Carmarthenshire County Council| OP/PD restructuring
Wrexham Affordable Housing Delivery Plan 2008-2012
Table of contents
Purpose 3
Wrexham housing market and demographic profile 4
Assessment of demand 5
Affordable Housing needs evidence base 6
Affordability in Wrexham 12
Influencing demand 16
Enabling supply 18
Affordable housing delivery target 25
The purpose of this document
The purpose of this Delivery Plan is to:
· Re-state our commitment to enabling the provision of additional affordable homes in Wrexham
· Clearly state our expectations of our partner agencies
· Define what affordable housing means
· Confirm our understanding of the housing market
· Describe how we can influence the demand for affordable homes
· Bring together all the actions to increase the supply of affordable homes.
· Clearly state what we are committed to enabling over the next four years
This Statement will not cover:
· Quality of homes, including building ‘sustainable, environmentally friendly’ homes
· Long term running costs associated with owner occupation including heat, light and power costs
Wrexham housing market and demographic profile
Wrexham’s County Borough’s population stands at 131,000 residents accommodated in 54,500 homes. Between 1991 and 2001 the population grew at almost double the Wales average at 4.2%. At 4.4% current growth in the population is considerably faster than the population for Wales as a whole.
However, ‘Wales Population – A Demographic Overview 2008’ – Welsh Assembly Government’ estimates that by 2031 all Wales population is projected to increase by 11 per cent. Whilst separate figures are not available for Wrexham it may be that the figure of 4.4% (and as a consequence the new households and dwelling requirement) may be conservative and by inference undervalue the affordable housing requirement.
The proportion of older people in the population is predicted to grow significantly over coming years. Projections by the North Wales Population and Housing Research Group predict a 37% increase in people over retirement age in the Borough by 2026 with significant increases in the elderly population (85+) of 78%
Inward economic migration has placed significant extra demands on the local housing market in recent years. The Local Housing Needs Assessment (March 2006) reported over 2000 new households moving into the Borough between 2004 and 2006. As at March 2006, 12.6% of households within the Borough had moved from elsewhere within the UK.
There has been a large inflow of migrant workers from the new EU accession states in Eastern Europe and a significant increase in the student population, largely within Wrexham, with the continued growth of Glyndwr University which is further increasing the pressure on local housing markets.
This inward migration has to some extent mirrored the economic success of the Borough in recent years and it’s connectedness with buoyant market areas in West Cheshire, Merseyside (Wirral) and to a limited extent Shropshire. Until the recent housing market ‘collapse’ the delivery of comparatively high levels of housing completions has also attracted the migration of households to the area.
Despite recent falls, house prices in Wrexham increased by nearly 60% between July 2004 and 2008. Household incomes have not grown at the same rate (Average UK earnings rose 18% over same period)
County Borough average house price to income ratio stands at 5.9 (October 2008) with 68% of first time buyers still priced out of the market for a terraced property (mortgage based on 3 times salary)
Assessment of demand
Both the current and future demand has been identified in:
· Our UDP, which was successfully adopted in 2005
· Our developing LDP Preferred Strategy Document (Executive Board approved preparation of LDP in accordance with Preferred Strategy in September 2008)
· Housing Potential Study published in March 2007
· Annual housing land availability study
· Local Housing Market assessment – published in March 2006
· North East Wales Housing Market assessment published in March 2008
· Our Council House waiting list and Affordable Housing Registers – a snapshot of demand for rent and to buy
· The Accommodation and Housing Support Strategy for Older People Action Plan (2007) research document 2008 – “future older person provision in Wrexham County Borough.”
The Local Housing Needs Assessment and sub regional Housing Market Assessment have informed and enabled:
· A full analysis of the County Borough’s housing market and an evidence base for affordable housing requirements
· A robust analysis of cross-authority housing markets.
The policy statement on older persons housing requirements has enabled:
· A robust analysis of the housing needs and aspirations of older people
· Forward planning of the re-alignment of housing provision required to meet these needs. In particular the more specialist requirements such as Extra-Care provision.
Affordable housing local needs evidence base
Wrexham Housing Needs Assessment 2006
Fordham Research Ltd. was commissioned to undertake a housing needs assessment in 2005 to inform the emerging Local Housing Strategy and Local Development Plan, studying housing requirements across all tenures, areas and client groups within the authority.
The report divided Wrexham into sub regional areas:
Wrexham County Borough Council study areaSource: Wrexham County Borough Council Housing Needs Survey 2006
Key findings included:
· A shortfall of affordable housing across the County Borough a continued shortage in the future.
· Greatest shortage in Wrexham Town, West and North East
· A need for 2205 more affordable homes by 2021 – an annual shortfall of 147 a year, based on conditions and reasonable assumptions at that time, representing 40% of the planned yearly supply of all types of housing in the county.
Table 10.2 Net need for affordable housing by size() indicates a surplus
Size required / Need / Supply / TOTAL
1 bedroom / 496 / 413 / 83
2 bedroom / 361 / 253 / 108
3 bedroom / 167 / 343 / (176)
4+ bedroom / 180 / 48 / 132
Total / 1,204 / 1,057 / 147
Source: Wrexham County Borough Council Housing Needs Survey 2006
· The overwhelming need for 2 bedroom properties – in particular affordable housing.
· A high target for affordable housing of up to 40% on development sites would be justified.
· A mix of intermediate and social rented housing will be required to meet outstanding need.
· 42.1% of households contain “over 50’s only”. Almost half of “over 50’s” only households contain one person, having implications for the provision of future care.
North East Wales Housing Market Assessment 2008
GVA Grimley Ltd. was jointly commissioned by Wrexham, Denbighshire and Flintshire to undertake a joint Local Housing Market Assessment across the North East Wales sub regional housing market area in 2007. Key findings of the report included:
· Within the Core Study Area average house prices increased from £74,753 to £155,032 between 2001 and 2006
· There is a significant undersupply of affordable housing given the recent increases in house prices, the reduction in the amount of available social rented housing and the current lack of development activity to bring forward new affordable housing.
· Affordability for indigenous households and first time buyers remains one of the biggest delivery challenges.
· A need to build a more balanced stock of new houses. This should include smaller stock that comprises units that are suitable for single and family occupation, including the elderly.
· Waiting list data indicates that there is a notably high level of demand for smaller social rented property. Within Wrexham demand is greater for 2-bedroom units.
· The need to secure greater levels of affordable housing as part of market housing developments.
· The need for smaller quality affordable units (one and two bedroom properties) with greater numbers of young households likely to be excluded from entering the private housing market.
· Maximise the delivery of affordable housing units on remaining potential housing sites and any surplus public land that arises during the plan period.
· Opportunities should also be identified in other urban centres for delivering a quality flatted product aimed at new households to contribute towards meeting the increased demand for smaller single person or couple households projected.
· A range of provision for elderly households should be explored.
· Maximising the delivery of affordable housing on remaining land, with this being particularly important in Wrexham where a considerable amount of future capacity consists of sites which already have planning permission.
Council Housing waiting list – by wards
Greatest demand - applicants waiting per letting
Ward / Total Number of homes / Total Number of applicants / Total number of lettings / Applicantsper letting
Bryn Cefn / 49 / 238 / 0 / 238
Gwersyllt East & South / 39 / 358 / 3 / 119
Gresford East & West / 86 / 186 / 2 / 93
(Wrexham Town) / 14 / 87 / 0 / 87
Little Acton / 83 / 412 / 5 / 82
Erddig / 57 / 152 / 2 / 76
Holt / 86 / 117 / 2 / 59
Marchwiel / 60 / 114 / 2 / 57
Rhosnesni / 63 / 307 / 6 / 51
Brynyffynon / 179 / 560 / 11 / 51
Applicants for affordable non council housing
Top ten areas by demand
Future older person housing need in Wrexham County Borough
Wrexham’s Accommodation and Housing support Strategy for Older People Action Plan 2007 – 2010 includes an objective to determine in detail the level of provision of future older person’s accommodation requirements.
Research was undertaken by the County Borough’s Strategic Housing Section during the Summer of 2008 adopting a methodology advocated by the Departments of Health and Communities and Local Governments published toolkit “More Choice, Greater Voice” (February 2008)
Key findings included:
Tenure of Households Headed by Pensioner, 2001
% Owned / % Rented from Council / % Other social rented / % Private rented or living rent freeWrexham CBC / 60% / 32% / 2% / 6%
Wales / 73% / 17% / 3% / 7%
· Population estimates - 29,100 people currently aged 60+ within the County Borough. This represents 22% of the population. Broken down by age cohort as follows:
Age Group / Population 2026 / % increase from 2001Retired – 74 / 20,550 / 20%
75-84 / 11,950 / 62%
85+ / 4,450 / 78%
Over retirement age / 36,950 / 37%
2005 based population projections and 5 year migration trends
· Most concerning is the significant increases in the very elderly population, the group likely to be in need of the most care and support.
· The “More Choice, Greater Voice” toolkit provided a framework to enable local analyse of both current and future need for specialist older person’s accommodation in the County Borough. The tables below refer to all older persons' requirements of which an affordable element is likely to reflect the current tenure of at least 34%.
Indicative levels of provision of various forms of accommodation for older people – based on current supply levels and population levels.
Tenure / 1,000 75+ 2001 / Suggested ratio per 1,000 of population 75+ / Suggested number of units / Current provision 2008 / Current ratio 2008 / Surplus / deficitConventional sheltered for rent / 9.87 / 50 / 494 / 750 / 76 / 257
Conventional sheltered leasehold / 9.87 / 75 / 740 / 19 / 2 / -721
Enhanced sheltered for rent / 9.87 / 10 / 99 / 154 / 16 / 55
Enhanced sheltered for sale / 9.87 / 10 / 99 / Nil / 0 / -99
Extra care sheltered for rent / 9.87 / 12.5 / 123 / Nil / 0 / -123
Extra care sheltered fore sale / 9.87 / 12.5 / 123 / Nil / 0 / -123
Housing based provision for dementia / 9.87 / 10 / 99 / Nil / 0 / -99
Registered care home - personal care / 9.87 / 65 / 642 / 564 / 57 / -78
Registered care home - nursing care / 9.87 / 40 / 395 / 492 / 50 / 97
Indicative levels of future provision of various forms of accommodation for older people – based on current supply levels and future population levels.
Tenure / 1,000 75+ 2026 / Suggested ratio per 1,000 of population 75+ / Suggested number of units 2026 / Current provision 2008 / Current ratio 2008 / Surplus / deficitConventional sheltered for rent / 16.39 / 50 / 820 / 750 / 76 / -70
Conventional sheltered leasehold / 16.39 / 75 / 1229 / 19 / 2 / -1210
Enhanced sheltered for rent / 16.39 / 10 / 164 / 154 / 16 / -10
Enhanced sheltered for sale / 16.39 / 10 / 164 / Nil / 0 / -164
Extra care sheltered for rent / 16.39 / 12.5 / 205 / Nil / 0 / -205
Extra care sheltered for sale / 16.39 / 12.5 / 205 / Nil / 0 / -205
Housing based provision for dementia / 16.39 / 10 / 164 / Nil / 0 / -164
Registered care home - personal care / 16.39 / 65 / 1065 / 564 / 57 / -501
Registered care home - nursing care / 16.39 / 40 / 656 / 492 / 50 / -164
Affordability in Wrexham
Affordable housing is defined by the Welsh Assembly Government as:
Housing where there are mechanisms in place to ensure that it is accessible to those who cannot afford market housing, both on first occupation and for subsequent occupiers.
Increasingly within the county Borough there are difficulties securing an adequate supply of affordable housing. This is due to:
· Decline in the supply of council housing due to right to buy and significant reduction in turn over in the last 5 years
· Inward migration
· Rising property values
The need to develop more good quality affordable housing is a key target in Wrexham’s Local Housing Strategy (2007-2012) and a key objective within the LDP Preferred Strategy Consultation Document 2007 to promote social progress – ‘there will be a plentiful supply of affordable, accessible and well designed housing’
The Wrexham Housing Needs Assessment 2006 made recommendations based on conditions and reasonable assumptions at that time. In the intervening period the North East Wales Housing Market Assessment (March 2008) supported the conclusions of the earlier studies. However, as in other parts of the UK, Wrexham’s housing market has been affected by the slowdown in house building, house sales and lower prices as a result of the ‘credit crunch’.