Clinton Tops Floridafavorite Sons in 2016 Race

FOR RELEASE: MARCH 21, 2013

CLINTON TOPS FLORIDAFAVORITE SONS IN 2016 RACE,

QUINNIPIACUNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;

91% BACK UNIVERSAL GUN BACKGROUND CHECKS

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has double-digit leads over either of Florida’s favorite sons, former Gov. Jeb Bush or U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, in an early look at the 2016 presidential election, according to a QuinnipiacUniversity poll released today.

By a 91 – 8 percent margin, consistent with margins found in other states surveyed by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, Florida voters support universal background checks for gun purchases. Voters in gun-owning households support universal background checks 88 – 11 percent.

Mrs. Clinton, who shows the most strength of any potential 2016 aspirant in QuinnipiacUniversity’s national polls, leads Jeb Bush 51 – 40 percent and bests Sen. Rubio 52 – 41 percent in a poll of SunshineState registered voters.

Clinton is viewed much more favorably than either man, 62 –33percent favorable for Clinton, compared to 50 – 35 percent favorable for Bush and 41 – 34percent for Rubio.

“We probably won’t know for some time whether former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2016, but if she decides to make the race, she begins with a sizable lead in a state that Republicans cannot win the White House without,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Florida voters have a very positive view of Mrs. Clinton and it’s not just Democrats who feel that way.”

Mrs. Clinton is viewed favorably by 26 percent of Republicans, not bad for a Democrat who’s had her share of battles with the GOP, and gets a 57 – 35percent favorability among the key voting group, independents. Not surprisingly, she gets 93 – 5 percent favorability among Democrats. She has a 10-point gender gap: 66 percent of women and 56 percent of men view her favorably.

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Quinnipiac University Poll/March 21, 2013 – page 2

In a head-to-head with Jeb Bush, Mrs. Clinton would get 10 percent of Republicans while he would only get 4 percent of Democrats. Independent voters are divided 42 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Bush.

President Obama remains slightly above water inFlorida, with a 50 – 45 percent job approval rating.

Gun-Control

Florida voters support 51 – 44 percent stricter statewide gun-control laws, with gun owners opposed 61 – 33 percent. Attitudes on specific gun measures are:

• 56 – 41 percent support a nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons, with gun-owners opposed 57 – 41 percent;
• 53 – 43 percent support a nationwide ban on the sale of high-capacity magazines holding more than 10 rounds, with gun-owners opposed 56 – 40 percent;
• 59 – 36 percent support placing armed police officers in schools;
• 57 – 33 percent that gun ownership in Floridadoes more to protect people from crime than to put them at risk;
• 60 – 31 percent say allowing people to own assault weapons makes the country more

dangerous rather than safer, with gun owners divided 44 – 44 percent.

President Barack Obama better reflects their views on guns, 44 percent of Florida voters say, while 45 percent say the National Rifle Association better reflects their views.

“Floridians’ views on guns are pretty much in line with results seen in other states surveyed by QuinnipiacUniversity,” Brown said. “Women are more likely to support restricting guns than men; blacks more than whites and Democrats more than Republicans. The idea of requiring background checks on those who want to buy guns has overwhelming support, 91 – 8 percent, in a country where getting a majority to agree on anything is often difficult.”

From March 13 – 18, QuinnipiacUniversity surveyed 1,000registered voterswith a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginiaand the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information or RSS feed, visit, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

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10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were

Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Clinton 51% 10% 92% 42% 45% 56% 44% 86% 62%

Bush 40 88 4 41 45 36 48 9 30

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 1 - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 4 1 2 3 -

DK/NA 5 1 2 11 5 6 5 1 8

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv

Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No

Clinton 47% 42% 32% 42% 38% 49% 25% 44%

Bush 45 50 60 51 53 44 66 48

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 - 1 1 2 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 3 1 3 2

DK/NA 5 5 4 7 5 6 5 5

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Clinton 52% 51% 53% 54% 51% 55% 51% 50%

Bush 39 41 39 43 39 31 45 42

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 3 1 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 1 2 6 1 1

DK/NA 6 5 5 2 5 8 2 5

11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were

Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Clinton 52% 8% 90% 47% 48% 55% 45% 88% 57%

Rubio 41 90 6 38 44 37 48 6 35

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 1 3 -

DK/NA 6 1 3 11 5 6 5 2 8

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv

Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No

Clinton 50% 42% 32% 47% 41% 49% 27% 45%

Rubio 46 49 62 47 53 44 67 48

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 - 2 1

DK/NA 3 6 4 6 4 6 3 5

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Clinton 55% 51% 52% 56% 55% 54% 53% 51%

Rubio 39 41 38 41 41 33 43 42

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 - 1 2 - 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 - - 3 - -

DK/NA 5 6 6 3 4 8 4 5

12. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Favorable 50% 87% 27% 48% 50% 50% 58% 20% 41%

Unfavorable 35 5 61 32 36 35 31 62 32

Hvn't hrd enough 13 7 11 17 13 12 9 17 25

REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 3 2 1 1

13. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Favorable 41% 81% 12% 41% 45% 38% 48% 10% 39%

Unfavorable 34 3 60 30 34 33 31 51 34

Hvn't hrd enough 24 15 26 26 20 27 20 39 25

REFUSED 1 - 2 2 1 2 1 - 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

FAVORABLE......

High Low

Mar 21 May 23 Feb 03 Aug 19 Jul 30 May 23 Apr 16

2013 2012 2011 2010 2010 2012 2009

Favorable 41 44 41 35 35 44 10

Unfavorable 34 24 17 28 24 24 11

Hvn't hrd enough 24 31 41 34 38 31 78

REFUSED 1 1 2 2 3 1 2

14. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Favorable 62% 26% 93% 57% 56% 66% 57% 88% 68%

Unfavorable 33 68 5 35 37 29 39 7 25

Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 2 4 5 2 3 5 6

REFUSED 2 2 - 3 1 2 2 - 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (*Low also 44% Jun 2007)

FAVORABLE......

High Low

Mar 21 May 22 May 1 Apr 2 Dec 5 Mar 21 Apr 2

2013 2008 2008 2008 2007 2013 2008*

Favorable 62 48 49 44 52 62 44

Unfavorable 33 43 40 45 41 33 45

Hvn't hrd enough 4 5 7 8 5 4 8

REFUSED 2 4 4 4 3 2 4

19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Approve 50% 7% 89% 46% 47% 52% 41% 95% 52%

Disapprove 45 92 7 48 48 43 56 - 32

DK/NA 5 1 4 6 5 5 3 5 16

WHITE......

COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv

Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No

Approve 44% 40% 29% 42% 38% 44% 25% 41%

Disapprove 55 56 70 56 59 53 73 58

DK/NA 1 4 1 2 3 3 1 2

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Approve 51% 49% 51% 54% 51% 54% 48% 48%

Disapprove 47 45 43 44 45 35 48 48

DK/NA 2 6 5 2 4 10 3 4

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

APPROVE......

High Low

Mar 21 Dec 19 Jun 27 Jun 21 May 23 Feb 19 Sep 22

2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2009 2011

Approve 50 54 47 47 44 64 39

Disapprove 45 42 49 49 52 23 57

DK/NA 5 4 5 4 3 13 5

28. Do you favor or oppose stricter gun control laws in Florida?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Favor 51% 23% 79% 46% 43% 57% 45% 72% 62%

Oppose 44 75 16 48 52 37 50 22 30

DK/NA 5 2 5 6 4 6 5 6 8

DENSITY...... GUN HSHOLD HAVE KIDS......

Urban Suburb Rural Yes No <18 InPubSch

Favor 55% 53% 38% 33% 66% 46% 49%

Oppose 41 42 55 61 29 50 49

DK/NA 5 5 6 5 5 4 3

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Favor 58% 48% 50% 54% 54% 46% 48% 53%

Oppose 39 47 44 44 42 49 46 41

DK/NA 4 6 6 2 4 5 5 5

TREND: Do you favor or oppose stricter gun control laws in Florida?

Mar 21 May 24

2013 2012

Favor 51 45

Oppose 44 51

DK/NA 5 5

29. Do you favor or oppose a nationwide ban on the sale of assault weapons?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Favor 56% 29% 83% 51% 47% 63% 51% 74% 67%

Oppose 41 68 14 47 51 33 46 19 32

DK/NA 3 3 3 2 2 4 3 7 1

DENSITY...... GUN HSHOLD HAVE KIDS......

Urban Suburb Rural Yes No <18 InPubSch

Favor 60% 58% 44% 41% 69% 49% 50%

Oppose 37 40 53 57 28 47 46

DK/NA 3 2 3 3 3 3 4

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Favor 64% 52% 55% 57% 60% 45% 54% 63%

Oppose 34 44 41 42 40 55 43 33

DK/NA 2 4 4 2 - - 3 4

30. Do you favor or oppose a nationwide ban on the sale of high-capacity ammunition magazines that hold more than 10 bullets?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Favor 53% 31% 75% 50% 47% 59% 50% 68% 61%

Oppose 43 65 21 48 51 37 47 25 34

DK/NA 4 3 4 2 3 4 3 6 5

DENSITY...... GUN HSHOLD HAVE KIDS......

Urban Suburb Rural Yes No <18 InPubSch

Favor 57% 55% 44% 40% 66% 46% 48%

Oppose 41 41 50 56 31 50 48

DK/NA 2 3 6 4 3 4 3

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Favor 61% 50% 51% 60% 57% 49% 51% 57%

Oppose 36 46 46 37 42 47 48 39

DK/NA 3 4 4 3 1 4 1 4

31. Do you favor or oppose requiring background checks for all gun buyers?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Favor 91% 87% 98% 89% 89% 93% 89% 96% 96%

Oppose 8 11 2 11 10 6 10 4 2

DK/NA 1 2 - - 1 1 1 - 2

DENSITY...... GUN HSHOLD HAVE KIDS......

Urban Suburb Rural Yes No <18 InPubSch

Favor 93% 92% 87% 88% 95% 90% 93%

Oppose 6 7 13 11 5 10 7

DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - - -

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Favor 91% 91% 92% 91% 97% 96% 91% 90%

Oppose 8 8 8 9 2 4 9 9

DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 1

32. Do you favor or oppose placing an armed police officer in public schools in Florida?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Favor 59% 71% 53% 58% 58% 61% 56% 63% 66%

Oppose 36 26 43 37 39 33 38 36 30

DK/NA 5 3 5 5 4 6 6 1 4

DENSITY...... GUN HSHOLD HAVE KIDS......

Urban Suburb Rural Yes No <18 InPubSch

Favor 57% 56% 71% 67% 53% 69% 70%

Oppose 39 37 26 28 43 26 29

DK/NA 4 6 3 5 4 5 1

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Favor 54% 62% 65% 52% 51% 71% 62% 53%

Oppose 42 33 30 44 45 27 34 41

DK/NA 4 5 5 5 5 2 4 6

33. Do you think that gun ownership in Florida does more to protect people from becoming victims of crime, or does more to put people's safety at risk?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Protects people 57% 77% 36% 62% 65% 49% 59% 44% 55%

Puts people at risk 33 16 50 29 27 39 32 40 33

DK/NA 10 7 14 9 7 13 9 16 12

DENSITY...... GUN HSHOLD HAVE KIDS......

Urban Suburb Rural Yes No <18 InPubSch

Protects people 55% 52% 70% 71% 44% 60% 62%

Puts people at risk 34 38 22 19 45 29 30

DK/NA 10 10 8 9 11 11 8

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Protects people 50% 60% 61% 53% 49% 61% 63% 51%

Puts people at risk 42 29 30 40 44 29 31 38

DK/NA 8 11 9 7 7 10 6 11

34. Do you think allowing citizens to own assault weapons makes the country safer or more dangerous?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Safer 31% 48% 10% 39% 39% 24% 35% 11% 20%

More dangerous 60 40 88 51 52 68 56 83 69

DK/NA 9 12 3 10 9 9 9 5 11

DENSITY...... GUN HSHOLD HAVE KIDS......

Urban Suburb Rural Yes No <18 InPubSch

Safer 26% 28% 44% 44% 19% 40% 39%

More dangerous 64 63 47 44 75 55 56

DK/NA 9 9 9 12 6 5 4

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Safer 29% 32% 30% 34% 26% 37% 35% 25%

More dangerous 62 59 62 60 64 51 57 67

DK/NA 8 9 7 7 10 12 8 7

35. Who do you think better reflects your views on guns, President Obama or the National Rifle Association?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Obama 44% 10% 75% 41% 40% 48% 40% 72% 42%

NRA 45 85 13 47 52 39 51 12 42

BOTH (VOL) 1 1 - - - 1 - - 1

NEITHER (VOL) 5 3 4 8 6 5 4 9 6

DK/NA 5 1 7 4 2 7 4 7 10

DENSITY...... GUN HSHOLD HAVE KIDS......

Urban Suburb Rural Yes No <18 InPubSch

Obama 49% 47% 31% 27% 59% 39% 38%

NRA 41 43 57 61 31 48 49

BOTH (VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1

NEITHER (VOL) 5 6 5 7 4 7 6

DK/NA 5 4 6 4 6 5 5

COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HSHOLD INC AGE IN YRS......

Yes No <50K 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+

Obama 54% 40% 40% 52% 57% 38% 44% 47%

NRA 38 49 47 43 38 46 48 42

BOTH (VOL) 2 - - - 2 - 1 -

NEITHER (VOL) 4 6 7 1 2 11 2 5

DK/NA 3 6 6 4 2 6 4 5

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