CONTENTS
Overview3
Land and Dwelling Demand 3
Land and Dwelling Supply4
Planners Pipeline6
Land with Concept Planning6
Multi-Unit Development Proposals7
Land Servicing Pipeline8
Dwelling Construction Pipeline
Single Dwelling Sites 9
Multi Unit Dwelling Sites10
Serviced Vacant Land Sales11
Full Property Sales16
Definitions19
The Economic Development Directorate makes no warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of information in this publication and recommends obtaining independent legal and financial advice before considering purchasing land or making an offer to purchase land.
© Australian Capital Territory, Canberra 2011
OVERVIEW
The Land Servicing and Dwelling Construction Pipelines record the status and volume of dwelling sites undergoing land planning, servicing and dwelling construction.
The residential land servicing and dwelling construction pipelinestotalled15,212 dwelling sites in the March quarter of 2012, down18 per cent or 3,319 sites on the December quarter of 2011. Based on an estimated annual demand of 3,000 dwellings, this level of supply is equivalent to 5 years demand. The average price of all dwellings settled (new and established) in the March 2012quarter was $508,432, and the volume of sales reached 2,260.
The average price of a single block of land settled (minus house) rose2.1 per cent to $292,464 and the volume of single blocks of land settled (minus house) during the quarter rose6.4 percent to 234 settlements. In Gungahlin, in theMarch 2012quarter the average size of vacant land settled was 488square metres and the average price rose11.1 per cent to $273,057.
Across the ACT, the average price per square metre of serviced vacant land settled during the December 2011 quarter rose1.1per cent to $574per square metre.
Land and Dwelling Demand
Based on an estimated population growth rate of 1.9 per cent for 2011/12, historic trends in dwelling formation and the continuing strong ACT economy the demand for residential dwellings is forecast to be approximately 3,000 dwellings per annum. Within this, the demand for dwellings is assessed to be approximately 1,500 dwellings located in Greenfield estates with the balance being in a range of urban infill locations. These figures exclude any pent up demand which currently exists in the market
During the March 2012 quarter2,260propertieswere settled. This was over the five year average of 2,088 and reflected a 2.9 per cent increase in settlements compared to the same quarter of 2011. The 234 single blocks of land settled inthe March 2012 quarter remains well above the 5 year average of 186 blocks settled per quarter and is also above the 114settlements recorded in the March quarter of 2011.
Figure 1.1: Volume of Dwelling Settlements and Vacant Single Block Settlements by Quarter
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
*Note: The volume of single lot sales is for land only. Where the land is sold as part of a house and land package it is reported as a full dwelling sale.
Land and Dwelling Supply
The number of dwelling sites in the Land Servicing Pipeline at the end of the quarter was 9,144.
The number of dwelling sites in the Dwelling Construction Pipeline was 6,068at the end of the quarter.
Figure 1.2: Number of Dwelling Sites in the Land Servicing and Dwelling Construction Pipeline
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
Table 1.1: Key Housing Indicators for the March 2012 Quarter
Jun-11 / Sep-11 / Dec-11 / Mar-12Dwelling sites in the Land Servicing Pipeline / 11,906 / 10,276 / 9,140 / 9,144
Dwelling sites in Dwelling Construction Pipeline / 3,092 / 5,259 / 9,391 / 6,068
Dwelling sites in Total Pipeline / 14,998 / 15,535 / 18,531 / 15,212
Average serviced single block size (m2) / 496 / 478 / 465 / 509
Average serviced single block price / $252,254 / $258,827 / $264,284 / $292,464
Volume of serviced single blocks settled / 115 / 332 / 220 / 234
Value of serviced land settled ($m) / 28.8 / 80.7 / 58.1 / 68.4
Average value of single dwellings settled / $590,738 / $559,619 / $572,131 / $582,545
Average value of multi-units settled / $466,960 / $442,037 / $449,389 / $434,711
Average value of all dwellings settled / $533,683 / $509,708 / $512,914 / $508,432
Source: Office of Regulatory Services, EDD
PLANNERS PIPELINE
The Planners Pipeline refers tofuture development or redevelopment proposals that are not included in the Land Servicing or Dwelling Construction Pipeline. The pipeline includes Greenfield land that has an approved Concept Plan or a Planning and Development Framework but no estate development plan, and multi-unit developments with development approval but without a building application lodged with the Environment and Sustainable Development Directorate (ESDD).
The Planners Pipeline shows there are 6,440 single residential blocks of land with an approved Concept Plan that are not included in the Developers Pipeline. In addition, there are a number of multi unit development proposals containing 2,502 dwellings that have development approval but are yet to have a Building Application lodged. These dwellings are not included in the Builders Pipeline. Many of these dwellings are expected to be delivered over the next 3 to 5 years.
Land with Concept Planning
A Concept Plan documents the planning requirements for a new development area. Once a Concept Plan is approved by ESDD, an Estate Development Plan (EDP) can be prepared by the developer. Table 2.1 indicates the supply of land that has an approved Concept Plan though yet to have an EDP prepared. Therefore, these dwelling sites are not included in the Developers Pipeline.
Table2.1: Supply of Land through Greenfield Estates with an Approved Concept Plan but no Estate Development Plan Submitted
District / Single Dwelling Sites / Multi Unit Dwelling Sites / TotalBelconnen / - / - / -
Central Canberra / - / - / -
Gungahlin / 2080 / 920 / 3,000
Woden/Weston Creek / 100 / 300 / 400
Molonglo / 2,513 / 1,127 / 3,640
Tuggeranong / - / - / -
Total / 4,693 / 2,347 / 7,040
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
Multi-Unit Development Proposals
There are a number of multi unit developments proposed by private developers for construction within the next three years. They are generally at the early design stage and are yet to have a development application lodged and therefore are not included in the Dwelling Construction Pipeline. It is possible a number of these proposals may not proceed in the short term if demand for this housing type falls. Table 2.2 details the possible number of dwellings.
Table 2.2: Number of Multi-Unit Dwellings Proposed Through Private Sector Redevelopments
Source: Colliers International
LAND SERVICING PIPELINE
The trigger for land to be included in the Land Servicing Pipeline is the commencement of an Estate Development Plan (EDP). The pipeline also includes land undergoing land servicing. Land moves out of the Land Servicing Pipeline when servicing is complete.
At the end of the March 2012 quarter, there were 9,144 dwelling sites in the Land Servicing Pipeline.
The number of dwelling sites in the Land Servicing Pipeline hasdecreased from 10,276 sites recorded in September2011. Despite this fall, the land servicing pipeline is still approximately double that recorded in March 2008 at which time 6,551 sites were in the pipeline.
Table3.1: Dwelling Sites in the Land Servicing Pipeline as at March 2012
District / Total Dwellings within the EDP Process / Total Dwellings undergoing Land Servicing / TotalBonner / 252 / 252
Casey / 500 / 430 / 930
Crace / 744 / 744
Harrison 4 / 416 / 416
Lawson / 1,850 / 1,850
Ngunnawal 2C / 475 / 475
Jacka / 316 / 316
Gungahlin Total / 3,141 / 1,842 / 4,983
Coombs 1 / 2,880 / 2,880
Wright 1B / 180 / 190 / 370
Wright 2 / 651 / 161 / 812
Molonglo Total / 3,711 / 351 / 4,062
Nth Weston / 99 / 0 / 99
Woden Weston Total / 99 / 0 / 99
Totals / 6,951 / 2,193 / 9,144
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
DWELLING CONSTRUCTIONPIPELINE
There was a total of 6,068 dwellings sites in the ACT dwelling constructionpipeline in the March 2012 quarter.
In total, 36 per cent of dwelling sites in the Dwelling Construction Pipeline are recently serviced dwelling sitesawaiting dwelling construction, 8 per cent are single dwellings under construction and 57 per cent are multi-unit developments under construction.
Table4.1: Total Dwelling Construction Pipeline
Q2 / Q3 / Q4 / Q1June 2011 / Sept 2011 / Dec 2011 / Mar 2012
Single Dwelling Sites Awaiting Construction / 981 / 1,831 / 2,484 / 2,159
Single Dwellings under Construction / 821 / 857 / 744 / 458
Multi-Unit Dwellings / 1,290 / 2,571 / 6,163 / 3,451
Total / 3,092 / 5,259 / 9,391 / 6,068
Source: Office of Regulatory Services, ABS
Single Dwelling Sites
Table4.2: Number of Single Dwelling Sites in the Dwelling Construction Pipeline
Vacant Single Sites / Single Dwellings Under Construction* / Total Single DwellingsBelconnen / 75 / 25 / 100
Central Canberra / 35 / 10 / 45
Gungahlin / 1,476 / 356 / 1,832
Woden/Weston Creek / 68 / 8 / 76
Molonglo / 490 / 34 / 524
Rural/Uriarra / 15 / 25 / 40
Total / 2,159 / 458 / 2,617
Source: Office of Regulatory Services, ABS, Individual Developers
Multi-Unit Dwelling Sites
Table 4.3 details the stock of multi unit dwelling sites held by builders, by district. The table includes sites under constructionincluding leased multi unit sites that have received a building application but no certificate of occupancy and completed dwelling sites that have a certificate of occupancy but are yet to receiveelectricity connection.
Table 4.3: Number of Multi Units in the Dwelling Construction Pipeline
Belconnen / 512Central Canberra / 2,100
Gungahlin / 562
Woden/Weston Creek / 67
Tuggeranong / 210
Total / 3,451
Source: Colliers
The Dwelling Construction Pipeline figures do not include a significant number of development proposals that are in the design and/or planning stage of development, i.e. without Building Approval. These dwellings are recorded in the Planners Pipeline.
SERVICED VACANTLAND SALES
The following data is taken from land-only settlements as recorded by the ACT Office of Regulatory Services. Note that where land is sold as part of a house and land package, it is not recorded here.
The total value of serviced residential vacant land sold over the March 2012 quarter, was $68.4m. The price of serviced vacant land for a single and multi dwelling block varies depending on the block type/size and the location. Across the ACT, the average price per square metre of serviced vacant land settled rose from $568sqm in the December 2011quarter to $575sqm in theMarch 2012 quarter, a 1.1 per centincrease.
In the March 2012 quarter, the price of single blocks averaged:
- small blocks (0 – 450sqm) $240,860
- medium sized blocks (451 – 650sqm) $289,225
- large serviced blocks (651sqm+) $407,600
Quarterly changes in the average serviced land prices for single blocks are indicated in Figure 5.1. The graph includes the average price for land sold in the ACTand Gungahlin. Comparing the March 2011 quarter to the March 2012 quarter, the average price of a single block of land for all of the ACT rose 8.7 per cent over the year.
During the March 2012 quarter the average price of single residential serviced sites settled was $292,464 compared to $264,284 in the previous quarter. This large increase was a result of compositional effects following the settlement of a number of larger higher value sites in North Weston.The average price for land in Gungahlin aklso rose on the back of a large number of higher value sites being settled in Forde North during hte quarter.
The average size of single residential blocks settled was 509sqm compared to 465sqm in the previous quarter, a 9.5 per cent decrease in average block size. The average price increased by 10.7 per cent.
It is evident in Figure 5.1 that the average land price in the ACT is volatile over the 5 year period depending on the volume of premium blocks settled in established areas of the ACT.
Figure 5.1: Average Single Block Price
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
During the March 2012 quarter the value of serviced land-only sales was $68.4 million, up from $58 milion recorded in the December 2011 quarter.
Figure 5.2: Value of Serviced Land Sold ($m)
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
Table 5.2: Single Dwelling Sites, Quarterly Comparison
Q2 / Q3 / Q4 / Q1 / QuarterlyJun-11 / Sep-11 / Dec-11 / Mar-12 / % change
No. blocks sold / 114 / 332 / 220 / 234 / 6.4%
Avg price / $252,254 / $258,827 / $264,284 / $292,464 / 10.7%
Avg block size (m2) / 496 / 478 / 465 / 509 / 9.5%
Price per sqm / 509 / 541 / 568 / 575 / 1.1%
Total sales ($m) / 28.8 / 80.7 / 58.1 / 68.4 / 17.7%
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
The price variation represented in the following figures reflects both the quality and quantity of land, relative location and the size of blocks sold. This means that caution should be exercised in the interpretation of data on the price of land.
Table 5.3: Single Dwelling Sites, Size and Price Comparison by Decile
Decile / Data / Jun-11 / Sep-11 / Dec-11 / Mar-12 / % Change
D1 / Sale Price / $161,900 / $193,894 / $131,909 / $197,348 / 49.6%
Block area (m2) / 292 / 375 / 250 / 369 / 47.8%
D2 / Sale Price / $183,909 / $217,879 / $206,586 / $230,822 / 11.7%
Block area (m2) / 341 / 428 / 340 / 463 / 36.3%
D3 / Sale Price / $199,091 / $231,461 / $222,032 / $242,061 / 9.0%
Block area (m2) / 471 / 410 / 400 / 432 / 8.0%
D4 / Sale Price / $212,182 / $243,371 / $236,864 / $254,517 / 7.5%
Block area (m2) / 420 / 457 / 549 / 462 / -15.7%
D5 / Sale Price / $218,636 / $251,968 / $243,841 / $267,348 / 9.6%
Block area (m2) / 479 / 457 / 418 / 477 / 14.2%
D6 / Sale Price / $226,364 / $263,620 / $258,727 / $277,304 / 7.2%
Block area (m2) / 478 / 474 / 466 / 465 / -0.1%
D7 / Sale Price / $246,091 / $272,742 / $270,477 / $287,642 / 6.3%
Block area (m2) / 476 / 513 / 480 / 517 / 7.6%
D8 / Sale Price / $266,000 / $283,258 / $290,682 / $307,109 / 5.7%
Block area (m2) / 583 / 527 / 559 / 570 / 1.9%
D9 / Sale Price / $309,636 / $297,726 / $339,768 / $347,783 / 2.4%
Block area (m2) / 636 / 626 / 593 / 638 / 7.7%
D10 / Sale Price / $542,944 / $336,548 / $441,955 / $480,085 / 8.6%
Block area (m2) / 641 / 606 / 599 / 670 / 11.9%
Total Avg Sale Price / $252,254 / $258,827 / $264,284 / $292,464 / 10.7%
Total Avg Block area (m2) / 496 / 478 / 465 / 509 / 9.5%
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
Table 5.4 illustrates the average block size, number of sales, and average block prices achieved during the March 2012 quarter by district and block size category.
Table 5.4: Average Serviced Land Prices
Single Dwelling Blocks / Belconnen / Central Canberra / Gungahlin / Tuggeranong / Woden & Weston / ACT Total / AverageMolonglo
0 - 450 m² (small)
Avg. Blk Size (m²) / 404 / 229 / 377 / 450 / 371
No. of Sales / 4 / 4 / 57 / 1 / 66
% of Sales / 6.1% / 6.1% / 86.4% / 1.5% / 100%
Avg. Price ($)/Blk / 259,250 / 322,450 / 231,929 / 350,000 / 240,860
Avg. Price ($)/m² / 642 / 1,408 / 615 / 650
451 - 650 m² (medium)
Avg. Blk Size (m²) / 516 / 509 / 588 / 517
No. of Sales / 22 / 102 / 11 / 135
% of Sales / 16.3% / 75.6% / 8.1% / 100%
Avg. Price ($)/Blk / 248,963 / 282,777 / 429,545 / 289,225
Avg. Price ($)/m² / 482 / 556 / 731 / 560
651 + m² (large)
Avg. Blk Size (m²) / 734 / 720 / 764 / 736
No. of Sales / 2 / 18 / 10 / 30
% of Sales / 60.0% / 33.3% / 93%
Avg. Price ($)/Blk / 260,000 / 348,222 / 544,000 / 407,600
Avg. Price ($)/m² / 484 / 712 / 554
Total Single Dwelling Sites
Avg. Blk Size (m²) / 516 / 229 / 488 / 672 / 504
No. of Sales / 28 / 4 / 177 / 21 / 230
% of Sales / 12.2% / 1.7% / 77.0% / 9.1% / 100%
Avg. Price ($)/Blk / 251,221 / 322,450 / 273,058 / 484,047 / 290,523
Avg. Price ($)/m² / 471 / 1,408 / 567 / 722 / 577
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
FULL PROPERTY SALES
The following data is taken from full property settlements as recorded by the Office of Regulatory Services.A full property settlement is one in which both the dwelling and land are combined. These include new house and land packages, new units, and all previously occupied dwellings.
During the March 2012 quarter average dwelling prices fell0.9 per cent to $508,432. Figure 6.1 presents the quarterly change in the average house price and unit price for dwellings settled by quarter. The average dwelling sale prices are taken from the date of registration of the sale with the Land Titles Office.
Figure 6.1: Average Value of Dwellings Sold by Dwelling Type and Quarter
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
In the ACT 2,260 single and multi-unit dwellings were settled in the March 2012 quarter with an average price of $582,545 for single dwellings and $434,711 for multi-units.
Figure 6.2: Total Value of Dwellings Sold by Quarter and Dwelling Type ($m)
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
Tables 6.1 and 6.2 detail quarterly, single residential and multi unit dwelling sales. During the March 2012 quarter the average single dwelling price rose1.8 per cent while the average price of multi units fell3.3 per cent. Table 6.3 details further analyses in price movement for single residential dwellings by deciles, and includes the average block size for dwellings sold in each decile.
Table 6.1: Single Residential Settlements
Q2 / Q3 / Q4 / Q1 / QuarterlyJun-11 / Sep-11 / Dec-11 / Mar-12 / % change
No. Single dwellings settled / 1,242 / 1,202 / 1,032 / 1,127 / 9.2%
Ave price / $590,738 / $559,619 / $572,131 / $582,545 / 1.8%
Avg block size (m2) / 749 / 712 / 757 / 737 / -2.6%
Total sales ($m) / 734 / 672 / 590 / 657 / 11.4%
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
Table 6.2: Multi Unit Settlements
Q2 / Q3 / Q4 / Q1 / QuarterlyJun-11 / Sep-11 / Dec-11 / Mar-12 / % change
No. Multi-units settled / 985 / 885 / 962 / 1,133 / 17.8%
Ave price / $422,095 / $442,037 / $449,389 / $434,711 / -3.3%
Total sales ($m) / 416 / 391 / 432 / 493 / 14.1%
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
Figure 6.3: Single Residential Settlements Sale Price and Land Size by Decile
Q2 / Q3 / Q4 / Q1 / QuarterlyDecile / Data / Jun-11 / Sep-11 / Dec-11 / Mar-12 / % Change
D1 / Sale Price / $342,727 / $357,669 / $345,009 / $357,221 / 3.5%
Block area (m2) / 521 / 500 / 355 / 474 / 33.3%
D2 / Sale Price / $411,299 / $410,538 / $400,102 / $409,831 / 2.4%
Block area (m2) / 610 / 596 / 580 / 562 / -3.1%
D3 / Sale Price / $445,598 / $445,308 / $432,200 / $442,508 / 2.4%
Block area (m2) / 704 / 712 / 668 / 643 / -3.7%
D4 / Sale Price / $480,203 / $479,879 / $463,290 / $471,577 / 1.8%
Block area (m2) / 712 / 712 / 726 / 735 / 1.2%
D5 / Sale Price / $515,081 / $514,201 / $497,859 / $507,886 / 2.0%
Block area (m2) / 725 / 686 / 672 / 722 / 7.4%
D6 / Sale Price / $551,389 / $545,109 / $534,885 / $544,030 / 1.7%
Block area (m2) / 748 / 701 / 697 / 728 / 4.5%
D7 / Sale Price / $593,662 / $583,378 / $581,822 / $587,895 / 1.0%
Block area (m2) / 715 / 751 / 762 / 735 / -3.5%
D8 / Sale Price / $651,536 / $633,583 / $640,492 / $638,574 / -0.3%
Block area (m2) / 822 / 722 / 808 / 828 / 2.5%
D9 / Sale Price / $756,204 / $716,305 / $737,660 / $735,537 / -0.3%
Block area (m2) / 850 / 836 / 852 / 874 / 2.6%
D10 / Sale Price / $1,150,634 / $914,550 / $1,078,174 / $1,098,168 / 1.9%
Block area (m2) / 1,074 / 910 / 1,442 / 1,053 / -27.0%
Total Avg Sale Price / $589,833 / $559,619 / $572,131 / $582,545 / 1.8%
Total Avg Block area (m2) / 748 / 712 / 757 / 737 / -2.6%
Source: Office of Regulatory Services
DEFINITIONS
1 / Economic Development DirectorateGreenfield Land
Greenfield land refers to land that is located outside of the existing urban boundary of the ACT. The land is generally located on the outer edge of the existing urban area and requires subdivision, road construction, connection to services and new retail, educational and community facilities. It includes land in Gungahlin and Molonglo.
Urban Infill
Urban infill refers to any redevelopment of serviced land within the urban boundary. Generally the land has previously been used for an urban use, including car parking. Examples include development in Civic, local and town centres, dual occupancies and any redevelopment on leased land.
Urban Consolidation
Urban consolidation refers to the development of unserviced land within the existing urban boundary. Generally the land requires servicing however can rely on existing retail, educational and community facilities. For example Lawson and East Lake
Planners’ Pipeline
The Planners’ Pipeline reflects possible future greenfield land and redevelopment proposals that are not included in the Land Servicing and Dwelling Construction Pipelines. The Planners’ Pipeline includes the number of vacant dwelling sites with concept planning in place; and the number of multi unit development proposals which are yet to have building approval.
Land Servicing Pipeline (Developers’ Pipeline)
The Land Servicing Pipeline refers to the supply of dwelling sites that are in the hands of developers (excluding redevelopment sites but including sites rezoned to residential). The pipeline includes land where an Estate Development Plan has commenced and land that is either awaiting servicing or being serviced. Once servicing is complete, the land is included in the Dwelling ConstructionPipeline.
The figures exclude developments on already serviced land such as apartment buildings and dual occupancies. These developments are included in the Dwelling Construction Pipeline once a building application is lodged with ACTPLA. The Pipeline does not reflect the tenure of land as unserviced blocks can be sold prior to servicing being commenced.
Dwelling Construction Pipeline (Builders’ Pipeline)
The Dwelling ConstructionPipeline indicates the supply of serviced dwelling sites that are awaiting construction, under construction or completed and unoccupied. Vacant dwelling sites include leased single residential sites that are yet to have building approval. Sites under construction include leased single residential blocks that have building approval and no certificate of occupancy.
Dwelling Type
A single dwelling is a dwelling consisting of one dwelling on a single block of land. A multi unit consists of two or more dwellings on a single block of land, including a dual occupancy.
Full Property Price
Refers to properties that involve the transaction of land and dwellings (includes new and established dwellings). Property transactions that are classified as partial transactions (where buyer and seller have at least one person in common) are excluded from average price estimations, as these transactions represent less than the full market value for a property.