This Document and Its Contents Have Been Prepared and Are Intended Solely for Cofely

1

Notice

This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for Cofely / North East Lincolnshire’s Council information and use in relation to the Local Economic Audit and Employment Land Review.

Atkins Ltd assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents.

Document History

JOB NUMBER:5127325 / DOCUMENT REF:Futures Report
Revision / Purpose Description / Originated / Checked / Reviewed / Authorised / Date
0 / Draft Final / RC / JG / ID / RC / 08/04/14
1 / Final / RC / JG / ID / RC / 30/06/14
2 / Final / RC / ES / ID / RC / 29/07/14

Table of contents

Chapterpages

1.Introduction

1.1.Purpose

1.2.Method

1.3.Structure

2.Policy & Market Drivers

2.1.Introduction

2.2.Policy Drivers

2.3.Business Growth Drivers & Threats

2.4.Market Drivers

3.Scenario Development

3.1.Introduction

3.2.Scenario Methodology and Outputs

3.3.Baseline Scenario

3.4.Policy Scenarios

3.5.Employment Scenarios Summary

4.Future Employment Land Demand

4.1.Introduction

4.2.Method

4.3.Employment Land Demand Scenarios

4.4.Site and Location Preferences

4.5.Land-Use Scenarios Summary

5.Conclusions

Tables

Table 2-1Proposed actions by theme in Humber SEP

Table 2-2Actions proposed for sectoral support in Greater Lincolnshire SEP

Table 2-3North East Lincolnshire Development and Growth Plan

Table 2-4 - Major Project Investment Proposals – NE Lincolnshire & Neighbouring Areas: Baseline

Table 2-5 - Major Project Investment Proposals – NE Lincolnshire & Neighbouring Areas: Scenario 1

Table 2-6 - Major Project Investment Proposals – NE Lincolnshire & Neighbouring Areas: Scenario 2

Table 2-7 – Key Sectors: Market Opportunities & Threats

Table 2-8 – Other Sectors: Market Opportunities & Threats

Table 3-1 – Underlying Employment Growth Rates by Sector Group and Scenario 2013-2032

Table 3-2: Employment Structure in North East Lincolnshire 2013

Table 3-3: Projected Employment Change 2011-2031 (REM)

Table 3-4: Employment Forecast: Atkins Baseline Scenario

Table 3-5: Employment Forecast: Policy Scenario 1

Table 3-6: Employment Forecast: Policy Scenario 2

Table 3-7: Net Additional Employment Growth Scenarios 2013-2032

Table 4-1: Translating Employment SIC to B Use Class Categories (% employment by SIC)

Table 4-2: Employment density and plot ratio assumptions

Table 4-3: Baseline B-Use Job Growth 2013-2032

Table 4-4: Gross B use class floorspace demand (sqm) 2013-32 – Baseline Scenario

Table 4-5: Gross B use class land demand (ha) 2013-32 – Baseline Scenario

Table 4-6: Policy Scenario 1 - B-Use Job Growth 2013-2032

Table 4-7: Gross B use class floorspace demand (sqm) 2013-32 – Policy Scenario 1

Table 4-8: Gross B use class land demand (ha) 2013-32 – Policy Scenario 1

Table 4-9: Policy Scenario 2 - B-Use Job Growth 2013-2032

Table 4-10: Gross B use class floorspace demand (sqm) 2013-32 – Policy Scenario 2

Table 4-11: Gross B use class land demand (ha) 2013-32 – Policy Scenario 2

Table 4-12: Typical Site and Location Preferences by Sector

Figures

Figure 3-1: Annual Total Employment Growth Scenarios 2013-2032

Figure 4-1: B Use Class Job Growth Scenarios 2013-2032 (FTE)

Figure 4-2: Additional B Use Class Gross Land Demand Scenarios 2013-2032 (ha)

1.Introduction

1.1.Purpose

Economic & Employment Demand

The primary purpose of this report is to provide estimates of future potential employment change in North East Lincolnshire in the period up to 2032. This builds on the findings of an associated study which provided a detailed assessment of five key sectors which have been identified as priorities by local economic development policies and strategies which are briefly described in section 2 of this report. The five key sectors are:

Ports and logistics.

Food processing.

Chemicals and process industries.

Renewables and energy.

Visitor Economy, services and retail.

Whilst prioritised in terms of warranting a full assessment to better understand the dynamics of each key sector and in targeting external and internal investment, it is important to highlight that the five sectors represent only a proportion of the whole North East Lincolnshire economy. As the sector study shows, collectively the five sectors contribute to the whole economy at least 30% in terms of employment and up to 60% of GDP. Consequently, in preparing estimates of employment change in North East Lincolnshire, this report considers the prospects of the whole economy including major public sector services such as education, health and public administration alongside other large private sector services including business and financial services, real estate activities and information and communications.

The main objective of preparing future employment scenarios for the authority is to inform a range of core policy responsibilities of the Council. In particular, the scenarios will help shape estimates of employment land need and associated employment related policies in the forthcoming Local Plan. In addition, they will be used to inform wider economic development, regeneration and inward investment priorities and related interventions by NEL and its public and private sector partners.

1.2.Method

The method employed by this study to prepare estimates of future employment demand has been driven largely by a ‘bottom-up’ approach. Unlike conventional, econometric forecasting models such as the Regional REM model (Leeds University) and those issued by Experian, Oxford Economics and other forecasting houses, the methodology utilised here is significantly influenced by local, sub-regional and regional economic prospects. This is not to say that national macro-economic influences or trend-based projections are excluded from the analysis. Indeed, it is important that national and local trends and economic structures provide the starting point for the forecasts produced for this study. However, a weakness of nationally-driven, econometric forecasting models is that they typically are not constructed in a manner which sufficiently builds in the effect of significant supply-side factors and planned project-specific investments. It is only when such investments have taken place and had a recorded effect on the performance of a local economy are they usually reflected in trend-based forecasts. Consequently, in the case of North East Lincolnshire, where dynamic changes are taking place in a range of important sectors, we consider it imperative that a set of forecasts are made available which explicitly but realistically capture the potential effects of likely economic growth arising from substantial planned investment in major projects.

Given the underlying methodology and associated assumptions which underpin the forecasts set out in this report, these should be considered as ‘policy-led’ estimates of change. By their nature, such forecasts take a positive outlook as to the future performance of the economy albeit based on objective analysis of evidence and opportunity. As highlighted elsewhere, substantial primary and secondary evidence has been gathered and independently assessed to inform the findings of this study and the associated forecasts. This evidence includes:

A statistically significant sample survey of locally-established businesses (approximately 370 in total).

In-depth interviews with local employers and key stakeholders in the area (approximately 30).

Analysis of government and locally generated secondary data and other relevant information including other recent research.

An assessment of local, sub-regional and regional socio-economic conditions and prospects including a review of up-to-date policy drivers and priorities which have already been established to underpin the economic development objectives for North East Lincolnshire.

1.3.Structure

This remainder of this report is structured as follows:

Section 2 summarises the primary drivers of economic change and growth in North East Lincolnshire which includes consideration of the key opportunities and challenges facing the area.

Section 3 sets out a series of future economic scenarios for the period up to 2032.

Section 4 translates the employment growth scenarios into estimates of future requirements for additional employment floorspace and land for the period up to 2032.

Section 5 summarises the conclusions of the study.

2.Policy & Market Drivers

2.1.Introduction

This section considers the main drivers of economic changeand influencing factors which are likely to shape the future economy of North East Lincolnshire. This includes both policy and market factors and an outline of the main opportunities and challenges facing the Borough at the time of writing.

Consideration of the key drivers and potential constraints to economic change and growth is important to the development of future economic scenarios which are set out in the subsequent section.

2.2.Policy Drivers

North East Lincolnshire form part of two Local Economic Partnerships (LEPs): Humber and Greater Lincolnshire. In their recently published Strategic Economic Plans (SEPs), clear economic visions and priorities are established by both LEPs. These strategic objectives have a clear sector-focus with the Humber LEP aiming to become a leading national and international centre for renewable energy and, capitalising on the sub-region’s natural assets, establish a strong export-focused clusters of manufacturing and service-based activities.

2.2.1.Humber LEP’s Strategic Economic Plan 2014-2020

Aims and vision

The Humber SEP identifies the Humber estuary as a national asset and a key factor in shaping economic opportunities in the area, particularly in respect of the offshore renewables and ports sectors. The plan states an ambition for the Humber ‘Energy Estuary’ to become “a renowned national and international centre for renewable energy and an area whose economy is resilient and competitive”.

Feeding in to this ambition are three visions:

Economy - creating a thriving renewablesector supported by access to finance and capital schemes.

Skills - a better-aligned skills profile and reduction in the proportion of the population with no qualifications.

Place –a strong visitor economy, increased civic pride and improved infrastructure and housing, including addressing flooding and coastal erosion.

Barriers to growth identified in the SEP include:

A low skill level amongst a significant section of the workforce with an overreliance on low-skilled employment. This constraint is evident in North East Lincolnshire, which exhibits a particularly low proportion of the population with high-level qualifications, and an above average proportion of the population with no qualifications (see local economic audit report, 2014).

Relatively high levels of economic inactivity, unemployment and long-term sickness. Whilst economic activity in the Boroughis not substantially lower than the national average, the area does display relatively high levels of unemployment and long-term sickness.

Poor business survival and growth rates which are reinforced by relatively low take-up of national business support programmes. NEL particularly has experienced low rates of business survival in recent years, accounting for nearly 50% of all start-up ‘deaths’ in the Humber area.

Priority Sectors

Seven key sectors are targeted by the Humber LEP:

Renewables and energy.

Ports and logistics.

Engineering and manufacturing.

Chemicals and processing.

Food and agriculture.

Digital and creative.

Visitor economy.

These priority sectors are of notable relevance to the future of the North East Lincolnshire economy.

For the ports and logistics sector, the SEP notes that the offshore renewable sector represents the greatest opportunity for growth. Key activities proposed to support the sector include developing the Grimsby Port Delivery Plan (to include several infrastructure improvements), stimulating the expansion of specialist businesses (including prioritising physical developments), business and supply chain support and skills development programmes for local residents.

For the chemicals and process industries sector, activities identified in the plan include fostering links between employers and skills providers in order to ensure labour supply meets demand and to promote innovation, skills development programmes and improving business support.

Food is another key sector for both NEL and the Humber LEP. In particular, the SEP highlights the potential for encouraging linkages between NEL’s seafood cluster and the sector elsewhere in the area, including collaboration with the Greater Lincolnshire LEP. Key support activities for the sector include targeted supply chain support andassistance in accessing international markets, cross-LEP projects and collaboration between local specialists, closer links with training providers and support to companies in accessing higher education expertise to facilitate innovation.

In terms of the visitor economy, the SEP notes the importance of heritage coastline and seaside resorts in NEL, and that Cleethorpes has witnessed one of the largest increases in coastal house prices in the past decade. Key support activities include skills development programmes, promotion of the Humber as a location for national and international events, development and promotion of the area’s natural and built environment, and supporting businesses in taking advantage of opportunities presented by the sector.

Proposed actions and developments

Proposed actions and developments are organised across five themes. These are presented in Table 2-1 along with selected key projects of particular relevance to North East Lincolnshire.

Table 2-1Proposed actions by theme in Humber SEP

Theme / Direct relevance to NEL / Indirect relevance to NEL
Creating an infrastructure that supports growth /

• A160/A180 Port of Immingham improvement.
• Improving connectivity between port facilities and renewables development sites.
• Allocation and development of strategic employment sites, including Europarc.
• Address quality of place issues to attract and retain skilled workers, including Grimsby town centre.

/

• Reinstate services from Hull to Manchester Airport
• Improving broadband connectivity.

Supporting businesses to succeed /

• Humber LEP Growth Hub.
• SME Growth and Innovation Programme.
• Providing finance to support entrepreneurship.
• Promoting and supporting research collaboration in priority sectors.

A great place to live and visit /

• Sustainable urban extension for Grimsby.
• Regeneration of Cleethorpes. promenade

/

• Support plan-led housing growth.
• Ensure schemes delivered under Affordable Homes Programme.
• Adapt existing homes in response to climate change, to improve energy efficiency and flood resilience.

A skilled and productive workforce /

• Environmental Logistics Learning Hub (Grimsby Institute).
• CATCH Energy Offshore to support O&M providers based in Port of Grimsby.

/

• Humber Skills Fund
• Apprenticeship Hub.
• Humber Energy Campus/Humber University Technical College.
• Provide support to skills providers to introduce new courses.

Flood risk and environmental management /

• Maximise benefits of flood defence schemes by linking them with other proposals such as the Grimsby. Docks Flood Defence Scheme.

/

• Support studies to inform flood defence schemes.
• Continue with the Humber Flood Risk Management Strategy.
• Promote sustainable development.

2.2.2.Greater Lincolnshire LEP Strategic Economic Plan

Aims and vision

The Greater Lincolnshire SEP sets out a range of actions which collectively area projected to increase the value of the area’s economy by £3.2 billion, assist 22,000 businesses and create 13,000 jobs (assuming continued award of EU funding). . In doing so, it targets six main sectors:

Agri-food.

Manufacturing.

Visitor economy.

Renewables.

Ports and logistics.

Health and care.

The first three sectors listed above are identified by the LEP as ‘existing’ sectors whilst the latter three are highlighted as ‘emerging/developing’.

The plan identifies a range of key challenges to growth in the area as including:

Under-developed road and rail infrastructure, constraining supply chains, labour markets and access to markets.

Investment in flood defences and water management is required to unlock economic and housing growth.

Housing growth and community services provision is required to support economic growth.

Youth unemployment and low skills levels in parts of Greater Lincolnshire constrain growth and limit the economic opportunities available to young people.

Priority Sectors

Various actions are proposed in the SEP to support existing and expanding sectors, many of which overlap with NEL’s priority sectors. These are presented in Table 2-2

Table 2-2Actions proposed for sectoral support in Greater Lincolnshire SEP

Sector / Actions
Agri-food /

• Drive product and processinnovation through the development of innovation hubs, including Humber Seafood Institute.
• Invest in infrastructure, including at the Port of Immingham.

• Increase supply of high-quality food-grade industrial accommodation.
• Build capacity and competitiveness of supply chains to address issues around energy costs, water resource management and workforce skills.
• Develop skills base to facilitate access to apprenticeships and employment opportunities.
• Local Growth Fund priorities include expanding Europarc through infrastructure investment, in collaboration with Humber LEP.

Manufacturing & engineering /

• Maintain supply of high-quality serviced employment sites and premises across Greater Lincolnshire, including promoting Enterprise Zones in NEL.
• Encourage employer engagement in apprenticeships and workforce developments through de-risking investment in training.
• Unlock development and housing land, including in Grimsby.
• Unlock development of key sites on the South Humber Bank to support the renewable and chemicals sectors.
• Rail gauge investment between Immingham and the East Coast mainline at Doncaster to enhance rail freight capacity.

Visitor economy /

• Work with public and private sector partners to extend network of visitor attractions across Greater Lincolnshire.
• Simplify and coordinate online presence in partnership with Visit England.
• Enhance quality of visitor experience through supporting the development of the visitor accommodation/hospitality sectors and delivering investment in local visitor infrastructure.
• Develop customer service and other skills of workforce.
• Resort renaissance programme for Cleethorpes, including providing a site for major hotel, conference and leisure developments and integrating public-realm improvements with upgrades to flood defences.
• Improve frequency of services between Doncaster and Cleethorpes.
• Development of Ice Factory in Grimsby as major new attraction.

Low carbon /

• Raise awareness of supply chain opportunities and build capacity and capability of local firms to secure contracts.

• Work with skills providers to deliver increased low carbon apprenticeships and training opportunities.
• Support research and development and technology transfer.
• Develop the Humber Energy Campus and CATCH facility.
• Deliver an integrated supply-chain development programme.
• Improve infrastructure at the Port of Grimsby Enterprise Zone.

Ports & logistics /

• Port of Grimsby access and employment programme.
• Rail gauge investment between Immingham and Doncaster.
• Humberside Airport surface access improvements.

Proposed Actions and Developments