Jobless Rates / Jobless Rate Ratios / Black Share
Total / White / Black / Hisp / B/T / B/W / B/H / All Men / Jobless
Atlantic
Boston / 25.3 / 19.9 / 33.5 / 28.7 / 1.32 / 1.69 / 1.17 / 15.2 / 20.1
New York / 29.7 / 22.7 / 41.6 / 29.1 / 1.40 / 1.83 / 1.43 / 19.3 / 27.0
Philadelphia / 39.4 / 31.6 / 49.5 / 39.5 / 1.26 / 1.57 / 1.25 / 33.2 / 41.7
Baltimore / 33.6 / 21.6 / 45.3 / 14.8 / 1.35 / 2.09 / 3.06 / 51.0 / 68.8
District of Col / 26.7 / 15.2 / 47.1 / 19.2 / 1.76 / 3.10 / 2.45 / 32.5 / 57.3
Industrial MW
Pittsburgh / 29.4 / 24.4 / 46.0 / 21.3 / 1.56 / 1.89 / 2.16 / 15.1 / 23.7
Cleveland / 37.9 / 23.9 / 51.7 / 31.8 / 1.36 / 2.17 / 1.63 / 45.6 / 62.2
Detroit / 53.3 / 42.8 / 58.2 / 26.4 / 1.09 / 1.36 / 2.21 / 77.2 / 84.3
Chicago / 26.7 / 16.3 / 50.1 / 22.1 / 1.88 / 3.07 / 2.27 / 22.6 / 42.4
Milwaukee / 32.5 / 17.5 / 54.4 / 26.1 / 1.67 / 3.12 / 2.08 / 32.5 / 54.4
Other MW
Columbus / 21.4 / 18.7 / 36.1 / 14.1 / 1.69 / 1.93 / 2.56 / 15.2 / 25.6
Cincinnati / 25.5 / 20.0 / 39.3 / 20.8 / 1.54 / 1.96 / 1.88 / 25.1 / 38.7
Indianapolis / 24.9 / 21.6 / 40.0 / 15.0 / 1.61 / 1.85 / 2.68 / 23.0 / 36.9
St. Louis / 30.8 / 20.7 / 43.6 / 24.2 / 1.42 / 2.11 / 1.80 / 34.7 / 49.1
Kansas City / 20.2 / 17.2 / 31.3 / 18.4 / 1.55 / 1.82 / 1.70 / 16.4 / 25.4
Minn-St Paul / 21.4 / 16.0 / 36.7 / 15.9 / 1.71 / 2.30 / 2.31 / 12.8 / 22.0
Oklahoma City / 19.7 / 18.5 / 30.0 / 10.0 / 1.52 / 1.62 / 2.99 / 10.0 / 15.2
South
Atlanta / 28.5 / 20.9 / 36.5 / 19.3 / 1.28 / 1.74 / 1.89 / 41.4 / 53.0
Charlotte / 20.0 / 15.5 / 35.2 / 9.7 / 1.76 / 2.27 / 3.63 / 26.9 / 47.3
Jacksonville / 24.0 / 20.2 / 35.2 / 15.6 / 1.47 / 1.74 / 2.26 / 26.8 / 39.3
Miami / 28.4 / 23.5 / 50.8 / 25.1 / 1.79 / 2.16 / 2.02 / 13.4 / 24.0
Memphis / 30.4 / 23.7 / 37.6 / 13.3 / 1.24 / 1.59 / 2.82 / 51.8 / 64.1
New Orleans / 31.7 / 20.5 / 42.1 / 14.9 / 1.33 / 2.06 / 2.83 / 48.7 / 64.7
Dallas / 18.2 / 16.6 / 31.7 / 12.9 / 1.74 / 1.91 / 2.45 / 17.2 / 30.0
Houston / 20.1 / 18.7 / 33.2 / 14.9 / 1.65 / 1.77 / 2.22 / 17.4 / 28.7
San Antonio / 25.6 / 18.8 / 32.3 / 21.5 / 1.26 / 1.72 / 1.50 / 7.1 / 9.0
West
Denver / 18.6 / 14.5 / 30.0 / 21.0 / 1.61 / 2.07 / 1.43 / 8.1 / 13.1
Phoenix / 27.0 / 23.4 / 38.2 / 29.1 / 1.41 / 1.64 / 1.32 / 7.4 / 10.5
Las Vegas / 24.6 / 25.3 / 41.9 / 18.5 / 1.70 / 1.65 / 2.26 / 11.0 / 18.7
Los Angeles / 26.1 / 26.0 / 40.5 / 22.2 / 1.55 / 1.56 / 1.82 / 7.4 / 11.5
San Francisco / 19.5 / 13.0 / 38.0 / 21.3 / 1.95 / 2.91 / 1.78 / 3.7 / 7.2
Portland / 25.6 / 24.5 / 37.5 / 21.5 / 1.46 / 1.53 / 1.74 / 5.2 / 7.6
San Diego / 23.2 / 20.5 / 26.5 / 24.8 / 1.14 / 1.29 / 1.07 / 5.9 / 6.7
Seattle / 18.1 / 15.2 / 23.5 / 15.9 / 1.30 / 1.55 / 1.48 / 5.8 / 7.5
National / 24.8 / 22.3 / 39.3 / 22.0 / 1.58 / 1.76 / 1.79 / 12.2 / 19.2
Jobless Rates: Amer Com Survey, microdata from IPUMS, 5-year pooled sample 2010-14
Table 2 indicates that in all specifications, the black share of young men is strongly significant. When it is the sole explanatory variable, Model 1 has an R-squared equal to 0.678, quite strong for cross-sectional studies. Model 2 indicates that the black-to-citywide rate ratio is not statistically significant.
Model 3 includes two general measures of the employment climate: each city’s jobless rate of young men and an employment index. In this model the black share of young men remains statistically significant but the jobless share of the young men is not statistically significant while the employment index is only marginal so. When the jobless share of young men is excluded, Model 4 has similar results. Thus, while variations in the strength of employment markets across cities may have explain a small portion of variations in violent crime rates, the most powerful explanation is variations in the black share of young men across cities.
Table 2: Impact of Male Joblessness, 20 to 24 years old,On Violent Crime Rates in Major Cities (t-scores in parentheses)
1 / 2 / 3 / 4
Black Share of All
Young Men / 19.0
(7.45)** / 20.5
(8.19)** / 17.1
(4.62)** / 16.3
(6.10)**
Black-to-Citywide
Jobless Rate Ratio / 2.88
(1.45)
Citywide Jobless
Rate of Young Men / -3.1
(-0.32)
Employment
Index Measure / -83.6
(1.81)+ / -78.0
(-1.85)+
Intercept / 492.8
(7.45)** / -22.7
(-0.07) / 827.2
(2.92)** / 750.4
(4.91)**
N / 34 / 34 / 34 / 34
R-Squared / 0.678 / 0.698 / 0.711 / 0.710
Statistical Significance: + p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01
1