EUROSTAT / Directorate General Statistics
MINUTES
Meeting of the Seasonal Adjustment Expert Group
Monday, 7 December 2015
Luxembourg
The chair persons, Martina Hahn (Eurostat) and Henrik Schwartzlose (ECB), welcomed the participants and the new setting of the Seasonal Adjustment Expert Group with co-chairing with ECB and equal representation by NSIs and NCBs. The two reporting lines to DIME and WG General Economic Statistics will be ensuring adequate support and coordination within the ESS and the ESCB. Eurostat also welcomed the new Observer from the IMF and representatives of Eurostat Units B3, C1, C2, D4, TF.MIP and G3.
1. Approval of the agenda
The Seasonal Adjustment Expert Group (SAEG) approved the agenda.
2. JDEMETRA+: FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND DOCUMENTATION
2.1 Report by the National Bank of Belgium
Jean Palate, the leader of the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) developers’ team of JDemetra+ (JD+), presented the progress reached since the June-2015 meeting of the SAEG. Improvements have been implemented in X-12 and TRAMO-SEATS core engines of JDemetra+; bugs have been corrected. Additional tools, e.g. for benchmarking, have been further developed and fine-tuned. An upgraded version, i.e. JD+ 2.1, is planned now to be released by March 2016.
The Expert Group took note of the plans including the involvement of the Seasonal Adjustment User Group (SAUG) for the testing of future versions in particular towards the release of the JD+ 3.0 that will be presented for endorsement to the next SAEG in June 2016.
2.2 Report by Deutsche Bundesbank
Andreas Lorenz (Deutsche Bundesbank: BBk) reported about the BBk’s improvements to the X-11 core engine as well as the BBk’s project on implementing JDemetra+ for production of seasonally adjusted data. The project will be coordinated with other institutions the BBk is closely cooperating with in the area of seasonal adjustment, e.g. the NSI of Germany and the ECB. A plugin that translates X-12 specifications to JDemetra+ format and vice versa (“SpecParser”) is a key element for this implementation, given that the numerous X-12 specifications currently used by the BBk in X-12-ARIMA will have to be migrated to JDemetra+.
Andreas shared with the SAEG the BBk’s intention to contribute more to Eurostat’s JDemetra+ training courses in 2015 (eg the training for “hobby developers”) and the willingness to keep contributing, also in other related training activities in the realm of seasonal adjustment.
2.3 Reports by the Centre of Excellence and by the User Group
The work of the Seasonal Adjustment Centre of Excellence (SACE) and the SAUG was presented by Dominique Ladiray (INSEE, chair person of the SACE).
In the context of the next upgrade to JD+ 2.1 the groups will be coordinating and conducting the testing. The implementation of JD+ by NSIs has been supported by the SACE in the form of training and coaching. The SACE will continue to provide a trainer for the European Statistical Training Program (ESTP) course. The NSI of Portugal will be the next receiver, in January 2016, of an ad-hoc coaching 4-day session.
Dominique also reported about the work of the Helpdesk which has been contacted by many users. Some concerns were expressed about the use of JIRA as reporting tool. An alternative solution was identified in the use of GitHUB platform.
The output and deliverables of the SACE will be reported by Eurostat to the ESS WG on Methodology taking place on the 7th of April 2016 in Luxembourg and to the ESCB WG General Economic Statistics.
2.4 Report on JDemetra+ documentation and migration of the ECB to JD+
Sylwia Grudkowska (ECB) presented progress in the three formats of documentation, i.e. the Quick Start, the User Guide and the Reference Manual. The new version of the Reference Manual was released on 6 December. It is planned that the documentation updated to the JD+ 2.1 will be released together with JD+ 2.1.
Henrik Schwartzlose (ECB) presented tentative ECB plans to migrate to JD+ during 2016; still subject to decision by management expected to be taken in January 2016. The migration will concern different statistical domains coordinated by the ECB Directorate General Statistics. The SAEG took note of the plans and expressed support for the ECB migration to JD+.
2.5 Eurostat migration to JD+: state of the art
Dario Buono (Eurostat), supported by representatives of the Eurostat’s respective statistical areas, presented the state of the art regarding the implementation of JD+ by Eurostat. Sector Accounts uses JD+ in production since October 2015. STS is planning to start in March 2016. Labour Market plans to do so in the first half of 2016. GFS and BoP will follow by the end of 2016. National Accounts is currently using JD+ 1.2.0 and will migrate to JD+ 2.0 as soon as the compatibility (and the batch mode processing) of the benchmarking module will be made available.
The SAEG took note of the plans and expressed support for the Eurostat migration to JD+.
3. OFFICIAL RELEASE OF JDEMETRA+ AND ITS PLUG-IN: FOLLOW-UP
3.1 Migration to JDemetra+ in production of official statistics: roadmap
Duncan Elliott (ONS) presented the work conducted on behalf of the SACE towards the establishment of a roadmap providing guidance for organisations contemplating the migration to JD+. As such it could list arguments for why to migrate as well as highlighting the most important considerations producers should take into account when preparing the migration. Training, testing and communication were highlighted as key elements of the process of switching. The guidance of migrating to JD+ also emphasises the revision issue when choosing the time for switch. For this and for other issues concerning the migration a reference to the ESS Guidelines on Seasonal Adjustment is provided.
The SACE will continue its work on the document, which upon completion would become part of the documentation available for JDemetra+ on the CROS-portal. It shall be finalised by the end of the year 2015 and it will serve the purposes of informing and guiding all interested stakeholders including the IMF and the OECD.
3.2 Quality Report and ESMS metadata plug-in
Dominique Ladiray presented the work done so far for the Quality Report Plug-in. The objective is to put as many quality indicators as possible in the same matrix (a csv file) by extending the demetra_m.csv file currently being produced in the output of JD+. This first step is important for at least 2 reasons:
· This is a good exercise to learn how to develop a plug-in (IT aspects).
· This complete matrix will be used in statistical studies on the optimal choice of quality indicators.
The next step will be for SACE members to comment/extend the list of indicators. Feedback is to be provided directly to Dominique by the end of February 2016.
This matrix is for the Quality Assessment of the seasonal adjustment process but also for the Quality Report that is expected to be in line with the ESMS requirements.
4. METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES
4.1 New SA chapter of IMF Handbook on Quarterly National Accounts (by IMF)
Marco Marini (IMF) presented the current work carried out by the IMF on the updating of the IMF Handbook for Quarterly National Accounts with a particular focus on the chapter on Seasonal Adjustment where it is envisaged to include a box on JD+ as recommended software to be used for training purposes.
The SAEG was invited to contribute to the revision work by June 2016. It welcomed the reference to JD+.
4.2. Endorsement of plug-in for temporal disaggregation and Benchmarking – brainstorming
The group discussed the treatment of plug-ins. In terms of benchmarking it was suggested that Eurostat’s JEcotrim may become the single plug-in for this purpose and named "Temporal Disaggregation and Benchmarking" plug-in.
More general aspects of the treatment of plug-ins refer to whether or not a plug-in is considered to be a core element of JD+, on which criteria such a distinction should be based and on the organisation of a potential approval procedure. It was suggested that official plug-ins should be limited to applications which are sufficiently close to standard seasonal adjustment procedures, e.g. benchmarking, temporal disaggregation, chain-linking etc., but not, e.g. nowcasting. Also a set of rules for the development of plug-ins should be identified and documented. Eurostat provided some guidelines for the plug-ins release policy as agreed by the ESS Task Force on Shared services, and Duncan agreed to use it as reference framework for the next version of the document, ideally to be provided by the end of 2015.
The SAEG endorsed this proposal, and the renamed "Temporal Disaggregation and Benchmarking" plug-in shall be included in the next upgraded version of JDemetra+ 2.1. It is envisaged to arrive at an annual rhythm for upgrades of JDemetra+.
4.3 Evolution of JDemetra+: common RegARIMA for X-13 and TS – brainstorming
This item was dropped from the agenda
4.4 Establishment of a list of research topics
In the area of research, the SAEG is envisaging to create a list of topics which are worth investigating in depth. In this respect Duncan Elliot reported on the main research topics that were identified at the Time Series meeting held in London in November 2015: These include:
· prior adjustment:
o new methods (e.g. non-Gaussian/Bayesian); premature outlier removal;
o Identifying spans for moving holidays; outliers in hierarchically aggregated sets;
o Improve tests for choice of additive or multiplicative decomposition; weather effects;
· seasonal adjustment:
o Diagnostics on final series and defining “good enough"; consistency of revisions in barely seasonal series
o additive/multiplicative/both or mixed decompositions; consistency of local and global seasonal adjustment;
o Identification of appropriate asymmetric end point filters;
o understanding and perceptions of seasonal adjustment by the public and policy makers;
o adjustment of multiple frequency series;
· Benchmarking:
o Multivariate benchmarking; relationship between benchmarking and seasonal adjustment
o Quality measures and diagnostics; binding and non-binding benchmarking
o Tests for suitability of benchmarking; issues around chainlinking and benchmarking; wavelets;
The proposed list will be discussed to identify priorities at the next meeting of the SACE.
5. POINTS FOR INFORMATION
5.1. Future SACE and SAUG: planning 2016/2017/2018
Dario Buono (Eurostat), briefed the SAEG on the future of the SACE and SAUG. The main scope of the next call for SACE will mainly focus on all aspects that would contribute to the use of JD+ as Standard in the framework of the ESS modernisation. The next SACE is mainly expected to deal with:
1. Ensuring the implementation of the ESS Guidelines on Seasonal Adjustment
2. Quality reporting
3. Standardisation: common RegARIMA for data pre-treatment
4. Temporal Disaggregation
5. Analysis of revisions and vintage storage
In terms of functioning it will provide help-desk assistance, coaching sessions on site and will contribute to the ESTP trainings. In terms of promotion activities, it should target the following international Events: NTTS 2017, ISI 2017 and ESF2017.
The call for a Multi Beneficiary Grant Agreement is scheduled to be launched by Eurostat in 2016q2 as soon as the current SACE has finalised its tasks. It will cover again a time horizon of 2 years. In order to continue ensuring the wider involvement of NSIs the SACE will continue to support the organization and logistics of the SAUG. With respect to the SAUG composition it would be welcome to involve NSIs that were not previously participating.
5.2 JDEMETRA+ Hackathon on 8/12/15
Dario Buono (Eurostat) informed about the Hackathon Session to take place at Statec on JDemetra+. Almost all the SAEG people were attending. The event shall be repeated in March 2016.
5.3 Handbook on Seasonal Adjustment and the Handbook on Rapid Estimates (by Eurostat)
Rosa Ruggeri Cannata (Eurostat) informed SAEG that the Handbook on Rapid Estimates was sent to UN during the last week of November 2015, while the one on Seasonal Adjustment will be sent in January 2016.
6 NEXT STEPS
6.1 Date of the next meeting
The next meeting of the SAEG will be held in Frankfurt, Tuesday, 7 June 2016.
7 ANY OTHER BUSINESS
The group agreed that no other issues needed to be discussed at the meeting.
List of participants
ESTAT / Martina Hahn / Co-chair personECB / Henrik Schwartzlose / Co-chair person
ESTAT / Dario Buono / Co-secretary
ECB / Sylwia Grudkowska / Co-secretary
DE / Stefan Linz / Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
DK / Karen Keller / Statistik Danmarks
FR / Olivier Sautory / INSEE
FR / Dominique Ladiray / INSEE
FI / Faiz Alsuhail / Statistics Finland
UK / Duncan Elliott / Office for National Statistics
ECB / Henrik Schwartzlose / European Central Bank
IMF / Marco Marini / International Monetary Fund
NB BE / Jean Palate / Banque nationale de Belgique
NB DE / Andreas Lorenz / Deutsche Bundesbank
NB HR / Ante Cobanov / National Central Bank of Croatia
ESTAT / Michele MAROTTA / Eurostat
ESTAT / Stefan SCHIPPER / Eurostat
ESTAT / Rosa RUGGERI CANNATA / Eurostat
ESTAT / Ferdinando BISCOSI / Eurostat
ESTAT / Arto KOKKINEN / Eurostat
ESTAT / Frank MUENSTER / Eurostat
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