District area Factsheet for Cumbria Care Modernisation Consultation –

Carlisle

Demographic profile

Carlisle district is made up of twenty two wards. The total population of this district is 55,252. There are 34,150 residents of working age (16-64 years) accounting for 61.81% of the total population; 11,934 residents are aged 65+, accounting for 21.60% of the total population. (Table 1 below provides a breakdown of the Carlisle population).

Table 1: Demographic profile of Carlisle district

Carlisle district
Total population / 55,252
0-15 years / 9,168
16-64 years / 34,150
50+ years / 23,028
65+ years / 11,934
% 0-15 years / 16.59%
% 16-64 years / 61.81%
% 50+ years / 41.68%
% 65+ years / 21.60%

Source: Mid-2014 Population Estimates, Office for National Statistics

Population projections

Population forecasts are available at district level. Over the next 5 years (from 2014 to 2019) Carlisle district’s overall population will remain stable, numbers of young people (0-15 years) and numbers of older people (aged 65+) are projected to increase, however, numbers of the working age population (16-64 years) are projected to decline. By 2019, Carlisle’s older population is projected to increase by 1,937 (+8%); over 25 years (by 2039) they are projected to increase by 10,479 (+48%). (Further details can be found in Table 2 below).

Table 2: Population projections of those aged 65+ years: 2014-2019 & 2014-2039

Population / Numerical Change / Proportional Change
2014 / 2019 / 2039 / 2014-2019 / 2014-2039 / 2014-2019 / 2014-2039
England / 9,537,708 / 10,430,674 / 15,183,439 / -892,966 / -5,645,731 / 9.4 / 59.2
Cumbria / 113,155 / 122,145 / 158,255 / 8,990 / 45,100 / 7.9 / 39.9
Carlisle / 108,022 / 108,849 / 110,560 / -827 / -2,538 / 0.77 / 1.57

Source: 2014-Based SNPPs, Office for National Statistics

Life Expectancy

The average life expectancy of a male resident in the district of Carlisle is 82.5 years, above the England average of 79.1 years. The average life expectancy of a female resident in Carlisle is 78.9 years, below the England average of 83.0 years (Source: Office for National Statistics, 2009 – 2013).

Dementia

At a district level, numbers of the population predicted to have dementia in Carlisle are projected to increase, reflecting the national picture. By 2030, the number of those living with dementia in Carlisle is projected to increase by 61.7%, from 1,494 in 2014 to 2,422 in 2030. (Further details can be found in Tables 3 & 4 below).

Table 3: Total population aged 65 years and over predicted to have dementia, Cumbria and Districts, 2014 – 2030

2014 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030
Cumbria / 7,721 / 7,858 / 9,086 / 10,617 / 12,410
Allerdale / 1,486 / 1,507 / 1,762 / 2,058 / 2,371
Barrow-in-Furness / 952 / 957 / 1,079 / 1,242 / 1,464
Carlisle / 1,494 / 1,534 / 1,764 / 2,040 / 2,422
Copeland / 951 / 984 / 1,151 / 1,336 / 1,557
Eden / 907 / 921 / 1,085 / 1,268 / 1,472
South Lakeland / 1,972 / 1,990 / 2,305 / 2,651 / 3,127

Source: POPPI, 2015

Table 4: Proportional change of those aged 65 years and over predicted to have dementia, Cumbria and Districts, 2014 – 2030

2014 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030
Cumbria / 1.8% / 17.7% / 37.5% / 60.7%
Allerdale / 1.4% / 18.6% / 38.5% / 59.6%
Barrow-in-Furness / 0.5% / 13.3% / 30.5% / 53.8%
Carlisle / 2.7% / 18.1% / 36.5% / 62.1%
Copeland / 3.5% / 21.0% / 40.5% / 63.7%
Eden / 1.5% / 19.6% / 39.8% / 62.3%
South Lakeland / 0.9% / 16.9% / 34.4% / 58.6%

Source: POPPI, 2015

Occupancy

The highest bed occupancy at the end of July was in Eskdale House (26 beds occupied) and the lowest occupancy was in Petteril House (17 beds occupied).

Table 5: Occupancy and number of beds, Carlisle district, July 2016
Elizabeth Welsh House / Eskdale House / Langrigg House / Moot Lodge / Petteril House
Occupancy rate / 47.5% / 100.0% / 64.6% / 87.6% / 47.3%
Number of beds / 40 / 26 / 40 / 19 / 37

Where residents are coming from

Between April 2013 and December 2015 (where data is available) residents previous home address when admitted to Elizabeth Welsh were located in the wards areas of Botcherby, Currock, Dalston, Harraby, Morton, St Aidans and Upperby.

Those admitted to Langrigg House in the same time period had previous home addresses in the wards of Belah, Belle Vue, Burgh, Denton Holme, Harraby, Keswick (Allerdale), Morton, St. Aidans, Stanwix urban, Upperby, Wetheral and Yewdale.

Those admitted to Petteril House in the same time period had previous home addresses in the wards of Belle Vue, Botcherby, Castle, Currock, Great Corby and Geltsdale, Harraby, Morton, St Aidans and Upperby.

Maps with additional information to be added.

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