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Eagle’s Proposed Congressional Redistricting Map of Pennsylvania

After spending so much of 2011 writing and talking about Pennsylvania’s redistricting process, I decided to create my own Congressional map for the KeystoneState. This represents my best efforts to:

  1. make life easier for the SEPA incumbent Republicans, the NEPA incumbents and for Cong. Kelly in the 3rd
  2. create a winnable central PA seat (17th) that Cong. Holden does not live in
  3. while making the new 4th more competitive for Cong. Altmire’s GOP challenger.

Also, Cong. Platts’ 19th District becomes the 12th District.

The population levels of each district are very close to the ideal of 705.688, but since I did not have access to the most sophisticated mapping software, it’s not quite spot on. And the three Philadelphia-based districts – 1, 2 and 13 – are not close individually to that 705,688 number…but taken together, the three have the correct total population.

Eagle's Proposed PA Congressional Map

Figure 1

Some highlights:

  • Cong. Critz is thrown into a revamped (and GOP) 3rd district, which moves from a +6% Democrat registration district to +3.5% GOP district. (All figures here refer to registration.) Cong. Kelly gets his entire home county of Butler, and loses the city of Erie, but gains the bulk of CambriaCounty including Johnstown, but not the more GOP towns to the south. Kelly also picks up some of northeastern LawrenceCounty. Population: 705,341. STATS: 209,916-R; 193,404-D; 47,893-I.
  • The 4th District loses the ultra-Democrat Beaver County towns of Ambridge, Baden and Aliquippa -- that alone accounts for an 8,200 swing in GOP registration. Eagle’s 4th contains the north Hills in Allegheny County and the northern and eastern edges of Westmoreland County, the same areas of the Shenango Valley it has now and a little less of Lawrence. Finally, it extends into some of the better GOP towns in the southern arc below Johnstown. Population: 705,298.
  • The 5th District now includes a large portion of ErieCounty (including the city), gains all of Venango and loses Cameron and the more Democrat parts of ElkCounty (St. Marys). By losing TiogaCounty it is no longer in the Elmira, NY media market. It goes from a +7 to a +3% GOP registration district. Population: 703,720. STATS: 210,659-R; 198,101-D; 59,281-I.
  • The 6th District now contains most of Berks (outside Reading), extends into LebanonCounty and repositions into northern MontgomeryCounty, in addition to ChesterCounty. Population: 704,624.
  • The 7th District loses some of its Delco and ChesterCounty towns, reconfigures in MontgomeryCounty and now also stretches into southwestern LancasterCounty.
  • The 8th District contains all of BucksCounty, a strong GOP Ward in Philadelphia (66th), and some new MontgomeryCounty towns, including Telford, Souderton and parts of U. Dublin, Franconia, Montgomery Twp., U. Moreland, L. Moreland and Abington. The Montco portion of the 8th gets better in terms of GOP registration – from -19 to just -3. Overall registration of the 8th stays the same: R- 40.7%; D-44.7%; I-14.6%. Population: 711,639. STATS: 203,156-R; 222,971-D; 72,413-I.
  • The 9th District loses some of Franklin (but not Letterkenny) and Adams and gets reconfigured in Fayette, Greene and Clearfield. It also loses most of Cambria (and does not include Johnstown). Population: 704,884.
  • Holden loses half of his home county and is now in the 10th District, which moves from +7 GOP to + 11 GOP (by registration). Cong. Marino gets all of his home County (Lycoming) and also extends westward into Tioga, Potter, Cameron and some of Elk. Population: 705,029. STATS: 227,732-R; 178,892-D; 48,015-I.
  • Cong. Barletta’s 11th District gets 6.5% better (+3% more GOP and 3.5% less Democratic) but is still a Democrat district. Much of my state-wide map’s configuration is leveraged from his demonstrated ability to run sharp campaigns, raise large sums of money and appeal to conservative Democrats. This allows for the creation of a new 11th that loses Carbon, Columbia and Montour, but gains Sullivan, Wyoming and Pike counties and the balance of Luzerne; to its existing towns in Lackawanna most of the Clarks Summit/Abingtons gets added. Population: 705,018. STATS: 146,671-R; 239,576-D; 54,240-I.
  • Cong. Platts’ new 12th District is all of York, all of Cumberland (minus Shippensburg boro), and several towns in eastern Adams, including Hanover.
  • The 14th District includes the city of Pittsburgh and extends westward into Beaver and gets the town of Ambridge, Aliquippa and Baden. It then extends eastward into Westmoreland County where it wraps around and below the 18th District and dips slightly into Washington (includes Charleroi, Centerville, Donora, E. Bethlehem, Fallowfield, Monongahela, New Eagle, Amwel, part of city of Washington, part of S. Strabane), Fayette and Greene counties. It is packed with as many strong Democrat towns as possible. Population: 705,131.
  • To its LV base, Cong. Dent’s 15th District adds some additional towns in MontgomeryCounty, extends into Berks and also takes in one township in MonroeCounty. Population: 705,131.
  • The 16th District loses some of its ChesterCounty towns, and is sharply reduced in Berks to just Reading and a few other towns there. It now extends into Lebanon and contains the city of Lebanon. Population: 705,374.
  • The improved 17th District, now with no incumbent, stays in central Pa. but also picks up Union, Snyder and Juniata counties, as well as parts of Franklin and Northumberland – it goes from +4 Republican to +9; it’s 49% R, 40% D, 11% Ind. and includes just half of Schuylkill, a portion of Lebanon County and none of Berks. This is created to be a strong GOP pick-up seat. Population: 705,029. STATS: 199,772-R; 163,706-D; 47,091-I.
  • The 18th District gets slightly reconfigured in Washington and Westmoreland counties while keeping nearly all of the same towns in AlleghenyCounty – and it adds three towns in FayetteCounty. Overall, the district gets a few points more Democratic by registration, but given the pro-GOP tide sweeping southwestern Pennsylvania, this slight change should not impact Cong. Murphy’s re-election chances. 170,136-R; 255,819-D; 50,107-I. Population: 704,764.
  • Any questions or comments feel free to contact me via

-- Christopher Nicholas

Copyright, 2011, Eagle Consulting Group, Inc.

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