International (Dis)Agreement on Climate Change Cancun, December 2010

International (dis)agreement on climate change – Cancun, December 2010

In December 2010 193 nations agreed once again that world average temperatures should be allowed to rise by no more than 2°C but again failed to commit to legally binding targets. As in Copenhagen (2009) they agreed on a green climate fund to share new technology, help conserve forests and ease the stresses on the poorest countries. At Copenhagen in 2009, rich countries agreed to find $100 billion (about £63 billion) a year by 2020 for the fund. However, according to US officials this would largely come from private investors.

The Chairman of the African countries taking part at the summit stated that developing countries wanted to see rich countries pledge emission cuts for a second time, similar to the current Kyoto Agreement. Developing countries also welcomed a new commitment to hold temperature increases to 1.5°C, which more than 100 countries have been calling for. Maintaining Kyoto is crucial for developing nations as is the only legally binding agreement that commits rich countries to cut their emissions.

The US Climate Change envoy said that the USA would not support any deal on climate aid and technology transfer, or preventing deforestation, unless there is progress on its demand for verification.

For many developing countries, including China, India and Brazil, the issue of international verification is a sensitive one. Nevertheless, some reports suggest that China may be prepared to adopt legally binding emissions targets and subject its voluntary CO2 reduction to international monitoring and verification. According to China’s Energy Research Institute, China is already halfway to its goal of cutting carbon intensity to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020.

Cancun also produced some good news for campaigners hoping to provide incentives to prevent the destruction of tropical rainforests. According to the deal, poor countries will receive aid for not burning or logging trees. Deforestation accounts for about 15% of the world’s carbon emissions.

Climate problems in 2010…

2010 is already likely to be one of the warmest years on record, in the warmest decade on record. The ice and snow that caused havoc in Britain at the start of December were balanced by the extremes of heat in Russia in July: temperatures soared more than 7.6°C above average, forest fires blazed and grain crops were destroyed. In Pakistan floods killed 1,500 and displaced 20million people. In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia temperatures reached over 50°C and in Morocco over 47°C. Much milder extremes during the European heatwave of 2003 are estimated to have claimed up to 70,000 lives.

…and in the future

There is another problem – and that is related to the sheer number of people living in urban areas. Urban areas often experience what is known as the ‘urban heat island’. Large urban areas generate their own microclimate and may experience temperatures that are warmer than the surrounding rural areas. Much depends on the size of the urban area, the building materials used, the presence of manufacturing industries, the volume of cars and other factors. But extremes of heat, and the consequent increase in urban air conditioning, are likely to make future heatwaves even more lethal.

Air conditioning will become increasingly common in large urban areas, especially in rich countries and in cities which have an important tourist base. Air conditioning runs on electricity, which is still provided largely by fossil fuel. Air conditioning systems use safe refrigerants based on complex compounds called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The most problematic of these were banned under the Montreal Protocol because of the threat to the ozone layer. More recent hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) do not destroy ozone but they do add to global warming. Molecule for molecule they are thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide at trapping heat. According to one assessment, these could amount to the equivalent of almost a fifth of the world’s carbon emissions by 2050 – and of course, make dangerous extremes even more dangerous.

Resources

Visit this site to find out about the new generation of hydrofluorocarbons. Here you will find satellite images of Pakistan’s floodwaters.

Questions

1 What were the achievements of the Cancun climate change summit in December 2010? [4 marks]

2 Compare the position of rich countries with respect to international agreement on climate change with that of poor countries. [4 marks]

3 In what ways was the weather of 2010 extreme? [3 marks]

4 Suggest why global warming could be a significant threat by 2030. [4 marks]

Suggested answers

1 Countries agreed that world average temperatures should be allowed to rise by no more than 2°C [1], that there should be a green climate fund to share new technology [1], help conserve forests [1] and ease the stresses on the poorest countries [1]. However, there is no real pathway to see how this will be funded. [4 marks]

2 Rich countries want to see developing countries, especially the likes of China and India, reduce their emissions of CO2 [1] and the USA in particular wants to be able to monitor and verify such cuts in emissions [1]. Developing nations want to see rich countries pledge emission cuts for a second time, similar to the current Kyoto Agreement [1] and many developing countries would like to hold temperature increases to 1.5°C [1]. [4 marks]

3 Extremes of weather in 2010 included heatwaves in Russia: temperatures soared more than 7°C above average; forest fires blazed and grain crops were destroyed [1]. Floods in Pakistan killed 1,500 and displaced 20million people [1]. In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, temperatures reached over 50°C [1] and in Morocco over 47°C [1]. [3 marks]

4 Global temperatures are increasing and as temperatures increase so too do extremes of temperature [1]. Increasingly, more people will be crammed into urban areas and the urban heat island means that urban areas are often warmer than the surrounding countryside [1]. Methods to reduce the impacts of heat, such as the use of air conditioning units, not only use electricity, which is generated by fossil fuels in most cases [1], it also uses hydrofluorocarbons, which is an extremely potent greenhouse gas [1]. [4 marks]