WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

Workshop on the Vision for WIGOS in 2040

Geneva, Switzerland, 18-20October 2016

Draft FINAL REPORT

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CONTENTS

CONTENTS
AGENDA
Executive Summary
General Summary
List of Participants (Appendix I)
Final Programme (Appendix II)
Roadmap(Appendix III)

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AGENDA

Agenda

OPENING OF THE WORKSHOP

Session 1: Setting the Scene

Session 2: From GOS to WIGOS; broadening the Vision

Session 3: Technical, political and financial challenges, issues and opportunities

Session 4: Role of WMO and other international partners

Session 5: Toward an integrated “Vision for WIGOS in 2040”

CLOSURE OF THE WORKSHOP

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary

The Workshop on the Vision for WIGOS in 2040, Surface-based perspective was held at the WMO Secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland, from 18 to 20 October 2016. The workshop was co-chaired by Dr S. Barrell and Prof Dr B. Calpini, Co-chairs/ICG-WIGOS). The co-chairs welcomed the participants to the workshop.

The summary (wrap-up) of the presentations and the follow-up discussions is summarized in Session 5; the Roadmap (Action Plan) is listed in the Appendix III.

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GENERAL SUMMARY, p. 1

General summary

OPENING OF THE WORKSHOP

The Workshop on the Vision for WIGOS in 2040, Surface-based perspective,was held at the WMO Secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland, from 18 to 20 October 2016. The workshopwas co-chaired by Dr S. Barrell and Prof Dr B. Calpini, co-chairs/ICG-WIGOS, whowelcomed the participants to the workshop.

On behalf of the Secretary-General of WMO,Mr P. Shi, Director in charge of the Observing and Information Systems (OBS) Department,opened the workshop and welcomed the participants to Geneva. He recalled that EC-66 had requested CBS to take the lead in developing a Vision for WIGOS in 2040, which will include a “Vision for the WIGOS component observing systems in 2040” for its submission to Cg-18 in 2019.

He mentioned that an important input to the meeting, a preliminary draft “Vision for the WIGOS Surface-Based Observing Components in 2040" developed at the IPET-OSDE Workshop in Offenbach, Germany, 23-25 August 2016, wouldbe reviewed against the broader development trends to be discussed at the workshop. Based on it, the Workshop will provide its guidance on the future work toward integrating this draft and the draft “Vision for WIGOS/Surface in 2040” into one coherent “Vision for WIGOS in 2040”.

SESSION 1: SETTING THE SCENE

Why a WMO “Vision for WIGOS in 2040”?;Objectives of the workshops (S. Barrell and B. Calpini, Workshop Co-chairs)

The “Vision” will be used as reference for WMO Members and other service providers. It is meant to inform decision made by satellite agencies, for most of whom2025 is a too short horizon; therefore it should reflect the expected status in 2040 - to defineaccordingly satellites priorities; on the other hand, 2040 is arguably too far away for the surface-based components, and for this part of the vision the trends should be considered.

The “Vision” will set a framework for future systems deployment, development and integration; it may impact on the future WMO structure.

Prior to this Workshop two draft vision documents had been prepared: the space-based vision,which is more advanced and the surface-based vision in early stages. However, the goal is to develop one coherent WIGOS Vision document, representing an integrated approach to the future system planning and support for service delivery.

The WMO Rolling Review of Requirements and the role of the Vision (J. Dibbern)

The RRR process was presented in the context of the Vision for WIGOS; the importance of such a long-term Vision was underlined.

During the discussion, the need for truly visionary thinking involving and from a broad community (not only NMHS) perspective was stressed. Questions, such as “How will WMOlook like in 2040”?; “What will be the role and importance of “third party” observations”?;“How will WMO relate with partners”? and issues regarding data-sharing, partnerships, etc.should be addressed in the Vision.

It was noted that the Vision is very useful guidance for the Members, and especially for the NMHSs, to use in their planning of observing system development.In order for the Vision to best serve this purpose, it must treat WIGOS in a holistic manner rather than considering the space and surface components separately.

Draft Vision for WIGOS/Space in 2040 (S. Bojinski, T. Kurino)

A presentation on the background and themain driversof the new space visionwas delivered. It was mentioned that the Vision should not be revolutionary, but should be an evolution of the current Vision for the GOS in 2025.

In the follow-up discussion, it was noted thatan integrated vision for how the space and surfaceobserving components should evolve together was missing from the current draft. This integration aspect is also missing in the case of OSCAR, where the Space and Surface components have evolved separately into two distinct system component; the for some level of integration of the two in order to support gap analysis was recognized by the Workshop.

Draft Vision for WIGOS/Surface in 2040 (F. Grooters, J. Eyre)

The workshop was briefed on the outcome of a CBS-led drafting workshop held in Offenbach in August 2017. This had led to the development of a Draft Vision for WIGOS/Surface 2040

It was noted that an important purpose of the Vision is to provide guidance to Members on the development of their national observing systems. The Vision should clearly articulate the applications areas that it covers and the related services that are supported; this is necessary in order to identify whichtypes of observations are needed to address requirements for services.

Keynote: Requirements for meteorology and hydrology in 2040; Weather prediction, climate change, megacities, air pollution, population growth, food security, SDGs; (Sue Barrell and L. P. Riishojgaard)

A possible global context for WIGOS in 2040 was cast in terms ofnine so-called global megatrends that may be help define some of the main challenges of the global society. While they are highly interrelated, these megatrends can broadly be grouped into three sets, reflecting changes in the status and expectations of individuals, changes in the global economy and changes in the physical environment, respectively

Based on this view of the future, some implications for NMHSs could be identified.Among the key factors that would drive the NMHS observing programs in 2040 are : a) climate change; b) increased needs for specialized meteorological services in highly urbanized areas; and c) influence of the private sector.

One may reasonably expect that the demand for meteorological products and services will continue to grow, and that it will therefore be much higher in 2040 than it is now.On the other hand, it is considered unlikely that NMHSs will be able to maintain a near-monopoly on the provision of meteorological observations, products and services; in contrast, a stronger role for the private sector is likely. It will be necessary to sort out issues regarding ownership and data exchange for observational data in particular.

If the current WMO paradigm of the provision of meteorological services as a “public good” is to be maintained, a continued strong government role will be needed in areas such as responsibility for watches and warnings, official records on forensic weather, climate monitoring, and policy-level guidance on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Therefore, a clear vision from WMO on these issues is urgently needed.

Keynote: The Future of Environmental Measurements (B. Calpini)

A CIMO vision for environmental measurementsto support continued improvement in the quality of meteorological products and services was presented. The key elements of this vision are outlined below:

  • Members will strive to obtain fit-for-purpose environmental measurements through appropriate standards and observing technologies.
  • WMO will be used as the reference source of information on suitability of measurements for specific environmental intelligence (applications). Both users and data providers will understand the importance of the measurement process in the environmental information chain.
  • Users and providers are committed to traceability of ECV measurements.
  • The quality and utility of emerging measurements is documented in the CIMO Guide and reference material.

Keynote: New technology trends: Systems of opportunity, miniaturization and commoditization, mass-deployment, third party information and data partnerships (J. Pica)

Among the trends noted in the presentation from the US National Weather Service were:

  • Growing recognition of sensitivity of business performance to weather
  • Increased cost of disaster damage, estimated to impact 1/3 of U.S. GDP
  • Significant unmet user needs for improved weather predictions (accuracy and lead times) and decision support, e.g.:
  • Hyperlocal nowcasts
  • Greater lead time for mesocale forecasts
  • Seasonal and longer timescale forecasts

Building “weather ready”nations will change the way we work and change the nature of ourproducts. It will require

  • Becoming more oriented toward Earth System Sciences (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere)
  • Collaborating with social science - to ensure message delivered = message received for desired outcomes (e.g. How to describe and display “storm surge?”)
  • Understanding decision makers and their “shifting risk preferences” before/during/after an event
  • Connecting observations/forecasts/warnings to “Key Decision Points” in all service areas

Solutions may involve

  • Internet of Things, robotics and automation are addressing current gaps in weather data collection, potentially at lower cost.
  • Supercomputing, big data and machine learning are enabling unprecedented data assimilation to weather forecasts and models.
  • Analytics and big data are combining vast amounts of weather, business and operational data for better decision-making.
  • Cloud, mobile computing, improved visualization, smart devices, and more focus on ‘user experience’ are making weather data easier to access and digest, often at lower cost.
  • Miniaturization trends have the potential to lower observation costs

SESSION 2: FROM GOS TO WIGOS; BROADENING THE VISION

The Global Observing System and the evolving requirements for Numerical Weather Prediction and Reanalysis (E. Källén)

ECMWF’s primary role is to develop a capability for medium-range weather forecasting and to provide such weather forecasts to the Member and Co-operating States. ECMWF is complementary to the National Meteorological Services and works with them in research, numerical weather predictions, supercomputing and training.ECMWF strategic 2016-2025 goals are as follows: i) High impact weather two weeks ahead; ii) Regime transitions four weeks ahead; iii) Global scale anomalies one year ahead; iv) Earth System Observations; Ocean-atmosphere coupled assimilation showing potential; v) Microwave radiances primary observation source; and vi) Better use of conventional observations.

The target by 2025 is a seamless approach, aiming towards predictions of large scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead and global-scale anomalies up to a year ahead.

The Global Atmosphere Watch in WIGOS (J. Klausen)

The GAW programme and its implementation plan (2016-2023) were presented briefly. GAW is a research programme that involves many elements from high quality observations to development and delivery of the new products and services. The portfolio of the products and services will be developed by a new Scientific Advisory Group on Applications.

The vision for the next decade of GAW is to grow an international network of high-quality atmospheric observations across the local to global scale to drive high quality and impact science while co-producing a new generation of research enabled products and services.

WMO Hydrological Observing System in WIGOS (S. Pecora)

A WMO Hydrological Observing System (WHOS) was briefly presented as a way to provide a hydrological contributionto the WIGOS vision of “an integrated, comprehensive, and coordinated system which is comprised of the present WMO global observing systems.” WHOS is conceived as a portal to facilitate access to already available on-line real-time and historical data, drawing from the water information systems of those countries around the world that are making their data freely and openly available.

The importance of hydrological data, their sharing and integration under WIGOS were stressed, specifically for climate monitoring. This should be reflected in the Vision with a focus on those application areas where the Members have a common interest in sharing data and where the political obstacles may be surmountable, e.g. flood forecasting.

Ocean observing system requirements (E. Charpentier)

Currently JCOMM is responding to GCOS Implementation Targets for the Ocean domain as stated in GCOS 2010 Implementation Plan.

The global ocean observing system, in situ observing component,is evolving to make best use of lessons learned, evolving user requirements, new technologies, and to better complement satellite data. New observing system design initiatives such as TPOS 2020are examples for future evolutions of global ocean observing system. TPOS 2020 is a good example of how to design the vision integrating various technologies; it may help guide the balance of investments in the space versus the surface components of the overall system.

WMO should encourage stronger engagement of NMHSs in the implementation of the global ocean observing system in response to climate requirements, and marine services.

The Global Cryosphere Watch and observational data requirements in 2040 (B. Goodison)

The GCW Mission was presented as follows: “GCW will provide authoritative, understandable, and useable data, information, and analyses on the past, current and future state of the cryosphere to meet the needs of WMO Members and partners in delivering services to users, the media, public, decision and policy.” A robust and sustained surface and space-based observing systemis essential for GCW to achieve its mission. Cryosphere observation and monitoring will be a key element of “environmental observing” that will serve a multitude of user communities.

There are many challenges in implementing GCW and meeting future visions. GCW is interdisciplinary and cross-cutting - national, regional and global in scope, addresses all time scales;it requires collaboration among government, academia, private sector.

GCOS - ECV requirements now and in the future (C. Richter, GCOS Secretariat and T. Oakley)

A presentation on the GCOS requirements and the recently developed GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS IP) was provided. It was noted that the GCOS requirements are structured around the concept of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs).

It was further noted that many of the actions listed in the newGCOS IP are related to CBS activities; GCOS IP actions of a strategic nature should be mentioned in the WIGOS visionin. GCOS observational data requirements should be also inserted into OSCAR/Requirements database.

The GFCS observation and monitoring pillar (V. Grasso)

A generic presentation of the Global Framework for Climate Services was provided.During the subsequent discussion, several comments were made, such as: What are the views on the future of GFCS? How can WIGOS and GFCS work together more effectively?A strategic approach to WIGOS has been missing in the GFCS implementation; a stronger link is needed between GFCS, GCOS and WIGOS. Ad hoc collaboration is not enough.

It wasalso noted that the GFCS observational data requirements should be included in the RRR Requirements database. GCOS has developed a proposal for draft requirements for GFCS; however, no feedback has been provided by the GFCS community.

NMHS perspective; trends in acquisition, use and management of observations – CMA (Ch. Pei)

In the presentation, it was shown that many principles and aspects of WIGOS are already being implemented or at least considered by CMA.It was noted that guidance on how it may be translated into actions to be taken at the national level should be included in the Vision.

NMHS perspective; trends in acquisition, use and management of observations in 2040 – US (K. Schrab)

The plans of the US National Weather Serviceup to the year 2030 was presented, and it was noted that they are very well aligned with the spirit of WIGOS, even though they rely on national proprietary tools and databases rather than on e.g. OSCAR.