Online Appendix table A. Impact of political factors on grant allocation, panel analysis – full model
(1) / (2) / (3) / (4) / (5) / (6)Within effects
Vote for government / 0.339(0.09)*** / 0.309(0.09)*** / -0.026(0.10) / -0.068(0.11)
Turnout (national) / 0.196(0.35) / 0.329(0.36) / 0.20(0.36) / 0.352(0.36)
Vote for government x Turnout (national) / 2.312(1.23)* / 2.744 (1.23)**
Electoral year (national) / 0.225(0.03)*** / 0.222(0.03)*** / 0.234(0.03)*** / 0.229(0.03)***
EPI (national) / -1.08(0.37)*** / -0.94(0.38)** / -1.24 (0.37)*** / -1.07(0.38)***
Mayor for government / 0.283(0.03)*** / 0.284 (0.03)*** / 0.259(0.03)*** / 0.263(0.03)***
Turnout (local) / -0.231(0.27) / -0.231(0.27) / -0.232(0.27) / -0.214(0.27)
Mayor for government x Turnout (local) / -0.10(0.58) / -0.069(1.22)
Electoral year (local) / 0.063(0.03)** / 0.063(0.03)* / 0.119(0.03)*** / 0.119(0.03)***
EPI (local) / -0.54(0.13)*** / -0.54(0.13)*** / -0.51 (0.13)*** / -0.50 (0.13)***
Rightist government / 0.156 (0.04)*** / 0.177 (0.04)*** / 0.088 (0.03)*** / 0.089 (0.03)** / 0.094 (0.04)** / 0.118 (0.04)***
Fiscal capacity (log), lagged / 0.115 (0.04)*** / 0.112 (0.04)*** / 0.108 (0.04)*** / 0.108 (0.04)*** / 0.103 (0.04)*** / 0.098 (0.04)**
Income (log), lagged / 1.854 (0.24)*** / 1.867 (0.24)** / 1.802 (0.25)*** / 1.8 (0.25)*** / 1.87 (0.24)*** / 1.885 (0.24)***
Δ GDP / 1.477 (0.55)*** / 1.414 (0.55)** / 3.17 (0.55)*** / 3.177 (0.55)*** / 2.297 (0.57)*** / 2.227 (0.58)***
Unemployment, lagged / -1.101 (0.47)** / -1.04 (0.47)** / -1.036 (0.47)** / -1.035 (0.47)** / -0.99 (0.47)** / -0.916 (0.47)*
Population (log) / -0.92 (0.37)** / -0.846 (0.37)** / -0.85 (0.37)** / -0.853 (0.37)** / -0.847 (0.37)** / -0.761 (0.37)**
Density / 0.002 (0.001) / 0.001 (0.001) / 0.001 (0.001) / 0.001 (0.001) / 0.002 (0.001) / 0.001 (0.001)
Activity / -0.772 (0.68) / -0.682 (0.68) / -0.953 (0.68) / -0.948 (0.68) / -0.935 (0.68) / -0.823 (0.68)
Children / 0.504 (2.24) / 0.476 (2.24) / 0.413 (2.24) / 0.417 (2.24) / 0.485 (2.23) / 0.47 (2.23)
Retirees / -3.576 (0.8)*** / -3.358 (0.8)*** / -2.52 (0.77)*** / -2.53 (0.77)*** / -3.16 (0.79)*** / -2.9 (0.8)***
Serbs / -0.448 (1.8) / -0.751 (1.81) / 0.098 (1.79) / 0.099 (1.8) / -0.056 (1.79) / -0.417 (1.8)
Education / -0.210 (0.11)* / -0.241 (0.11)** / -0.146 (0.11) / -0.147 (0.11) / -0.191 (0.11)* / -0.228 (0.12)**
Agriculture / -0.322 (0.47) / -0.354 (0.48) / -0.562 (0.47) / -0.53 (0.47) / -0.348 (0.47) / -0.282 (0.483)
ASSC / 0.505 (0.12)*** / 0.505 (0.12)*** / 0.573 (0.12)*** / 0.589 (0.12)*** / 0.549 (0.12)*** / 0.575 (0.125)***
Dalmatia / 0.314 (0.11)*** / 0.315 (0.11)*** / 0.299 (0.11)*** / 0.303 (0.11)*** / 0.232 (0.12)* / 0.234 (0.12)*
Istria / -0.696 (0.2)*** / -0.696 (0.2)*** / -0.45(0.16)*** / -0.373 (0.16)** / -0.664 (0.19)*** / -0.597 (0.19)***
Slavonia / 0.062 (0.12) / 0.061 (0.12) / -0.107 (0.12) / -0.087 (0.12) / -0.021 (0.13) / -0.012 (0.12)
Year / 0.006 (0.02) / 0.014 (0.02) / 0.0005 (0.02) / 0.0008 (0.02) / 0.006 (0.02) / 0.015 (0.02)
Constant /
6.67 (1.32)*** /
7.11 (2.3)*** /
4.88 (1.1)*** /
6.2 (1.25)*** /
5.78 (1.38)*** /
5.36 (2.42)***
Between effects
Vote for government Mean / 1.202 (0.79) / 0.17(4.21) / 1.109 (0.86) / 4.328(4.43)
Turnout (national) Mean / 1.682 (0.64)*** / 0.92(2.97) / 0.277 (0.94) / 2.334(3.05)
Vote for government x Turnout (national) Mean / 1.68(6.5) / -5.096(6.83)
Electoral year (national) Mean / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
EPI (national) Mean / -2.99 (1.06)*** / -2.93(1.07)*** / -2.864 (1.16)** / -2.497** (1.17)
Mayor for government Mean / 0.333 (0.21) / -1.99*(1.08) / 0.24 (0.23) / -1.95*(1.12)
Turnout (local) Mean / 1.352 (0.50)*** / -0.896(1.15) / 1.39 (0.75)* / -0.588(1.27)
Mayor for government x Turnout (local) Mean / 4.478**(2.05) / 4.245**(2.12)
Electoral year (local) Mean / 1.112 (0.78) / 1.096(0.78) / 1.214 (0.78) / 1.188(0.78)
EPI (local) Mean / -0.696 (0.33)** / -0.695 (0.33)** / -0.40 (0.36) / -0.465(0.36)
Rightist government / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Fiscal capacity (log) Mean, lagged / 0.112 (0.08) / 0.109 (0.08) / 0.037 (0.08) / 0.034 (0.08) / 0.047 (0.09) / 0.042 (0.09)
Income (log) Mean, lagged / 0.221 (0.13)* / 0.22 (1.33) / 0.343 (0.12)*** / 0.335 (0.12)*** / 0.319 (0.14)** / 0.321 (0.13)**
Δ GDP Mean / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Unemployment Mean, lagged / 0.848 (0.61) / 0.846 (0.61) / 1.098 (0.62)* / 1.034 (0.62)* / 1.026 (0.62)* / 0.972 (0.62)
Population (log) Mean / -0.27 (0.05)*** / -0.27 (0.05)*** / -0.211 (0.05)*** / -0.212 (0.05)*** / -0.222 (0.05)*** / -0.219 (0.06)***
Density Mean / -0.001 (0.00)** / -0.001 (0.00)** / -0.001 (0.00) / -0.001 (0.00)* / -0.001 (0.00)* / -0.001 (0.00)*
Activity Mean / 0.952 (1.94) / 0.973 (0.19) / 1.112 (1.18) / 0.942 (1.18) / 1.09 (1.2) / 0.932 (1.2)
Children Mean / -1.87 (2.08) / -1.813 (2.09) / -1.155 (2.02) / -1.26 (2.02) / -1.13 (2.09) / -1.294 (2.1)
Retirees Mean / 2.288 (1.1)** / 2.36 (1.14)** / 2.57 (1.09)** / 2.66 (1.09)** / 2.54 (1.12)** / 2.43 (1.15)**
Serbs Mean / 0.115 (0.42) / 0.125 (0.43) / -0.164 (0.43) / -0.27 (0.43) / -0.12 (0.44) / -0.141 (0.45)
Education Mean / -0.123 (0.08) / -0.126 (0.08) / -0.204 (0.08)** / -0.203 (0.08)** / -0.117 (0.08) / -0.116 (0.08)
Controls / Yes / Yes / Yes / Yes / Yes / Yes
Observations / 6600 / 6600 / 6600 / 6600 / 6600 / 6600
Municipality variance / 0.55 (0.038)*** / 0.56 (0.038)*** / 0.56 (0.038)*** / 0.56 (0.038)*** / 0.55 (0.038)*** / 0.55 (0.038)***
Year variance / 1.024 (0.02)*** / 1.024 (0.02)*** / 1.023 (0.02)*** / 1.023 (0.02)*** / 1.011 (0.02)*** / 1.011 (0.02)***
Loglikelihood / -9986.98 / -9985.22 / -9981.49 / -9981.48 / -9939.56 / -9937.06
∗∗∗ p<0.01, ∗∗ p<0.05, ∗ p<0.10.
Notes: Dependent variable: Grants (log). Restricted IGLS maximum likelihood estimation with within-between effects used throughout. Standard errors are shown in parentheses and are robust to heteroscedasticity.
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Online Appendix Table B. Descriptive statistics
Variable / Obs. / Mean / Std. Dev. / Min / MaxMunicipalities / 6600 / 278.073 / 160.383 / 1 / 556
Year / 6600 / 2007.5 / 3.451 / 2002 / 2013
Grants (log) / 6600 / 5.687 / 1.420 / -1.783 / 9.772
Vote for government / 6600 / 0.421 / 0.166 / 0.019 / 0.916
Turnout (national) / 6600 / 0.645 / 0.091 / 0.075 / 0.973
Electoral year (national) / 6600 / 0.249 / 0.433 / 0 / 1
EPI (national) / 6600 / 0.836 / 0.058 / 0.218 / 0.928
Mayor for government / 6600 / 0.476 / 0.499 / 0 / 1
Turnout (local) / 6600 / 0.511 / 0.099 / 0.231 / 0.993
Electoral year (local) / 6600 / 0.258 / 0.437 / 0 / 1
EPI (local) / 6600 / 0.832 / 0.162 / 0 / 1
Rightist government / 6600 / 0.667 / 0.471 / 0 / 1
Fiscal capacity (log), lagged / 6600 / 7.311 / 0.828 / 0 / 10.245
Income (log), lagged / 6600 / 7.278 / 0.335 / 5.577 / 8.028
Δ GDP / 6600 / 0.015 / 0.038 / -0.074 / 0.056
Unemployment, lagged / 6600 / 0.199 / 0.107 / 0.006 / 0.917
Population (log) / 6600 / 8.185 / 0.971 / 4.990 / 13.582
Density / 6600 / 97.632 / 205.882 / 1.775 / 3275.147
Activity / 6600 / 0.398 / 0.062 / 0.095 / 0.622
Children / 6600 / 0.158 / 0.029 / 0.017 / 0.312
Retirees / 6600 / 0.241 / 0.061 / 0.081 / 0.861
Serbs / 6600 / 0.056 / 0.141 / -0.001 / 0.976
Education / 6600 / 9.323 / 1.058 / 4.449 / 12.387
Agriculture / 6600 / 0.113 / 0.116 / 0 / 0.68
ASSC / 6600 / 0.183 / 0.387 / 0 / 1
Dalmatia / 6600 / 0.234 / 0.423 / 0 / 1
Istria / 6600 / 0.072 / 0.258 / 0 / 1
Slavonia / 6600 / 0.229 / 0.421 / 0 / 1
Mean values
Vote for government / 6600 / 0.421 / 0.067 / 0.2033 / 0.628
Turnout (national) / 6600 / 0.645 / 0.064 / 0.2763 / 0.934
Electoral year (national) / 6600 / 0.250 / 0 / 0.25 / 0.25
EPI (national) / 6600 / 0.836 / 0.045 / 0.532 / 0.886
Mayor for government / 6600 / 0.477 / 0.197 / 0 / 0.833
Turnout (local) / 6600 / 0.511 / 0.086 / 0.322 / 0.907
Electoral year (local) / 6600 / 0.258 / 0.044 / 0.25 / 0.5
EPI (local) / 6600 / 0.832 / 0.132 / 0 / 0.994
Rightist government / 6600 / 0.666 / 0 / 0.667 / 0.667
Fiscal capacity (log), lagged / 6600 / 7.287 / 0.733 / 3.184 / 9.297
Income (log), lagged / 6600 / 7.259 / 0.383 / 3.456 / 7.923
Δ GDP / 6600 / 0.015 / 0 / 0.015 / 0.015
Unemployment, lagged / 6600 / 0.199 / 0.099 / 0.036 / 0.721
Population (log) / 6600 / 8.185 / 0.968 / 5.295 / 13.574
Density / 6600 / 97.628 / 205.681 / 2.446 / 3080.232
Activity / 6600 / 0.399 / 0.057 / 0.098 / 0.584
Children / 6600 / 0.158 / 0.028 / 0.035 / 0.282
Retirees / 6600 / 0.241 / 0.057 / 0.113 / 0.667
Serbs / 6600 / 0.056 / 0.141 / 0 / 0.967
Education / 6600 / 9.321 / 0.915 / 5.352 / 11.684
Year / 6600 / 2007.53 / 0.291 / 2007.5 / 2011.5
Within transformations
Vote for government / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.152 / -0.574 / 0.559
Turnout (national) / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.064 / -0.492 / 0.522
Electoral year (national) / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.433 / -0.25 / 0.833
EPI (national) / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.037 / -0.393 / 0.296
Mayor for government / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.459 / -0.833 / 0.833
Turnout (local) / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.048 / -0.208 / 0.369
Electoral year (local) / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.435 / -0.6 / 0.75
EPI (local) / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.093 / -0.595 / 0.568
Rightist government / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.471 / -0.8 / 0.5
Fiscal capacity (log), lagged / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.427 / -7.391 / 2.576
Income (log), lagged / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.139 / -0.683 / 0.387
Δ GDP / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.038 / -0.089 / 0.052
Unemployment, lagged / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.039 / -0.201 / 0.351
Population (log) / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.047 / -0.344 / 0.398
Density / 6600 / 0.000 / 8.986 / -194.904 / 194.918
Activity / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.023 / -0.165 / 0.165
Children / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.009 / -0.061 / 0.062
Retirees / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.022 / -0.395 / 0.192
Serbs / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.007 / -0.138 / 0.138
Education / 6600 / 0.000 / 0.529 / -1.942 / 1.943
Year / 6600 / 0.000 / 3.440 / -5.5 / 5.5
Interaction terms
Vote for government x Turnout (within) / 6600 / 0.002 / 0.012 / -0.167 / 0.0848
Mayor for government x Turnout (within) / 6600 / -0.002 / 0.023 / -0.246 / 0.132
Vote for government x Turnout (mean) / 6600 / 0.271 / 0.047 / 0.089 / 0.457
Mayor for government x Turnout (mean) / 6600 / 0.307 / 0.131 / 0 / 0.615
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