Section Programme
7-9 April, 2009
Pokrovsky Boulevard, 11
Section A
Macroeconomic policy
Chairperson - E. Gurvich (Economic Expert Group)
7 April, Tuesday
15:00 – 16:30Auditorium Г-114 / Session A-03
Russia's macroeconomic development
Chairperson – I.Korhonen (Bank of Finland)
A.Mehrotra, I.Korhonen (Bank of Finland)
Output, real exchange rate and oil: Case of four large energy producers
H.Simola (Bank of Finland)
Why are Russian exports so specialised?
L.Solanko (Bank of Finland), A.Karas (Roosevelt Academy), T.Juurikkala (World Bank)
The role of banks in monetary policy transmission: Empirical evidence from Russia
Discussant – L.Vinhas de Souza (European Commission)
17:00 - 18:30
Auditorium Г-114 / Session A-04
Analysis of Russian economy
Chairperson – M. Gilman (U-HSE)
V. Matveenko (St. Petersburg Institute of Economics and Mathematics, RAS)
Proportionate factors and economic growth in a resource-dependent economy
S. Prusova, L. Razumnova (Moscow State Linguistic University)
Observed comparative advantages of Russia within the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China)
M.Sirkjärvi (Helsinki School of Economics, Center for Markets in Transition), E.Kerola (Helsinki School of Economics)
Foreign Direct Investment and Intra Industry Trade in Northwest Russia
О. Eismont (System Analysis Institute, RAS)
Analysis of Russian-European gas strategies
Discussant – S. Smirnov (Development Centre)
8 April, Wednesday
15:00 – 16:30Auditorium Г-114 /
Session A-07
Russian Economy Development Models
Chairperson – K. Rohland (World Bank)A. Larin, А.Shulgin (U-HSE, Nizhniy Novgorod Branch)
Econometric testing of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in Russia
А. Shulgin (U-HSE, Nizhniy Novgorod Branch), А. Dementiev, Е. Lozgacheva (U-HSE)
Monetary Policy during Adaptive Training of Expectations in the Period of Macroeconomic Dynamics. Scenario: Russia 1998-2008
V. Sokolov (U-HSE), E. Gurvich (Economic Expert Group)
Analysis of correlation between the CB exchange rate policy and interest rates
V. Morgunov (Russian Federation Central Bank)
Exchange Rate Policy Selection Determinants in Inflation Targeting Conditions
Discussant – K. Sosunov (U-HSE)
17:00 - 18:30
Auditorium Г-408 /
Session A-08
General macroeconomic problems
Chairperson – M. Gilman (U-HSE)R.Ghosal (University of Calcutta, India)
Cross-country differentials in growth and the role of human capital - an empirical analysis.
E.Duzhak (Baruch College, City University of New York), W.A.Barnett (University of Kansas)
Non-Robust Dynamic Inferences from Macroeconometric Models:Empirical Assessment of Bifurcation Regions within New Keynesian Models
N. Arefiev (U-HSE)
An optimal fiscal policy and accumulation of human capital
A.Spiru (Lancaster University Management School)
Inflation Convergence in Central and Eastern European Economies
Discussant – I. Voskoboinikov (U-HSE)
9 April, Thursday
10:00 – 11:30Auditorium Г-114 / Session A-09
Fiscal policy
Chairperson – L. Yakobson (U-HSE)
C.Seidl (University of Kiel, Germany)
Measurement of Tax Progression with Different Income Distributions
E. Kolomak (Institute of Economics and Organization of Industrial Production, RAS)
Tendencies of the sub-federal fiscal policy in Russia
A.Libman (University of Mannheim)
Constitutions, Regulations, and Taxes: Contradictions of Different Aspects of Decentralization
Y.Gou (School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University)
Participatory Budgeting: International Experience and China’s Practice
Discussant – E. Shkrebela (U-HSE, IET)
Section B
Financial Crisis
Chairpersons: E. Yasin (U-HSE), E. Gurvich (EEG)
7 April, Tuesday
15:00 – 16:30Auditorium Г-313 / Session B-03
Crisis and Modernization: Behavior of Economic Agents in Conditions of Narrowing Resource Potentials – 1
Chairpersons: E. Gurvich (EEG), L. Grigoriev (Institute of Energy and Finance)S. Avdasheva (U-HSE), А. Shastitko (BEA)
A competitive policy in crisis conditions
L. Grigoriev (Institute of Energy and Finance), S. Plaksin (U-HSE)
Changes of Economic Entities’ Interests in Crisis Conditions, Problem and Attachments
M. Ovchinnikov (FAS)
Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Anticorruption Policy Implementation
Т. Maleva (NISP)
The middle class: the social basis of modernization or a group of survival in the crisis?
17:00 - 18:30
Auditorium Г-313 / Session B-04/1
Crisis and Modernization: Behavior of Economic Agents in Conditions of Narrowing Resource Potentials – 2
Chairpersons: А.Ausan (IEF Social Contract), E. Gontmakher (Institute of Social Development – INSOR, U-HSE)
E. Gontmakher (Institute of Social Development – INSOR, U-HSE)
The global financial & economic crisis and social restructuring in Russia
А. Ausan (IEF Social Contract)
Dynamics of the social contract: critical tendencies
V. Tambovtsev (Lomonosov Moscow State University)
Development programs: to the methodology of program elaboration
S. Afontsev (Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS)
Strategies of Russia’s social and economic development in crisis conditions
N. Zubarevich (NISP)
Regional policy in growth and crisis conditions
17:00 - 18:30
Auditorium Г-513 / Round Table B-04/2
Economic and Financial Instability in the EU and Russia
Moderator – L.Vinhas de Souza (DG ECFIN, European Commission)
The crisis that started in the United States in the summer of 2007 was heightened by a series of developments in the summer of 2008. From a situation largely localized in the US, it became a truly global downturn, spreading to other mature markets like the EU and also to emerging ones that so far had been largely insulated from the crisis. Russia was one of those emerging markets affected. The consequences for all those affected were a combination of real and financial effects. The objective of this session is to discuss the causes, effects and policy options to deal with the ongoing economic and financial instability, in Russia and also in the EU. This is clearly an essential undertaking and a comparative discussion of this in both areas is justified by the fact that they faced largely common shocks and had similar policy reactions. Additionally, the EU and Russia are truly strategic economic partners.
Participants: K.Smits (World Bank), O.Butorina (MGIMO University), A.Moisseev (Renaissance Capital), E.Hotulev (Ministry of Economic Development)
8 April, Wednesday
15:00 – 16:30Большой зал КЦ / Session B-07/1
Financial Crisis in Russia: Sources and Prospects
Chairperson – E. Yasin (U-HSE)
D.Barnard (OECD)
The specificity of the Russian crisis and the anti-crisis program
А. Klepach (Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation)
The policy of the government in the crisis period
E. Gurvich (Economic Expert Group)
Mechanisms of the Russian financial crisis
Е. Gavrilenkov (Troika Dialog Investment Company)
Forecast scenarios for the Russian economy development
Discussant – S.Aleksashenko (U-HSE)
15:00 – 16:30
Auditorium Г-313 / Round Table B-07/2
Appraisal of the Government Anti-crisis Measures
Moderator – L. Yakobson (U-HSE)
Yu.Simachev (Interagency Analytic Centre, U-HSE)
Presentation of the joint report of the Interagency Analytic Centre and U-HSE Appraisal of Anti-Crisis Measures in Support of the Real Sector of the Russian Economy
Participants: A. Blokhin (INSOR), O. Fomichev (MEDT), A. Shastitko(BEA)
17:00 - 18:30
Большой зал КЦ / Session B-08/1
Financial Crisis: Causes and Ways Out
Chairpersons: N. Berzon (U-HSE), О. Vyugin (MDM-Bank, U-HSE)
О. Vyugin (MDM-Bank, U-HSE)
Macroeconomic reasons for the emergence of the global financial crisis
N.Berzon (U-HSE)
Economic aftereffects of the global financial crisis for the Russian economy
W.Donaldson (US Securities and Exchange Commission)
Analysis of errors in financial markets regulation and possible modification options
N. Orlova (Alfa Bank)
The future of the Russian banking system after the crisis
Discussant – L.Freinkman (ANE)
17:00 - 18:30
Auditorium Г-313 / Round Table B-08/2
Development Institutions in Crisis Conditions
Moderator – E. Pogrebnyak (VEB)
S. Vasiliev (VEB)
Role of Development Institutions in the Economic Policy in the Crisis Period
Issues for discussion:
· What should the development policy be focused on in the period of crisis?
· How does the long-term development policy correlate to the need for prompt reaction to short-term crisis phenomena?
· New sources of development projects financing.
· Provate-public partnership opportunities in development projects.
Participants: A. Belousov (RF Government), A. Savatyugin (Finance Ministry), A. Bugrov (CJSC Interros), A. Sharonov (Troika Dialog), Z.Bogetic (World Bank), L. Grigoriev (Institute of Energy and Finance), A. Svinarenko (SC Rosnanotekh), T. Popova (SC Housing and Community Amenities Reform Support Foundation), P. Schedrovitsky (Rosatom)
9 April, Thursday
10:00 – 11:30Auditorium Г-313 / Session B-09
Analysis of Crisis Development
Chairperson – S.Aleksashenko (U-HSE)
M.Miller (University of Warwick), J.Stitglitz (Columbia University)
Leverage and Asset Bubbles: Averting Armageddon with Chapter 11?
G.Kuranov, А.Vladimirov (Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation)
Financial & economic crises as the conclusion and the start of economic cycles
N.Smorodinskaya (Institute of Economy, Russian Academy of Sciences)
Global systemic crisis: lessons of new thinking
M. Salikhov (Institute of Energy and Finance)
Connection between the Financial Crisis and Industrial Recession
O. Danilin (Ernst&Young)
Systemic World Crisis: Change of the Socioeconomic System and Structure of International Relations
Discussant – S. Drobyshevsky (IET)
12:00 – 13:30
Auditorium Г-313 / Round Table B-10
The Housing Market and the State Housing Policy in Crisis Conditions
Moderator – N. Kosareva (“Institute of Municipal Economy” Foundation)
Issues for discussion:
· Analysis and forecast of the main tendencies in the housing market
· Regional differentiation in the housing market in crisis conditions
· Adequacy of anti-crisis measures taken in the housing sphere in late 2008- early 2009
· Russian residential property market after the crisis
· Lessons of the crisis: do the strategies of the state housing policy need to be adjusted?
Participants: А.Semeniaka (Mortgage Lending Agency), К.Aprelev, G.Sternin (Russian Guild of Real Estate Brokers), О.Ivanov (Russian Banks Association), А.Tumanov (“Institute of Municipal Economy” Foundation), А.Markarian (Glavstroy-Management)
15:00 – 16:30
Auditorium Г-313 / Round Table B-11
What does the Global Crisis Lead to: a Choice for Russia?
Moderator – A. Shokhin (RSPP, U-HSE)
Issues for discussion:
· The Crisis: a Threat or an Opportunity for Building an Innovative Economy?
· Russia’s Position in the Post-Crisis Economic System
· Anti-Crisis Measures of the RF Government: Analysis of the Actual Impact on the Situation in the Country, Comments and Proposals
Participants: R. Vardanyan (Troika-Dialog), L. Melamed (OJSC Effortel), M. Ershov (Rosbank), D. Yakobashvili (Wimm-Bill-Dann)
Section C
Finances and Banks
Chairpersons: F. Aleskerov, V.Solodkov, М.Nikitin (U-HSE)
7 April, Tuesday
15:00 – 16:30Auditorium Г-317 / Session C-03
Dynamic Models of the Financial Sector
Chairperson – V.Solodkov (U-HSE)
O. Saldakeeva , G. Smirnova, S. Gelman (U-HSE)
Monetary Crises and Structural Shifts in the Auto Correlation on the BRICs Stock Markets.
S. Bryzgalova, S. Gelman (U-HSE)
Spurious long-range dependence: evidence for market (in)efficiency
M. Nikitin (U-HSE), R. Smith (University of Alberta)
Bank Spreads and Business Cycles
O. Kovalenko (Russian Federation Central Bank)
Modelling the Dynamics of the Russian Financial Sector Market Interest Rates
Discussant – E. Kolesnikova (U-HSE)
17:00 - 18:30
Auditorium Г-317 / Session C-04
Financial Sector Problems
Chairperson – D.Tsomokos (Said Business School, Oxford University)
C.Salm, M.T.Bohl, C.A.Salm, M.Schuppli (Westfaelische Wilhelms-University Muenster)
Price Discovery in an Emerging Index Futures Market
А.Meshalkina, S.Gelman (U-HSE)
The underreaction and overreaction in asset markets with insider trading
M.Schuppli, M.T.Bohl (University of Muenster)
Feedback Trading in Chinese Stock Markets
D.Tsomokos (Said business school, Oxford University), C.Goodhart (LSE), A.Vardoulakis (Said Business School, Oxford University)
Modelling a Housing and Mortgage Crisis
E. Vakulenko, E. Kolesnikova, M. Serdyuk (U-HSE)
Impact of the Banking system on Economic Growth of Regions
Discussant – М.Nikitin (U-HSE)
9 April, Thursday
10:00 – 11:30Auditorium Г-317 / Session C-09
Financial systems in Russia and emerging Europe
Chairperson – Z.Fungacova (Bank of Finland)
I.Hasan (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute), A.N.Berger (University of South Carolina), I.Korhonen (Bank of Finland), M.Zhou (University of Alaska Fairbanks)
Focus – Diversification and Risk – Return Tradeoff in Banking: Evidence from Russia
L.Weill (Universite de Strasbourg)
How Corruption Affects Bank Lending in Russia
Z.Fungacova (Bank of Finland), L.Weill (Universite de Strasbourg)
How Market Power Influences Bank Failures: Evidence from Russia
E.Kocenda, J.Hanousek (CERGE-EI, Charles University and the Academy of Sciences)
Intraday Price Discovery in Emerging European Stock Markets
Discussant – M. Nikitin (U-HSE)
12:00 – 13:30
Auditorium Г-317 / Session C-10
Investment and Bank Efficiency
Chairperson – M. Nikitin (U-HSE)
A. Markov, I. Shulga (World Bank)
Raising Financial Literacy of the Russian Population as a Public Policy Priority
Т.Teplova, V.Udaltsov (U-HSE)
“Levers of investment activity enlivening in capital-intensive Russian companies”
Е.Glushkova, А. Vernikov (U-HSE)
“Establishing the limits and assessing the scope of state presence in the banking sector of Russia”
S.Caner, S.Ozyildirim (Bilkent University)
Bank Characteristics, Effects of Monetary Policy on the Credit Market: Evidence from the Russian Banking Industry
Discussant – V.Belousova (U-HSE)
15:00 – 16:30
Auditorium Г-317 / Session C-11
Financial Structures
Chairperson – M. Nikitin (U-HSE)
O.Talavera (The Robert Gordon University), C.Baum (Boston College), D.Schaefer (DIW-Berlin)
The Impact of Financial Structure on Firms’ Financial Constraints: A Cross-Country Analysis
P. Vorobyev (Ural State University)
Connection between the Bank Credit and Production Extension Pace: What Impact will the Financial Crisis Have on Russia’s Economic Growth?
L.Rangelova-Petkova (University of National and World Economy)
Performance measurment reporting for increased efficiency of decision making in commercial banks: the case of Bulgaria
G.Fraquelli, F.Erbetta, A.Menozzi (Universit? del Piemonte Orientale "A. Avogadro"), G.Corbetta (Universit? "L. Bocconi")
Family Ownership and Technical Efficiency: Evidence from the Italian Industry
Discussant – A. Karminsky (MGTU, U-HSE, RES)
17:00 - 18:30
Auditorium Г-317 / Session C-12
Efficiency of Banks and Companies
Chairperson – V.Solodkov (U-HSE)
F. Aleskerov, V.Belousova V.Solodkov (U-HSE), А.Ovcharov (Bank of Moscow)
Analysis of the effect of Russian commercial banks’ size and typology on cost management efficiency
A. Peresetsky (CEMI RAS, RES)
Technical Efficiency of Banks. Russia and Kazakhstan
A. Karminsky (MGTU, U-HSE, RES)
Company Ratings and their Modelling
S. Golovan (RES)
Comparison of Bank Efficiency in Russia and Turkey
Discussants: S. Golovan (RES), V.Belousova (U-HSE)
Section D
State Governance
Chairpersons: А.Barabashev, А.Klimenko (U-HSE)
8 April, Wednesday
15:00 – 16:30Auditorium Г-513 / Round Table D-07
Analytics and Managerial Decision Making: Trends, Organizational Forms, Mechanisms of Interaction with State and Municipal Authorities
Moderators: А. Klimenko, А. Barabashev (U-HSE)
Issues for discussion:
· Specificity and functioning forms of Think Tanks, research centers and universities as analytical centers
· International activity of analytical centers
· Analytical centers and leadership
· Analytical support of managerial decisions at the regional and local levels
· Risk analysis of decision-making
Participants: B.Ruble (Kennan Institute), E.Peck (University of Birmingham), M.Pirog (Indiana University, Professional Public Management Journal), A.Campbell, E.Campbell-Denezhkina (University of Birmingham), P.Dezendorf (Western Carolina University), A.Rubienska, P.Jackson (University of Birmingham)
17:00 - 18:30
Auditorium Г-513 / Session D-08
Quality of Government Services
Chairperson – А. Klimenko (U-HSE)
А.Klimenko, А.Zhulin (U-HSE)
“Quality of government services: monitoring results, priorities in crisis conditions”
S. Plaksin, O. Ivanova (U-HSE)
Practice of Public Functions Implementation with the Involvement of Expert Organisations
Е.Podkolzina, А.Balcevich (U-HSE)
Administrative regulations as mechanisms of control in the bodies of executive authority
Е.Kapoguzov (F.M. Dostoevsky Omsk State University)
Monitoring the results of administrative reform activities (On the example of Omsk Oblast)
Discussant – Zh. Shatilyon (Sorbonne University, France)
9 April, Thursday