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Elite Enlightened Self-Interest
Philip Sutton
13 February 2004 Version 1.f
About this scenario
This scenario is one of three that were originally written as background to the ‘plastic bubbles installation’ at the Sustainable Living Festival in February 2004. The latest version of this and other scenarios can be found at:
Disclaimer
- Some real names might be used where they are in the public eye and they represent archetypes. The story of course is purely fictitious.
- The science of the key plot line in this scenario relating to the shutting down of the Gulf Stream current in the Atlantic is still being firmed up. The risks and dynamics are still to be determined with a high degree of certainty. For information about some possibilities see the end of the document.
Principles/themes
The scenario examines what sort of world and what sort of city emerges if globally the dominant elites adopt an enlightened self-interest approach to the most threatening environmental issues generally.
The principle thing to be sustained in this scenario is the power and wealth of the elites. Sustaining the environment is not the main aim. It a means to an end.
Democracy exists in the Elite Enlightened Self-Interest world because it’s the most stable way to manage people - but democracy is a very passive thing for most people. In practice democracy is not very inclusive.
Conservation of other forms of life - for their -own sake - is not a priority. The extinction rate of native species will continue to be very high - but not as high as it would have been had global warming been uncontrolled.
This scenario taps into the backlash that is building against the neo-conservatives around Bush (and Bair and Howard too perhaps).
Chronology - a plausible story to explain how society gets to the end state
13-15 Feb 2004 / lots of people attend the SLF Sustainable Living Festival - they read the Elite Enlightened Self-Interest scenario - they are blown away by the possibility that the Gulf Stream might shut down- large slabs of Europe and Eastern North America could become unlivable due to Ice Age conditions - food production globally would fall due to lost land - perhaps 300 m people might have to relocate - the industrial heartland of Europe would be destroyed. / Use the Greenleap email as the source
23 Feb 2004 / SLF holds an open forum for people interested in the Design Cities installation - 10 people who are want to do something about the Gulf Stream issue (and other extreme environmental issues) get together in a group to take action / Include a Darren Gladman type person - eg Greenhouse campaigner in major environment group - motivation - if Europe and US/Canada take action to save themselves they will force the rest of the world to get its act together on Greenhouse - John Howard will have to fall into line!!
The Gulf Stream Group organises a network of professionals both within Melbourne and elsewhere to develop a scientifically/intellectually sound case in relation to the Gulf Stream issue eg.
- what is likely to happen economically and socially if the Gulf Stream shuts off
- what Europe and North America (and the rest of the world) would have to do to cope with the effects of a Gulf Stream shut down
- -what would have to be done (and at what scale and speed) to avoid mass starvation, massive refugee flows, communal unrest, collapse of the world economy, etc.
The Gulf Stream Group realises that there will be very little chance to avoid the Gulf Stream shut off if the George Bush Regime continues in power after the Nov 2004 Presidential election - because Bush is committed to inaction on Greenhouse - the Group decides to join with people in Europe and North America to get the necessary information to the elites of the two regions before the elections. So they have to act fast. They have 8 months!
The Gulf Stream Group spreads it network into US, Canada and Europe. It builds strong peer group linkages to get the Gulf Stream message into the elites in these areas. The Gulf Stream Group develops a unique combination of grass roots action that is harnessed to influencing large numbers of the key members of the elite. This gives them a greater resource base and penetration than other longer standing environment groups aimed at the elites eg. World Resources Institute/Worldwatch Institute. The Gulf Stream Group carefully targets people whose interests would be fundamentally threatened if the Gulf Stream shut off but that would not be fundamentally threatened by the actions that need to be taken to prevent the shut-off. The Gulf Stream Group knows that an elite revolt against the George Bush regime has already started in the US - eg. the campaign being mounted by George Soros. / Have a link with a David Suzuki-style Foundation in Canada?; have a link with an Earth Policy Institute-style organisation in the US?; have a link with a David Rockefeller style green philanthropist? have a link with a George Soros style philanthropist?
Nov 2004 / George Bush doesn’t win the Presidential election. There is no terrorist action to provide a pretext for the military taking control. There is a peaceful transition to the new President.
Feb 2005 / Al Gore is appointed by the President to lead the US’s action on greenhouse.
June 2005 / The European Union establishes a special Commission to work specifically on the Gulf Stream issue.
July 2005 / The Gulf Stream Group changes it charter to generating awareness in the elites globally of the most pressing environmental issue that threaten global security and general welfare
2005-2006 / For two years there is a might power struggle in the US between the neo-conservatives and the military, nuclear, oil, coal, pharmaceutical, genetic engineering, etc. interests that clustered around the old Bush regime as a way to fend off structural changes that would threaten the growth prospects or even existence of their industries.
2007- / The enlightened self-interest elites win the power struggle - holding majority support from the intelligence agencies and the military. This win is secured by a series of strategic accommodations (see below and also the next section on what the economy would look like)
June 2007 / The President announces a formal commitment to:
- a race to Mars (against the European Union/China consortium)
- a major global program to provide missile defenses against asteroids - to be established through an international institution
- a crash program (in cooperation with Europe, Russia, India and China) to cut greenhouse emissions to the atmosphere to zero globally by 2015
2007 / New programs to deal with global water shortages/ shortfalls in agricultural production are put in place, creating, when taken together with the greenhouse gas reduction program, a new ‘Marshall Plan’.
2008 / An enlightened self-interest elite candidate wins the 2008 US Presidential election
2009 / After gaining advice that the Gulf Stream switch is expected to activate (cutting off the current) Europe funds a crash program by NASA and the European Space Agency to launch geo-stationary space reflectors positioned over the Arctic and Greenland to decrease the local temperature.
2011 / The space reflectors are in place. The Gulf Stream switch does not activate.
2015 / Global greenhouse emission have been brought down to 7% of their previous levels. (So the US President’s 2007 target of zero emissions has been 93% achieved.
2015-2030 / Under US leadership the world goes on to carry out a program to extract CO2 from the atmosphere and to sequester it underground and in the oceans
2030 / The gross ecosystems services supporting human life have been maintained without catastrophic collapse.
2030-2040 / Led by the US, the United Nations constructs a complete space layer around the earth that has reflective and light concentrating elements so that the earth can be cooled or heated at will - either generally or in specific regions.
What the economy would look like (end state) - about 2030
The world has a large population stabilising in 205o at about 9 billion.
GDP continues to grow globally.
Multinational corporations continue to wield huge global power.
It’s a multi-lateralist world with the US still the dominant player - although not as relatively dominant as it was 30 years earlier. The European Union has edged up on the US, as has China and India.
CO2 is no longer discharged to the atmosphere from energy systems. Fossil fuels are still used but all the CO2 is trapped and liquefied and pumped into geological structures or pumped into the ocean abysses where it stays as a liquid in the deep ocean.
The internal combustion engine is gone - replaced by lightweight hybrid vehicles running on hydrogen. Cars are still the main transport mode for cities like Melbourne
Water efficiency is a major preoccupation around the world. Water systems are integrated to gain 75% efficiency gains compared to 2000. Rainwater, storm water and domestic gray water is utilised.
Salinity control is practiced but still substantial areas of farmland (30%) are salt affected. Agricultural land has not been turned back to nature to stop salinity - instead holophilic organisms are grown (fish, shrimps, salt tolerant plants, etc.)
Many products have been servicised (ie. the consumer buys the service not the physical product) so the economy is a Factor 4 more efficient in materials but consumerism and the associated lifestyle of compulsive use and experience is still rampant.
As incomes have risen (on average/ there are still a very big gap between the highest and lowest incomes) organic has captured a higher % of the market - now up to 70%. The non-organic food is bought by the very poor. The shift to organic agriculture has been encouraged as a pollution control measure that contributes to improvement in rural health outcomes.
Renewable energy makes up about 10% of the energy economy.
Nuclear power is still used in Japan, the US and some European States.
Genetic engineering is used widely to produce consumer products and to fill functional gaps in ecosystems that have suffered from the extinction of natural species.
What the City would look like (end state)
After having to take in considerably more economic, environmental and political refugees, by 2030 Melbourne is a city of 6 million people and still growing.
The city recycles about 85% of its waste.
Cars are still the main transport mode but public transport has made something of a comeback.
There is a dual water system - high quality and secondary. The secondary water is stored seasonally in deep underground aquifers.
Since CO2 sequestration has been made mandatory fossil fuel based energy has risen in cost by 30% and this has led to a greater emphasis on energy efficient design.
About 50% of the structural change committed to in the Melbourne 2030 policy created in 2002 has been implemented. There are more areas with a high reliance on public transport (eg. Werribee, Melton and Sunbury). Housing density in terms of site coverage is higher, but the trend to small households has meant that the actual average density of the city has stayed low.
High quality gated precincts are very common for the rich.
By 2030 photovoltaics on roofs are beginning to appear more commonly.
With the greater urban sprawl - internet connected office centres have popped up all over the city so that workers can go to the office - in the neighbourhood regardless of where their employer nominal location.
Tips are almost a thing of the past - There are recycling regions focused on the western ring road and between Dandenong and Westernport. Each region has a megatip ‘mountain’ (ie. a hole is not used). There is a massive green waste/organic waste value adding complex at Werribee.
Gulf Stream shutdown
The Gulf Stream science is still not certain and the risks of shutdown are not known with any certainty.
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How Global Warming May Cause the Next Ice Age
by Thom Hartmann
Friday, January 30, 2004
CommonDreams.org <
While global warming is being officially ignored by the political arm of the Bush administration, and Al Gore's recent conference on the topic during one of the coldest days of recent years provided joke fodder for conservative talk show hosts, the citizens of Europe and the Pentagon are taking a new look at the greatest danger such climate change could produce for the northern hemisphere - a sudden shift into a new ice age. What they're finding is not at all comforting.
In quick summary, if enough cold, fresh water coming from the melting polar ice caps and the melting glaciers of Greenland flows into the northern Atlantic, it will shut down the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe and northeastern North America warm. The worst-case scenario would be a full-blown return of the last ice age - in a period as short as 2 to 3 years from its onset - and the mid-case scenario would be a period like the "little ice age" of a few centuries ago that disrupted worldwide weather patterns leading to extremely harsh winters, droughts, worldwide desertification, crop failures, and wars around the world.
Here's how it works. If you look at a globe, you'll see that the latitude of much of Europe and Scandinavia is the same as that of Alaska and permafrost-locked parts of northern Canada and central Siberia. Yet Europe has a climate more similar to that of the United States than northern Canada or Siberia. Why?
It turns out that our warmth is the result of ocean currents that bring warm surface water up from the equator into northern regions that would otherwise be so cold that even in summer they'd be covered with ice. The current of greatest concern is often referred to as "The Great Conveyor Belt," which includes what we call the Gulf Stream.
The Great Conveyor Belt, while shaped by the Coriolis effect of the
Earth's rotation, is mostly driven by the greater force created by differences in water temperatures and salinity. The North Atlantic Ocean is saltier and colder than the Pacific, the result of it being so much smaller and locked into place by the Northern and Southern American Hemispheres on the west and Europe and Africa on the east.
As a result, the warm water of the Great Conveyor Belt evaporates out of the North Atlantic leaving behind saltier waters, and the cold continental winds off the northern parts of North America cool the waters. Salty, cool waters settle to the bottom of the sea, most at a point a few hundred kilometers south of the southern tip of Greenland, producing a whirlpool of falling water that's 5 to 10 miles across. While the whirlpool rarely breaks the surface, during certain times of year it does produce an indentation and current in the ocean that can tilt ships and be seen from space (and may be what we see on the maps of ancient mariners).
This falling column of cold, salt-laden water pours itself to the bottom of the Atlantic, where it forms an undersea river forty times larger than all the rivers on land combined, flowing south down to and around the southern tip of Africa, where it finally reaches the Pacific. Amazingly, the water is so deep and so dense (because of its cold and salinity) that it often doesn't surface in the Pacific for as much as a thousand years after it first sank in the North Atlantic off the coast of Greenland.
The out-flowing undersea river of cold, salty water makes the level of the Atlantic slightly lower than that of the Pacific, drawing in a strong surface current of warm, fresher water from the Pacific to replace the outflow of the undersea river. This warmer, fresher water slides up through the South Atlantic, loops around North America where it's known as the Gulf Stream, and ends up off the coast of Europe. By the time it arrives near Greenland, it's cooled off and evaporated enough water to become cold and salty and sink to the ocean floor, providing a continuous feed for that deep-sea river flowing to the Pacific.
These two flows - warm, fresher water in from the Pacific, which then grows salty and cools and sinks to form an exiting deep sea river - are known as the Great Conveyor Belt.
Amazingly, the Great Conveyor Belt is only thing between comfortable summers and a permanent ice age for Europe and the eastern coast of North America.
Much of this science was unknown as recently as twenty years ago.
Then an international group of scientists went to Greenland and used newly developed drilling and sensing equipment to drill into some of the world's most ancient accessible glaciers. Their instruments were so sensitive that when they analyzed the ice core samples they brought up, they were able to look at individual years of snow. The results were shocking.
Prior to the last decades, it was thought that the periods between glaciations and warmer times in North America, Europe, and North Asia were gradual. We knew from the fossil record that the Great Ice Age period began a few million years ago, and during those years there were times where for hundreds or thousands of years North America, Europe, and Siberia were covered with thick sheets of ice year-round. In between these icy times, there were periods when the glaciers thawed, bare land was exposed, forests grew, and land animals