Lesson Idea: Polling & Public OpinionC-SPAN
Time Frame: 4 days approximately Objectives:
Students will learn about polls and the polling process, including vocabulary.
Students will apply critical thinking skills to analyze questions related to polling accuracy and current issues with polling.
Students will determine what factors are important when assessing the accuracy of a poll.
Students will put their knowledge into practice through the creation and analysis of their own polls.
Materials:
Projector or SmartBoard style technology to stream videos
Poll Handout (Google Doc) (Adobe PDF)
Internet Sites Needed for Lesson: C-SPAN
Vocabulary:
Polls Straw Poll Academic Polls
Foundation/Institutional PollsMedia Polls
Campaign Polls (Internal polling) Internet Panels & Mobile Panels
Mixed Methodology (for polling) Sample Size
Likely Voters Disenfranchisement
Margin of ErrorPoll Bias
Demographics Exit Polls
Procedure:
1. Discuss and take notes on the vocabulary with students.
2. Watch the following clips and have students answer the accompanying questions.
∑ Gallop History of Polling (30 sec)
∑ Early Polling (1 Ω min)
∑ Basics of Polling (3 min)
∑ Campaign Polling (2 Ω min)
a) What is the difference between polling done by an academic institution/foundation and campaign polling?
b) Who is the intended audience for the different types of polling? (Discuss internal polling for campaigns)
Technological Challenges
3. Discuss the following questions and then view the Problems with Internet Polling (1 Ω min) video:
a) How has the use of phones and the internet changed over time?
b) Does this make the job of pollsters easier or harder?
c) What concerns can you think of with internet polling and mobile polling?
4. Discuss the following questions and then view the videos below:
Bias and Polling Trust
a) Do you think people believe polls are fair/balanced or biased? Can you give reasons for your opinion?
b) How can people who conduct polls boost the trust in polls by the public?
∑ Bias in Polls (2 min)
∑ Trust in Polls (2 Ω min)
∑ Legitimate Polls (1 min)
5. Wrap-Up Discussion:
When looking at a poll, what factors should they look at to determine whether it is an accurate poll?
- Media polls v. academic/institutional polls (who sponsored the poll)
- The overall question (approval/disapproval) and the sub-set of questions
- The sample and whether that s published information
- Margin of error
6. Activity:
Break students into small groups of 2 or 3. Ask them to come up with a basic question relevant to their lives/school/community. They should then come up with two possible answers.
Discuss the issue of demographics and give the students the example polling sheet to help with ideas.
Extension Lesson 1:
Have students gather polls on various issues. Show them reliable sites/sources. Ask them to track the polling issue over a period of time to see how it changes and whether different polls have similar results or different results than one another.
Examples:
- Polling on a particular issue (gun control, health care ACA, gay rights, foreign policy)
- Polling approval ratings (presidential, congressional, whether country is going in right direction)
- State or national election race (gubernatorial, state congressional, U.S. Congress, U.S. Senate)
Have students share their results. How did the polls change over time and were the
different sources consistent or not?
Extension Lesson 2:
During the 2012 presidential election, there was much discussion about the accuracy of polling. It’s been reported that the Mitt Romney campaign was so convinced they would win, based upon their internal campaign polling, that they had only written an acceptance speech and not a concession speech.
Find both video and written articles which discuss this issue.
C-SPAN has video on the 2012 election polling and results.
Writing Assignment: What were the factors which made polling inconsistent and problematic for the 2012 presidential election? Were the campaigns themselves having issues with their own internal polling and why? What factors that had been building regarding polling accuracy became problematic at this time? What are some of the ways this can be changed and improved?