A G E N C Y
for monitoring and forecasting
emergency situations
of the VNII GOChS
121532 Moscow, 7 Davydkovskaya St
(095) 449-83-44, 443-83-15 (Fax) / To:
academician Kuznetsov O.L. President of RANS
7.07.99 No. 4D/275
Dear Oleg Leonidovich,
Academician of RANS Grabovoi Grigory Petrovicn, by using the formula of general reality and wave synthesis created by him for preventive forecasting of earthquakes and catastrophes, has converted the crystal module of the forecast into a digital form. Statistical data on earthquakes presented by the Central experimental-methodical expedition of the geophysical department of the Russian Academy of Sciences were used in the capacity of actual material proving that the said module makes it possible to realize preventive forecast of earthquakes. The tests of the instrument digital model were carried out with past and future earthquakes. With the past earthquakes it was done by transferring earthquake initial parameters of the model before the beginning of the earthquakes. With the future earthquakes this was conducted by programmed processing the electronic map of the locality and extrapolation data of the Earth surface monitoring from satellites allotted for this purpose by the VNII GOChS. The data of 1000 registered earthquakes for the period from January 7, 1901 to July 4, 1918 (the data are given in appendices on 18 sheets) were used as actually occurred earthquakes of the past. For earthquakes of the future in July 1999 the confirmation of a forecast was obtained for all regions where the programming processing of the locality electronic map was conducted (for example, for the period from 09 h to 03 min to 19 h 26 min on July 3, 1999 earthquakes were confirmed in the regions of Kamchatka at 09 h 03 min (M 5.1), Japan at 09 h 30 min (M 6.2), Alaska at 19 h 26 min (M 5.4), and for the period from 5 h 38 min to 13 h 32 min on July 4 1999 earthquakes were confirmed in the regions of Philippines at 05 h 38 min (M 4.8), Kamchatka at 13 h 32 min (M 4.0). In all cases full confirmation of the forecast phase was obtained. At present, to transfer the parameters of the crystal module in digital form into the form of a microprocessor operating for a long time interval without any additional calculations, it is necessary to conduct the transfer of laser radiation characteristics from a physical source into a digital from.
Best Regards(signature) Shakhramanian M.A.
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