is as follows. It was first constructed in September 1994 and later somewhat modified four times:

1 2 3 4 5 A B C D E

time/space sequence (1)

time/space sequence (2)

………………………..

time/space sequence (n)

1 (or 100% of the concept or whatever);

3 (or 50% of the concept or whatever);

5 (or 1% of the concept or whatever).

E (or 100% of the concept or whatever);

C (or 50% of the concept or whatever);

A (or 1% of the concept or whatever).

The 1 2 3 4 5 spectrum is equivalent to what I call the safe zone, and the A B C D E spectrum, danger zone. 5 is the middle way/road/path/line/trackin the safe zone and A, the middle way/road/path/line/track in the danger zone.[7]

When one makes a move at any time/space sequence, he or she is thinking of only one Number or Letter, and, therefore, there is no contradiction whatsoever. In the course of making moves, the negation of negation, the affirmation of negation, the affirmation of affirmation, and the negation of affirmation may also appear before time/space sequence (n) is reached. This process is known as the sub-dialectical game. It should be pointed out that there are three basic stages (or nodal points) of development (or for each concept or whatever): nascent, ascendant, and mature for the Numbers and mature, descendant, and moribund for the Letters. In other words, 5 is nascent; 3, ascendant; and 1, mature. On the other hand, E is mature: C, descendant; and A, moribund. Last but not least, a series of other dialectical, theoretical models must be applied, in order to describe, explain, and infer (or predict) more phenomena.

At this juncture, a caveat should be added, that is, whenever we use the word, versus, it means that the concept or whatever on the left extreme, say Yes, or 1 will eventually defeat, coopt, absorb, etc. the concept or whatever on the right extreme, say No, at time/space sequence (n). However, in the process, the following arrangement may be necessary, such as flexibly positioning Yes at 1 and No at 5. In other words, a contradictory or even adversary relationship between Yes and No has been transformed into a non-contradictory, non-adversary relationship, meaning that whoever chose Yes or whoever opted No should learn to tolerate the existence of each other, because they are in the safe zone spectrum.

The following series of models, which were first conceived in late 2000 and put in print in early 2005,[8] can help us to have a closer and fuller understanding of what should the fifth generation leaders of the CPC should understand, if they want to climb the power ladder or to have better, if not higher, positions. Needless to say, they have to comply with the Centralism versus Democracy model and to ask the party members to do it as well. Otherwise, all the models could crumble, like a domino effect.

In the first section of this paper, we will first spell out the structures of Marxism, Leninism, MAO Zedong Thought, the DENG Xiaoping Theory, the JIANG Zemin Important Theory or Sangedaibiao (Three Represents). We will also outline HU Jintao’s credo or theoretical proposition (lunshu) of Scientific Development Perspective in All Aspects of Economic Work (kexuefazhanguan) or the outlook of scientific development in an all-round way, and another of HU’s vital theoretical innovations, named harmony in the society.[9] Then, the authors will remind the fifth generation leaders about the mainstream economic lines/paths/tracks/ways/roads since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In the next section, we will discuss the first superstructure, namely, country, which includes the national title, national song, national anthem, etc. In the third section, the authors will talk about the ideology, which is thesecond superstructure. In the fourth section, we will analyze the third superstructure, politics. Finally, the authors will talk about military affairs, which follow politics. In each section, we will discuss mainland China’s relationship with Taiwan.

Why Dialectical Politics?

MAO is the first generation or echelon leader. This is because it was he who led the Chinese Communist Party since January 1935 to eventually overthrow the CHIANG Kai-shek Government. When he was over 40 years, he said he became well versed in dialectics. For him, there were two dots/points/extremes (liangdianlun) at present. In future, there will still be two points. He also said that, in ancient China, the two points were called Yin and Yang, respectively. MAO certainly relied on dialectics to play politics and engage in military affairs. Once, he said he would like to convert the 600million Chinese into dialecticians. In this respect, what he did has influenced the second generation leaders like ZHOU Enlai and DENG Xiaoping, who were also Long Marchers. In short, their political language is definitely couched in terms of dialectics.

One of the best examples of the dialectical model as constructed by DENG is: OneCenter, Two Points. One Center refers to the Economic Construction. It is like a roof, housetop, or eaves. Under the roof, there are two points. The first point is the Four Insistences (sigejianchi), such as adhering to Marxism, Leninism, and MAO Zedong Thought; and the other point, Reform and Opening to the Outside World (gaigekaifang), because he knows that, once opened to the outside world, the Chinese mainland (neidi) will be bound to have corruptions. This is also true in capitalist countries. So, in order to reconcile the two points or extremes, he instructed his subordinates to, serving as a dynamic, operational concept or what the Chinese Communists called fangzhen, conduct anti-corruption campaigns (fanfubaiyundong), so as to bring about the disappearance of the right extreme by elimination, cooptation, absorption, etc. To be sure, HU, to this day, is carrying out the campaigns. In March 2007, a National Corruption Prevention Bureau (NCPB) (Guojiayufangfubaiju) was approved by the National People’s Congress (NPC) for the first time, to, among other things, to meet commitments to the United Nations Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC). Certainly, HU’s successors will do the same, so as to enable the party to stay in power. Otherwise, the CPC may become an opposition party.

JIANG is a third generation leader of the core, who, as an underground Communist member in ShanghaiMunicipality, sided with the Chinese Communist Party on the eve of the creation of the PRC. He was confirmed as the core leader in September 1994 at the 4th Plenum of the 14th CPC Congress. He practices dialectics. From July 1995 to March 1996, it was he who ordered seven waves of military exercises of one kind or another against the ROC. The dialectical model he chose was Not to Attack versus To Attack. In terms of the 1 2 3 4 5 A B C D E model mentioned above, military exercises were being positioned at 5, because, while, for example, unarmed ballistic missiles were launched, no one was hurt or injured during this period. In September 1997, it was JIANG who announced the Market Economy line.[10] Later, he added the Three Represents, which should be understood in terms of the whole picture. We will show this in the next section. JIANG’s Shanghai gang gradually lost its power, especially after October 2006.[11] With the death of HUANG Ju in June 2007, who was JIANG’s protégé, the Shanghai gang could be said as being symbolically lost its power. WANG Weigong, who had headed the office in Beijing of HUANG Ju, was detained in a widening probe over misuse of ShanghaiMunicipality's pension funds in August 2007. Vice President ZENG Qinghong, also the right hand man of JIANG, has expressed his intention to step down from the party’s Political Bureau Standing Committee in a letter to HU in April 2007.[12] CHEN Liangyu, the former ShanghaiMunicipality party secretary, was also arrested, and expelled from both his administrative post and the party (called double expulsion, shuangkai) for corruption.[13] Moreover, JIANG Mianheng, son of JIANG Zemin, and YOU Xigui, Head of Central Police Bureau (CPB) and JIANG Zemin’s body guard, both failed to be elected as representatives to the 17th CPC Congress.[14]All these further indicated the collapse of the gang.

HU, who is a fourth generation leader,[15] is also well versed in dialectics. In September 2004, JIANG handed HU the chairman position in the Central Military Commission (CMC), completing the first bloodless leadership succession in the party’s turbulent history. Again, HU’s Scientific Development Perspective in All Aspects of Economic Work, and harmony in the society are part of the whole picture, which will be elaborated in later sections.

The fifth generation leaders are being defined as those who were born in the 1950s. They consist of many “sent-down youth,” who are often referred to as members of “the lost generation” of the Great Proletariat Cultural Revolution (GPCR).[16] Some potential candidates have been surfaced in the press, such as LI Keqiang, YU Zhengsheng,ZHOU YonggangLI Yuanchao, XI Jinpping, BO Xilai, WANG Qishan, MA Kai, WANG Yang, and LIU Yandong,[17] many of them are the so-called princelings (taizidang) or the children of incumbent, retired, or late Chinese Communist high-ranking leaders. Although the two LIs are widely believed to be HU’s possible successors, it is still too early to predict as today’s political stars may not become the leader tomorrow, especially in a rapidly changing society. We must remember the “Who is HU?” days when HU was first elected into the Political Bureau Standing Committee in October 1992.[18] He afterwards still carefully took a low profile, made steady progress, and gradually lined up support for 11 years while waiting for his day to come.
But in general, this generation differs profoundly from preceding generations in terms of their formative experiences, educational credentials, political socialization, administrative backgrounds, foreigncontacts and world views. For example, both LI Keqiang and LI Yuanchao hold doctoral degrees.[19] The latter has studied at the Kennedy School of Government at HarvardUniversity in June 2002.[20] And both of them tend to be market-friendly and popular with the foreign business community.[21]The collective characteristics and intra-generational diversity of this new generation of leaders will likely have a strong impact on the Chinese mainland's political trajectory and socio-economic policies in the years to come.[22]

In sum, the fifth generation leaders will certainly not rely on game theory, system theory, or rational (choice) theory, which were developed in the West, when they hold Political Bureau meetings. Imagine if they did apply those Western theories, they would still have to change the thinking of, for example, the 2.3 million military officers and soldiers in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Would the 72.3-million-member Chinese Communist Party have the time to do it? The resounding answer is: Of course not, because it simply means a waste of time, energy, budget, etc.

Marxism-Leninism-MAO Zedong Thought

The massive spread of Marxism in China began after the October Revolution in Czarist Russia.[23] MAO often mentions Karl Marx and Vladimir I. Lenin during his era. This is because he understands that whenever Marx studies the human development, he takes the following phases of development or spectrum into consideration, namely, primitive Communism, feudalism, capitalism, socialism, and Communist. As to Lenin, his framework is smaller, that is, Feudalism versus Communism.

What about MAO himself? He focuses on the Communism versus Capitalism model. In other words, his dialectical model is even smaller than Lenin’s and much smaller than Marx’s. In other words, he was playing a sub-dialectical game.

Why is it called the DENG Theory? DENG, lacking other options, especially in view of the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, adopted the Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (as opposed to Socialism with Distinct Chinese Characteristics after the adoption of the Market Economy line/path/track/way/road) versus Capitalism framework. This is a breakthrough in Marxism, because Marx did not talk about the Market Economy line. Because he knew that, playing another sub-dialectical game, his model is part of MAO’s, if not Lenin’s and Marx’s, he could not abandon Maoism after MAO’s death in September 1976. He can only describe MAO’s record as being 70% good or correct and 30% bad or wrong.

JIANG’s Three Represents can be seen in the safe zone in the Socialism versus Capitalism model. The Socialism with Distinct Chinese Characteristics and Market Economy constitute the safe zone. The first Represent constitutes the subject (zhuti) [as opposed to object (keti)] and it refers to the workers, peasants, and the Chinese PLA who are standing under or positioned at the Socialism with Distinct Chinese Characteristics. The intellectuals are placed at 3. And the three million businessmen (siyingqiyezhu) and entrepreneurs, who are organized in about 180,000 party cells and who would keep Socialism with Distinct Chinese Characteristics in mind and at heart, stand at 5, which refers to the Market Economy line. They are welcome to join the party since July 2001.[24] In October 2006, the CPC for the first time mentioned the term, xindejingjihanshehuizhuzhi or shuangxinzhuzhi for short. That is to say, delegates to the 17th Party Congress should include them. ZhejiangProvince, for example, will have one delegate who represent the businessmen and entreprenuers. Besides, the counter-revolutionary crime has been revised into the crime of jeopardizing state security. Of course, the former crime still applies to those who are in the danger zone, practicing 1%, 50%, or 100% of capitalism.

After taking over the General Secretary position and at the same time becoming the PRC President in November 2002 in addition to become the CMC Chairman of both the party and the PRC in September 2004, HU,in December 2004, mentioned the concept, Scientific Development Perspective in All Aspects of Economic Work. What is meant by this? HU actually wants to remind the CPC members that someday the Market Economy line will again be replaced by the Socialism with Distinct Chinese Characteristics as the mainstream economic line. As in one of his most important speeches since he became mainland China’s President in November 2002, at the CPCCentralPartySchool in Beijing on June 25 2007, HU emphasized that the nation must advance the self-perfection in the development of the socialist political system, while preserving the Communist Party’s monopoly on political power.[25] Most importantly, “…to insist on and develop the Socialism with Distinct Chinese Characteristics” said HU.[26] When the Socialism with Distinct Chinese Characteristics becomes the mainstream economic line again, the CPC will be applying or returning to the Communism versus Capitalism model. To him, this is the inevitable, scientific development. To remind the party members that they are superior to the capitalists who are positioned at A, B, C, D, and E, the CPC from January 2005 to June 2006 was engaged in theBaoxian movement, which literally refers to “The Preservation of the Advanced Characteristics of the CPC.”