Annexure 1 Expected Change* in Variables in the Two Scenarios

Annexure 1 Expected change* in variables in the two scenarios

Variables / Bijapur / Chitradurga / Chikballapur / Mysore / Udupi
WP / BAU / WP / BAU / WP / BAU / WP / BAU / WP / BAU
Inorganic
inputs / (-)30% / (+)30% / (-)30% / (+)30% / (-)50% / (+)30% / (-)30% / (+)30% / (-)30% / (+)30%
Organic
inputs / (+)50% / (-)30% / (+)30% / (-)30% / (+)50% / (-)50% / (+)50% / (-)50% / (+)30% / (-)30%
Livestock / (+)20% / (-)20% / (+)20% / (-)20% / (+)10% / (-)10% / (+)20% / (-)20% / NS / NS
Biodiversity / (+)20% / (-)20% / (+)20% / (-)20% / NS / NS / (+)20% / (-)20% / NS / NS
Collective
activities / (+)10% / (-)10% / ------NS ------
Commer-
-cialisation / (-)20% / (+)20% / (-)10% / (+)10% / NS / NS / (-)20 / (+)20% / (-)10% / (+)10%
Food
security / (+)10% / (-)10% / (+)20% / (-)20% / NS / NS / (+)20% / (-)20% / (+)10% / (-)10%
Cropping
intensity / (+)20% / (+)20% / NS / NS / (+)10% / (+)10% / (+)20% / (+)10% / (+)10% / (+)10%
Cultivated
landholding / (+)10% / (+)10% / (+)10% / (+)10% / ------NS ------
Financial
independence / NS / NS / (+)20% / (-)20% / (+)10% / (-)10% / (+)20% / (-)20% / (+)10% / (-)10%
Education / ------NS------/ (+)10% / (+)10% / (+)10% / (+)10% / NS / NS

NS: No significant relationship found in equations (11,12,13)

WP = With policy

BAU = Business as usual

* All variables are measured as percentage changeemerged from the iterative validation process as described in section “Estimating the change in variables in the two scenarios”

Annexure 2 Acronyms, variables and measurements

Variables / Description / Quantification / Unit of measurement
∆E / Change in ecological index between 2006 and 2009 / Number
∆S / Difference between socio-cultural index of 2006 and 2009 / Number
∆F / Difference between economic index of 2006 and 2009 / Number
ANM / Livestock unit / #/acre
BD / Agro-biodiversity (species of crops, multipurpose trees, and domesticated animals) / Number of species/acre
CA / Collective activities / Number
CC / Proportion of area under commercial crop / %
CF / Consumption of home grown food / Kg/hh/year
CI / Cropping intensity / %
CULH / Total land cultivated / Acre/year
AD / Asset distribution / Range between high and low asset indices for a village
NDT / Probability of not having overdue loans / Probability based on logistic function for each district
EDU / Education / Number of years
IN / Net agricultural income / INR/acre/year
IINORG / Chemical fertilizer / Kg/acre/year
IORG / Organic fertilizer / Kg/acre/year
IRRG / Irrigated land / %
LH / Total landholding size / acre
SOC / Soil Organic Carbon / %
WQ / (Water EC)-1 / (d S/m)-1
CrSP / Crop species / Number
PlSP / Plantation species / Number
TrSP / Multipurpose tree species / Number

Annexure 3Determinants of change in indices in the study districts (for acronyms see Annexure 2)

* 10% level of significance and ** 5% level of significance

Bijapur:

Dependent variables / Coefficients of explanatory variables / Constant / R2
∆E / 0.04 CI / 0.94CA* / 0.21IORG* / 0.18ANM* / -0.32 / 0.46
∆S / -0.09 CULH** / 0.37CI / 0.03CrSP* / 0.04 PlSP* / 0.23SOC** / 0.05WQ** / 0.44 / 0.83
∆F1 / 0.06CULH** / 0.53IRRG** / -0.29 CI* / 0.21CA* / 0.44 CC* / 0.11 / 0.47
∆F2 / 9.45 IRRG* / -0.01 IINORG* / -18.90 CA** / 2.75 CrSP* / 1.80 PlSP* / 30.34 / 0.80

Chitradurga:

Dependent variables / Coefficients of explanatory variables / Constant / R2
∆E / -0.40CI* / 0.02 CULH* / 0.61NDT* / 0.34PlSP** / 0.03ANM* / 0.14 / 0.49
∆S / 0 94 IRRG* / 0.75CI* / 0.74CA** / -0.16 IINORG* / 0.88CC* / 1.00SOC* / 0.41 / 0.76
∆F1 / -0.16CULH* / -0.22IRRG* / -0.14CC* / 0.68 BD** / 0.18 WQ* / -0.02 ANM* / -0.03 / 0.51
∆F2 / -0.16 IRRG* / -0.21 CC* / 0.73 BD** / 0.18 WQ* / -0.01 / 0.45

Chikballapur:

Dependent variables / Coefficients of explanatory variables / Constant / R2
∆E / 0.11CULH** / -0.56CI** / 0.65CA* / 0.13TrSP** / 0.67 ANM* / 0.21 / 0.74
∆S / -0.11CI** / -0.20PlSP* / 0.07TrSP* / 0.34SOC* / -0.10BD* / 0.42 / 0.25
∆F1 / 0.03CULH** / 0.23IRRG* / -0.09CrSP* / 0.10 PlSP* / 0.04 BD* / 0.44 SOC** / 0.09 / 0.68
∆F2 / 0.05CULH** / 0.33IRRG* / -0.19CrSP* / 0.13 PlSP* / 0.11 BD* / 0.23 SOC* / 0.09 / 0.75

Mysore:

Dependent variables / Coefficients of explanatory variables / Constant / R2
∆E / 0.46NDT** / 0.23 CC* / -0.15CrSP * / 0.14TrSP* / 0.14 ANM* / -0.13 / 0.80
∆S / 0.69CC** / 0.10 CrSP* / -1.44PlSP** / 0.14TrSP* / 0.16 ANM* / -0.31 BD** / 0.43 / 0.80
∆F1 / -0.46 IRRG* / 0.10 CC* / 0.03ANM* / 0.06WQ** / 0.12 / 0.65
∆F2 / -0.46IRRG* / 0.09 CC* / 0.34ANM* / 0.06WQ** / 0.16 / 0.65

Udupi:

Dependent variables / Coefficients of explanatory variables / Constant / R2
∆E / 0.20 IRRG* / 0.26NDT* / 0.16 CA* / 1.29 CC** / -0.13 PlSP* / 0.40 / 0.70
∆S / 2.17NDT* / -0.04IINROG* / 1.43CrSP** / 0.79 PlSP** / 0.47BD* / -3.30 / 0.94
∆F1 / 0.03 CULH* / -0.02 IINORG* / -0.10 TrSP** / -0.03ANM* / 0.01 / 0.62
∆F2 / 0.15CC* / -0.11 TrSP** / -0.05 BD* / 0.16 / 0.61

Annexure 4 Simultaneous equations for the study districts*

Bijapur:

Equation1:

Equation 2:

Equation 3:

Chitradurga:

Equation1:

Equation 2:

Equation 3:

Chikballapur:

Equation1:

Equation 2:

Equation 3:

Mysore:

Equation1:

Equation 2:

Equation 3:

Udupi:

Equation1:

Equation 2:

Equation 3:

* Acronyms explained in Annexure 2

Annexure 5.Estimated values of indices under two scenarios in selected districts (with two variants of financial criterion)

Criteria / Bijapur / Chitradurga / Chikballapur / Mysore / Udupi
WP / BAU / WP / BAU / WP / BAU / WP / BAU / WP / BAU
E / 2.84 / 2.01 / 0.97 / 0.45 / 1.37 / 0.85 / 2.33 / 1.46 / 1.17 / 0.97
S / 1.40 / 0.62 / 1.94 / 2.08 / 1.51 / 0.97 / 2.27 / 1.42 / 1.67 / 1.78
F with IN1 / 1.36 / 0.52 / 0.81 / 0.47 / 0.76 / 0.21 / 2.37 / 1.40 / 0.58 / 0.42
Criteria / Bijapur / Chitradurga / Chikballapur / Mysore / Udupi
WP / BAU / WP / BAU / WP / BAU / WP / BAU / WP / BAU
E / 2.83 / 2.01 / 3.07 / 2.89 / 1.68 / 1.67 / 2.34 / 1.47 / 0.53 / 0.24
S / 1.72 / 1.76 / 1.22 / 1.22 / 1.58 / 1.03 / 2.27 / 1.43 / 1.62 / 1.73
F with IN2 / 1.72 / 0.77 / 1.74 / 1.60 / 0.94 / 0.39 / 2.38 / 1.41 / 0.33 / 0.29