IAN POTTER ASSOCIATES 13th January 2012
Specialist Agricultural Quota & Entitlement Brokers
Telephone 01335 324594 Fax 01335 324584
Website www.ipaquotas.co.uk Email Issue No. 655
Today / Last Week / Change / 4 Weeks Ago / 1 Year agoClean / 0.25ppl / 0.25ppl / - / 0.30ppl / 0.25pl
AMPE / 29.90ppl / 31.10ppl / -1.2ppl / 31.10ppl / 28.10ppl
MCVE / 32.73ppl / 32.68ppl / +0.05ppl / 32.68ppl / 29.65ppl
Producers in E & W / 10,755 / 10,791 / 11,102
£ : $ / £1.53 / £1.55 / -£2 / £1.55 / £1.58
£ : € / £1.20 / £1.21 / -£1 / £1.19 / £1.19
Crude Oil / £111 / £113 / -£2 / £105 / £90
Wheat / £151 / £148 / +£3 / £146 / £200
Soya meal / £267 / £266 / +£1 / £249 / £322
(Commodity and currency prices – source BOCM Pauls)
Milk Quota Available
413,830 litres 3.72% @ 0.25ppl neg
644,416 litres 3.92% @ 0.20ppl
1,175,650 litres 4.03% @ 0.25ppl
Should you require any information or prices on available milk quota, please contact
Wiseman shares rally as Muller Dairy takeover bid is confirmed
At noon today a call from a city share analyst and regular bulletin reader alerted Ian to the fact Wisemans shares had jumped 30p and were still rising. Thursday’s price closed at 244p, but just after 1pm on Friday they were 290p, representing a 46p jump or close to a 20% lift. As this bulletin went to print the price had risen to 331p (+87p) or +3% equal to a 36% rise in a day.
In accordance with the disclosure rules, the Wiseman board issued a statement to the city confirming that discussions involving a cash offer for the business were ongoing with Muller Dairy UK Limited. Muller must decide by February 10th if it wants to make a bid.
The value of Wisemans on Thursday was around £173 million and at 330p had risen by almost £61 million to £234 million.
It is widely believed that Muller taking over Wisemans would revolutionise the liquid milk business. “Little fruit or crunchy chocolate corners on the sides of modern polybottles is just what’s needed,” a senior dairy analyst is not reported as saying. If a deal is concluded it will be the Germans and English taking over the Scots!
Another thought is that perhaps if First Milk had retained its full stake in Wisemans it would have had more of a say in whether the takeover goes ahead
Production Figures
December milk deliveries for the UK provisionally stand at 1.095 billion litres, which represents a 23.3 million (+2.2%) increase on December 2010 production. Cumulative production for the year (not butterfat adjusted) is 10.118 billion litres, an increase of 72.6 million litres (+0.7%) on 2010.
Butterfats continue to head rapidly North with December’s weighing in at 4.20% compared to 4.15% in December 2010 and year to date butterfat is up 11 points to 4.04% (2010 was 3.93%).
Tesco ditch First Milk deal
For almost three years Tesco have had First Milk on the hook with the carrot for the retail giant to acquire the co-op’s existing Campbeltown Creamery on the Mull of Kintyre. Having sold the site the plan was to proceed with ScotGov backed plans to build a new purpose built state of the art creamery. Tesco have now decided to drop the deal, which means no new out of town creamery for Campbeltown.
As a result First Milk have announced plan B, which is to invest in the existing site and move forward, forgetting what might have been if the Tesco deal had been cemented. ScotGov were very supportive over the move to a new site and are equally supportive over the upgrading plan with a £2m contribution.
The original deal was announced in July 2009 when the intention was to build a new state of the art creamery with funding coming from the sale of the existing site to Tesco, First Milk together with £3.9m from ScotGov.
The creamery is the heart of the remaining 38 Mull of Kintyre dairy farmers’ future plans as well as the 100 plus jobs it supports. Whilst it is a disappointment not to see a new creamery built, dairy farmers and those employed should be delighted that the investment is going ahead and that First Milk has confidence in the future potential the Mull of Kintyre brand.
NFU election runners, riders and handicaps declared
The bi-annual NFU top table office holders’ election’s are usually good fodder for speculation and spice and this year is no exception.
These are the declared runners and riders:
President Peter Kendall.
Deputy President Meurig Raymond, Paul Temple, Kevin Attwood
Vice President Gwyn Jones, Paul Temple, Alistair Mackintosh, Kevin Attwood, Adam Quinney, Jonathan Brant, Anthony Rew
One of the main talking points amongst farmers and some NFU Council members is the apparent u-turn by Meurig Raymond not to challenge Peter Kendall for the top position. Two years ago Raymond left the Council in no doubt that if he was re-elected as Deputy President he would challenge Kendall for the top slot in 2012. Raymond has stated that it was a difficult decision not to challenge, but that he did not believe he had sufficient support to lead the NFU at this point in time.
This leaves Kendall unopposed and under little, if any, pressure in next month’s elections, which is a pity because a bit of competition would have been healthy for the NFU, for democracy, and gossip columnists alike.
Technically Kendall still requires at least 75% of the ballot votes, which should be a breeze, however, many years ago one President failed and the elections were thrown open for nominations. It’s unlikely, but possible.
Also note that Raymond requires 75% of the votes on the final ballot and Gwyn Jones will require 50% of the votes to retain his position.
So Raymond is content to do a further two years, which would take his total run as No. 2 to Kendall to an eight year span with the aspiration to stand for President in 2014, assuming Kendall stands down. But that is not automatic.
Some have commented with CAP Reform it’s perhaps an advantage not to have a Welshman in charge at the NFU. Others have attempted to compare Raymond and Kendall with Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, suggesting they have agreed a cosy pact, which will end as it did for Gordon Brown.
If the status quo prevails and all three retain their top table positions it may be deemed safe, but it equally smacks of a stagnating organisation lacking serious candidates prepared to challenge for the top job and that’s not healthy. Only Derek Mead and David Handley have dared to challenge Kendall in recent years. Perhaps one or more of the fresh faces up for election will succeed and become a future presidential candidate. The NFU Council needs to look 4, 6, 8, 10 years ahead for its leaders.
Farmers weekly are running their own poll where the votes are as follows:
Deputy President Meurig Raymond 53%, Paul Temple 33%, Kevin Attwood 14%.
If that were to be replicated in Council Paul Temple would be the next Deputy President.
Vice President Gwyn Jones and Adam Quinney both in joint 2nd place 13%. Paul Temple in front with 34%.
Medina take the honours
Congratulations to milk processor Medina who scooped the Best Family Business Award at the 2011 Food & Farming Industry Award Ceremony.