NATURAL DISASTERS
DEFINITION: Susceptibilities to periodic natural disasters; redundancies within the supply chain infrastructure to mitigate the impact of a natural disaster; ability of general infrastructure to recover from a natural disaster; history and pattern of natural disasters; government, police, emergency services, military preparedness (training, equipment, communications, command and control) for response to natural disasters; historical affect upon supply chain of similar disasters; probability of civil unrest developing after a natural disaster; probability of political unrest or government turnover after a natural disaster.
GUIDANCE: Natural disasters include earthquakes, floods, monsoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunami, volcanoes, droughts, wildfires, electrical storms, epidemics – variances in severity taken into account in questions
Does any part of this country lie within a major earthquake or volcanic zone? [Refer to risk map for answer]
___ No
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a low risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a low risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a medium risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a medium risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a high risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
_X__ Yes, parts of this country fall in a high risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
[1.25/7 points]
Does this country lie within a monsoon, cyclone or tropical storm path? [Refer to risk map for answer]
__X_ No
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a low risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a low risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a medium risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a medium risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a high risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a high risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
[1.25/7 points]
Is this country prone to droughts? [Refer to risk map for answer]
___ No
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a low risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected
__X_ Yes, parts of this country fall in a low risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a medium risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a medium risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a high risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a high risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
[0.5/7 points]
Is this country prone to wildfires? [Refer to risk map for answer]
___ No
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a low risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected
__X_ Yes, parts of this country fall in a low risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a medium risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a medium risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a high risk zone, but not areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
___ Yes, parts of this country fall in a high risk zone. These are areas in which this country’s supply chain would likely be affected.
[0.75/7 points]
Does this country suffer from natural hazards that impact supply chain on an annual basis? (ie. severe winters in Russia, United States, Canada, Ukraine, etc) that don’t necessarily qualify as natural disasters
__ _ No
X _(landslides)__ Yes, but the country know how to prepare for it annually and has figured out a way to keep things moving for the most part
_ __ Yes, and this country has done a moderate job in preparing each year. Limited delays and disruptions can be expected.
___ Yes, and this country is not capable of making appropriate adjustments to keep the supply chain moving. Significant and extended delays and disruptions should be expected.
[0.5/7 points]
How prepared is the government to deal with natural disasters?
___Well prepared – strong command and control, communication network, training and equipment to advanced to deal with natural disaster, government/security can exercise control over civil unrest, advanced medical facilities, training, transportation and equipment to deal with a natural disaster, capable of quick response
_x__Moderately prepared – government structures in place, training and equipment adequate to deal with natural disaster, but command and control is sketchy and government/security will likely have a difficult time in controlling civil unrest, adequate medical facilities, training, equipment, transportation and communication network to deal with natural disaster, response time is average
___ Ill prepared – decision-making authority non-existent, little to no control over civil unrest following natural disaster; command and control weak, officers are either running to save themselves or among the first to loot following a natural disaster, inadequate medical facilities, training, transportation and equipment to deal with a natural disaster
[1/7 points]
How resilient is the national supply chain infrastructure to natural disasters? (focus is on availability and proximity of primary and alternate logistics to mitigate impact of natural disaster and keep the supply chain moving)
___Country has complete redundancies in infrastructure network (air, rail, sea and truck) to ensure minimal to zero delays in supply chain due to natural disaster
__X_Country has adequate redundancies in infrastructure network – at least two alternate modes of transport to ship goods in and out and within country.
___Country has minimal redundancy, relies almost exclusively on primary infrastructure to transport goods
[1/7 points]
What’s the level of predictive and early warning capabilities for natural disasters in this country? ie. emergency broadcast system, sirens, tsunami alert center, etc.
___ Advanced – has resources, technological skill and good track record in detecting
past natural disasters
__x_ Fairly advanced – has resources, but not a stellar track record in past natural
disasters
___ Has one in the nascent stages, heavily dependent on outside support
___ No system in place
[0.5/7 points]
What’s the likelihood that the government will become the casualty of a natural disaster and the country experiences a government turnover?
___ Very unlikely - Government and security apparatus stable enough to contain civil unrest and political opposition
_ __ Small chance – Security apparatus may have its act together to contain public protest, but a natural disaster could give the opposition a fair opportunity to threaten the government’s political standing
_ x__ Moderate chance – Likelihood of civil unrest and strength of political opposition could throw the government into crisis mode
_ __ High chance – This is a highly unstable government system in which turnovers occur frequently. Fallout from a natural disaster would almost certainly kick the government out of power.
[0.25/7 points]