UNFPA WorkshopPopulation Dynamics in East Timor
Population Dynamics in East Timor
Manuel Mendonca
Director
Statistics Office
Ministry of Planning and Finance
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
Introduction
The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste has set itself the task of improving the living conditions of the poorest members of the community. Poverty reduction is one of the central objectives of the country’s first development strategy released soon after our Independence in May 2002.
To gather baseline information on living conditions, and in particular those of the poor, a Poverty Assessment was initiated in late 2000. The assessment has been led by the then East Timor Public Administration (ETPA) with the support of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank. Within ETPA, responsibility for the Poverty Assessment rested with the Planning Commission and the Statistics Office.
The Poverty Assessment had two principal aims:
to provide up-to date information on the nature, causes and consequences of poverty; and
to build the capacity of the East Timorese in the monitoring and analysis of poverty.
It comprised three activities a suco-level survey (a suco is a village), a household-level survey and a participatory potential assessment. Field work commenced in December 2000 and was completed in late 2001.
This paper presents some of the findings from this work on population issues in East Timor.
The first section describes the surveys drawn on in preparing this paper. A snapshot of the current population is then provided. The following section explores the extent of the movement of the population following the violence of 1999 with a view to providing a perspective on the extent of population displacement in East Timor. The work of the Poverty Assessment has provided detailed information on regional inequalities, and the possible impact of these inequalities on population dynamics is then discussed. The final section presents some concluding thoughts on future work required to better understand demographic issues in East Timor.
The Collection of Demographic Data in East Timor
Population is best estimated from a census that counts every individual living in an area. But funding constraints have meant that it has not been possible to yet conduct a population census in East Timor. However, information has been collected from interviews with traditional leaders. This information was collected through the conduct of the suco and household surveys of the Poverty Assessment.
The Survey of Sucos in Timor Lorosa’e (SSTL) was designed to provide a consistent data source on the characteristics of each suco in East Timor (a suco is a village). The main output of the SSTL is an inventory of key characteristics of each suco.
To prepare the inventory, data were collected on: the population and number of families at an aldeia (settlement) level; access to infrastructure (electricity, water supply, irrigation, roads, markets); the availability of food and health and education services; the humanitarian and reconstruction programs operating in each suco; and features of the local economy.
Data were collected by the Statistics Office from three individuals, which normally included the suco chief and a local teacher. In some sucos, the information was collected from health-care providers, the heads or members of Community Empowerment Project (a World Bank initiative) councils or aldeia chiefs.
The Timor Lorosa’e Living Standards Measurement Survey (TLLSMS) was primarily designed to derive a poverty profile for the country. The intention was to help identify the key characteristics of poor households, to understand the determinants of poverty, to assess constraints that prevent poorer households from improving their living standards and to evaluate the impact of public projects on the poor. The survey also provided detailed information on the socio-economic characteristics of East Timor more generally, including those people that are not considered to be poor.
In the course of this survey, 1,800 East Timorese households were interviewed across 100 sucos selected to provide a representation of conditions in key regions of East Timor. Data were collected on household demographics, housing and assets, household expenditures and income, agriculture and the labour market, basic health and eduction, subjective perceptions of poverty and social capital.
Important Characteristics of the Population of East Timor
The population in the first half of 2001 was estimated as 787,340 persons. Notable characteristics of this population are that
females account for 49 per cent of the population.
the estimated number of households is almost 170,000, such that on average a household was estimated to contain 4.7 persons.
East Timor is not just a young nation, the East Timorese are also a young people. One in two Timorese are below the age of 15 and only 2 per cent of the population are more than 64 years old.
24 per cent of the population live in urban areas.
there is considerable variability in population characteristics across regions, such as population density, household size and the female to male ratio (see Figures 1 to 3).
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UNFPA WorkshopPopulation Dynamics in East Timor
Figure 1The Population by Suco
Total population reported to be present in the Suco in early 2001
Figure 2Average Household Size
Figure 3The Female:Male Sex Ratio
By population the largest of the 13 districts are Dili and Baucau, accounting for 15 and 13 per cent of the population, respectively, while the smallest districts of Aileu, Manufahi and Manatuto each account for less than 5 per cent of the population.
This estimate of the total population and its distribution is one of considerable importance. Not only does it provide information important for the distribution of public resources, but comparisons of the current and pre-violence estimated population provides an indication of the number of East Timor still in West Timor (an issue returned to below). Accordingly care was taken to check the estimate of the population.
It was possible to compare the estimated total population from a civil registration process implemented in the lead-up to the election of East Timor’s first independent Parliament in August 2001. This registration process provided an initial estimate of the total population of approximately 750,000 to 760,000 (as of late July 2001). However, as a result of the claims from an ‘exhibition and challenge period’ for an electoral registration, another 26,300 voters were identified. Based on a previous estimate of the ratio of voters to population of 51.9 per cent, this provided an estimate of the total population of 788,000. This is very close to the estimate derived from the Poverty Assessment surveys.
It is worth noting one of the interesting technical features of the data collection process.
One of the initial motivations for the conduct of the SSTL was the estimation of the population for the purposes of preparing the sample frame for a household survey. Once the sample frame of the household survey was selected, a household listing exercise was undertaken to select the individual households to be included in the household survey.[1]
This made it possible to assess the accuracy of data collected from the SSTL on the population (split by females and males) and number of families against data collected from the household listing. The data on population and families collected from SSTL normally drew on the population lists held by the suco chief, whereas the household listing process was more intensive and can be expected to have a very high level of accuracy.[2]
One of the attractions of these comparisons was that it allowed an assessment of the relative accuracy of the two methodologies for data collection. Data collection from suco representatives was relatively low cost and, if it could be established that the approach was of an acceptable accuracy, it could be usefully drawn on in future data collection work.
Substantial differences were found between the data collected from SSTL and the household listing. It was concluded that the data from the SSTL normally over-estimated the true population, on average by the order of 10 per cent (note that the population estimates presented above have incorporated an adjustment for this error).
A review of the collection methodology and discussion with field teams led to the identification of a number of reasons for the difference. Perhaps the most important was that in practice the SSTL appears to have collected data on those that ‘belong’ to an aldeia, rather than those that were ‘normally eating and sleeping’ in the aldeia at the time (the definition of ‘living’ that was employed in the household listing). Belonging can encompass those that are registered in an aldeia but are currently living somewhere else, but have yet to have their registration ‘transferred’ to this new address. This unexpected interpretation of the questionnaire highlights the difficulties that can be faced in collecting even the most fundamental demographic data.
The Impact of the Violence of 1999
In the destruction following the 1999 referendum, many families lost their main economic assets, housing and livestock. About one in three households suffered from damages to their buildings. The impact was largest in the areas closest to the West Timor border (Bobonaro, Cova Lima, Oecussi and Liquica), where it affected three out of five households. About two out of three houses destroyed have been at least partially reconstructed. Some of the eastern districts also report the largest number of families still displaced.
The violence of 1999 resulted in significant loss of livestock. The number of animals owned per household at end 2001 was still below the 1999 level for all main animal species. The shortfall ranged from 30 per cent for pigs, horses, and buffalos, to 50 per cent for chicken, to 70 per cent for cows.
This high level of damage and destruction led to the movement of a large share of the population.
Estimating the impact on the population is made more difficult by the weaknesses in population data under the previous administration. The last census was for 1990, and the number of deaths during the 1990s and the considerable population displacement over 1999 and before was been difficult to track. One estimate pointed to the population haven fallen from 888,000 in 1998 to 716,000 by November 1999, with around 175,000 people having left East Timor for refugee camps with another 200,000 people displaced within East Timor.[3]
The worst affected districts were Ambeno, Cova Lima and Bobonaro. In October 1999 international peacekeeping forces only found 3,000 people in Ambeno out of a normal population of 57,000; as of November Bobonaro’s population was reported as 16,000 compared to a normal population of 87,000; and the population of Cova Lima was estimated at 15,000 in November compared to a normal population of 60,000. Population displacement was also significant in other areas. For example, 20 per cent of the Ainaro population was reported as displaced in November while in Lautem 2,500 people out of a population of approximately 52,000 had been deported.[4]
It was estimated that approximately 18,000 families were still displaced as of the first half of 2001, meaning they had yet to return to the aldeia they lived in before the violence of 1999.
As noted above, the population was estimated to have risen to around 790,000 by the first half of 2001 as people returned to East Timor, bringing the total population to around 90 per cent of its estimated pre-crisis level. But as shown in Figure 4, there is estimated to be considerable variability across the districts in the size of the current population relative to is previous levels.
Figure 4A Comparison of the Current and 1997 Population
(Note this figure is based on old data and needs to be updated)
Source:Estimates derived from the Suco Survey Timor Lorosae and the household listing for the Timor Lorosae Living Standards Measurement Survey and East Timor in Figures, 1997.
Population Pressures Created by Regional Inequality
East Timor shares with many countries a strong rural-urban divide. In particular, estimates of the extent of poverty found that only 14 per cent of the population in the major urban centres of Dili/Baucau were ‘consumption’ poor compared to 41 per cent for the nation as a whole. It was found that 85 per cent of the poor live in rural areas. It is estimated that almost 300,000 rural people are poor, with less than 50,000 poor people living in urban areas.
There is also considerable variability between districts and within districts in the standard of public services such as education and health services. The community has highlighted the importance of good health and education services to alleviating poverty and the unequal distribution of services can be expected to, if continued, result in unequal development, with some areas remaining poorer than others.
The population can be expected to respond to these inequalities with a drift to the areas offering more opportunity and facilities. Inevitably, this means a drift to the main urban areas of Dili and Baucau.
Conclusion
There remain strong pressures on the population in East Timor. In particular, there is the need to
Help assist those remaining displaced persons that wish to return to their homes. There are still large numbers of people in West Timor and there remains displacement within East Timor itself.
Manage the potentially rapid growth of the population as large young cohorts move through the reproductive ages. In particular, the welfare of children, the young, and mothers needs to be given priority.
Orient Government policy and expenditure to try and limit the large urban-rural divide that is evident from most social indicators. In particular, it is important that the Government needs to focus on the equitable delivery of basic social services, the provision of essential infrastructure and the promotion of opportunities.
To better understanding these population pressures and how well they are being managed by the Government requires timely and rich data on the population and its characteristics. Important first steps have being made through the Poverty Assessment.
But the conduct of a population census is now a high priority and a system of the ongoing monitoring of population changes is important. This is important to both better plan Government activities but also to assess their impact and find ways of improving their contribution.
Annex AKey Population Statistics
Table A.1Key Population Statistics (for the first half of 2001)
Unit / East TimorPopulation / persons / 787,340
- share female / per cent / 49
- share male / per cent / 51
Population per aldeia
- average / persons / 337
- lower decile a / persons / 129
- upper decile b / persons / 604
Number of households / families / 167,435
Number of families still displaced c / families / 18,391
aThat is, one in ten aldeias reported a number lower than shown.
bThat is, one in ten aldeias reported a number higher than shown.
cNumber of families yet to return to the aldeia they lived in before the violence of 1999. A family is counted as returned when only some members have returned.
Source:Suco Survey Timor Lorosae
Table A.2Population by District (for the first half of 2001)
Population (persons) / Population density / Number ofFemales / Males / Total / (persons per square kilometre) / households
01 / Aileu / 15,615 / 16,211 / 31,827 / 44 / 6,780
02 / Ainaro / 22,410 / 22,682 / 45,093 / 56 / 9,683
03 / Baucau / 50,721 / 50,796 / 101,517 / 68 / 23,490
04 / Bobonaro / 35,079 / 34,853 / 69,932 / 51 / 15,431
05 / Cova Lima / 24,178 / 25,056 / 49,234 / 40 / 10,788
06 / Dili / 57,080 / 63,394 / 120,474 / 324 / 19,944
07 / Ermera / 43,630 / 44,785 / 88,415 / 119 / 18,112
08 / Liquica / 22,461 / 23,114 / 45,575 / 83 / 9,374
09 / Lautem / 26,739 / 26,727 / 53,467 / 31 / 12,713
10 / Manufahi / 18,774 / 19,842 / 38,616 / 29 / 7,591
11 / Manatuto / 17,652 / 17,793 / 35,446 / 21 / 8,136
12 / Oecussi / 23,307 / 21,735 / 45,042 / 55 / 11,355
13 / Viqueque / 31,289 / 31,415 / 62,704 / 35 / 14,038
East Timor / 388,935 / 398,405 / 787,340 / 54 / 167,435
Source:Suco Survey Timor Lorosae
Documents
ADB, ETTA, UNDP and World Bank, 2001, The 2001 Survey of Sucos: Initial Analysis and Implications for Poverty Reduction, October.
ADB, ETPA, UNDP and World Bank, 2002, East Timor Participatory Poverty Assessment, March.
ADB, 2000, East Timor Rapid Assessment of Economic and Social Conditions, June.
Economic Affairs and Statistics, 2002, The Suco Database, February.
Joint Assessment Mission, 1999, Agriculture Background Paper, East Timor, Building a Nation, A Framework for Reconstruction and Development, November.
World Bank, 2002, East Timor – Poverty Brief, July.
______, 2002, Characteristics of Poverty, July.
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[1]The methodology underlying the selection of the sample frame and the conduct of the household listing is documented in a separate Poverty Assessment report, the “Timor Lorosa’e Household Survey Sampling Design and Implementation”, May 2001 available from the Census and Statistics Unit, ETTA.
[2]The practice of maintaining population lists at the aldeia and suco level was in place under the previous administration. It is understood that most population lists drawn on by the SSTL were created at the request of the CNRT in early 2000, and have generally been updated to account for births, deaths and returnees.
[3]See ADB (2000), p.3.
[4]Joint Assessment Mission (1999b), pp.9-11,